Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for milk production of Guzerat cows using orthogonal Legendre polynomials

The objective of this work was to compare random regression models for the estimation of genetic parameters for Guzerat milk production, using orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Records (20,524) of test-day milk yield (TDMY) from 2,816 first-lactation Guzerat cows were used. TDMY grouped into 10-monthly classes were analyzed for additive genetic effect and for environmental and residual permanent effects (random effects), whereas the contemporary group, calving age (linear and quadratic effects) and mean lactation curve were analized as fixed effects. Trajectories for the additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled by means of a covariance function employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials ranging from the second to the fifth order. Residual variances were considered in one, four, six, or ten variance classes. The best model had six residual variance classes. The heritability estimates for the TDMY records varied from 0.19 to 0.32. The random regression model that used a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and a fifth-order polynomial for the permanent environmental effect is adequate for comparison by the main employed criteria. The model with a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and that with a fourth-order for the permanent environmental effect could also be employed in these analyses.

Horizontal projections of area 17 in Cebus monkeys: metric features, and modular and laminar distribution

Metric features and modular and laminar distributions of intrinsic projections of area 17 were studied in Cebus apella. Anterogradely and retrogradely labeled cell appendages were obtained using both saturated pellets and iontophoretic injections of biocytin into the operculum. Laminar and modular distributions of the labeled processes were analyzed using Nissl counterstaining, and/or cytochrome oxidase and/or NADPH-diaphorase histochemistry. We distinguished three labeled cell types: pyramidal, star pyramidal and stellate cells located in supragranular cortical layers (principally in layers IIIa, IIIb a, IIIb ß and IIIc). Three distinct axon terminal morphologies were found, i.e., Ia, Ib and II located in granular and supragranular layers. Both complete and partial segregation of group I axon terminals relative to the limits of the blobs of V1 were found. The results are compatible with recent evidence of incomplete segregation of visual information flow in V1 of Old and New World primates

How many low birthweight babies in low- and middle-income countries are preterm?

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of preterm birth among low birthweight babies in low and middle-income countries. METHODS: Major databases (PubMed, LILACS, Google Scholar) were searched for studies on the prevalence of term and preterm LBW babies with field work carried out after 1990 in low- and middle-income countries. Regression methods were used to model this proportion according to LBW prevalence levels. RESULTS: According to 47 studies from 27 low- and middle-income countries, approximately half of all LBW babies are preterm rather than one in three as assumed in studies previous to the 1990s. CONCLUSIONS: The estimate of a substantially higher number of LBW preterm babies has important policy implications in view of special health care needs of these infants. As for earlier projections, our findings are limited by the relative lack of population-based studies.

Lack of access and continuity of adult health care: a national population-based survey

OBJECTIVE To describe the lack of access and continuity of health care in adults.METHODS A cross-sectional population-based study was performed on a sample of 12,402 adults aged 20 to 59 years in urban areas of 100 municipalities of 23 states in the five Brazilian geopolitical regions. Barriers to the access and continuity of health care and were investigated based on receiving, needing and seeking health care (hospitalization and accident/emergency care in the last 12 months; care provided by a doctor, by other health professional or home care in the last three months). Based on the results obtained by the description of the sample, a projection is provided for adults living in Brazilian urban areas.RESULTS The highest prevalence of lack of access to health services and to provision of care by health professionals was for hospitalization (3.0%), whilst the lowest prevalence was for care provided by a doctor (1.1%). The lack of access to care provided by other health professionals was 2.0%; to accident and emergency services, 2.1%; and to home care, 2.9%. As for prevalences, the greatest absolute lack of access occurred in emergency care (more than 360,000 adults). The main reasons were structural and organizational problems, such as unavailability of hospital beds, of health professionals, of appointments for the type of care needed and charges made for care.CONCLUSIONS The universal right to health care in Brazil has not yet been achieved. These projections can help health care management in scaling the efforts needed to overcome this problem, such as expanding the infrastructure of health services and the workforce.

Dynamic network data envelopment analysis for university hospitals evaluation

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To develop an assessment tool to evaluate the efficiency of federal university general hospitals. METHODS Data envelopment analysis, a linear programming technique, creates a best practice frontier by comparing observed production given the amount of resources used. The model is output-oriented and considers variable returns to scale. Network data envelopment analysis considers link variables belonging to more than one dimension (in the model, medical residents, adjusted admissions, and research projects). Dynamic network data envelopment analysis uses carry-over variables (in the model, financing budget) to analyze frontier shift in subsequent years. Data were gathered from the information system of the Brazilian Ministry of Education (MEC), 2010-2013. RESULTS The mean scores for health care, teaching and research over the period were 58.0%, 86.0%, and 61.0%, respectively. In 2012, the best performance year, for all units to reach the frontier it would be necessary to have a mean increase of 65.0% in outpatient visits; 34.0% in admissions; 12.0% in undergraduate students; 13.0% in multi-professional residents; 48.0% in graduate students; 7.0% in research projects; besides a decrease of 9.0% in medical residents. In the same year, an increase of 0.9% in financing budget would be necessary to improve the care output frontier. In the dynamic evaluation, there was progress in teaching efficiency, oscillation in medical care and no variation in research. CONCLUSIONS The proposed model generates public health planning and programming parameters by estimating efficiency scores and making projections to reach the best practice frontier.

