195 resultados para Crop yield forecasting
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OBJECTIVE To assess the increased diagnostic yield for pulmonary tuberculosis using bronchial washing cultures compared with sputum cultures. METHODS Study conducted with 61 adults in Lima, Peru, from January 2006 to December 2007. The yield of sputum cultures was compared with the yield of acid-fast bacilli smears and cultures of bronchial washing for diagnosing pulmonary tuberculosis in suspected cases of clinical tuberculosis with negative acid fast bacilli sputum smears. RESULTS Twenty seven (95%CI 32;58) of the cases were eventually diagnosed with smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis. Bronchial washing samples detected 23 (95%CI 72;99) of the smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis cases compared with 15 (95%CI 37;74) for sputum cultures (p = 0.02). The incremental diagnostic yield of acid fast bacilli smear and culture of bronchial washing specimens over sputum culture was 44% (95%CI 25;65). CONCLUSIONS In function of the epidemiological context and the resources available, bronchoscopy should be deployed as part of a comprehensive work up that optimizes smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis diagnosis and minimizes risk and costs.
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INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.
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Aniba canelilla (H.B.K.) Mez. is a tree species from Amazon that produces essential oil. The oil extraction from its leaves and stems can be an alternative way to avoid the tree cutting for production of essential oil. The aim of this study was to analyse factors that may influence the essential oil production and the biomass of resprouts after pruning the leaves and stems of A. canelilla trees. The tree crowns were pruned in the wet season and after nine months the leaves and stems of the remaining crown and the resprouts were collected, in the dry season. The results showed that the essential oil yield and chemical composition differed among the stems, leaves and resprouts. The stems' essential oil production differed between the seasons and had a higher production in the resprouting stems than the old stems of the remaining crown. The production of essential oil and leaf biomass of resprouts were differently related to the canopy openness, indicating that light increases the production of the essential oil and decreases the biomass of resprouting leaves. This study revealed that plant organs differ in their essential oil production and that the canopy openness must be taken into account when pruning the A. canelilla tree crown in order to achieve higher oil productivity.
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The tropical tree Schizolobium amazonicum is native from the Amazonian forest, naturally occurring in Brazil, Peru and Colombia. This work aimed to study the veneer yield made from this species. For this purpose, 50 logs from S. amazonicum were rotary peeled in a plywood industry installed in Brazilian Amazon region. The results indicated that S. amazonicum had a peeling yield similar or even higher than those usually obtained for species traditionally used for this purpose in Brazil, like those of Pinus and Eucalyptus. It was also observed that the dendrometric parameters of the log can be used to estimate the peeling yield in this species.
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Studies to select one or more species of coverage plants adapted to Amazonian soil and climate conditions of the Amazon are a promising strategy for the improvement of environmental quality, establishing no-till agricultural systems, and thereby reducing the impacts of monoculture farming. The aim of this study was to assess the persistence time, half-life time, macronutrient content and accumulation, and C:N ratio of straw coverage in a Ultisol in northeastern Pará. Experimental design was randomized blocks with five treatments and five replicates. Plants were harvested after 105 days, growth and biomass production was quantified. After 84 days, soil coverage was 97, 85, 52, 50, and 15% for signalgrass (Brachiaria brizantha) (syn. Urochloa), dense crowngrass (Panicum purpurascens), jack bean (Canavalia ensiformes), pearl millet (Pennisetum americanum) and sunn hemp (Crotalaria juncea,), respectively. Signalgrass yielded the greatest dry matter production (9,696 kg ha-1). It also had high C:N ratio (38.4), long half-life (86.5 days) and a high persistence in the field. Jack bean also showed high dry matter production (8,950 kg ha-1), but it had low C:N ratio (17.4) and lower half-life time (39 days) than the grasses. These attributes indicate that signalgrass and jack bean have a high potential for use as cover plants in no-till agricultural systems in the State of Pará.
