Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

Development of a warning system for wheat blast caused by Pyricularia grisea

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) blast caused by Pyricularia grisea is a new disease in Brazil and no resistant cultivars are available. The interactions between temperature and wetness durations have been used in many early warning systems. Hence, growth chamber experiments to assess the effect of different temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35ºC) and the duration of spike-wetness (0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 hours) on the intensity of blast in cultivar BR23 were carried out. Each temperature formed an experiment and the duration of wetness the treatments. The highest blast intensity was observed at 30°C and increased as the duration of the wetting period increased while the lowest occurred at 25°C and 10 hours of spike wetness. Regardless of the temperature, no symptoms occurred when the wetting period was less than 10 hours but at 25°C and a 40 h wetting period blast intensity exceeded 85%. These variations in blast intensity as a function of temperature are explained by a generalized beta model and as a function of the duration of spike wetness by the Gompertz model. Disease intensity was modeled as a function of both temperature and the durations of spike wetness and the resulting equation provided a precise description of the response of P. grisea to temperatures and the durations of spike wetness. This model was used to construct tables that can be used to predict the intensity of P. grisea wheat blast based on the temperatures and the durations of wheat spike wetness obtained in the field.

Sooty blotch and flyspeck control with fungicide applications based on calendar, local IPM, and warning system

The objective of this work was to compare fungicide application timing for the control of sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS) of 'Fuji' apples in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. The following treatments were evaluated in two growing seasons: two warning system-based (modified version of the Brown-Sutton-Hartmann system) spray of captan plus thiophanate methyl, with or without summer pruning; two calendar/rain-based spray of captan or a mixture of captan plus thiophanate methyl; fungicide spray timing based on a local integrated pest management (IPM) for the control of summer diseases; and a check without spraying. Sooty blotch and flyspeck incidence over time and their severity at harvest were evaluated. The highest number of spray was required by calendar/rain-based treatments (eight and seven sprays in the sequential years). The warning system recommended five and three sprays, in the sequential years, which led to the highest SBFS control efficacy expressed by the reduced initial inoculum and disease progress rate. Summer pruning enhanced SBFS control efficacy, especially by suppressing SBFS signs which tended to be restrained to the peduncle region of the fruit. Sooty blotch and flyspeck can be managed both with calendar and the grower-based IPM practices in Brazil, but a reduced number of sprays is required when the warning system is used.

Application and validation of a warning system for grapevine downy mildew controlusing fungicides

Most warning systems for plant disease control are based on Vinho, in Bento Gonçalves - RS, during the growing seasons 2000/ weather models dependent on the relationships between leaf wetness 01, 2002/03 and 2003/2004, using the grape cultivar Isabel. The duration and mean air temperature in this period considering the conventional system used by local growers was compared with the target disease intensity. For the development of a warning system to new warning system by using different cumulative daily disease severity control grapevine downy mildew, the equation generated by Lalancette values (CDDSV) as the criterion to schedule fungicide application and et al. (7) was used. This equation was employed to elaborate a critical reapplication. In experiments conducted in 2003/04, CDDSV of 12 - period table and program a computerized device, which records, though 14 showed promising to schedule the first spraying and the interval electronic sensors, leaf wetness duration, mean temperature in this between fungicide applications, reducing by 37.5% the number of period and automatically calculates the daily value of probability of applications and maintaining the same control efficiency in leaves infection occurrence. The system was validated at Embrapa Uva e and bunches, similarly to the conventional system.

Warning system based on theoretical-experimental study of dispersion of soluble pollutants in rivers

Information about capacity of transport and dispersion of soluble pollutants in natural streams are important in the management of water resources, especially in planning preventive measures to minimize the problems caused by accidental or intentional waste, in public health and economic activities that depend on the use of water. Considering this importance, this study aimed to develop a warning system for rivers, based on experimental techniques using tracers and analytical equations of one-dimensional transport of soluble pollutants conservative, to subsidizing the decision-making in the management of water resources. The system was development in JAVA programming language and MySQL database can predict the travel time of pollutants clouds from a point of eviction and graphically displays the temporal distribution of concentrations of passage clouds, in a particular location, downstream from the point of its launch.

Antimalarial Drug Resistance: Surveillance and Molecular Methods for National Malaria Control Programmes

National malaria control programmes have the responsibility to develop a policy for malaria disease management based on a set of defined criteria as efficacy, side effects, costs and compliance. These will fluctuate over time and national guidelines will require periodic re-assessment and revision. Changing a drug policy is a major undertaking that can take several years before being fully operational. The standard methods on which a decision can be taken are the in vivo and the in vitro tests. The latter allow a quantitative measurement of the drug response and the assessment of several drugs at once. However, in terms of drug policy change its results might be difficult to interpret although they may be used as an early warning system for 2nd or 3rd line drugs. The new WHO 14-days in vivo test addresses mainly the problem of treatment failure and of haematological parameters changes in sick children. It gives valuable information on whether a drug still `works'. None of these methods are well suited for large-scale studies. Molecular methods based on detection of mutations in parasite molecules targeted by antimalarial drugs could be attractive tools for surveillance. However, their relationship with in vivo test results needs to be established