Amazolachesilla, a new genus of Eolachesillinae (Insecta: Psocodea: "Psocoptera": Lachesillidae) from Amazonas, Brazil

Amazolachesilla, a new genus in Graphocaeciliini (Lachesillidae: Eolachesillinae), from Amazonas, Brazil, is here described and illustrated. It presents an autapomorphic clunial shelf and clunial projections, as well as a peculiar male epiproct, and paraprocts with a s clerotized longitudinal rod that makes it unique in the tribe.

QRS Voltage-Duration Product in the Identification of Left Ventricular Hypertrophy in Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats

OBJECTIVE - Evaluation of the performance of the QRS voltage-duration product (VDP) for detection of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR). METHODS - Orthogonal electrocardiograms (ECG) were recorded in male SHR at the age of 12 and 20 weeks, when systolic blood pressure (sBP) reached the average values of 165±3 mmHg and 195±12 mmHg, respectively. Age- and sex- matched normotensive Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rats were used as controls. VDP was calculated as a product of maximum QRS spatial vector magnitude and QRS duration. Left ventricular mass (LVM) was weighed after rats were sacrificed. RESULTS - LVM in SHR at 12 and 20 weeks of age (0.86±0.05 g and 1.05±0.07 g, respectively) was significantly higher as compared with that in WKY (0.65±0.07 g and 0.70±0.02 g). The increase in LVM closely correlated with the sBP increase. VDP did not reflect the increase in LVM in SHR. VDP was lower in SHR as compared with that in WKY, and the difference was significant at the age of 20 weeks (18.2mVms compared with 10.7mVms, p<0.01). On the contrary, a significant increase in the VDP was observed in the control WKY at the age of 20 weeks without changes in LVM. The changes in VDP were influenced mainly by the changes in QRSmax. CONCLUSION - LVM was not the major determinant of QRS voltage changes and consequently of the VDP. These data point to the importance of the nonspatial determinants of the recorded QRS voltage in terms of the solid angle theory.

O regime de chuvas em Pesqueira

The authors studied the rainfall in Pesqueira (Pernambuco, Brasil) in a period of 48 years (1910 through 1957) by the method of orthogonal polynomials, degrees up to the fourth having been tried. None of them was significant, so that it seems that no trend is present. The mean observed was 679.00 mm., with standard error of the mean 205.5 mm., and a 30.3% coefficient of variation. The 95% level of probability would include annual rainfall from 263.9 up to 1094.1mm.

Estudo sôbre as temperaturas médias em Campinas

This paper deals with the study by orthogonal polynomials of trends in the mean annual and mean monthly temperatures (in degrees Centigrade) in Campinas (State of São Paulo, Brasil), from 1890 up to 1956. Only 4 months were studied (January, April, July and October) taken as typical of their respective season. For the annual averages both linear and quadratic components were significant, the regression equation being y = 19.95 - 0.0219 x + 0.00057 x², where y is the temperature (in degrees Centigrade) and x is the number of years after 1889. Thus 1890 corresponds to x = 1, 1891, to x = 2, etc. The equation shows a minimum for the year 1908, with a calculated mean y = 19.74. The expected means by the regression equation are given below. Anual temperature means for Campinas (SP, Brasil) calculated by the regression equation Year Annual mean (Degrees Centigrade) 1890 19.93 1900 10.78 1908 19.74 (minimum) 1010 19.75 1920 19.82 1930 20.01 1940 20.32 1950 20.74 1956 21.05 The mean for 67 years was 20.08°C with standard error of the mean 0.08°G. For January the regression equation was y = 23.08 - 0.0661 x + 0.00122 x², with a minimum of 22.19°C for 1916. The average for 67 years was 22.70°C, with standard error 0.12°C. For April no component of regression was significant. The average was 20.42°C, with standard error 0.13°C. For July the regression equation was of first degree, y = 16.01 + 0.0140X. The average for 67 years was 16.49°C, with standard error of the mean 0.14°C. Finally, for October the regression equation was y = 20.55 - 0.0362x + 0.00078x², with a minimum of 20.13°C for 1912. The average was 20.52°C, with standard error of the mean equal to 0.14°C.

Three new species of Cephalobium (Nematoda, Cephalobiidae) parasites of Gryllodes laplatae (Orthoptera, Gryllidae) from Argentina

Three new species of Cephalobium Cobb, 1920, C. laplata from City Bell, C. polidentatum from Lincoln and C. dispar from Gorina, parasites of Gryllodes laplatae Saussure, 1877 from Buenos Aires, Argentina, are described and illustrated. Cephalobium laplata can be differentiated by having the cheilostom with a dorsal unmovable tooth, telostom with three ventral little teeth and two ventral movable claw teeth and gubernaculum triangular and five pairs of genital papillae. Cephalobium polidentatum has cheilostom with a movable ventral tooth, prostom with four dorsal movable teeth and telostom with three teeth; gubernaculum triangular with projections and with one pair of preanal and six pairs of postanal papillae. Cephalobium dispar is characterized by having telostom with two wings around the spicules and one pair of preanal and six pairs postanal papillae.

