Política industrial e desenvolvimento

This paper aims at contributing to the debate on industrial policy and economic development in Brazil. At first, theoretical approaches that support industrial policy-making are discussed, with emphasis on the neoschumpeterian/evolutionary approach, which focuses on innovation as prime mover of economic development and on the co-evolution of technologies, institutions, and industries and firms structures. Next, such an approach is applied to explain some successful experiences of industrial policy-making and economic development in Brazil up to the end of the 1970s, and the failures to implement such a policy from the 1980s onwards. Finally, the present government industrial policy is evaluated, arguing that although it has some positive aspects like the focus on innovation, clearly defined targets and a new institutional organization, it fails as an economic development policy because of weaknesses such as incompatibility with macroeconomic policy, inconsistencies of policy instruments, deficiencies in infrastructure and in the science, technology and innovation system, and lack of coordination and political drive.

Concorrência e mudança técnica: aportes e limites dos modelos neo-schumpeterianos evolucionários de dinâmica industrial

This paper makes a critical survey of some recent evolutionary economic literature dealing with industrial dynamics. Although the evolutionary models of industrial dynamics has explored the relationships among market structure and the innovation process within an analytical context that emphasize non-linearity, behavioral asymmetries and the existence of selective process in the competitive dynamics of markets, have been capable of offering compatible results with industrial organization stylized facts, a lot of limitations in technical change description pointed out have able to alter in a crucial way the results attained.

Política industrial e compromissos críveis: uma proposta de análise e de ação governamental

This paper analyses the question of the counterparts that governments should claim from firms and/or economic sectors supported by vertical industrial policy. This is a discussion that still have to advance because everything indicate that the set of current counterparts (goals of costs, productivity, exportation, etc.) still may be increased and improved, what will facilitate the assessment of industrial policy execution by society and the verification of its efficacy in order to yielding more possibilities of economic growth for a country or region. To reinforce the commitment credibility of the agents supported by industrial policy, this paper proposes to maintain the counterparts meant before and that such agents will be stimulated to commit specific assets in their activities that are supported by govern. It is shown that, without use more public resources than the used currently, this new counterpart may reinforce substantially the incentives that the firms supported by vertical industrial policy have it to execute the traditional counterparts assumed by them, and with it guarantee the best possible use of public resources.

The death and resurrection of 'economics with psychology': remarks from a methodological standpoint

One of the merits of contemporary economic analysis is its capacity to offer accounts of choice behavior that dispense with details of the complex decision machinery. The starting point of this paper is the concern with the important methodological debate about whether economics might offer accurate predictions and explanations of actual behavior without any reference to psychological presuppositions. Inspired by an exercise of rational reconstruction of ideas, I aim to offer an interpretation of the process of freeing economic analysis from psychology at the end of the 19th century and the contemporary resurrection of behavioral approaches in the late 1980s.

The industrial equilibrium exchange rate in Brazil: an estimation

This paper presents a methodology for calculating the industrial equilibrium exchange rate, which is defined as the one enabling exporters of state-of-the-art manufactured goods to be competitive abroad. The first section highlights the causes and problems of overvalued exchange rates, particularly the Dutch disease issue, which is neutralized when the exchange rate strikes the industrial equilibrium level. This level is defined by the ratio between the unit labor cost in the country under consideration and in competing countries. Finally, the evolution of this exchange rate in the Brazilian economy is estimated.

Política industrial e desenvolvimento econômico: a reatualização de um debate histórico

Industrial policy and economic development: a review of the contemporary debate. This paper discusses the importance of the industrial policy for the Brazilian economic development. It presents the theoretical foundations and the main international experiences about this theme. Besides it examines the main industrial policies adopted in Brazil, especially in recent years. Based on this discussion, it is possible to note that despite the criticisms against this policy, they were widely used by many developed countries in the past and also played an important role, contributing to increase the industrial growth in Brazil. However, the recent Brazilian industrial policies were not so efficient, especially when compared with those adopted during most of the 20th century.

A política industrial chinesa como determinante de sua estratégia going global

China has experienced not only high rates of economic growth as well as an unprecedented competitive international insertion since the turn of the century. This process was not guided solely by market forces or influenced by Government intervention in the economy. Although much has been argued that China's "going global" strategy is rooted in state action, and especially its policy of exchange rate depreciation and trade policy incentives for exports and investments abroad, we argue that the major determinant of this strategy, which established the basic conditions for industrial competitiveness, was its industrial policy. The focus of this article is on the changes in China's industrial structure, emphasizing that Chinese industrial policy is a central determinant of its international insertion strategy.

Políticas productivas y competitividad industrial: El caso de Argentina y Brasil

This article aims, on the one hand, to analyze the increase of productive asymmetries between Argentina and Brazil that have been evidencing during the last two decades, and are currently reveled in the structural trade deficit of industrial products that affects Argentina in the bilateral relationship. On the other hand, it intends to contribute to understanding the roots of these asymmetries based on the differences in the public policies implemented by both countries during the period extending from the implementation of the Mercosur, in the early 1990s, until 2008. The focus is set on the technological pattern of industrial production and trade structures, considering a non neutral impact over the long term development.

Effects of overvaluation and exchange rate volatility over industrial investment: empirical evidence and economic policy proposals for Brazil

The present article aims to analyze the recent behavior of real exchange rate in Brazil and its effects over investment per worker in Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. Preliminary estimates presented in the article shows an over-valuation of 48% of real exchange rate in Brazil. The reaction between the level (and volatility) of real exchange rate and investment (per worker) in Brazil is analyzed by means of a panel data econometric model for 30 sectors of Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. The empirical results show that the level and volatility of real exchange rate has a strong effect over investment per worker in Brazilian industry. Finally, we conclude the article presenting a proposal for a new macroeconomic regime that aims to produce an acceleration of economic growth of Brazilian economy and, by that, a catching-up process with developed countries.

O enigma da política industrial no Brasil

RESUMOAo longo dos últimos 10 anos, o governo brasileiro lançou vários planos para promover a inovação da indústria e reforçar sua competitividade a nível nacional. No entanto, os resultados têm se mostrado pobres devido às distorções criadas por alguns instrumentos herdados da época da substituição de importações, tais como altas tarifas sobre bens intermediários e de máquinas, regras de conteúdo local e proteção antidumping. Este artigo destaca o papel desempenhado por esses instrumentos usando dois exemplos: investigações antidumping e uma regra de conteúdo local peculiar que só existe no Brasil, o chamado Processo Produtivo Básico (PPB).

Desindustrialização e o investimento em infraestrutura como instrumento conciliador de uma política industrial base no Brasil

RESUMOO fraco desempenho da indústria brasileira no período pós-crise de 2008 retomou o debate em torno da necessidade de um esboço de política industrial. Por conseguinte, e dadas as suas características, o investimento em infraestrutura se apresenta como uma alternativa conciliadora e eficiente na tarefa de devolver a competitividade a este setor. Este trabalho tem como objetivo aprofundar o debate sobre a questão da desindustrialização da economia brasileira e contribuir para a discussão sobre a funcionalidade do investimento em infraestrutura como instrumento de política industrial, enfatizando seu caráter conciliador no que chamamos aqui de uma política industrial base.