A Longitudinal Study of Consumer Perceptions of Travel Websites: The Case of Hong Kong

Knowing how consumers perceive travel websites can help practitioners better understand consumers’ online requirements. This paper reports the findings of a longitudinal study that investigated the changes and trends in the profile and behavior of online travel-website users in Hong Kong. The profiles of e-buyers and e-browsers in 2009, when compared with those established by prior studies conducted in 2000 and 2007, point in a new direction for practitioners and researchers investigating online travelwebsite user behavior. The results indicated that more middle-aged consumers have become online travel-website users, and that website security and price are perceived to be the most important factors for travel-website use by both e-browsers and e-buyers.

Prolegomenon to a History of Travel

The author attempts to provide a definition of travel by comparing it with the instinctive migration of animals and birds and viewing its changes over time. As a study of motion voluntarily undertaken, a history of travel can contribute to a better understanding of human beings

Investigation of the causes of serious injury and fatal crashes: An analysis using econometric models

The rate of fatal crashes in Florida has remained significantly higher than the national average for the last several years. The 2003 statistics from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the latest available, show a fatality rate in Florida of 1.71 per 100 million vehicle-miles traveled compared to the national average of 1.48 per 100 million vehicle-miles traveled. The objective of this research is to better understand the driver, environmental, and roadway factors that affect the probability of injury severity in Florida. ^ In this research, the ordered logit model was used to develop six injury severity models; single-vehicle and two-vehicle crashes on urban freeways and urban principal arterials and two-vehicle crashes at urban signalized and unsignalized intersections. The data used in this research included all crashes that occurred on the state highway system for the period from 2001 to 2003 in the Southeast Florida region, which includes the Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties.^ The results of the analysis indicate that the age group and gender of the driver at fault were significant factors of injury severity risk across all models. The greatest risk of severe injury was observed for the age groups 55 to 65 and 66 and older. A positive association between injury severity and the race of the driver at fault was also found. Driver at fault of Hispanic origin was associated with a higher risk of severe injury for both freeway models and for the two-vehicle crash model on arterial roads. A higher risk of more severe injury crash involvement was also found when an African-American was the at fault driver on two-vehicle crashes on freeways. In addition, the arterial class was also found to be positively associated with a higher risk of severe crashes. Six-lane divided arterials exhibited the highest injury severity risk of all arterial classes. The lowest severe injury risk was found for one way roads. Alcohol involvement by the driver at fault was also found to be a significant risk of severe injury for the single-vehicle crash model on freeways. ^

Improving Analytical Travel Time Estimation for Transportation Planning Models

This dissertation aimed to improve travel time estimation for the purpose of transportation planning by developing a travel time estimation method that incorporates the effects of signal timing plans, which were difficult to consider in planning models. For this purpose, an analytical model has been developed. The model parameters were calibrated based on data from CORSIM microscopic simulation, with signal timing plans optimized using the TRANSYT-7F software. Independent variables in the model are link length, free-flow speed, and traffic volumes from the competing turning movements. The developed model has three advantages compared to traditional link-based or node-based models. First, the model considers the influence of signal timing plans for a variety of traffic volume combinations without requiring signal timing information as input. Second, the model describes the non-uniform spatial distribution of delay along a link, this being able to estimate the impacts of queues at different upstream locations of an intersection and attribute delays to a subject link and upstream link. Third, the model shows promise of improving the accuracy of travel time prediction. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 13% for a set of field data from Minnesota Department of Transportation (MDOT); this is close to the MAPE of uniform delay in the HCM 2000 method (11%). The HCM is the industrial accepted analytical model in the existing literature, but it requires signal timing information as input for calculating delays. The developed model also outperforms the HCM 2000 method for a set of Miami-Dade County data that represent congested traffic conditions, with a MAPE of 29%, compared to 31% of the HCM 2000 method. The advantages of the proposed model make it feasible for application to a large network without the burden of signal timing input, while improving the accuracy of travel time estimation. An assignment model with the developed travel time estimation method has been implemented in a South Florida planning model, which improved assignment results.

