O Estado e suas razões: o II PND

The State and its reasons: the 2nd PND. This paper intends to contribute to the debate on the reasons why the Geisel administration (1974-78) chose - as it faced an adverse conjuncture - an accelerated growth agenda which was materialized in the 2nd PND (National Development Plan). In order to do so, it resorts to a methodological definition which is based upon an institutionalist approach and favors the interaction between the political and the economic variables. Contradicting the literature that interprets the strong presence of the State and the regional decentralization of the 2nd PND as signs of neopatrimonialism, it is advocated that this category of analysis is inadequate to explain the government’s choice, although this aspect is embedded in the Brazilian social-historical formation. The political rationality of the plan must be investigated in the conjuncture itself, marked by the liberalization project, which does not clash with the plan’s economic rationality - on the contrary, it is complemented by it.

The Dutch disease and its neutralization: a Ricardian approach

The Dutch disease is a major market failure originated in the existence of cheap and abundant natural or human resources that keep overvalued the currency of a country for an undetermined period of time, thus turning non profitable the production of tradable goods using technology in the state-of-the-art. It is an obstacle to growth on the demand side, because it limits investment opportunities. The severity of the Dutch disease varies according to the extent of the Ricardian rents involved, i.e., according to the difference between two exchange rate equilibriums: the ‘current’ or market rate and the ‘industrial’ rate - the one that make viable efficient tradable industries. Its main symptoms, besides overvalued currency, are low rates of growth of the manufacturing industry, artificially high real wages, and unemployment. Its neutralization requires managing the exchange rate. The principal instrument for that is a sales or export tax on the commodities that give origin to the Dutch disease. In order to neutralize it policymakers face major political obstacles since it involves taxing exports and reducing wages. Finally, this papers argues that there is an extended concept of Dutch disease: besides having its origin in natural resources, it may arise from cheap labor provided that the ‘wage spread’ in the developing country is considerably larger than in the developed one - a condition that is usually present.

Há evidências de desindustrialização no Brasil?

Are There evidences of deindustrialization in Brazil? This paper aims at analyzing the theoretical concept of deindustrialization, and evaluating if Brazil, following the implementation of economic reforms in the 1990's, has suffered from a " new Dutch disease" . Despite the manufacturing sector declining participation in the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the empirical evidence show that the changes in the economy structure since the mid-1980’s to the end of 2005 should not be described as deindustrialization. Since there was not evidence of either generalized reallocation of resources towards industries based on natural resources, or a pattern of export specialization in goods technologically based on natural resources or even on labor, one cannot conclude that Brazil was infected by a " new Dutch disease" .

Banco Nacional: jogo de Ponzi, PROER e FCVS

Banco Nacional: Ponzi game, PROER and FCVS. This paper analyses the causes of the failure of Banco Nacional and the resolution method adopted by the Brazilian central bank. The program (PROER) designed by the central bank and its legal framework allowed the failed bank to buy " defaulted securities" , financed by the central bank, and to use them as borrowing collateral. The paper also analyses the private and social costs of this bank failure.

A nova disciplina de sistemas econômicos comparados: uma proposta

The new discipline of comparative economic systems: a proposition. This article offers elements for a reorientation of the subject matter of the discipline " Comparative Economic Systems" with the impact of the fall of the Berlin’s wall. Thus, we argue that in the context of the modern democratic society the political choice between society models occurs in a narrower set of options. Thus the study of pure forms of socialism is of historical interest, but he is not relevant to this discipline since it must prioritize the debate around the choice of compatible alternative models within the rule of law. So the article offers a new program for this discipline, able to describe and to understand the diversity of systems between countries that had opted for mixing market economy.

O circuito finance-investimento-poupança- funding em economias abertas

The finance-investment-savings-funding circuit in open economies. On monetary economies the Finance-Investment-Savings-Funding circuit (F-I-S-F) prevails. Investment precedes savings. This circuit was worked out for a closed economy. This study seeks to demonstrate that the circuit F-I-S-F also prevails for open economies. A second point studied in this paper relates the relationship between budget deficits and savings restriction for investment. Conclusions highlight that the circuit F-I-S-F prevails for open economies and that budget deficits do not cause savings restriction for investment. In some situations budget déficits transfer the effects of investment for national savings formation from domestic economy to the rest of the world.

