258 resultados para Vector Auto Regression
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OBJECTIVE:To analyse recent trends in oral cancer mortality, focusing specifically on differences concerning gender and race.METHODS:Official information on deaths and population in the city of Sao Paulo, 2003 to 2009, were used to estimate mortality rates from oral cancer (C00 to C10, International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision), adjusted for age and stratified by gender (females and males) and race (blacks and whites). The Prais-Winsten auto-regression procedure was used to analyse the time series.RESULTS:During the study period, 8,505 individuals living in the city of Sao Paulo died of oral cancer. Rates increased for females (rate of yearly increase = 4.4%, 95%CI 1.4;7.5), and levelled off for men, which represents an inversion of previous trends among genders in the city. Increases were identified for blacks, with a high rate of yearly increase of 9.1% (95%CI 5.5;12.9), and levelled off for whites. Oral cancer mortality in blacks almost doubled during the study period, and surpassed mortality in whites for almost all categories.CONCLUSIONS:Mortality presented a higher increase among women than in men, and it doubled among backs. The surveillance of trends of oral cancer mortality across gender and racial groups may contribute to implementing socially appropriate health policies, which concurrently reduce the burden of disease and the attenuation of unfair, avoidable and unnecessary inequalities in health.
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Inflation targeting, Taylor rule and money neutrality: a post-Keynesian critic. This paper critically discusses the inflation targeting regime proposed by orthodox economists, in particular the Taylor Rule. The article describes how the Taylor Rule assumes the argument of money neutrality inherited from the Quantitative Theory of Money. It discusses critically the ways of operation of the rule, and the negative impacts of the interest rate over the potential output. In this sense, the article shows the possible vicious circles of the monetary policy when money is not neutral, as is the case for post-keynesian economists. The relation of interest rates, potential output and the output gap is illustrated in some estimates using the methodology of Vector Auto-Regressive in the Brazilian case.
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Every year, autochthonous cases of Plasmodium vivax malaria occur in low-endemicity areas of Vale do Ribeira in the south-eastern part of the Atlantic Forest, state of São Paulo, where Anopheles cruzii and Anopheles bellator are considered the primary vectors. However, other species in the subgenus Nyssorhynchus of Anopheles (e.g., Anopheles marajoara) are abundant and may participate in the dynamics of malarial transmission in that region. The objectives of the present study were to assess the spatial distribution of An. cruzii, An. bellator and An. marajoara and to associate the presence of these species with malaria cases in the municipalities of the Vale do Ribeira. Potential habitat suitability modelling was applied to determine both the spatial distribution of An. cruzii, An. bellator and An. marajoara and to establish the density of each species. Poisson regression was utilized to associate malaria cases with estimated vector densities. As a result, An. cruzii was correlated with the forested slopes of the Serra do Mar, An. bellator with the coastal plain and An. marajoara with the deforested areas. Moreover, both An. marajoara and An. cruzii were positively associated with malaria cases. Considering that An. marajoara was demonstrated to be a primary vector of human Plasmodium in the rural areas of the state of Amapá, more attention should be given to the species in the deforested areas of the Atlantic Forest, where it might be a secondary vector.
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The quantitative structure property relationship (QSPR) for the boiling point (Tb) of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) was investigated. The molecular distance-edge vector (MDEV) index was used as the structural descriptor. The quantitative relationship between the MDEV index and Tb was modeled by using multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN), respectively. Leave-one-out cross validation and external validation were carried out to assess the prediction performance of the models developed. For the MLR method, the prediction root mean square relative error (RMSRE) of leave-one-out cross validation and external validation was 1.77 and 1.23, respectively. For the ANN method, the prediction RMSRE of leave-one-out cross validation and external validation was 1.65 and 1.16, respectively. A quantitative relationship between the MDEV index and Tb of PCDD/Fs was demonstrated. Both MLR and ANN are practicable for modeling this relationship. The MLR model and ANN model developed can be used to predict the Tb of PCDD/Fs. Thus, the Tb of each PCDD/F was predicted by the developed models.
