Determinantes da recuperação do emprego formal no Brasil: evidências para o período 2001/2005 e hipoteses para uma agenda de pesquisa

Decisive factors affecting the recent increase in formal employment in Brazil. This paper gives a general overview of the evolution of labour market indicators between 1995 and 2005 in Brazil. It shows an overall increase in formal employment rates from 2001 to 2005, as opposite to what had happened from 1995 to 1999. It is argued that such recent trends might indicate the reconfiguration of the labour market in better terms, with potential positive consequences to the finance performance of the Social Security sector. The paper also examines some of the major factors associated with this new trend and their chances to maintain such tendency in the near future. It's important to notice that all of them may be subject to some kind of political management by the State. In other words, we suggest that there are suficient instruments and operative skills in the Brazilian State to make these and others factors work in favour of a more persistent strategy of development with social inclusion through labour.

Fatores comuns determinantes de crises cambiais e financeiras

Determinative common factors of currency and financial crisis. This paper identifies and evaluates determinative common factors of currency and financial crisis in relation to 86 crises episodes between 1970-2004, based on factor analysis, cluster and discriminant analysis. One evidenced that the rise of the ratios of domestic credit, fiscal deficit and residents bank deposits to the GDP is inherent to the different types of crises classified for economic literature. It was also identified as common factors to these episodes some indicators that capture the excessive monetary expansion of the economies and that reflect the fall in international reserves, represented by M2/Reserves and Imports/Reserves ratios and also the total volume of international reserves.