227 resultados para Logistic Epidemic
Resumo:
In Brazil relatively little attention is being paid to the study of the features of the spread of the AIDS epidemic towards small cities and rural areas. We report a descriptive study on the epidemiological features of HIV infection among 208 adult patients seen between July 1999 and May 2006 in the municipal HIV/AIDS Programs of three cities of inner Rio de Janeiro State: Saquarema, Santo Antonio de Pádua and Miracema. A portrait of a heterosexual epidemic emerged, with an overall male to female ratio of 1.1. More than 90% were residents of the studied cities, demonstrating a local demand for HIV-related assistance and the importance of municipal HIV/AIDS Programs. Past or current use of snorted cocaine was reported by a quarter of the patients. Older age and male gender were independent predictors of having a diagnosis of AIDS at presentation. The latter is in accordance with a more recent wave of epidemic spread towards female gender. A low frequency of male circumcision, an important determinant of heterosexual HIV transmission, was recorded. Almost 60% of the patients first presented in advanced stages of HIV infection, suggesting the existence of a large pool of undiagnosed cases in the community.
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Burn mortality statistics may be misleading unless they account properly for the many factors that can influence outcome. Such estimates are useful for patients and others making medical and financial decisions concerning their care. This study aimed to define the clinical, microbiological and laboratorial predictors of mortality with a view to focus on better burn care. Data were collected using independent variables, which were analyzed sequentially and cumulatively, employing univariate statistics and a pooled, cross-sectional, multivariate logistic regression to establish which variables better predict the probability of mortality. Survivors and non-survivors among burn patients were compared to define the predictive factors of mortality. Mortality rate was 5.0%. Higher age, larger burn area, presence of fungi in the wound, shorter length of stay and the presence of multi-resistant bacteria in the wound significantly predicted increased mortality. The authors conclude that those patients who are most apt to die are those with age > 50 years, with limited skin donor sites and those with multi-resistant bacteria and fungi in the wound.
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The AIDS epidemic has become a worldwide phenomenon of enormous magnitude and extension, deeply transforming medical practices and public health initiatives. This retrospective survey aimed to analyze clinical and epidemiological characteristics of patients with HIV/AIDS admitted to the Institute of Tropical Diseases Natan Portella, Teresina, Piauí, Brazil, from January, 2001 through December, 2004. Of the 828 patients, 43% were from other states and 71.3% were men. Average patient age was 35.4 ± 11.5 years-old and 85.5% were illiterate or had primary education. The main form of exposure to HIV was heterosexual behavior (54.1%), while injectable drug use was confirmed by only 2.7% of registered cases. The most frequent infectious complications were candidiasis (42.4%) and pneumocystosis (22.2%). Sixty-eight cases (8.2%) of visceral leishmaniasis were registered. Using multivariate analysis, individuals aged over 40 years-old, patients with active tuberculosis, Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia and central nervous system cryptococcosis showed increased risk of death. In this study, young male adults with low educational levels predominated and the most frequent opportunistic infections were candidiasis and pneumocystosis.
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In South Brazil the circulation of two HIV-1 subtypes with different characteristics represents an important scenario for the study of the impact of HIV-1 diversity on the evolution of the HIV-1 epidemic and AIDS disease. HIV-1 B, the predominant variant in industrialized countries and HIV-1 C, the most prevalent subtype in areas with rapid epidemic growth, are implicated in most infections. We evaluated blood samples from 128 antiretroviral (ARV) naïve patients recruited at entry to the largest HIV outpatient service in Porto Alegre. Based on partial pol region sequencing, HIV-1 C was observed in 29%, HIV-1 B in 22.6% and, the recently identified CRF31_BC, in 23.4% of 128 volunteers. Other variants were HIV-1 F in 10% and other mosaics in 5.5%. In order to evaluate the association of socio-behavioral characteristics and HIV-1 subtypes, interviews and laboratory evaluation were performed at entry. Our data suggest an established epidemic of the three major variants, without any evidence of partitioning in either of the subgroups analyzed. However, anal sex practices were associated with subtype B, which could indicate a greater transmissibility of non-B variants by vaginal intercourse. This study provides baseline information for epidemiologic surveillance of the changes of the molecular characteristics of HIV-1 epidemics in this region.