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Durante o período pré-menstrual é comum a ocorrência de disfonia, e são poucas as mulheres que se dão conta dessa variação da voz dentro do ciclo menstrual (Quinteiro, 1989). OBJETIVO: Verificar se há diferença no padrão vocal de mulheres no período de ovulação em relação ao primeiro dia do ciclo menstrual, utilizando-se da análise perceptivo-auditiva, da espectrografia, dos parâmetros acústicos e quando esta diferença está presente, se é percebida pelas mulheres. FORMA DE ESTUDO: Caso-controle. MATERIAL E MÉTODO: A amostra coletada foi de 30 estudantes de Fonoaudiologia, na faixa etária de 18 a 25 anos, não-fumantes, com ciclo menstrual regular e sem o uso de contraceptivo oral. As vozes foram gravadas no primeiro dia de menstruação e no décimo-terceiro dia pós-menstruação (ovulação), para posterior comparação. RESULTADOS: Observou-se durante o período menstrual que as vozes estão rouco-soprosa de grau leve a moderado, instáveis, sem a presença de quebra de sonoridade, com pitch e loudness adequados e ressonância equilibrada. Há pior qualidade de definição dos harmônicos, maior quantidade de ruído entre eles e menor extensão dos harmônicos superiores. Encontramos uma f0 mais aguda, jitter e shimmer aumentados e PHR diminuída. CONCLUSÃO: No período menstrual há mudanças na qualidade vocal, no comportamento dos harmônicos e nos parâmetros vocais (f0,jitter, shimmer e PHR). Além disso, a maioria das estudantes de Fonoaudiologia não percebeu a variação da voz durante o ciclo menstrual.
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Apesar da alta prevalência entre idosos, a perda auditiva é pouco investigada. A audiometria é o teste padrão ouro para avaliação de perda auditiva, mas sua realização em larga escala traz dificuldades operacionais. O auto-relato pode ser uma alternativa. OBJETIVO: Determinar se uma única questão genérica tem validade para ser utilizada em pesquisas epidemiológicas. FORMA DE ESTUDO:Revisão sistemática. MATERIAL E MÉTODO: Foi realizada uma pesquisa da literatura médica nas bases de dados MEDLINE e LILACS, no período de 1990 a 2004. Foram analisados também artigos citados nas referências dos artigos identificados na busca eletrônica. Foram selecionados os artigos que compararam os resultados obtidos através de auto-relato, por meio de uma questão única genérica, e da audiometria tonal. Foram extraídos os dados de prevalência da perda auditiva, e de sensibilidade, especificidade e valores preditivos. RESULTADO: Foram incluídos dez estudos transversais. A questão única genérica parece ser um indicador aceitável de perda auditiva, sensível e razoavelmente específico, principalmente quando a perda é identificada como sendo a média tonal que inclua freqüências até 2 ou 4 kHz, a um nível de 40 dBNA, na melhor orelha. CONCLUSÃO: Uma questão única genérica tem uma boa performance em identificar idosos com perda auditiva e pode, portanto, ser recomendada para um estudo epidemiológico que não possa realizar medidas audiométricas.