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Long pepper (Piper hispidinervum) is an Amazonian species of commercial interest due to the production of safrole. Drying long pepper biomass to extract safrole is a time consuming and costly process that can also result in the contamination of the material by microorganisms. The objective of this study was to analyze the yield of essential oil and safrole content of fresh and dried biomass of long pepper accessions maintained in the Active Germoplasm Bank of Embrapa Acre, in the state of Acre, Brazil, aiming at selecting genotypes with best performance on fresh biomass to recommend to the breeding program of the species. Yield of essential oil and safrole content were assessed in 15 long pepper accessions. The essential oil extraction was performed by hydrodistillation and analyzed by gas chromatography. A joint analysis of experiments was performed and the means of essential oil yield and safrole content for each biomass were compared by Student's t-test. There was variability in the essential oil yield and safrole content. There was no difference between the types of biomass for oil yield; however to the safrole content there was difference. Populations 9, 10, 12 and 15 had values of oil yield between 4.1 and 5.3%, and safrole content between 87.2 and 94.3%. The drying process does not interfere in oil productivity. These populations have potential for selection to the long pepper breeding program using oil extraction in the fresh biomass
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The authors carried out a series of pots and plots experiments applying arsenical and organic insecticides to cotton plants cultivated in "terra roxa" and in a sandy soil. The first results were presented in 1947, to the la. Reunião Brasileira de Ciência do Solo (First Brazilian Congress of Soil Science); they pointed out the danger resulting from the accumulation of arsenic in soils due to the constant applications of arsenicais to control cotton pests; in the course of the time, the amount of residual arsenic in the soil would determine a decrease in cotton yield caused by its toxic effect on the crop. The following conclusions were drawn from the last three experiments: 1) the field experiment conducted in a sandy soil to which lead arseniate was applied in increasing rates produced a reduction of 50 per cent in the yield (the three highest doses were responsible for this result); by this way, the pot experiment published in 1947 was confirmed); 2) in the pot experiment with "terra roxa" toxic effects appeared only in the plants receiving the last dosis of lead arsenate; this result is explained quite naturally by a considerable absorption of the AsO4 --- ion by "terra roxa" colloidal material; furthermore the CaO, P2O5 and Fe2O3 content and the pH value (higher) would decrease the arsenate solubilization in the soil considered; 3) the pot experiment with organic insecticides applied in the rates usually employed in the control of cotton pests, showed that 10% D.D.TD. and 2.5% Rotenone did not affect cotton plants cultivated in a sandy soil; however we agree with FOSTER (1951), in the point that both mineral and organic insecticides must be applied in the minimum amount as possible; we also think that experiments like those should be carried out with the known insecticides, in several soil conditions and with many crops in order to determine the maximum limits of tolerancy.
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This paper deals with the results of a pot and plot experiment which was carried out to determine the influence of sulphur and boron and the effect seed inoculation with Rhizobium meliloti in the yield of alfafa. Sulphur was applied as flower of sulphur at the rates of 1,000 and 2,000 kg por hectare; boron was employed in the proportion of 15 kg of borax per hectare; both sulphur and boron were distributed broadcast before planting; the experimental design chosen for the field trial was a latin square of 6 x 6 with the following treatments: Number Treatment 1 Control 2 One dosis S + inoculation 3 Two dosis S +inoculation 4 One dosis S + B + inoculation 5 B + inoculation 6 inoculation The crop supplied four cuttings in an eleven months period. The pot experiment nearly confirmed the plot one. The following conclusions can be drawn: 1. The classification of treatments in a decrescent order was: l.o - two doses S + inoculation; 2.o - one dosis S +inoculation, S + B + inoculation, and B + inoculation (these treatmente were not statistically different); 3.o - control; 4.o - inoculation; 2 The vield due to the treatment two dosis S + inoculation was 22 per cent higher than the control one, a fact that suggests that the S supply in the soil studied ("terra roxa misturada") is not sufficient for the total requirements of alfafa; 3. From an economical point of view the best treatment was: one dosis B + inoculation which permits a net gain of Cr$ 12.527,30 per hectare per year; 4. Based on the mentioned results we recommend in soils of same type the following fertilization for alfafa. 5 tons limestone/hectare 300 kg serranafosfato and 600 kg hiperfosfato/ha 300 kg muriate of potash/ha 15 kg borax/ha and a medium organic manuring if the soil is very poor in organic matter.
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The authors discuss from the economic point of view the use of a few functions intended to represent the yield y corresponding to a level xof the nutrient. They point out that under conditions of scarce capital what is actually most important is not to obtain the highest profit per hectare but the highest return per cruzeiro spent, so that we should maximize the function z = _R - C_ = _R_ - 1 , C C where R is the gross income and C the cost of production (fixed plus variable, both per hectare). Being C = M + rx, with r the unit price of the nutrient and Af the fixed cost of the crop, wo are led to the equation (M + rx)R' - rR = 0. With R = k + sx + tx², this gives a solution Xo = - Mt - √ M²t² - r t(Ms - Kr)- _____________________ rt on the other hand, with R = PyA [1 - 10-c(x + b)], x0 will be the root of equation (M + rx)cL 10 + r 10c(x + b) = 0 (12). Another solution, pointed out by PESEK and HEADY, is to maximize the function z = sx + tx² _________ m + rx where the numerator is the additional income due to the nutrient, and m is the fixed cost of fertilization. This leads to a solution x+ = - mt - √m²t² - mrst (13) _________________ rt However, we must have x+< _r_-_s_ I if we want to satisfy t _dy_ > r. dx This condition is satisfied only if we have m < _(s__-__r)² (14), - 4 t a restriction apparently not perceived by PESEK and HEADY. A similar reasoning using Mitscherlich's law leads to equation (mcL 10 + r) + cr(L 10)x - r 10cx = 0 (15), with a similar restriction. As an example, data of VIEGAS referring to fertilization of corn (maize) gave the equation y - 1534 + 22.99 x - 0. 1069 x², with x in kg/ha of the cereal. With the prices of Cr$ 5.00 per kilo of maize, Cr$ 26.00 per kilo of P2O3,. and M = Cr$ 5,000.00, we obtain x0 = 61 kg/ha of P(2)0(5). A similar reasoning using Mitscherlich's law leads to x0 = 53 kg/ha. Now, if we take in account only the fixed cost of fertilization m = Cr$ 600.00 per hectare, we obtain from (13) x+ = 51 kg/ha of P2O5, while (14) gives x+ - 41 kg/ha. Note that if m = Cr$ 5,000.00, we obtain by formula (13) x+ = 88 kg/ha of P2O5, a solution which is not valid, since condition (14) is not satisfied.
