Modeling the Effect of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River Flow, Kenya

Increasingly erratic flow in the upper reaches of the Mara River, has directed attention to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and Landsat imagery were utilized in order to 1) map existing land use practices, 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on the water flux of the upper Mara River. This study found that land use change scenarios resulted in more erratic discharge while climate change scenarios had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. The model results showed the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes but land use changes reduce dry season flows which is a major problem in the basin. Deforestation increased the peak flows which translated to increased sediment loading in the Mara River.

A Modeling Approach to Determine the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River

With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool 5 (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the 10 upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results 15 show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and 20 water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.

Integrated surface-ground water modeling in wetlands with improved methods to simulate vegetative resistance to flow

In topographically flat wetlands, where shallow water table and conductive soil may develop as a result of wet and dry seasons, the connection between surface water and groundwater is not only present, but perhaps the key factor dominating the magnitude and direction of water flux. Due to their complex characteristics, modeling waterflow through wetlands using more realistic process formulations (integrated surface-ground water and vegetative resistance) is an actual necessity. This dissertation focused on developing an integrated surface – subsurface hydrologic simulation numerical model by programming and testing the coupling of the USGS MODFLOW-2005 Groundwater Flow Process (GWF) package (USGS, 2005) with the 2D surface water routing model: FLO-2D (O’Brien et al., 1993). The coupling included the necessary procedures to numerically integrate and verify both models as a single computational software system that will heretofore be referred to as WHIMFLO-2D (Wetlands Hydrology Integrated Model). An improved physical formulation of flow resistance through vegetation in shallow waters based on the concept of drag force was also implemented for the simulations of floodplains, while the use of the classical methods (e.g., Manning, Chezy, Darcy-Weisbach) to calculate flow resistance has been maintained for the canals and deeper waters. A preliminary demonstration exercise WHIMFLO-2D in an existing field site was developed for the Loxahatchee Impoundment Landscape Assessment (LILA), an 80 acre area, located at the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wild Life Refuge in Boynton Beach, Florida. After applying a number of simplifying assumptions, results have illustrated the ability of the model to simulate the hydrology of a wetland. In this illustrative case, a comparison between measured and simulated stages level showed an average error of 0.31% with a maximum error of 2.8%. Comparison of measured and simulated groundwater head levels showed an average error of 0.18% with a maximum of 2.9%. The coupling of FLO-2D model with MODFLOW-2005 model and the incorporation of the dynamic effect of flow resistance due to vegetation performed in the new modeling tool WHIMFLO-2D is an important contribution to the field of numerical modeling of hydrologic flow in wetlands.

The exchange of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus in dwarf and fringe mangroves of the oligotrophic southern Everglades

Water management has altered both the natural timing and volume of freshwater delivered to Everglades National Park. This is especially true for Taylor Slough and the C-111 basin, as hypersaline events in Florida Bay have been linked to reduced freshwater flow in this area. In light of recent efforts to restore historical flows to the eastern Everglades, an understanding of the impact of this hydrologic shift is needed in order to predict the trajectory of restoration. I conducted a study to assess the importance of season, water chemistry, and hydrologic conditions on the exchange of nutrients in dwarf and fringe mangrove wetlands along Taylor Slough. I also performed mangrove leaf decomposition studies to determine the contribution of biotic and abiotic processes to mass loss, the effect of salinity and season on degradation rates, and the importance of this litter component as a rapid source of nutrients. ^ Dwarf mangrove wetlands consistently imported total nutrients (C, N, and P) and released NO2− +NO3 −, with enhanced release during the dry season. Ammonium flux shifted from uptake to release over the study period. Dissolved phosphate activity was difficult to discern in either wetland, as concentrations were often below detection limits. Fluxes of dissolved inorganic nitrogen in the fringe wetland were positively related to DIN concentrations. The opposite was found for total nitrogen in the fringe wetland. A dynamic budget revealed a net annual export of TN to Florida Bay that was highest during the wet season. Simulated increases and decreases in freshwater flow yielded reduced exports of TN to Florida Bay as a result of changes in subsystem and water flux characteristics. Finally, abiotic processes yielded substantial nutrient and mass losses from senesced leaves with little influence of salinity. Dwarf mangrove leaf litter appeared to be a considerable source of nutrients to the water column of this highly oligotrophic wetland. To summarize, nutrient dynamics at the subsystem level were sensitive to short-term changes in hydrologic and seasonal conditions. These findings suggest that increased freshwater flow has the potential to lead to long-term, system-level changes that may reach as far as eastern Florida Bay. ^