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Uma reabilitação eficiente deve reduzir os efeitos da deficiência sobre as habilidades auditivas e comunicativas do indivíduo e aumentar o bem-estar psicossocial. OBJETIVOS:Verificar a viabilidade do uso de questionários de auto-avaliação e comparar os resultados da protetização em usuários de uma instituição pública federal, com e sem queixas relacionadas às características da amplificação. MATERIAL E MÉTODOS:25 indivíduos, de 13 a 77 anos de idade, usuários de próteses auditivas. Foram aplicados os questionários de auto-avaliação HHIE-S/HHIA (Hearing Handicap Inventory for the Elderly Screening Version ou for Adult) e APHAB (Abbreviated Profile of Hearing Aid Benefit), nos indivíduos sem (Grupo 1) e com queixas relacionados às características da amplificação (Grupo 2). RESULTADOS: Diferenças significantes não foram encontradas entre os grupos nos protocolos HHIE-S/HHIA e APHAB, exceto na subescala facilidade de comunicação do APHAB, onde o Grupo 1 obteve melhor benefício. Também evidenciou-se redução significativa da incapacidade auditiva com o uso das próteses em situações favoráveis de comunicação, ambientes reverberantes e na presença de ruído ambiental para ambos os grupos. CONCLUSÃO: Os questionários revelaram ser excelentes preditores das dificuldades enfrentadas pelos usuários, e diferenças significantes foram encontradas em situações favoráveis de comunicação, onde o grupo sem queixas obteve melhor benefício.
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O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar certas configurações recentes do Espiritismo no Brasil. Tomando como ponto de partida a bibliografia produzida sobre o tema, chama-se atenção, em primeiro lugar, para a omissão desta quanto às relações estabelecidas entre o Espiritismo e o Catolicismo; em seguida, deslocando o foco para a situação contemporânea, analisa-se as novas interlocuções que vêm sendo estabelecidas pelo Espiritismo como estratégia de inovação da doutrina. Baseada em estudos de caso, essa discussão se constitui em torno de três personagens - Chico Xavier, Waldo Vieira e Luiz Antonio Gasparetto -, os quais sintetizam, por meio de seus percursos pessoais, formas diversas de expressão e/ou contestação da "tradição" espírita.
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First-generation progeny of field-collected Psorophora ferox, Aedes scapularis, and Aedes serratus from the Rocio encephalitis epidemic zone in S.Paulo State, Brazil, were tested for vector competency in the laboratory. Psorophora ferox and Ae. scapularis are susceptible to per os infection with Rocio virus and can transmit the virus by bite following a suitable incubation period. Oral ID50S for the two species (10(4.1) and 10(4.3) Vero cell plaque forming units, respectively) did not differ significantly. Infection rates in Ae. serratus never exceeded 36%, and, consequently, an ID50 could not be calculated for this species. It is unlikely that Ae. serratus is an epidemiologically important vector of Rocio virus. The utility of an in vitro feeding technique for demonstrating virus transmission by infected mosquitoes and difficulties encountered in working with uncolonized progeny of field-collected mosquitoes are discussed.
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The reaction of nine vector species of Chagas' disease to infection by seven different Trypanosoma cruzi strains; Berenice, Y, FL, CL, S. Felipe, Colombiana and Gávea, are examined and compared. On the basis of the insects' ability to establish and maintain the infection, vector species could be divided into two distinct groups which differ in their reaction to an acute infection by T. cruzi. While the proportion of positive bugs was found to be low in Triatoma infestans and Triatoma dimidiata it was high, ranging from 96.9% to 100% in the group of wild (Rhodnius neglectus, Triatoma rubrovaria)and essentially sylvatic vectors in process of adaptation to human dwellings, maintained under control following successful insecticidal elimination of Triatoma infestans (Panstrongylus megistus, Triatoma sordida and Triatoma pseudomaculata). An intermediate position is held by Triatoma brasiliensis and Rhodnius prolixus. This latter has been found to interchange between domestic and sylvatic environments. The most important finding is the strikingly good reaction between each species of the sylvatic bugs and practically all T. cruzi strains herein studied, thus indicating that the factors responsible for the excellent reaction of P.megistus to infection by Y strain, as previously reported also come into operation in the reaction of the same vector species to acute infections by five of the remaining T.cruzi strains. Comparison or data reported by other investigators with those herein described form the basis of the discussion of Dipetalogaster maximus as regards its superiority as a xenodiagnostic agent.