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American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) occurs in epidemic outbreaks and in sporadic cases with small annual variation in the Pontal of Paranapanema, SP. There is little research on the sandfly fauna of this region. The last outbreaks were related to the Movement of the Landless Workers (MST) and with the ecological tourism in preserved forest of the Parque Estadual do Morro do Diabo (PEMD). AIM: identification of the sandfly fauna within the PEMD, mainly anthropophilic species already incriminated as vectors of ACL, as well as their seasonality, hourly frequency and data of the behavior. M&M: The captures were undertaken with CDC light and Shannon traps from 6:00 pm to 10:00 pm, monthly from May 2000 to December 2001. The temperature and relative humidity data were registered at hourly intervals. RESULTS: The captured species were: Brumptomyia brumpti, Nyssomyia neivai, Nyssomyia whitmani, Pintomyia fischeri and Pintomyia pessoai. The P. pessoai predominated (34.39%) and N. neivai was less found (0.74%), only being captured in CDC traps. Shannon trap captured more sandflies (63.01%) than the CDC traps (36.99%). Despite the environmental degradation anthropophilic species, indicates favorable bioecological conditions for persistence of vectors and potential transmission of leishmaniasis.
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INTRODUCTION: Cryptococcosis has become an important entity due to the epidemic of AIDS and therefore it is a significant opportunistic infection. However, there are case reports of cryptococcal meningitis in immune competent pregnant women. Since pregnancy is considered a period of relative immunosuppression, which likely prevents fetal rejection, this could explain the occurrence of opportunistic infections. OBJECTIVE: To report a case of cryptococcosis, and review all cases involving pregnancy and neurocryptococcal infection in immune competent pregnant patients. METHODS: Case report and systematic review of the literature using the MEDLINE and SciELO databases. DISCUSSION: A total of 27 patients were analyzed from 19 studies. The mean age at diagnosis was 26.4 years. There were six patients in their first trimester of pregnancy, 10 in the second, eight in the third and three post-partum. The most prevalent symptoms were headache (85.2%), altered vision (44.4%), altered mental status (44.4%), nausea (40.7%) and fever (33.3%). There were nine deaths (33.3%). Most of the patients received intravenous amphotericin B as treatment (77.8%). The majority (66.6%) of the patients accomplished a term delivery with healthy infants. CONCLUSION: Cryptococcal meningitis should be considered during pregnancy in cases of unexplained headache, altered vision, altered mental status, nausea and fever. Patients with a confirmed diagnosis should be admitted and treated with amphotericin B.
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Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been known to occur in the state of Piauí since 1934. The typically rural disease began to appear in urban areas over time, being concentrated mainly in Teresina, the capital of Piauí. Teresina was also affected by the first urban epidemic of VL in Brazil. Over 1,000 cases of the disease were reported during urbanization (1981-1986). Human population growth and migration led to land occupation on the outskirts of Teresina. These factors have contributed to vector proliferation, increasing the incidence of VL. At present, the incidence of human and canine disease is quite high and uncontrolled in Piauí. It seems that some measures, such as the elimination of seropositive dogs, failed to significantly reduce the number of new VL cases in Teresina. Despite previously conducted studies, little is known about VL epidemiology in urban areas. The aim of this review is to reveal the situation of VL in Teresina during the last 40 years, focusing on the major factors that may contribute to the high incidence and persistence of VL infection.
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The aim of this article is to identify patterns in spatial distribution of cases of dengue fever that occurred in the municipality of Cruzeiro, State of São Paulo, in 2006. This is an ecological and exploratory study using the tools of spatial analysis in the preparation of thematic maps with data from Sinan-Net. An analysis was made by area, taking as unit the IBGE census, the analysis included four months in 2006 which show the occurrence of the disease in the city. The thematic maps were constructed by TerraView 3.3.1 software, the same software provided the values of the indicators of Global Moran (I M) every month and the Kernel estimation. In the year 2006, 691 cases of dengue were georeferenced (with a rate of 864.2 cases/100,000 inhabitants); the indicators of Moran and p-values obtained were I M = 0.080 (March) p = 0.11; I M = 0.285 (April) p = 0.01; I M = 0.201 (May) p = 0.01 and I M = 0.002 (June) p = 0.57. The first cases were identified in the Northeast and Central areas of Cruzeiro and the recent cases, in the North, Northeast and Central. It was possible to identify census tracts where the epidemic began and how it occurred temporally and spatially in the city.
