Multivariate statistical analysis to support the minimum streamflow regionalization

ABSTRACT This study aimed to develop a methodology based on multivariate statistical analysis of principal components and cluster analysis, in order to identify the most representative variables in studies of minimum streamflow regionalization, and to optimize the identification of the hydrologically homogeneous regions for the Doce river basin. Ten variables were used, referring to the river basin climatic and morphometric characteristics. These variables were individualized for each of the 61 gauging stations. Three dependent variables that are indicative of minimum streamflow (Q7,10, Q90 and Q95). And seven independent variables that concern to climatic and morphometric characteristics of the basin (total annual rainfall – Pa; total semiannual rainfall of the dry and of the rainy season – Pss and Psc; watershed drainage area – Ad; length of the main river – Lp; total length of the rivers – Lt; and average watershed slope – SL). The results of the principal component analysis pointed out that the variable SL was the least representative for the study, and so it was discarded. The most representative independent variables were Ad and Psc. The best divisions of hydrologically homogeneous regions for the three studied flow characteristics were obtained using the Mahalanobis similarity matrix and the complete linkage clustering method. The cluster analysis enabled the identification of four hydrologically homogeneous regions in the Doce river basin.

Brazil: an emerging military power? The problem of the use of force in Brazilian international relations in the 21st century

The central goal of this paper is thinking about the Brazilian military power and its linking to the international ambitions of the country in the 21st century. After a comparative analysis to other BRICs and with a historical one about Brazil's strategic irrelevance, we aim to establish what the minimum military capacity Brazil would need in order to meet the country's latest international interests. Similarly, it will be discussed if the National Strategy of Defense, approved in 2008, and the recent strategic agreements signed with France represent one more step toward this minimum military capacity.

Environmental issues and international relations, a new global (dis)order - the role of International Relations in promoting a concerted international system

Is it possible to talk about the rise of a new global (dis)order founded on the challenges posed by environmental issues? Through the review of the state of the art on the subject, this article analyzes the growing importance of the environment, and natural resources in particular, in international relations; and aims to raise awareness among International Relations scholars to the potential positive impact of the development of the discipline in integration with global environmental change studies.

Reshaping European Union development policy: collective choices and the new global order

Abstract The European Union (EU) is one of the world´s leading donors in official development assistance (ODA) to give a strong weight in the relationship with recipient partner countries, in particular with those that are more dependent on it. Besides the material weight of its funding, the EU has retained historical ties and influence in diplomatic, political and economic terms in many of its ODA recipient partner countries (particular in Sub-Saharan Africa). Since the 2000s, the EU development policy has not only undergone major structural changes in its institutional framework but also has started to face a new international aid scenario. This paper explores why a normative-based EU development policy is being challenged by reformed EU institutions and a new global order, and how the EU is attempting to respond to this context in face of the deepest recession since the end of the Second World War.

Mycophenolate mofetil may protect against Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia in renal transplanted patients

Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) is usually prevented in transplanted patients by prophylactic trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazol (TMS). Mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) has been shown to have a strong protective effect against PCP in rats. This effect is also suggested in humans by the absence of PCP in patients receiving MMF. After January 1998 MMF has been used with no TMS prophylaxis in renal transplanted patients. In azathioprine (AZA) treated patients TMS prophylaxis was maintained. The incidence of PCP was analyzed in both groups. Data were collected in order to have a minimum 6-month follow-up. Two hundred and seventy-two patients were eligible for analysis. No PCP occurred either in patients under MMF without TMS prophylaxis nor in patients under AZA. MMF may have an effective protective role against PCP as no patient under MMF, despite not receiving TMS coverage, developed PCP. A larger, controlled, trial is warranted to consolidate this information.

