363 resultados para Epidemiological parameters


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A mathematical model is proposed to analyze the effects of acquired immunity on the transmission of schistosomiasis in the human host. From this model the prevalence curve dependent on four parameters can be obtained. These parameters were estimated fitting the data by the maximum likelihood method. The model showed a good retrieving capacity of real data from two endemic areas of schistosomiasis: Touros, Brazil (Schistosoma mansoni) and Misungwi, Tanzania (S. haematobium). Also, the average worm burden per person and the dispersion of parasite per person in the community can be obtained from the model. In this paper, the stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity assumption in the model are assessed in terms of the epidemiological variables as follows. Regarded to the prevalence curve, we calculate the confidence interval, and related to the average worm burden and the worm dispersion in the community, the sensitivity analysis (the range of the variation) of both variables with respect to their parameters is performed.

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The high sensitivity and the possibility of automation of the enzyme-linked-immunosorbent-assay (ELISA) has indicated this technique as one of the most useful serological test for epidemiological studies. In the present study, an ELISA for detection of IgG antibodies against adult worm antigens (IgG-ELISA) was investigated for epidemiological purposes, in a rural area of the municipality of Itariri (São Paulo, Brazil). Blood on filter paper (1,180 samples) from about 650 schoolchildren were submitted to ELISA and the data compared to the results of the parasitological method of Kato-Katz and also to the IgM-IFT (immunofluorescence test for IgM antibodies to gut associated antigens). The prevalence rates respectively of 8.5%, 43.0%, and 56.2% by the Kato-Katz, IgG-ELISA, and IgM-IFT methods suggest the poor sensitivity of the parasitological method for detection of Schistosoma mansoni eggs in individuals with low worm burden, situation commonly observed in low endemic areas. These results can partially explain the poor degree of agreement between the IgG-ELISA and the Kato-Katz, as suggested by the Kappa index of 0.170. Otherwise, the Kappa index of 0.675 showed substantial agreement between the two serological tests. Some discrepancy of results between the two serological techniques must be better investigated.

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The incidence of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) before (1984-1988) and after (1989-1994), a nationwide intervention with VA-MENGOC-BC vaccination started in 1989, was compared. The prevaccination period incidence density (ID> 8.8/ 105 year-person) was higher than the postvaccination ID (ID< 6.5/ 105 year-person). The percentage proportional differences from the start to the end of each period of ID in the vaccinal period was higher (87%) than the prevaccinal (37%) with significant differences among vaccinated groups (< 25 years old). A break-point (Chow test) was confirmed by the decrease in the ID between 1989 and 1990 in children under 1 year old, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19 and 50-54 years. Comparison of ID using maps showed a decrease in IMD in all municipalities during the postvaccination period. These findings support the epidemiological impact of VA-MENGOC-BC vaccination in the reduction of IMD morbidity.

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There are two vectors of Chagas disease in Chile: Triatoma infestans and Mepraia spinolai. We studied the feeding behavior of these species, looking for differences which could possibly explain the low impact of the latter species on Chagas disease. Both species used thermal cues to locate their feeding source and consumed a similar volume of blood which was inversely related to the body weight before the meal and directly related to the time between meals. The average time between bites were 6.24 and 10.74 days. The average bite of M. spinolai lasted 9.68 min, significantly shorter than the 19.46 min for T. infestans. Furthermore, while T. infestans always defecated on the host, this behavior was observed in M. spinolai in only one case of 27 (3.7%). The delay between the bites and defecation was very long in M. spinolai and short in T. infestans. These differences may affect the reduced efficiency of transmission of Chagas infection by M. spinolai.

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Three different periods may be considered in the evolution of knowledge about the clinical and epidemiological aspects of Chagas disease since its discovery: (a) early period concerning the studies carried out by Carlos Chagas in Lassance with the collaboration of other investigators of the Manguinhos School. At that time the disease was described and the parasite, transmitters and reservoirs were studied. The coexistence of endemic goiter in the same region generated some confusion about the clinical forms of the disease; (b) second period involving uncertainty and the description of isolated cases, which lasted until the 1940 decade. Many acute cases were described during this period and the disease was recognized in many Latin American countries. Particularly important were the studies of the Argentine Mission of Regional Pathology Studies, which culminated with the description of the Romaña sign in the 1930 decade, facilitating the diagnosis of the early phase of the disease. However, the chronic phase, which was the most important, continued to be difficult to recognize; (c) period of consolidation of knowledge and recognition of the importance of Chagas disease. Studies conducted by Laranja, Dias and Nóbrega in Bambuí updated the description of Chagas heart disease made by Carlos Chagas and Eurico Villela. From then on, the disease was more easily recognized, especially with the emphasis on the use of a serologic diagnosis; (d) period of enlargement of knowledges on the disease. The studies on denervation conducted in Ribeirão Preto by Fritz Köberle starting in the 1950 decade led to a better understanding of the relations between Chagas disease and megaesophagus and other visceral megas detected in endemic areas.

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Biological parameters of Triatoma brasiliensis and T. pseudomaculata that could influence the epidemiological importance of these insects as vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi were compared. The parameters studied were incubation period, interval between hatching or moulting and first feeding, number of blood meals, development time, mortality, net reproductive rate, instantaneous daily reproductive rate, time-lapse before starting feeding, duration of feeding, blood ingestion capacity, occurrence of defecation and blood ingestion velocity. Most aspects of feeding were similar for the two species, although T. pseudomaculata had a longer life cycle than T. brasiliensis producing one and two generations per year, respectively. The two species had similar instantaneous daily rates of population growth.

