Modeling the Effect of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River Flow, Kenya

Increasingly erratic flow in the upper reaches of the Mara River, has directed attention to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and Landsat imagery were utilized in order to 1) map existing land use practices, 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on the water flux of the upper Mara River. This study found that land use change scenarios resulted in more erratic discharge while climate change scenarios had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. The model results showed the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes but land use changes reduce dry season flows which is a major problem in the basin. Deforestation increased the peak flows which translated to increased sediment loading in the Mara River.

Hydro-Meteorology and Water Budget of the Mara River Basin Under Land Use Change Scenarios

Mara is a transboundary river located in Kenya and Tanzania and considered to be an important life line to the inhabitants of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem. It is also a source of water for domestic water supply, irrigation, livestock and wildlife. The alarming increase of water demand as well as the decline in the river flow in recent years has been a major challenge for water resource managers and stakeholders. This has necessitated the knowledge of the available water resources in the basin at different times of the year. Historical rainfall, minimum and maximum stream flows were analyzed. Inter and intra-annual variability of trends in streamflow are discussed. Landsat imagery was utilized in order to analyze the land use land cover in the upper Mara River basin. The semi-distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the basin water balance and understand the hydrologic effect of the recent land use changes from forest-to-agriculture. The results of this study provided the potential hydrological impacts of three land use change scenarios in the upper Mara River basin. It also adds to the existing literature and knowledge base with a view of promoting better land use management practices in the basin.

A Modeling Approach to Determine the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River

With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool 5 (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the 10 upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results 15 show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and 20 water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.

Ten Year Study on Water Flushing Times and Water Quality in Southern Taylor Slough, Everglades National Park, FL

The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of wetland restoration on the water balance, flushing time, and water chemistry of southern Taylor Slough, a major water way in Everglades National Park. Water balance and flushing time equations were calculated on a monthly time step from 2001 – 2011. Water chemistry of major ions and nutrients were analyzed and correlated with water flushing times. Results showed that evapotranspiration followed by water volume had the greatest influence on flushing time. The flushing times varied between 3 and 78 days, with longer times observed between October and December, and the shorter times between March and May. Ion concentrations at the coastal areas decreased with increased flushing times. Increased surface water inflow that resulted from restoration projects and water management changes were productive in the rainy season and should result in increased flushing times and decreased ion concentrations in Taylor Slough.

Cold Season Physiology of Arctic Plants

The cold season in the Arctic extends over eight to nine months during which ecosystem gas exchange and water balance of arctic plants have been largely unexplored. The overall objective of this thesis was to examine two critical gaps in our knowledge about tundra cold season processes – ecosystem respiration at very low temperatures and water uptake during the winter-spring transition. I determined the temperature response of ecosystem respiration of tundra monoliths down to temperatures as low as can be expected under snow-covered conditions (-15 °C). Temperature responses fit the Arrhenius function well with Q10 values over the range of -15 to 15 °C varying from 6.1 to 4.8. I used deuterium-enriched water (2H2O) as a tracer to evaluate water uptake of evergreen plants at snowmelt when soils are largely frozen. The results revealed that evergreen plants take up water under snow cover, possibly via roots but undoubtedly by foliar uptake.