Chemical composition, toxicity and larvicidal and antifungal activities of Persea americana (avocado) seed extracts

The present study had the aim of testing the hexane and methanol extracts of avocado seeds, in order to determine their toxicity towards Artemia salina, evaluate their larvicidal activity towards Aedes aegypti and investigate their in vitro antifungal potential against strains of Candida spp, Cryptococcus neoformans and Malassezia pachydermatis through the microdilution technique. In toxicity tests on Artemia salina, the hexane and methanol extracts from avocado seeds showed LC50 values of 2.37 and 24.13mg mL-1 respectively. Against Aedes aegypti larvae, the LC50 results obtained were 16.7mg mL-1 for hexane extract and 8.87mg mL-1 for methanol extract from avocado seeds. The extracts tested were also active against all the yeast strains tested in vitro, with differing results such that the minimum inhibitory concentration of the hexane extract ranged from 0.625 to 1.25mg L-¹, from 0.312 to 0.625mg mL-1 and from 0.031 to 0.625mg mL-1, for the strains of Candida spp, Cryptococcus neoformans and Malassezia pachydermatis, respectively. The minimal inhibitory concentration for the methanol extract ranged from 0.125 to 0.625mg mL-1, from 0.08 to 0.156mg mL-1 and from 0.312 to 0.625mg mL-1, for the strains of Candida spp., Cryptococcus neoformans and Malassezia pachydermatis, respectively.

Spatial distribution of trachoma cases in the City of Bauru, State of São Paulo, Brazil, detected in 2006: defining key areas for improvement of health resources

IntroductionThe objective of this study was to analyze the spatial behavior of the occurrence of trachoma cases detected in the City of Bauru, State of São Paulo, Brazil, in 2006 in order to use the information collected to set priority areas for optimization of health resources.Methodsthe trachoma cases identified in 2006 were georeferenced. The data evaluated were: schools where the trachoma cases studied, data from the 2000 Census, census tract, type of housing, water supply conditions, distribution of income and levels of education of household heads. In the Google Earth® software and TerraView® were made descriptive spatial analysis and estimates of the Kernel. Each area was studied by interpolation of the density surfaces exposing events to facilitate to recognize the clusters.ResultsOf the 66 cases detected, only one (1.5%) was not a resident of the city's outskirts. A positive association was detected of trachoma cases and the percentage of heads of household with income below three minimum wages and schooling under eight years of education.ConclusionsThe recognition of the spatial distribution of trachoma cases coincided with the areas of greatest social inequality in Bauru City. The micro-areas identified are those that should be prioritized in the rationalization of health resources. There is the possibility of using the trachoma cases detected as an indicator of performance of micro priority health programs.

Minimum detection limit of an in-house nested-PCR assay for herpes simplex virus and varicella zoster virus

Introduction Herpes simplex virus (HSV) and varicella zoster virus (VZV) are responsible for a variety of human diseases, including central nervous system diseases. The use of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) techniques on cerebrospinal fluid samples has allowed the detection of viral DNA with high sensitivity and specificity. Methods Serial dilutions of quantified commercial controls of each virus were subjected to an in-house nested-PCR technique. Results The minimum detection limits for HSV and VZV were 5 and 10 copies/µL, respectively. Conclusions The detection limit of nested-PCR for HSV and VZV in this study was similar to the limits found in previous studies.

Monoterpene isolated from the essential oil of Trachyspermum ammi is cytotoxic to multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus strains

Abstract INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to determine whether an herbal extract containing monoterpene exhibited activity against multidrug-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolated from clinical infection samples. METHODS: The essential oil of Trachyspermum ammi (L.) Sprague ex Turrill (Apiaceae) fruit was extracted by hydrodistillation. Fruit residues were treated with hydrochloric acid and re-hydrodistilled to obtain volatile compounds. Compounds in the distilled oil were identified using gas-chromatography (GC) and GC-mass spectrometry (MS). The antibiotic susceptibility of all bacterial isolates was analyzed using both the disc diffusion method and determination of the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC). The sensitivity of antibiotic-resistant isolates to essential oil was also determined by using the disc diffusion method and MIC determination. RESULTS: Of 26 clinical isolates, 92% were multidrug-resistant (MDR). Aromatic monoterpenes (thymol, paracymene, and gamma-terpinene) were the major (90%) components of the oil. Growth of S. aureus strains was successfully inhibited by the oil, with an inhibitory zone diameter (IZD) between 30-60mm and MIC <0.02μL/mL. The oil had no antimicrobial activity against clinical isolates of P. aeruginosa; rather, it prevented pigment production in these isolates. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed that the essential oil of Trachyspermum ammi, which contains monoterpene, has good antibacterial potency. Monoterpenes could thus be incorporated into antimicrobial ointment formulas in order to treat highly drug-resistant S. aureus infections. Our findings also underscore the utility of research on natural products in order to combat bacterial multidrug resistance.