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Parasitic infection is one of the problems that affect human health, especially in developing countries. In this study, all of the fast food shops, restaurants, and roast meat outlets of Khorramabad (Western Iran) and all the staff employed by them, some 210 people, were selected through a census and their stools were examined for the presence of parasites. The parasitological tests of direct wet-mount, Lugol's iodine staining, formaldehyde-ether sedimentation and Trichrome staining techniques were performed on the samples. The data was analyzed with a chi-square test and logistic regression was selected as the analytical model. The results showed 19 (9%) stool specimens were positive for different intestinal parasites. These intestinal parasites included Giardia lamblia2.9%, Entamoeba coli 4.3%, Blastocystis sp. 1.4%, and Hymenolepis nana 0.5%. There was a significant difference between the presence of a valid health card, awareness of transmission of intestinal parasites, participation in training courses in environmental health with intestinal parasites (p < 0.05). No statistically significant difference was found between the rate of literacy and gender among patients infected with intestinal parasites (p > 0.05). To control parasitic infection in food handlers, several strategies are recommended such as stool examinations every three months, public education, application of health regulations, controlling the validity of health cards and training on parasitic infection transmission. In this regard, the findings of the present study can be used as a basis to develop preventive programs targeting food handlers because the spread of disease via them is a common problem worldwide.
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With the objective to evaluate the behavior of paracoccidioidomycosis in the last three decades, clinical and epidemiological data of 595 patients admitted to clinical services of the Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul from 1980 to 2009 were investigated. Gender, age distribution, clinical form, comorbidity with tuberculosis or AIDS, and mortality were compared by decades of clinical admission. It was shown that during the three decades there was a decrease in women percentage, and the same manner occurred a reduction in participants in the age group of 20 to 39 years. Moreover, the acute/subacute forms have been diminished in the period. These fluctuations are closely related and can be simultaneously analyzed. Increased AIDS co-infection prevalence from the first to the second decade was also revealed, coinciding with the appearance of the retroviral epidemic and stabilizing during the third decade. No change in the tuberculosis co-infection rate was observed (overall = 6.9%). It reinforces the importance of this co-morbidity. The overall mortality rate remained steady at 6.7%, not varying significantly from one decade to another. The persistent mortality rate calls attention to the importance of this neglected disease.
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Despite the effectiveness of combination antiretroviral therapy in the treatment of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), nonadherence to medication has become a major threat to its effectiveness. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of self-reported irregular use of antiretroviral therapy and the factors associated with such an irregularity in PLWHA. A cross-sectional study of PLWHA who attended two referral centers in the city of Recife, in Northeastern Brazil, between June 2007 and October 2009 was carried out. The study analyzed socioeconomic factors, social service support and personal habits associated with nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy, adjusted by multivariable logistic regression analysis. The prevalence of PLWHA who reported irregular use of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) was 25.7%. In the final multivariate model, the irregular use of cART was associated with the following variables: being aged less than 40 years (OR = 1.66, 95%-CI: 1.29-2.13), current smokers (OR = 1.76, 95%-CI: 1.31-2.37) or former smokers (OR = 1.43, 95%-CI: 1.05-1.95), and crack cocaine users (OR = 2.79, 95%-CI: 1.24-6.32). Special measures should be directed towards each of the following groups: individuals aged less than 40 years, smokers, former smokers and crack cocaine users. Measures for giving up smoking and crack cocaine should be incorporated into HIV-control programs in order to promote greater adherence to antiretroviral drugs and thus improve the quality of life and prolong life expectancy.