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An experiment was carried out with common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris, L.) in a Red Yellow Latossol, sandy phase, in order to study the influence of foliar spraying of the Hanway nutrient solution (NPKS) at grain filling stage on: 1) grain yield; 2) the uptake of fertilizer and soil nitrogen by this crop through the root system and 3) the efficiency of utilization of the nitrogen in the foliar spray solution by the grain. The results of this experiment showed that the foliar application of the Hanway solution with ammonium nitrate at the pod filling period caused severe leaf burn and grain yield was inferior to that of the plants which received a soil application of this fertilizer at the same stage. These facts can be attributed to the presence of ammonium nitrate in the concentration used. The composition of final spray was: 114,28 Kg NH4NO3 + 43,11 Kg potassium poliphosphate + 12,44 Kg potassium sulphate per 500 litres. The uptake of nitrogen fertilizer through the root system and the efficiency of its utilization was greater than that through the leaves.
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(1) In the period 1965/77 fertilizer consumption in Brazil increased nearly fifteen foild from circa 200,000 tons of N + P2O5 + K2O to 3 million tons. During the fifteen years extending from 1950 to 1964 usage of the primary macronutrients was raised by a factor of 2 only. (2) Several explanations are given for the remarkable increase, namely: an experimental background which supplied data for recommendations of rates, time and type of application; a convenient governmental policy for minimum prices and rural credit; capacity of the industry to meet the demand of the fertilizer market; an adequate mechanism for the diffusion of the practice of fertilizer use to the farmer. (3) The extension work, which has caused a permanent change in the aptitude towards fertilization, was carried out in the traditional way by salesmen supported by a technical staff, as well as by agronomists of the official services. (4) Two new programs were started and conducted in a rather short time, both putting emphasis on the relatively new technology of fertilizer use. (5) The first program, conducted in the Southern part of the country, extended lab and green house work supplemented by a few field trials to small land owners - the so called "operação tatú" (operation armadillo). (6) The seconde program, covering a larger problem area in the Northeast and in Central Brazil, began directly in field as thousands of demonstrations and simple experiments with the participation of local people whose involvement was essential for the success of the initiative; in this case the official extension services, both foreign and national sources of funds, and universities did participate under the leadership of the Brazilian Association for the Diffusion of Fertilizers (ANDA). (7) It is felt that the Brazilian experience gained thereof could be useful to other countries under similar conditions.
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An experiment was carried out to study the effects of the following population densities cauliflowers (plants per ha): 20,833 (0.60 m x 0.80 m), 25,641 (0.60 m x 0.65 m), ....37.037 (0.60 m x 0.45 m) , 55.555 (.0.60 m x 0.30 m), and 111,111 (0,60 m x 0,15 m) ; variety Snow ball. It was concluded that the effects of plant population density are greater on curd quality (weight and size) than on production per ha. The best plant population density to produce cauliflowers curd for Brazil market is from 20,000 to 25,000 plants/ha while for mini-curd is above 55,000 plants/ha.
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The present work deal t wi th an experiment under field conditions and a laboratory test of soil incubation the objectives were as follows: a. to study effects on soybean grain product ion and leaf composition of increasing doses of potassium chloride applied into the soil through two methods of distribution; b. to observe chemical modifications in the soils incubated with increasing doses of potassium chloride; and, c. to correlate field effects with chemical alterations observed in the incubation test, The field experiment was carried out in a Red Latosol (Haplustox) with soybean cultivar UFV - 1. Potassium chloride was distributed through two methods: banded (5 cm below and 5 cm aside of the seed line) and broadcasted and plowed-down. Doses used were: 0; 50; 100 and 200 kg/ha of K2O. Foliar samples were taken at flowering stage. Incubation test were made in plastic bags with 2 kg of air dried fine soil, taken from the arable layer of the field experiment, with the following doses of KC1 p,a. : 0; 50; 100; 200; 400; 800; 1,600; 3.200; 6,400 and 12,800 kg/ha of K(2)0. In the conditions observed during the present work, results allowed the following conclusions: A response by soybean grain production for doses of potassium chloride, applied in both ways, banded or broadcasted, was not observed. Leaf analysis did not show treatment influence over the leaf contents for N, P, K, Ca, Mg, and CI, Potassium chloride salinity effects in both methods of distribution for all the tested closes were not observed.
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The influence of density of planting on flower production of carnation plants grown in vinil houses, was studied. Planting densities of 233,333; 175,000 and 116,667 plants per hectare were obtained by using planting spacings of 0.20 m between rows and 0.15 m, 0,20 m and 0.30 m between plants. Data were taken on total number of flowers per plant and per hectare. As far as planting densities are concerned, there was an increase of total flower production per hectare and a decrease of slower production per plant.