Análise estatística da distribuição de Poisson

The general properties of POISSON distributions and their relations to the binomial distribuitions are discussed. Two methods of statistical analysis are dealt with in detail: X2-test. In order to carry out the X2-test, the mean frequency and the theoretical frequencies for all classes are calculated. Than the observed and the calculated frequencies are compared, using the well nown formula: f(obs) - f(esp) 2; i(esp). When the expected frequencies are small, one must not forget that the value of X2 may only be calculated, if the expected frequencies are biger than 5. If smaller values should occur, the frequencies of neighboroughing classes must ge pooled. As a second test reintroduced by BRIEGER, consists in comparing the observed and expected error standard of the series. The observed error is calculated by the general formula: δ + Σ f . VK n-1 where n represents the number of cases. The theoretical error of a POISSON series with mean frequency m is always ± Vm. These two values may be compared either by dividing the observed by the theoretical error and using BRIEGER's tables for # or by dividing the respective variances and using SNEDECOR's tables for F. The degree of freedom for the observed error is one less the number of cases studied, and that of the theoretical error is always infinite. In carrying out these tests, one important point must never be overlloked. The values for the first class, even if no concrete cases of the type were observed, must always be zero, an dthe value of the subsequent classes must be 1, 2, 3, etc.. This is easily seen in some of the classical experiments. For instance in BORKEWITZ example of accidents in Prussian armee corps, the classes are: no, one, two, etc., accidents. When counting the frequency of bacteria, these values are: no, one, two, etc., bacteria or cultures of bacteria. Ins studies of plant diseases equally the frequencies are : no, one, two, etc., plants deseased. Howewer more complicated cases may occur. For instance, when analising the degree of polyembriony, frequently the case of "no polyembryony" corresponds to the occurrence of one embryo per each seed. Thus the classes are not: no, one, etc., embryo per seed, but they are: no additional embryo, one additional embryo, etc., per seed with at least one embryo. Another interestin case was found by BRIEGER in genetic studies on the number os rows in maize. Here the minimum number is of course not: no rows, but: no additional beyond eight rows. The next class is not: nine rows, but: 10 rows, since the row number varies always in pairs of rows. Thus the value of successive classes are: no additional pair of rows beyond 8, one additional pair (or 10 rows), two additional pairs (or 12 rows) etc.. The application of the methods is finally shown on the hand of three examples : the number of seeds per fruit in the oranges M Natal" and "Coco" and in "Calamondin". As shown in the text and the tables, the agreement with a POISSON series is very satisfactory in the first two cases. In the third case BRIEGER's error test indicated a significant reduction of variability, and the X2 test showed that there were two many fruits with 4 or 5 seeds and too few with more or with less seeds. Howewer the fact that no fruit was found without seed, may be taken to indicate that in Calamondin fruits are not fully parthenocarpic and may develop only with one seed at the least. Thus a new analysis was carried out, on another class basis. As value for the first class the following value was accepted: no additional seed beyond the indispensable minimum number of one seed, and for the later classes the values were: one, two, etc., additional seeds. Using this new basis for all calculations, a complete agreement of the observed and expected frequencies, of the correspondig POISSON series was obtained, thus proving that our hypothesis of the impossibility of obtaining fruits without any seed was correct for Calamondin while the other two oranges were completely parthenocarpic and fruits without seeds did occur.

A determinação dos números de indivíduos mínimos necessários na experimentação genética