Metanotal gland of the genus Eidmanacris (Grylloidea, Phalangopsidae): taxonomic importance

The present study compares the metanotal gland through scanning electron microscopy in five species of Eidmanacris: E. corumbatai Garcia, 1998, E. alboannulata (Piza, 1960), E. dissimilis Desutter-Grandcolas, 1995, E. larvaeformis (Chopard, 1938) and Eidmanacris sp. The general external configuration of the gland was determined by the presence of two median projections with apical opening and a cluster of bristles just above these projections. Although there is a general pattern for this gland, each species has its own pattern, which can be defined mainly by the arrangement of the bristles and the position of the median projections. Our results suggest the taxonomical importance of these structures, which should be better analyzed when describing species of the genus Eidmanacris. In addition, while observing the reproductive behavior of these species, we concluded that the release of this gland secretion is important for the success of mating.

Freshwater sponges (Porifera, Demospongiae) indicators of some coastal habitats in South America: redescriptions and key to identification

Surveys for freshwater sponges were performed at several water bodies at sandy environments along a north-south direction of particularly the Brazilian coastal line. The results allowed for the distinction of four different species-specific environments along this coastal border. The main fact considered was the dominant or the sole recurrent occurrence of a single sponge species at one particular habitat. The first one is that of the lagoonal mesohaline habitats at the tropical and subtropical realms, indicated by Spongilla alba Carter, 1849. The second one refers to shallow ponds among dunes at the tropical area indicated by Corvoheteromeyenia heterosclera (Ezcurra de Drago, 1974). The third one is that of also shallow ponds close to the dune belt at the temperate region indicated by Racekiela sheilae (Volkmer-Ribeiro, De Rosa-Barbosa & Tavares, 1988). The fourth one is that of organically enriched environments, at the marginal areas of lagoons and mouth of small rivers, evolving towards freshwater muddy ponds and coastal swamps, not far from the ocean border: Ephydatia facunda Weltner, 1895 is the species to occupy this habitat with almost exclusiveness. The above species are thus proposed as indicators of such habitats and have their descriptions improved and that of their environments summarized. A taxonomic key based on the spicules of the four species is proposed. The results presented aim to contribute to the identification of spicules of these sponges in sediment columns recovered at the Brazilian and South American coastal area. Determination of paleo ocean borders are a present issue of upmost importance in what respects projections of timing and fluctuations of ascending/regressing sea levels.

Climate and land-use changes effects on the distribution of a regional endemism: Melanophryniscus sanmartini (Amphibia, Bufonidae)

ABSTRACT Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate group according to the IUCN. Land-use and land cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) are two of the main factors related to declining amphibian populations. Given the vulnerability of threatened and rare species, the study of their response to these impacts is a conservation priority. The aim of this work was to analyze the combined impact of LULCC and CC on the regionally endemic species Melanophryniscus sanmartini Klappenbach, 1968. This species is currently categorized as near threatened by the IUCN, and previous studies suggest negative effects of projected changes in climate. Using maximum entropy methods we modeled the effects of CC on the current and mid-century distribution of M. sanmartini under two IPCC scenarios - A2 (severe) and B2 (moderate). The effects of LULCC were studied by superimposing the potential distribution with current land use, while future distribution models were evaluated under the scenario of maximum expansion of soybean and afforestation in Uruguay. The results suggest that M. sanmartini is distributed in eastern Uruguay and the south of Brazil, mainly related to hilly and grasslands systems. Currently more than 10% of this species' distribution is superimposed by agricultural crops and exotic forest plantations. Contrasting with a recent modelling study our models suggest an expansion of the distribution of M. sanmartini by mid-century under both climate scenarios. However, despite the rise in climatically suitable areas for the species in the future, LULCC projections indicate that the proportion of modified habitats will occupy up to 25% of the distribution of M. sanmartini. Future change in climate conditions could represent an opportunity for M. sanmartini, but management measures are needed to mitigate the effects of habitat modification in order to ensure its survival and allow the eventual expansion of its distribution.

Pterigodermatites (Paucipectines) spinicaudatis n.sp. (Nematoda: Rictularidae) from Dromiciops australis (Marsupialia: Microbiotheriidae) in Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina, biogeographical distribution and host-parasite relationships

Pterigodermatites (P.) spinicaudatis sp.n. from Dromiciops australis is proposed and described. The simple morphology of the ovijector and the presence of a well developed spine between the two cuticular projections at the caudal extremity of the female distinguish the studied nematode from the remainder species of the genus parasitizing South American Edentata, marsupials and cricetid rodents. The distribution area of the hosts of the different species of P. (P.) are given. The studied genus does not parasitize any Australian marsupials. It was found in the endemic South American Microbiotheriidae. This fact suggests from a parasitological point of view that D. australis is not related to the Australian marsupials but to the South American ones.