A four-year surveillance program for detection of Plasmodium falciparum chloroquine resistance in Honduras

Countries could use the monitoring of drug resistance in malaria parasites as an effective early warning system to develop the timely response mechanisms that are required to avert the further spread of malaria. Drug resistance surveillance is essential in areas where no drug resistance has been reported, especially if neighbouring countries have previously reported resistance. Here, we present the results of a four-year surveillance program based on the sequencing of the pfcrt gene of Plasmodium falciparum populations from endemic areas of Honduras. All isolates were susceptible to chloroquine, as revealed by the pfcrt “CVMNK” genotype in codons 72-76.

Weather based warning systems for bean angular-leaf-spot and anthracnose

Data available in the literature were used to develop a warning system for bean angular leaf spot and anthracnose, caused by Phaeoisariopsis griseola and Colletotrichum lindemuthianum, respectively. The model is based on favorable environmental conditions for the infectious process such as continuous leaf wetness duration and mean air temperature during this subphase of the pathogen-host relationship cycle. Equations published by DALLA PRIA (1977) showing the interactions of those two factors on the disease severity were used. Excell spreadsheet was used to calculate the leaf wetness period needed to cause different infection probabilities at different temperature ranges. These data were employed to elaborate critical period tables used to program a computerized electronic device that records leaf wetness duration and mean temperature and automatically shows the daily disease severity value (DDSV) for each disease. The model should be validated in field experiments under natural infection for which the daily disease severity sum (DDSS) should be identified as a criterion to indicate the beginning and the interval of fungicide applications to control both diseases.

Detection of acute cerebral hemorrhage in rabbits by magnetic induction

Acute cerebral hemorrhage (ACH) is an important clinical problem that is often monitored and studied with expensive devices such as computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and positron emission tomography. These devices are not readily available in economically underdeveloped regions of the world, emergency departments, and emergency zones. We have developed a less expensive tool for non-contact monitoring of ACH. The system measures the magnetic induction phase shift (MIPS) between the electromagnetic signals on two coils. ACH was induced in 6 experimental rabbits and edema was induced in 4 control rabbits by stereotactic methods, and their intracranial pressure and heart rate were monitored for 1 h. Signals were continuously monitored for up to 1 h at an exciting frequency of 10.7 MHz. Autologous blood was administered to the experimental group, and saline to the control group (1 to 3 mL) by injection of 1-mL every 5 min. The results showed a significant increase in MIPS as a function of the injection volume, but the heart rate was stable. In the experimental (ACH) group, there was a statistically significant positive correlation of the intracranial pressure and MIPS. The change of MIPS was greater in the ACH group than in the control group. This high-sensitivity system could detect a 1-mL change in blood volume. The MIPS was significantly related to the intracranial pressure. This observation suggests that the method could be valuable for detecting early warning signs in emergency medicine and critical care units.

CROSS-COUNTRY STUDY ON THE DETERMINANTS OF BANK FINANCIAL DISTRESS

ABSTRACTBank failures affect owners, employees, and customers, possibly causing large-scale economic distress. Thus, banks must evaluate operational risks and develop early warning systems. This study investigates bank failures in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the North America Free Trade Area (NAFTA), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the European Union, newly industrialized countries, the G20, and the G8. We use financial ratios to analyze and explore the appropriateness of prediction models. Results show that capital ratios, interest income compared to interest expenses, non-interest income compared to non-interest expenses, return on equity, and provisions for loan losses have significantly negative correlations with bank failure. However, loan ratios, non-performing loans, and fixed assets all have significantly positive correlations with bank failure. In addition, the accuracy of the logistic model for banks from NAFTA countries provides the best prediction accuracy regarding bank failure.

Effect of temperature, wetness duration and cultivar on the development of anthracnose in guava fruits

The development of a large number of postharvest diseases is closely associated with fruit ripeness. Environmental conditions may affect both the pathogen development and the fruit ripening rate. The aim of this study was to determine the most favorable temperature and wetness duration to the development of anthracnose in guava fruits. Cultivars 'Kumagai' (white pulp) and 'Pedro Sato' (red pulp) were inoculated with a conidial suspension of Colletotrichum gloeosporioides and C. acutatum and incubated at constant temperature ranging from 10 to 35ºC and wetness duration of 6 and 24 hours. Disease severity and incidence were evaluated at every two days during 12 days. No infection occurred at 10 and 35ºC, regardless of the wetness duration. The optimum conditions for fruit infection were 26 and 27ºC for 'Kumagai' and 25 and 26ºC for 'Pedro Sato', adopting 24 hours of wetness. In general, the disease development in 'Kumagai' cultivar was more affected by the wetness period, compared to 'Pedro Sato'. Disease severity for 'Kumagai' fruits was maximal between 25 and 30ºC , depending on the Colletotrichum species. Regarding 'Pedro Sato', the mean diameter of lesions was greater in fruits stored at 20, 25 and 30ºC , compared to 'Kumagai' cultivar, depending on the wetness period and the species. The incubation period (between 6 and 7 days) and the latent period (between 8 and 10 days) were minimal at 30ºC. The data generated in this study will be useful either for the development of a disease warning system or for the increase in the shelf life of guavas in the postharvest.