The main object of the present paper consists in giving formulas and methods which enable us to determine the minimum number of repetitions or of individuals necessary to garantee some extent the success of an experiment. The theoretical basis of all processes consists essentially in the following. Knowing the frequency of the desired p and of the non desired ovents q we may calculate the frequency of all possi- ble combinations, to be expected in n repetitions, by expanding the binomium (p-+q)n. Determining which of these combinations we want to avoid we calculate their total frequency, selecting the value of the exponent n of the binomium in such a way that this total frequency is equal or smaller than the accepted limit of precision n/pª{ 1/n1 (q/p)n + 1/(n-1)| (q/p)n-1 + 1/ 2!(n-2)| (q/p)n-2 + 1/3(n-3) (q/p)n-3... < Plim - -(1b) There does not exist an absolute limit of precision since its value depends not only upon psychological factors in our judgement, but is at the same sime a function of the number of repetitions For this reasen y have proposed (1,56) two relative values, one equal to 1-5n as the lowest value of probability and the other equal to 1-10n as the highest value of improbability, leaving between them what may be called the "region of doubt However these formulas cannot be applied in our case since this number n is just the unknown quantity. Thus we have to use, instead of the more exact values of these two formulas, the conventional limits of P.lim equal to 0,05 (Precision 5%), equal to 0,01 (Precision 1%, and to 0,001 (Precision P, 1%). The binominal formula as explained above (cf. formula 1, pg. 85), however is of rather limited applicability owing to the excessive calculus necessary, and we have thus to procure approximations as substitutes. We may use, without loss of precision, the following approximations: a) The normal or Gaussean distribution when the expected frequency p has any value between 0,1 and 0,9, and when n is at least superior to ten. b) The Poisson distribution when the expected frequecy p is smaller than 0,1. Tables V to VII show for some special cases that these approximations are very satisfactory. The praticai solution of the following problems, stated in the introduction can now be given: A) What is the minimum number of repititions necessary in order to avoid that any one of a treatments, varieties etc. may be accidentally always the best, on the best and second best, or the first, second, and third best or finally one of the n beat treatments, varieties etc. Using the first term of the binomium, we have the following equation for n: n = log Riim / log (m:) = log Riim / log.m - log a --------------(5) B) What is the minimun number of individuals necessary in 01der that a ceratin type, expected with the frequency p, may appaer at least in one, two, three or a=m+1 individuals. 1) For p between 0,1 and 0,9 and using the Gaussean approximation we have: on - ó. p (1-p) n - a -1.m b= δ. 1-p /p e c = m/p } -------------------(7) n = b + b² + 4 c/ 2 n´ = 1/p n cor = n + n' ---------- (8) We have to use the correction n' when p has a value between 0,25 and 0,75. The greek letters delta represents in the present esse the unilateral limits of the Gaussean distribution for the three conventional limits of precision : 1,64; 2,33; and 3,09 respectively. h we are only interested in having at least one individual, and m becomes equal to zero, the formula reduces to : c= m/p o para a = 1 a = { b + b²}² = b² = δ2 1- p /p }-----------------(9) n = 1/p n (cor) = n + n´ 2) If p is smaller than 0,1 we may use table 1 in order to find the mean m of a Poisson distribution and determine. n = m: p C) Which is the minimun number of individuals necessary for distinguishing two frequencies p1 and p2? 1) When pl and p2 are values between 0,1 and 0,9 we have: n = { δ p1 ( 1-pi) + p2) / p2 (1 - p2) n= 1/p1-p2 }------------ (13) n (cor) We have again to use the unilateral limits of the Gaussean distribution. The correction n' should be used if at least one of the valors pl or p2 has a value between 0,25 and 0,75. A more complicated formula may be used in cases where whe want to increase the precision : n (p1 - p2) δ { p1 (1- p2 ) / n= m δ = δ p1 ( 1 - p1) + p2 ( 1 - p2) c= m / p1 - p2 n = { b2 + 4 4 c }2 }--------- (14) n = 1/ p1 - p2 2) When both pl and p2 are smaller than 0,1 we determine the quocient (pl-r-p2) and procure the corresponding number m2 of a Poisson distribution in table 2. The value n is found by the equation : n = mg /p2 ------------- (15) D) What is the minimun number necessary for distinguishing three or more frequencies, p2 p1 p3. If the frequecies pl p2 p3 are values between 0,1 e 0,9 we have to solve the individual equations and sue the higest value of n thus determined : n 1.2 = {δ p1 (1 - p1) / p1 - p2 }² = Fiim n 1.2 = { δ p1 ( 1 - p1) + p1 ( 1 - p1) }² } -- (16) Delta represents now the bilateral limits of the : Gaussean distrioution : 1,96-2,58-3,29. 2) No table was prepared for the relatively rare cases of a comparison of threes or more frequencies below 0,1 and in such cases extremely high numbers would be required. E) A process is given which serves to solve two problemr of informatory nature : a) if a special type appears in n individuals with a frequency p(obs), what may be the corresponding ideal value of p(esp), or; b) if we study samples of n in diviuals and expect a certain type with a frequency p(esp) what may be the extreme limits of p(obs) in individual farmlies ? I.) If we are dealing with values between 0,1 and 0,9 we may use table 3. To solve the first question we select the respective horizontal line for p(obs) and determine which column corresponds to our value of n and find the respective value of p(esp) by interpolating between columns. In order to solve the second problem we start with the respective column for p(esp) and find the horizontal line for the given value of n either diretly or by approximation and by interpolation. 2) For frequencies smaller than 0,1 we have to use table 4 and transform the fractions p(esp) and p(obs) in numbers of Poisson series by multiplication with n. Tn order to solve the first broblem, we verify in which line the lower Poisson limit is equal to m(obs) and transform the corresponding value of m into frequecy p(esp) by dividing through n. The observed frequency may thus be a chance deviate of any value between 0,0... and the values given by dividing the value of m in the table by n. In the second case we transform first the expectation p(esp) into a value of m and procure in the horizontal line, corresponding to m(esp) the extreme values om m which than must be transformed, by dividing through n into values of p(obs). F) Partial and progressive tests may be recomended in all cases where there is lack of material or where the loss of time is less importent than the cost of large scale experiments since in many cases the minimun number necessary to garantee the results within the limits of precision is rather large. One should not forget that the minimun number really represents at the same time a maximun number, necessary only if one takes into consideration essentially the disfavorable variations, but smaller numbers may frequently already satisfactory results. For instance, by definition, we know that a frequecy of p means that we expect one individual in every total o(f1-p). If there were no chance variations, this number (1- p) will be suficient. and if there were favorable variations a smaller number still may yield one individual of the desired type. r.nus trusting to luck, one may start the experiment with numbers, smaller than the minimun calculated according to the formulas given above, and increase the total untill the desired result is obtained and this may well b ebefore the "minimum number" is reached. Some concrete examples of this partial or progressive procedure are given from our genetical experiments with maize.