A aventura da crítica

The adventure of the critic. The aim of this paper is to reply the critical observations made by Fernandes, Rego and Gala in this number of Revista de Economia Política about a paper of mine, also published in this same journal in January 2006, which deals with the relationship between Economics and Rethoric and its unfolding in Brazil. Answering these critical observations I have tried to show that: a) it is not easy, as they do, to associate Habermas’s project to the defense of the approach of Rethoric in Economics; Habermas himself has a lot of objections to the association of his project with Rorty’s pragmatism which seems to be the strongest McCloskey’s influence; b) it is not true that my considerations have a kind of epistemological immunity and that they are not liable to contestations; if it seems so it is because the nature of the materialistic approach itself. At the end I observe that my carpers didn’t reply my observations about the unfolding of the rethorical project in Brazil and that this is, at some measure, surprising, because they are central personages in it.

Metas inflacionárias: a análise convencional e um modelo alternativo

Inflation targeting: the conventional analysis and an alternative model. This article has two aims: the first one is to present a formal model of the monetary policy identified generally as "inflation targeting policy", an instrument of intervention of the central bank, through the short run nominal interest rate. The second aim is to discuss and criticize the theoretical assumptions of the model specially the concepts of "natural rate of interest" and of potential product presented by the "augmented Philips curve"; and to present a more realistic control of inflation targeting which does not assume the hypotheses above, and in which inflation targeting is based on the control of real rate of interest.

Sustainable development: conceptualizations and measurement

The paper builds up from a review of some expected, but other quite surprising results regarding country estimates for the year 2000 of genuine saving, a sustainability indicator developed by a World Bank research team. We examine this indicator, founded on neoclassical welfare theory, and discuss one of its major problems. Theoretical developments from ecological economics are then considered, together with insights from Georgescu-Roegen's approach to the production process, in search for an alternative approach. A model with potentially fruitful contributions in this direction is reviewed; it points the course efforts could take enable sustainability evaluations based on a more realistic set of interrelated monetary and biophysical indicators.

A América do Sul em movimento

South America in movement. This paper discusses the prospects for the integration of South America, stressing that there are two competing projects. One the one hand, we have the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), as proposed by Washington, or bilateral free trade agreements with the United States in the FTAA format. On the other hand, we have Mercosur, recently expanded by the accession of Venezuela. Washington's still very significant but declining influence in South America, relations between Argentina and Brazil, Venezuela's entry into Mercosur, and the role of smaller countries are successively examined.

'TINA', Aids, and the underdevelopment problem in Africa

The assumption that 'There Is No Alternative' (TINA) to capitalism as practiced in the United States of America and Western Europe has been the bane of aids effectiveness in assisting to solve the underdevelopment problem in Africa. This paper attempts to show that except there is a fundamental reorientation in the conceptualization of capitalism-free market and democracy-the underdevelopment problem would only be further complicated with aids.

O comportamento recente do investimento direto brasileiro no exterior em perspectiva

The recent behavior of the Brazilian direct investment abroad in perspective. This paper analyzes the recent behavior of the Brazilian direct investment abroad, as captured by an annual census conducted by the Central Bank of Brazil since 2001, by putting it in a broader perspective that includes international official data sources and early sample studies. Though the Central Bank has not been making available more disaggregated data than those analyzed here, it is intended to contribute to a better grasping of the perspectives of competitive internationalization of local firms, which is desirable not only as far as the external accounts are concerned, but also from the viewpoint of the technological capabilities of the local firms.

Trabalho infantil e o status ocupacional dos pais

Child labor and the parents' status of employment. The objective of this paper is to verify the hypothesis of the effect of the status of employment of the head of the family on the occurrence of child labor, as well as to analyze other characteristics which can influence such behavior. A probit model was used to realize the statistical tests. The results ratify the hypothesis proposed that the families whose head works as an independent worker show higher probability for the occurrence of child labor than those whose head works as a formal salaried worker. Among other results, it must be highlighted, making simulations, that increasing parents' schooling is more efficient than augmenting income to reduce the use of child labor. These results endorse the proposition that the status of employment should be used, complementing the criteria of income per capita, to select families in the cash transfers programmes or others to eradicate child labor.