151 resultados para Bayes credible intervals


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ABSTRACT Mugil liza Valenciennes, 1836 is an economically important food fish and has been recommended for aquaculture in South America. A total of 278 fishes were collected in the spring and summer of 2009 and 2010. These fish were sorted into sample groups according to their size class. We used Bayesian statistics and 95% credible intervals for each parameter tested were calculated. Fish studied harbored a total of 15 different species of parasites. Diversity of parasite species found on Mugil liza was greatest at the S.R.C. collection site, but evidenced a lower species richness than at A.R. site. The 1st size fishes of both sites evidenced greater parasite diversity than either 2nd or 3rd size fish. Differences observed could be explained by the different use of habitat types at the two sites or differential susceptibility to infection by parasites. The dominance of D. fastigatainfluenced observed results of lower community diversity indexes. New works elucidating different parasite life cycles within juvenile and adults ofM. liza in Argentina, promise to be important for determining the risk of the parasitism by zoonotic metacercariae A. (P.) longa and use of this fish as food and an economic resource, and the possible use of mullet parasites in other promising fields as indicators of biodiversity, and/ or water contamination.

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The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for survival and weight of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), farmed in cages and ponds in Brazil, and to predict genetic gain under different scenarios. Survival was recorded as a binary response (dead or alive), during harvest time in the 2008 grow-out period. Genetic parameters were estimated using a Bayesian mixed linear-threshold animal model via Gibbs sampling. The breeding population consisted of 2,912 individual fish, which were analyzed together with the pedigree of 5,394 fish. The heritabilities estimates, with 95% posterior credible intervals, for tagging weight, harvest weight and survival were 0.17 (0.09-0.27), 0.21 (0.12-0.32) and 0.32 (0.22-0.44), respectively. Credible intervals show a 95% probability that the true genetic correlations were in a favourable direction. The selection for weight has a positive impact on survival. Estimated genetic gain was high when selecting for harvest weight (5.07%), and indirect gain for tagging weight (2.17%) and survival (2.03%) were also considerable.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of the oscillatory breathing on the variability of RR intervals (VRR) and on prognostic significance after one year follow-up in subjects with left ventricular global systolic dysfunction. METHODS: We studied 76 subjects, whose age ranged from 40 to 80 years, paired for age and gender, divided into two groups: group I - 34 healthy subjects; group II - 42 subjects with left ventricular global systolic dysfunction (ejection fraction < 0.40). The ECG signals were acquired during 600s in supine position, and analyzed the variation of the thoracic amplitude and the VRR. Clinical and V-RR variables were applied into a logistic multivariate model to foretell survival after one year follow-up. RESULTS: Oscillatory breathing was detected in 35.7% of subjects in vigil state of group II, with a concentration of the spectral power in the very low frequency band, and was independent of the presence of diabetes, functional class, ejection fraction, cause of ventricular dysfunction and survival after one year follow-up. In the logistic regression model, ejection fraction was the only independent variable to predict survival. CONCLUSION: 1) Oscillatory breathing pattern is frequent during wakefulness in the left ventricular global systolic dysfunction and concentrates spectral power in the very low band of V-RR; 2) it does not relate to severity and cause of left ventricular dysfunction; 3) ejection fraction is the only independent predictive variable for survival in this group of subjects.

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The use of cover crops is important for the agricultural crop and soil management in order to improve the system and, consequently, to increase yield. Therefore, the present study analyzed the effect of crop residues of black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb.) (BO) and a cocktail (CO) of BO, forage turnip (Raphanus sativus L.) (FT) and common vetch (Vicia sativa L.) (V) on the emergence speed index (ESI), seedling emergence speed (SES) plant height and soybean yield in different intervals between cover crop desiccation with glyphosate 480 (3 L ha-1) and BRS 232 cultivar sowing. Plots of 5 x 2.5 m with 1 m of border received four treatments with BO cover crops and four with CO as well as a control for each cover crop, at random, with five replications. The plots were desiccated in intervals of 1, 10, 20 and 30 days before soybean seeding. The harvest was manual while yield was adjusted to 13% of moisture content. The experimental design was completely randomized with splitplots and means compared by the Scott and Knott test at 5% of significance. The results showed that CO of cover crops can be recommended for soybean to obtain a more vigorous seedling emergence, from 10 days after cover crop desiccation.