Arsenicais e inseticidas orgânicos sôbre o algodoeiro em terras roxa e arenosa

The authors carried out a series of pots and plots experiments applying arsenical and organic insecticides to cotton plants cultivated in "terra roxa" and in a sandy soil. The first results were presented in 1947, to the la. Reunião Brasileira de Ciência do Solo (First Brazilian Congress of Soil Science); they pointed out the danger resulting from the accumulation of arsenic in soils due to the constant applications of arsenicais to control cotton pests; in the course of the time, the amount of residual arsenic in the soil would determine a decrease in cotton yield caused by its toxic effect on the crop. The following conclusions were drawn from the last three experiments: 1) the field experiment conducted in a sandy soil to which lead arseniate was applied in increasing rates produced a reduction of 50 per cent in the yield (the three highest doses were responsible for this result); by this way, the pot experiment published in 1947 was confirmed); 2) in the pot experiment with "terra roxa" toxic effects appeared only in the plants receiving the last dosis of lead arsenate; this result is explained quite naturally by a considerable absorption of the AsO4 --- ion by "terra roxa" colloidal material; furthermore the CaO, P2O5 and Fe2O3 content and the pH value (higher) would decrease the arsenate solubilization in the soil considered; 3) the pot experiment with organic insecticides applied in the rates usually employed in the control of cotton pests, showed that 10% D.D.TD. and 2.5% Rotenone did not affect cotton plants cultivated in a sandy soil; however we agree with FOSTER (1951), in the point that both mineral and organic insecticides must be applied in the minimum amount as possible; we also think that experiments like those should be carried out with the known insecticides, in several soil conditions and with many crops in order to determine the maximum limits of tolerancy.

Slime production and proteinase activity of Candida species isolated from blood samples and the comparison of these activities with minimum inhibitory concentration values of antifungal agents

Slime and proteinase activity of 54 strains consisting of 19 Candida parapsilosis and 35 C. albicans strains isolated from blood samples were investigated in this study. Ketoconazole, amphothericin B, and fluconazole susceptibility of Candida species were compared with slime production and proteinase activity of these species. For both Candida species, no correlation was detected between the slime activity and minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values of the three antifungal agents. For both Candida species no correlation was detected between the proteinase activity and the MIC values of amphothericin B, and fluconazole however, statistically significant difference, was determined between the proteinase activity and MIC values of ketoconazole (p = 0.007). Slime production was determined by using modified Christensen macrotube method and proteinase activity was measured by the method of Staib. Antifungal susceptibility was determined through the guidelines of National Committee for Laboratory Standards (NCCLS M27-A).