Hybrid approaches to estimating freeway travel times using point traffic detector data

The accurate and reliable estimation of travel time based on point detector data is needed to support Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) applications. It has been found that the quality of travel time estimation is a function of the method used in the estimation and varies for different traffic conditions. In this study, two hybrid on-line travel time estimation models, and their corresponding off-line methods, were developed to achieve better estimation performance under various traffic conditions, including recurrent congestion and incidents. The first model combines the Mid-Point method, which is a speed-based method, with a traffic flow-based method. The second model integrates two speed-based methods: the Mid-Point method and the Minimum Speed method. In both models, the switch between travel time estimation methods is based on the congestion level and queue status automatically identified by clustering analysis. During incident conditions with rapidly changing queue lengths, shock wave analysis-based refinements are applied for on-line estimation to capture the fast queue propagation and recovery. Travel time estimates obtained from existing speed-based methods, traffic flow-based methods, and the models developed were tested using both simulation and real-world data. The results indicate that all tested methods performed at an acceptable level during periods of low congestion. However, their performances vary with an increase in congestion. Comparisons with other estimation methods also show that the developed hybrid models perform well in all cases. Further comparisons between the on-line and off-line travel time estimation methods reveal that off-line methods perform significantly better only during fast-changing congested conditions, such as during incidents. The impacts of major influential factors on the performance of travel time estimation, including data preprocessing procedures, detector errors, detector spacing, frequency of travel time updates to traveler information devices, travel time link length, and posted travel time range, were investigated in this study. The results show that these factors have more significant impacts on the estimation accuracy and reliability under congested conditions than during uncongested conditions. For the incident conditions, the estimation quality improves with the use of a short rolling period for data smoothing, more accurate detector data, and frequent travel time updates.

Development of an integrated surface and subsurface model of Everglades National Park

An integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model of Everglades National Park (ENP) was developed using MIKE SHE and MIKE 11 modeling software. The model has a resolution of 400 meters, covers approximately 1050 square miles of ENP, includes 110 miles of drainage canals with a variety of hydraulic structures, and processes hydrological information, such as evapotranspiration, precipitation, groundwater levels, canal discharges and levels, and operational schedules. Calibration was based on time series and probability of exceedance for water levels and discharges in the years 1987 through 1997. Model verification was then completed for the period of 1998 through 2005. Parameter sensitivity in uncertainty analysis showed that the model was most sensitive to the hydraulic conductivity of the regional Surficial Aquifer System, the Manning's roughness coefficient, and the leakage coefficient, which defines the canal-subsurface interaction. The model offers an enhanced predictive capability, compared to other models currently available, to simulate the flow regime in ENP and to forecast the impact of topography, water flows, and modifying operation schedules.

A methodology to estimate time varying user responses to travel time and travel time reliability in a road pricing environment

Road pricing has emerged as an effective means of managing road traffic demand while simultaneously raising additional revenues to transportation agencies. Research on the factors that govern travel decisions has shown that user preferences may be a function of the demographic characteristics of the individuals and the perceived trip attributes. However, it is not clear what are the actual trip attributes considered in the travel decision- making process, how these attributes are perceived by travelers, and how the set of trip attributes change as a function of the time of the day or from day to day. In this study, operational Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) archives are mined and the aggregated preferences for a priced system are extracted at a fine time aggregation level for an extended number of days. The resulting information is related to corresponding time-varying trip attributes such as travel time, travel time reliability, charged toll, and other parameters. The time-varying user preferences and trip attributes are linked together by means of a binary choice model (Logit) with a linear utility function on trip attributes. The trip attributes weights in the utility function are then dynamically estimated for each time of day by means of an adaptive, limited-memory discrete Kalman filter (ALMF). The relationship between traveler choices and travel time is assessed using different rules to capture the logic that best represents the traveler perception and the effect of the real-time information on the observed preferences. The impact of travel time reliability on traveler choices is investigated considering its multiple definitions. It can be concluded based on the results that using the ALMF algorithm allows a robust estimation of time-varying weights in the utility function at fine time aggregation levels. The high correlations among the trip attributes severely constrain the simultaneous estimation of their weights in the utility function. Despite the data limitations, it is found that, the ALMF algorithm can provide stable estimates of the choice parameters for some periods of the day. Finally, it is found that the daily variation of the user sensitivities for different periods of the day resembles a well-defined normal distribution.

