Por que a poupança externa não promove crescimento

Why foreign saving fail to cause growth. The present paper is a formalization of the critique of the growth with foreign savings strategy. Although medium income countries are capital poor, current account deficits (foreign savings), financed either by loans or by foreign direct investments, will not usually increase the rate of capital accumulation or will have little impact on it in so far as current account deficits will be associated with appreciated exchange rates, artificially increased real wages and salaries and high consumption levels. In consequence, the rate of substitution of foreign savings for domestic savings will be relatively high, and the country will get indebted to consume, not to invest and grow. Only when there are large investment opportunities, stimulated by a sizeable difference between the expected profit rate and the long term interest rate, the marginal propensity to consume will get down enough so that the additional income originated from foreign capital flows will be used for investment rather than for consumption. In this special case, the rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings tend to be small, and foreign savings will contribute positively to growth.

Fluxos de capitais, fragilidade externa e regimes cambiais: uma revisão teórica

Capital Flows, External Fragility and Currency Regimes: A Theoretical Review. The major integration and deregulation of the international financial markets increased the degree of interdependence and risk of incompatibility between the financial and monetary policy adopted by different countries. The consequences of these facts are the financial instability and the currency crisis. In this article we develop arguments advocating that independent of the currency regime adopted the national policy makers should take into account, between other factors, the major capital mobility and the integrations of markets. One of the corollaries of our analyses is that countries should pursue policies that reduces the degree of short-term capital volatile by the adoption of capital controls or though measures of prudential supervision.

Crescimento econômico e liquidez externa no Brasil após 1970

Economic growth and foreign liquidity in Brazil after 1970. This paper assesses the relationship between the capital account and the Brazilian economic growth according to balance-of-payments constraint approach. The Thirlwall (1979)'s simple rule is extended to take into consideration capital account and several empirical evidence using time series analysis are shown. Conversely to the simple rule when fitted rates of balance-of-payment equilibrium economic growth average bellow the observed ones, fitted rates of growth using the rule extended to international liquidity are consistently greater than the observed ones. It is fair to conclude that, first, the Brazilian economy grows better during abundant international liquidity and, second, the economy sub utilizes such advantage growing far less than it could grow.

Metas de inflação, taxa de câmbio real e crise externa num modelo kaleckiano

Inflation target, real exchange rate and external crisis in a Kaleckian model. Which role should the real exchange rate play in an inflation target regime? In this paper this point is discussed from the point of view of the conditions required for avoiding an external crisis. With this objective, a dynamic Kaleckian model is presented focusing on the stability of the external debt to capital ratio. The main conclusion is that policy makers should monitor closely the evolution of the real exchange rate in order to make compatible the inflation target regime with external stability.

Integração financeira, poupança externa e convergência de renda: teoria e evidência

The conventional argument favoring capital controls elimination is based on the predictions from the neoclassical model: free international capital mobility would allow capital flows from country where capital is abundant to countries where capital is scarce and the outcome in a global perspective is efficient allocation of savings and income convergence. Within this perspective, financial integration would be particularly beneficial for developing countries resulting in external savings import, temporary increase in per-capita GDP growth rate and a permanent increase in the per-capita GDP level. Using data for a sample of 105 countries from 1980 to 2004 the evidences show that capitals flows from developing to developed countries and that international financial integration and external savings do not increase the conditional convergence rate.

Teorias do comércio internacional: um debate sobre a relação entre crescimento econômico e inserção externa

Theories of international trade: a debate on the relationship between economic growth and foreign market insertion. The paper analyzes the importance accorded to the high technology industry sector in the process of economic growth, in its relation to international trade. Considering at first liberal arguments that disregard productive and commercial specialization as a cause of unequal economic development, the paper discusses then some institutionalist and evolutionist arguments which, since List, stress that high technology specialization matters for the rate of increase of productivity and for the surmount for foreign exchange restrictions to growth.

Competitividade e restrição externa na Zona do Euro

The recent debt crisis in Greece, Ireland and Portugal has exposed the fragility existing in the Eurozone for promoting development and economic convergence between the countries that have adopted the currency. Way beyond the fear of insolvency, what is observed is a growing disparity of the most-developed countries in comparison to the less-developed ones, with perverse consequences for the last ones. Once the nominal exchange rates are fixed, the divergent movements in relative prices and wages between the countries have led to totally distinct paths for the real exchange rates. Worsening the scenario, one can observe the incompleteness of the political union, the monetarist focus of the ECB and the lack of labor mobility between the countries, what distances from the argument stated by the theory and puts in jeopardize the future of the Monetary Union.

A taxa de câmbio real e a restrição externa: uma proposta de releitura com elasticidades endógenas

This paper investigates a topic of the agenda about growth models, emphasizing the elaboration of an external constrained model with endogenous elasticity, with an emphasis on real exchange rate level as main tool for the economic development. The model is anchored in Kaldor, Thirlwall and Barbosa Filho's models and it will demonstrate that external constraint changes in the course of time.

Vulnerabilidade externa e composição da posição internacional de investimentos: Brasil 2001-2010

The aim of this paper is to indicate that there was a significant change in the composition of the Brazilian International Investment Position in the period 2001-2010: international reserves became higher than the external debt and decreased the share of foreign liabilities denominated in foreign currency, getting smaller that the participation of the external liabilities denominated in domestic currency. These tend to suffer a double devaluation (prices and exchange rates) in times of crisis, thus characterizing the reduction of the external vulnerability in the financial sphere as evidenced in the global crisis hatched in 2008.