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Previous studies (1982,1987) have emphasized the superiority of sylvatic vector species over domestic species as xenodiagnostic agents in testing hosts with acute or chronic infections by T. cruzi "Y" stock. The present study, which is unique in that it contains data on both infectivity rates produced by the same stock in 11 different vector species and also the reaction of the same vector species to seven different parasite stocks, establishes the general validity of linking efficiency of xenodiagnosis to the biotope of its agent. For example, infectivity rates produced by "São Felipe" stock varied from 82.5% to 98.3% in sylvatic vectors but decreased to 42.5% to 71.3% in domestic species. "Colombiana" stock produced in the same sylvatic vectors infectivity rates ranging from 12.5% to 45%. These shrank to 5%-22.5% in domestic bugs. The functional role of the biotope in the vector-parasite interaction has not been eluddated. But since this phenomenon has been observed to be stable and easy to reproduce, it leads us to believe that the results obtained are valid. Data presented also provide increasing evidence that the infectivity rates exhibited by bugs from xenodiagnosis in chronic hosts, are parasite stock specific. For example, infectivity rates produced by "Berenice", "Y", "FL" and "CL" varied in R. neglectus from 26.3% to 75%; in P. megistus from 56.3% to 83.8%; in T. sordida from 28.8% to 58.8% in T. pseudomaculata from 41.3% to 66.3% and in T. rubrovaria from 48.8% to 85%. Data from xenodiagnosis in the same hosts, carrying acute infections by the same parasite stocks, gave the five sylvatic vectors a positive rating of approximately 100%, thus suggesting that the heavy loads of parasites circulating in the acute hosts obscured the characteristic interspecific differences for the parasite stock. Nonetheless these latter were revealed in the same hosts with chronic infections stimulated by very low numbers of the same parasite stocks. Certain observations here described lead us to speculate as to the possibility of further results from other parasite stocks, allowing the association of the infectivity rates produced in bugs by different parasite stocks with the isoenzymic patterns revealed by these stocks.
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Three organophosphorus compounds- malathion, folithion and temephos- and two synthetic pyrethroids- alphamethrin and deltamethrin- were used for monitoring the susceptibility status of larvae and adults of six vector mosquitoe species: Culex quinquefasciatus (Filariasis) and Aedes albopictus (Dengue) (both laboratory and field strains); laboratory strains of Aedes aegypti (Dengue), Anopheles slephensi and Anopheles culicifacies (Malaria), and Culex tritaeniorhynchus (Japanese encephalitis) in India. From the LC50 values obtained for these insecticides, it was found that all mosquito species including the field strains of Cx. quinquefasciatus and Ae. albopictus were highly susceptible Except for Cx. quinquefasciatus (field strain) against malathion, 100% mortality was observed at the discriminating dosages recommended by World Health Organization. The residual effect of alphamethrin, deltamethrin, malathion and folithion at 25 mg (ai)/m² on different surfaces against six species of vector mosquitoes showed that alphamethrin was the most effective on all four treated surfaces (mud, plywood, cement and thatch). Nevertheless, residual efficacy lasted longer on thatch than on the other surfaces. Therefore, synthetic pyrethroids such as alphamethrin can be effectively employed in integrated vector control operations.
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Behaviour comparisons of Aedes scapularis and Ae. serratus are presented. Results were obtained by sampling Aedes adult mosquitoes at several places in the rural anthropic environment in the Ribeira Valley region of S. Paulo State, Brazil. Aedes dominance was shared by those two species, but Ae. scapularis Sshowed a clear tendency to frequent the modified environment, while Ae. serratus was to be found in the more preserved ones, here represented by the vestigial patchy forests. Regarding the open cultivated land and the dwelling environments, Ae. scapularis preponderates. Considering the regional developmental phases, this mosquito showed a remarkable increase in the modified environment differently from Ae. serratus that underwent a considerable decrease in migrating from the forest to the anthropic environment. As a consequence of these results it is reasonable to conclude that Ae. scapularis may be considered as an epidemiologically efficient vector and that it quite probably played this role in the Rocio encephalitis and other arbovirus epidemics.