Performance, carcass traits and costs of Suffolk lambs finishing systems with early weaning and controlled suckling

The performance, carcass traits and finishing costs of Suffolk lambs were evaluated in three systems: (1) lambs weaned with 22 kg of body weight (BW) and supplemented with concentrate on pasture until slaughter; (2) lambs weaned with 22 kg BW and fed in feedlot until slaughter; (3) lambs maintained in controlled nursing after 22 kg BW and creep fed in feedlot until slaughter. Average daily gain (ADG) was 224 g/d for lambs weaned and supplemented with concentrate on pasture, 386 g/d for lambs weaned in feedlot and 481 g/d for lambs under controlled nursing. Empty body weight and visceral fat deposition were highest in lambs from feedlot systems. Carcass weights and carcass yields were highest for lambs in controlled nursing. Finishing total costs were highest in controlled nursing and lowest in the system with weaning in feedlot. High concentrate diet associated with controlled nursing in feedlot allowed lambs to reach the growth potential and carcasses with higher weights, higher yields and higher fat content. After weaning, lambs in feedlot fed with high concentrate diet had higher weight gain than lambs supplemented with concentrate on pasture. Carcasses produced under these two systems presented the same characteristics. The system with weaning in feedlot showed the lowest cost per kg carcass.

THE SCHISTOSOMULA TEGUMENT ANTIGEN AS A POTENTIAL CANDIDATE FOR THE EARLY SEROLOGICAL DIAGNOSIS OF SCHISTOSOMIASIS MANSONI

If Schistosoma mansoni infection could be detected in its early stages, especially before the egg deposition in the host tissues, the development of severe pathologic lesions could be efficiently prevented. We therefore developed an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay based on the detection of specific IgG against schistosomula antigens (ELISA-SmTeg). The assay was applied in sera samples from non-infected and infected mice collected seven and 15 days post-infection. The results were compared to the number of adult worms obtained by perfusion of the murine hepatic system 50 days post-infection. The sensitivity and specificity of the ELISA-SmTeg were 100% (p = 0.0032 and 0.0048 respectively for seven and 15 days of infection) with a cutoff value of 0.15 (p = 0.0002). Our findings show a novel low-cost serological assay using antigens which are easy to obtain, which was able to detect all the infected mice as early as seven days post-infection.

Toxocariasis of the central nervous system: with report of two cases

Clinical involvement of the nervous system in visceral larva migrans due to Toxocara is rare, although in experimental animals the larvae frequently migrate to the brain. A review of the literature from the early 50's to date found 29 cases of brain involvement in toxocariasis. In 20 cases, various clinical and laboratory manifestations of eosinophilic meningitis, encephalitis, myelitis or radiculopathy were reported. We report two children with neurological manifestations, in which there was cerebrospinal fluid pleocytosis with marked eosinophilia and a positive serology for Toxocara both in serum and CSF. Serology for Schistosoma mansoni, Cysticercus cellulosae, Toxoplasma and cytomegalovirus were negative in CSF, that was sterile in both cases. Improvement of signs and symptoms after specific treatment (albendazole or thiabendazole) was observed in the two cases. A summary of data described in the 25 cases previously reported is presented and we conclude that in cases of encephalitis and myelitis with cerebrospinal fluid pleocytosis and eosinophilia, parasitic infection of the central nervous system should be suspected and serology should be performed to establish the correct diagnosis and treatment.

Improving tuberculosis control through the partnership between university and the health system

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis (TB) control is linked to the availability of qualified methods for microbiological diagnostics; however, microscopy with limited sensitivity is the only method available in many locations. The objective of this study was to evaluate the introduction of culture, drug susceptibility testing (DST), and genotyping in the routine of a Municipal Program of Tuberculosis Control. METHODS: Direct microscopy of sputum and culture in Ogawa-Kudoh were performed on 1,636 samples from 787 patients. DST of positive cultures was performed by resazurin microtiter assay and genotyping by mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number tandem repeat. RESULTS: A total 91 patients with TB were identified. The culture increased case detection by 32% compared with the microscopy; acquired resistance was 3.3% and the genotyping showed high genetic diversity. CONCLUSIONS: Ogawa-Kudoh contributed significantly to the increase in case detection and is suitable for implementation in poor-resource locations. The acquired resistance rate was lower than that reported in a recent Brazilian survey. The high genetic diversity is possibly related to the high TB prevalence in the population, as well as to early detection and suitable treatment of patients. The interaction between research and health care is important for reorienting the practice, transferring technology, and improving TB control.