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ABSTRACT Sorghum arundinaceum (Desv.) Stapf is a weed that belongs to the Poaceae family and is widespread throughout Brazil. Despite the frequent occurrence, infesting cultivated areas, there is little research concerning the biology and physiology of this species. The objective of this research was to evaluate the growth, carbon partitioning and physiological characteristics of the weed Sorghum arundinaceum in greenhouse. Plants were collected at regular intervals of seven days, from 22 to 113 days after transplanting (DAT). In each sample, we determined plant height, root volume, leaf area and dry matter, and subsequently we perfomed the growth analysis, we have determined the dry matter partitioning among organs, the accumulation of dry matter, the specific leaf area, the relative growth rate and leaf weight ratio. At 36, 78 and 113 DAT, the photosynthetic and transpiration rates, stomatal conductance, CO2 concentration and chlorophyll fluorescence were evaluated. The Sorghum arundinaceum reached 1.91 in height, with slow initial growth and allocated much of the biomass in the roots. The photosynthetic rate and the maximum quantum yield of FSII are similar throughout the growth cycle. At maturity the Sorghum arundinaceum presents higher values of transpiration rate, stomatal conductance and non-photochemical quenching coefficient (NPQ).

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The percentual distributions of selected sites of cancer cases according to origin, sex and age are compared. Data were obtained from the Registry of Cancer of S. Paulo (School of Public Health of the University of S. Paulo, Brazil). The reference period for inhabitants of Japanese descent was 1969/78 and for those of Brazilian descent, the period was 1969/75. Standardized Proportionate Incidence Ratios (SPIR) with approximate 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) were evaluated using age specific Incidence Ratios of S. Paulo, 1973, as standards. The results agree with findings of previous works on mortality, but show different patterns according to origin. The well known fact that some sub-groups of a population may be different from the overall group is once again brought to the fore. Attention should be drawn to the differences detected for stomach, skin and prostate, in males, and for stomach, skin, cervix and uterus in females.

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INTRODUÇÃO: Como parte do programa de investigação sobre violência familiar e desnutrição severa na infância, especificamente um estudo do tipo caso-controle foi avaliada a confiabilidade dos instrumentos utilizados no processo de obtenção de dados. Estudou-se a confiabilidade de quatro componentes do instrumento principal: (a) as Escalas sobre Táticas de Conflitos (Conflicts Tactics Scales - CTS) que medem o grau de conflito/violência familiar; (b) o instrumento CAGE (Cut-down; Annoyed; Guilty & Eye-opener) usado para indicar suspeição de alcoolismo; (c) o NSDUQ (Non-student Drugs Use Questionnaire) que visa aferir o uso de drogas ilícitas; e (d) a medida antropométrica de comprimento. MÉTODO: Para os três primeiros componentes citados foram avaliadas a estabilidade (confiabilidade intra-observador ou teste-reteste) e a equivalência (confiabilidade inter-observador), usando-se os 50 primeiros sujeitos captados no estudo caso-controle de fundo. Para a análise, usou-se o índice Kappa (k) com ajustamento (pseudo-Bayes) para lidar com problemas de estimabilidade. Em relação ao componente "d", foi estudada somente a equivalência (n=73), usando-se o Coeficiente de Correlação Intraclasse (Intra-class Correlation Coefficient - ICC) como estimador. RESULTADOS: Todos os componentes mostraram estabilidade e equivalência aceitáveis. Quanto à estabilidade das CTS, CAGE e NSDUQ, as estimações de k foram em torno de 0,70, 0,78 e 0,85, respectivamente. Em relação à equivalência, encontrou-se os valores de 1,0 para as CTS e NSDUQ e 0,75 para CAGE. A equivalência estimada através do ICC para comprimento foi de 0,99. Algumas situações desviantes foram observadas. Os resultados apontam para uma adequada padronização dos observadores e refletem a boa qualidade do processo de aferição referente ao estudo de fundo, encorajando a equipe de pesquisa a prosseguir com maior segurança.

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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence rate of type 1 diabetes in the urban area of Santiago, Chile, from March 21, 1997 to March 20, 1998, and to assess the spatio-temporal clustering of cases during that period. METHODS: All sixty-one incident cases were located temporally (day of diagnosis) and spatially (place of residence) in the area of study. Knox's method was used to assess spatio-temporal clustering of incident cases. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate of type 1 diabetes was 4.11 cases per 100,000 children aged less than 15 years per year (95% confidence interval: 3.06--5.14). The incidence rate seems to have increased since the last estimate of the incidence calculated for the years 1986--1992 in the metropolitan region of Santiago. Different combinations of space-time intervals have been evaluated to assess spatio-temporal clustering. The smallest p-value was found for the combination of critical distances of 750 meters and 60 days (uncorrected p-value = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: Although these are preliminary results regarding space-time clustering in Santiago, exploratory analysis of the data method would suggest a possible aggregation of incident cases in space-time coordinates.