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The life cycle of Clerada apicicornis was determined under laboratory conditions. Mean development times in days were: egg 27.2, nymph I 12.5, nymph II 12, nymph III 13.4, nymph IV 16.4, nymph V 26. The life expectancy of adults ranged from 117 to 317 days (mean 196 days). Based on a cohort of 29 females of C. apicicornis, a horizontal life table was constructed. The following predictive parameters were obtained: net rate of reproduction (Ro = 48.31), intrinsic rate of population increase (r m = 0.153), generation time (Tc = 28.20 weeks), and finite rate of population increment (lambda = 1.16). The reproductive value (Vx) for each age class of the cohort females was calculated. The following observed parameters were calculated after mortality in each stage: net rate of reproduction (R'o=13.4), intrinsic rate of population increase (r c' =0.09 ), and finite rate of population increment (lambda' =1.1). The generation time (Tc' =27.4) was estimated using the methods of Laughlin and Bengstron. A vertical life table was elaborated and mortality was described for one generation of the cohort.

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Predictions that deforestation would reduce American cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence have proved incorrect. Presentations at a recent international workshop, instead, demonstrated frequent domestication of transmission throughout Latin America. While posing new threats, this process also increases the effectiveness of vector control in and around houses. New approaches for sand fly control and effective targeting of resources are reviewed.

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The combination of molecular and conventional epidemiological methods has improved the knowledge about the transmission of tuberculosis in urban populations. To examine transmission of tuberculosis in Havana, Cuba, with DNA fingerprinting, we studied 51 out of 92 Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains isolated from tuberculosis patients who resided in Havana and whose infection was culture-confirmed in the period from September 1997 to March 1998. Isolates from 28 patients (55%) had unique IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) patterns, while isolates from 23 others (45%) had identical patterns and belonged to 7 clusters. Three clusters consisting of six, five and two cases were each related to small outbreaks that occurred in a closed setting. Three other clustered cases were linked to a large outbreak that occurred in another institution. Younger patients were more correlated to clustering than older ones. The finding that 45% of the isolates had clustered RFLP patterns suggests that recent transmission is a key factor in the tuberculosis cases in Havana. The IS6110 RFLP typing made it possible to define the occurrence of outbreaks in two closed institutions.

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A group of 52 villagers was followed-up for three years regarding Schistosoma mansoni infection. All villagers were periodically surveyed by the Kato-Katz method. In March 1997 and March 1998 the positives were treated with oxamniquine (15-20 mg/kg), and in March 1999, with praziquantel (60 mg/kg). All infection indices decreased substantially between March 1999 and March 2000: prevalence of infection (from 32.7% to 21.2%), prevalence of moderate/heavy infection (from 7.7% to 1.9%), intensity of infection (from 23.1 epg to 7.4 epg) and reinfection (from 35.7% to 14.3%). Negativation increased from 53.8 to 82.4. An optimistic prognostic is assumed in the short term for the introduction of praziquantel in the study area.

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The presence of anti-Toxoplasma gondii IgM and IgG antibodies was studied in samples of blood serum taken from eighty dogs with nervous symptoms at the Serviço de Enfermidades Infecciosas dos Animais, Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia, Unesp, Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil. The frequency of IgG titers were 16 (13.7%), 64 (13.7%), and 256 (5%), and for IgM titers were 16 (7.5%), 64 (15%), and 256 (8.7%). Positive reactions were more frequent in the older animals, males, from a rural environment, in constant contact with small animals, principally birds and rodents. There was a higher frequency of a positive reaction in dogs fed with kitchen food, especially in those fed with raw ingredients. The most common neurological pictures were alterations in consciousness, in movement, and in the hand-cart test. The percentage of reagents with specific IgM antibodies was high, indicating active infections, but the possibility of co-infection with the distemper virus can not be discarded, and this may be a predisposing factor for toxoplasmosis infection, once the distemper virus has a potent immunosupressive action.

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From November 1996 to March 2000, a total of 884 children between 0 and 15 years, from 11 institutions including day care centres, public urban and public rural schools in Uberlândia, State of Minas Gerais, central Brazil, were examined for head louse infestation. Children's sex, race, age and some hairs characteristics were shown to be associated to parasite infestation. A prevalence rate of 35% was found and the highest rates were observed in black, female children, with long, dark, wavy hairs. Hairs density and thickness did not seem to influence significantly the distribution of this pediculosis in Uberlândia's schoolchildren. Differences observed between the prevalence rates of head lice in children from the urban institutions suggest there is a greater epidemiological heterogeneity in this group when compared to the rural schoolchildren.

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Some demographic and epidemiological patterns of the rural population of Monte Negro, locality situated in the State of Rondônia (Brazil), Western Amazonia, are described based on a sample of 924 randomly selected individuals, approximately 10% of the whole population. The main features of this sample are (1) the illiteracy rates in the parental generation were 23% for fathers and 20% for mothers. Among children, this figure dropped to 6%; (2) housing in Monte Negro is characterized by being constructed with wood (92%), and also a floor (75%). Nevertheless, only 32% of these houses had electric energy; (3) the mean ages for the parental generation were 41.9 for males and 36.3 for females. These values for the offspring generation were 12.2 and 10.5, respectively; (4) the sex-ratio of the offspring generation was 1.32;(5) the bioassay of kinship was estimated as .033 for this long range migrant population; (6) the prevalence of some macrophage dependent infectious disease was conspicuously high; (7) the reported number of malarial episodes among males and females was statistically different, suggesting that malaria may be, in part, a "professional" disease; (8) the prevalence of serum-positive reactions against B-hepatitis is distressing. It has a strong age dependence and reaches 74% among adult males. Conversely, signs of active infection (AgHbs) rises to 16% among children.