A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) na análise da dinâmica da vegetação da reserva biológica de Sooretama, ES

Técnicas de análises de séries temporais são utilizadas para caracterizar o comportamento de fenômenos naturais no domínio do tempo. Neste artigo, segundo a metodologia proposta por Box et al. (1994), 125 observações do Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) foram analisadas. Os valores modelados correspondem às variações temporais ocorridas no dossel florestal da reserva biológica de Sooretama, localizada ao Norte do Estado do Espírito Santo, no Município de Linhares. Os resultados indicaram que a metodologia foi adequada. Os resíduos do modelo ajustado são não correlacionados com distribuição normal, média zero e variância s². Com o menor valor do Critério de Informação de Akaike (AIC) -570,51, o modelo ajustado foi o Sazonal Auto-Regressivo Integrado de Médias Móveis (1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Description of continuous data using bar graphs: a misleading approach

INTRODUCTION:With the ease provided by current computational programs, medical and scientific journals use bar graphs to describe continuous data.METHODS:This manuscript discusses the inadequacy of bars graphs to present continuous data.RESULTS:Simulated data show that box plots and dot plots are more-feasible tools to describe continuous data.CONCLUSIONS:These plots are preferred to represent continuous variables since they effectively describe the range, shape, and variability of observations and clearly identify outliers. By contrast, bar graphs address only measures of central tendency. Bar graphs should be used only to describe qualitative data.

Rendering peacekeeping instrumental? The Brazilian approach to United Nations peacekeeping during the Lula da Silva years (2003-2010)

The article analyses how Brazilian state actions and policies regarding peace operations during the Presidency of Lula da Silva relate to the country's positions and attitudes towards United Nations peacekeeping. It argues that the inconsistencies identified on the Brazilian positions reflect the lack of a clear strategic horizon guiding the country's participation in UN peacekeeping, which consequentially hinders the country emergence as a great power.

Security issues during Lula's administration: from the reactive to the assertive approach

Brazil's security agenda during Lula's administration was not homogeneous through the two mandates: the first tenure (2002-2006) revealed a reactive approach towards security topics, while the second one (2006-2010) was more assertive. More specifically, the shift occurred in terms of both its geographical scope - once it incorporated global issues in a more systematic way -, and instruments through which the security agenda was exercised, given the multilateral initiative of Unasur's CDS

The rights approach to local public management: experiences from Brazil

The Fundação Getulio Vargas, São Paulo, Public Management and Citizenship Program was set up in 1996 with Ford Foundation support to identify and disseminate Brazilian subnational government initiatives in service provision that have a direct effect on citizenship. Already, the program has 2,500 different experiences in its data bank, the results of four annual cycles. The article draws some initial conclusions about the possibilities of a rights-based approach to public management and about the engagement of other agencies and civil society organizations.

Budgeting and resource allocation in universities: a public choice approach

The calls for colleges and universities to improve their productivity are coming thick and fast in Brazil. Many studies are suggesting evaluation systems and external criteria to control the quality of teaching and research in universities. Since universities and colleges are not profit-oriented organizations (considering only the legitimate and serious research and teaching organizations, of course), the traditional microeconomics and administrative variables used to measure efficiency do not have any direct function. An alternative would be to create an "as if" market control system to evaluate performance in universities and colleges. Internal budget and resources allocation mechanism can be used as incentive instruments to improve quality and productivity. It will be the main issue of this article.

Teaching and learning production and operations management: the journey from identity crisis to a cross, disciplinary approach

Este artigo tem suas raízes em algumas questões relacionadas à "forma" e ao "conteúdo" do que nós, professores, ensinamos na área de Administração da Produção e Operações. Inicialmente, descrevo a evolução histórica desse campo no Brasil. Em seguida, discuto a crise de identidade que o campo está sofrendo. Com o objetivo de apresentar respostas para essa situação, apresento seis propostas para o desenvolvimento e consolidação do campo. Finalmente, descrevo uma iniciativa prática, envolvendo uma disciplina específica da área, ensinada para alunos de pós-graduação. Essa iniciativa enfatiza a "dimensão do conteúdo" (de uma abordagem técnico-operacional para uma abordagem estratégico-gerencial) como também a "dimensão da forma" (do foco no ensino para o foco no aprendizado). O sucesso dessa experiência em curso confirma a coerência da agenda proposta e induz futuros aperfeiçoamentos.