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We describe the rate of incidence of Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea (CDAD) in hematologic and patients undergone stem cell transplant (HSCT) at HC-FMUSP, from January 2007 to June 2011, using two denominators 1,000 patient and 1,000 days of neutropenia and the risk factors associated with the severe form of the disease and death. The ELISA method (Ridascreen-Biopharm, Germany) for the detections of toxins A/B was used to identify C. difficile. A multivariate analysis was performed to evaluate potential factors associated with severe CDAD and death within 14 days after the diagnosis of CDAD, using multiple logistic regression. Sixty-six episodes were identified in 64 patients among 439 patients with diarrhea during the study period. CDA rate of incidence varied from 0.78 to 5.45 per 1,000 days of neutropenia and from 0.65 to 5.45 per 1,000 patient-days. The most common underlying disease was acute myeloid leukemia 30/64 (44%), 32/64 (46%) patients were neutropenic, 31/64 (45%) undergone allogeneic HSCT, 61/64 (88%) had previously used antibiotics and 9/64 (13%) have severe CDAD. Most of the patients (89%) received treatment with oral metronidazole and 19/64 (26%) died. The independent risk factors associated with death were the severe form of CDAD, and use of linezolid.
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This study evaluated epidemiological factors for HCV infection associated with sharing perforating and cutting instruments among candidates for blood donation (CBD) in the city of Belém, Pará, Brazilian Amazon. Two definitions of HCV infection cases were used: anti-HCV positivity shown by EIA, and HCV-RNA detection by PCR. Infected and uninfected CBD completed a questionnaire about possible risk factors associated with sharing perforating and cutting instruments. The information was evaluated using simple and multiple logistic regressions. Between May and November 2010, 146 (1.1%) persons with anti-HCV antibodies and 106 (0.8%) with HCV-RNA were detected among 13,772 CBD in Belém. Risk factors associated with HCV infection based on the EIA (model 1) and PCR (model 2) results were: use of needles and syringes sterilized at home; shared use of razors at home, sharing of disposable razors in barbershops, beauty salons etc.; and sharing manicure and pedicure material. The models of HCV infection associated with sharing perforating and cutting instruments should be taken into account by local and regional health authorities and by those of other countries with similar cultural practices, in order to provide useful information to guide political and public strategies to control HCV transmission.
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Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the extremely common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou, southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its increased incidence. In this study, it was used an ecological study plus the negative binomial regression to identify the epidemic status of HFMD and its relationship with meteorological variables. During 2008-2012, a total of 173,524 HFMD confirmed cases were reported, 12 cases of death, yielding a fatality rate of 0.69 per 10,000. The annual incidence rates from 2008 to 2012 were 60.56, 132.44, 311.40, 402.76, and 468.59 (per 100,000), respectively, showing a rapid increasing trend. Each 1 °C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 9.47% (95% CI 9.36% to 9.58%) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a one hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 7.53% (95% CI -7.60% to -7.45%). Similarly, each one percent rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 1.48% or 3.3%, and a one meter per hour rise in wind speed corresponded to an increase of 2.18% or 4.57%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases, depending on the variables considered in the model. These findings revealed that epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on the incidence of HFMD.
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The dengue virus (DENV), which is frequently involved in large epidemics, and the yellow fever virus (YFV), which is responsible for sporadic sylvatic outbreaks, are considered the most important flaviviruses circulating in Brazil. Because of that, laboratorial diagnosis of acute undifferentiated febrile illness during epidemic periods is frequently directed towards these viruses, which may eventually hinder the detection of other circulating flaviviruses, including the Saint Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV), which is widely dispersed across the Americas. The aim of this study was to conduct a molecular investigation of 11 flaviviruses using 604 serum samples obtained from patients during a large dengue fever outbreak in the state of Mato Grosso (MT) between 2011 and 2012. Simultaneously, 3,433 female Culex spp. collected with Nasci aspirators in the city of Cuiabá, MT, in 2013, and allocated to 409 pools containing 1-10 mosquitoes, were also tested by multiplex semi-nested reverse transcription PCR for the same flaviviruses. SLEV was detected in three patients co-infected with DENV-4 from the cities of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande. One of them was a triple co-infection with DENV-1. None of them mentioned recent travel or access to sylvatic/rural regions, indicating that transmission might have occurred within the metropolitan area. Regarding mosquito samples, one pool containing one Culex quinquefasciatus female was positive for SLEV, with a minimum infection rate (MIR) of 0.29 per 1000 specimens of this species. Phylogenetic analysis indicates both human and mosquito SLEV cluster, with isolates from genotype V-A obtained from animals in the Amazon region, in the state of Pará. This is the first report of SLEV molecular identification in MT.