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OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

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OBJECTIVE: Selecting controls is one of the most difficult tasks in the design of case-control studies. Hospital controls may be inadequate and random controls drawn from the base population may be unavailable. The aim was to assess the use of hospital visitors as controls in a case-control study on the association of organochlorinated compounds and other risk factors for breast cancer conducted in the main hospital of the "Instituto Nacional de Câncer" -- INCA (National Cancer Institute) in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). METHODS: The study included 177 incident cases and 377 controls recruited among female visitors. Three different models of control group composition were compared: Model 1, with all selected visitors; Model 2, excluding women visiting relatives with breast cancer; and Model 3, excluding all women visiting relatives with any type of cancer. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to test the associations. RESULTS: Age-adjusted OR for breast cancer associated with risk factors other than family history of cancer, except smoking and breast size, were similar in the three models. Regarding family history of all cancers, except for breast cancer, there was a decreased risk in Models 1 and 2, while in Model 3 there was an increased risk, but not statistically significant. Family history of breast cancer was a risk factor in Models 2 and 3, but no association was found in Model 1. In multivariate analysis a significant risk of breast cancer was found when there was a family history of breast cancer in Models 2 and 3 but not in Model 1. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that while investigating risk factors unrelated to family history of cancer, the use of hospital visitors as controls may be a valid and feasible alternative.

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OBJETIVO: Analisar a distribuição espacial da hanseníase, identificar áreas de possível sub-registro de casos ou de provável alta transmissão (risco) e verificar a associação dessa distribuição à existência de casos de formas multibacilares. MÉTODOS: O estudo foi realizado em Recife, PE, de acordo com 94 bairros analisados. A fonte de coleta de dados foi o Sistema de Informações sobre Agravos de Notificação do Ministério da Saúde. Foi adotada uma abordagem ecológica com utilização do método bayesiano empírico para suavização local de taxas, a partir de informações de bairros vizinhos por adjacência. RESULTADOS: A ocorrência média anual foi de 17,3% de casos novos em menores de 15 anos (28,3% de formas multibacilares), indicando um processo de intensa transmissão da doença. A análise da distribuição espacial de hanseníase apontou três áreas onde se concentram bairros com taxas de detecção elevadas e que possuem baixa condição de vida. CONCLUSÕES: O emprego do modelo bayesiano, baseado em informações de unidades espaciais vizinhas, permitiu estimar novamente indicadores epidemiológicos. Foi possível identificar áreas prioritárias para o programa de controle de hanseníase no município, tanto pelo elevado número de ocorrências correlacionado à presença de formas multibacilares de doença em menores de 15 anos quanto pela existência de subnotificação.

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OBJECTIVE: To identify factors that lead people to visit a doctor in Brazil and assess differences between socioeconomic groups. METHODS: A cross-sectional study comprising 1,260 subjects aged 15 or more was carried out in southern Brazil. Demographic, socioeconomic, health needs and regular source of care data were analyzed concerning visits to a doctor within two months from the interview. Adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Adjusted PR showed that women having stressful life events, health insurance, and a regular doctor increased the outcome. A dose-related response was found with self-reported health, and the probability of visiting a doctor increased with health needs. Analysis in the chronic disease group revealed that uneducated lower income subjects had a 62% reduction in the chance of visiting a doctor compared to uneducated higher income ones. However, as it was seen a significant interaction between income and education, years of schooling increased utilization in this group. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest the existence of health inequity in the poorest group that could be overcome with education. Specific measures reinforcing the importance of having a regular doctor may also improve access in the underserved group.

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OBJECTIVE: Voluntary HIV counseling and testing are provided to all Brazilian pregnant women with the purpose of reducing mother-to-child HIV transmission. The purpose of the study was to assess characteristics of HIV testing and identify factors associated with HIV counseling and testing. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out comprising 1,658 mothers living in Porto Alegre, Brazil. Biological, reproductive and social variables were obtained from mothers by means of a standardized questionnaire. Being counseling about HIV testing was the dependent variable. Confidence intervals, chi-square test and hierarchical logistic model were used to determine the association between counseling and maternal variables. RESULTS: Of 1,658 mothers interviewed, 1,603 or 96.7% (95% CI: 95.7-97.5) underwent HIV testing, and 51 or 3.1% (95% CI: 2.3-4.0) were not tested. Four (0.2%) refused to undergo testing after counseling. Of 51 women not tested in this study, 30 had undergone the testing previously. Of 1,603 women tested, 630 or 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9-41.7) received counseling, 947 or 59.2% (95% CI: 56.6-61.5) did not, and 26 (1.6%) did not inform. Low income, lack of prenatal care, late beginning of prenatal care, use of rapid testing, and receiving prenatal in the public sector were variables independently associated with a lower probability of getting counseling about HIV testing. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings confirmed the high rate of prenatal HIV testing in Porto Alegre. However, women coming from less privileged social groups were less likely to receive information and benefit from counseling.