Travel Marketing: Industry Relationships and Benefits

In the discussion - Travel Marketing: Industry Relationships and Benefits - by Andrew Vladimir, Visiting Assistant Professor, School of Hospitality Management at Florida International University, the author initially states: “A symbiotic relationship exists among the various segments of the travel and tourism industry. The author has solicited the thinking of 37experts and leaders in the field in a book dealing with these relationships and how they can be developed to benefit the industry. This article provides some salient points from those contributors.” This article could be considered a primer on networking for the hospitality industry. It has everything to do with marketing and the relationships between varied systems in the field of travel and tourism. Vladimir points to instances of success and failure in marketing for the industry at large. And there are points of view from thirty-seven contributing sources here. “Miami Beach remains a fitting example of a leisure product that has been unable to get its act together,” Vladimir shares a view. “There are some first class hotels, a few good restaurants, alluring beaches, and a splendid convention center, but there is no synergism between them, no real affinity, and so while visitors admire the Fontainebleau Hilton and enjoy the food at Joe's Stone Crabs, the reputation of Miami Beach as a resort remains sullied,” the author makes a point. In describing cohesiveness between exclusive systems, Vladimir says, “If each system can get a better understanding of the inner workings of neighboring related systems, each will ultimately be more successful in achieving its goals.” The article is suggesting that exclusive systems aren’t really exclusive at all; or at least they shouldn’t be. In a word – competition – drives the market, and in order for a property to stay afloat, aggressive marketing integrated with all attendant resources is crucial. “Tisch [Preston Robert Tisch, currently – at the time of this writing - the Postmaster General of the United States and formerly president of Lowe’s Hotels and the New York Visitors and Convention Bureau], in talking about the need for aggressive marketing says: “Never...ever...take anything for granted. Never...not for a moment...think that any product or any place will survive strictly on its own merits.” Vladimir not only sources several knowledgeable representatives in the field of hospitality and tourism, but he also links elements as disparate as real estate, car rental, cruise and airlines, travel agencies and traveler profiles to illustrate his points on marketing integration. In closing, Vladimir quotes the Honorable Donna Tuttle, Undersecretary of Commerce for Travel and Tourism, “Uniting the components of this industry in an effective marketing coalition that can compete on an equal footing with often publicly-owned foreign tourism conglomerates and multi-national consortia must be a high priority as the United States struggles to maintain and expand its share of a rapidly changing global market.”

Airline Deregulation, Computerized Reservation Systems, and Travel Agents

With the beginning of airline deregulations in 1978, U.S. domestic operations were in for a period of turmoil, adjustment, vibrancy, entrepreneurship, and change. A great deal has been written about the effects of deregulation on airlines and their personnel, and on the public at large. Less attention has been paid to the effects on travel agents and on the seminal role of computerized reservations systems (CRSs) in the flowering of travel agencies. This article examines both of these phenomena.

Incorporating variable peak -to -daily ratios in the equilibrium traffic assignment procedure of the Florida Standard Urban Transportation Modeling Structure (FSUTMS)

The standard highway assignment model in the Florida Standard Urban Transportation Modeling Structure (FSUTMS) is based on the equilibrium traffic assignment method. This method involves running several iterations of all-or-nothing capacity-restraint assignment with an adjustment of travel time to reflect delays encountered in the associated iteration. The iterative link time adjustment process is accomplished through the Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) volume-delay equation. Since FSUTMS' traffic assignment procedure outputs daily volumes, and the input capacities are given in hourly volumes, it is necessary to convert the hourly capacities to their daily equivalents when computing the volume-to-capacity ratios used in the BPR function. The conversion is accomplished by dividing the hourly capacity by a factor called the peak-to-daily ratio, or referred to as CONFAC in FSUTMS. The ratio is computed as the highest hourly volume of a day divided by the corresponding total daily volume. ^ While several studies have indicated that CONFAC is a decreasing function of the level of congestion, a constant value is used for each facility type in the current version of FSUTMS. This ignores the different congestion level associated with each roadway and is believed to be one of the culprits of traffic assignment errors. Traffic counts data from across the state of Florida were used to calibrate CONFACs as a function of a congestion measure using the weighted least squares method. The calibrated functions were then implemented in FSUTMS through a procedure that takes advantage of the iterative nature of FSUTMS' equilibrium assignment method. ^ The assignment results based on constant and variable CONFACs were then compared against the ground counts for three selected networks. It was found that the accuracy from the two assignments was not significantly different, that the hypothesized improvement in assignment results from the variable CONFAC model was not empirically evident. It was recognized that many other factors beyond the scope and control of this study could contribute to this finding. It was recommended that further studies focus on the use of the variable CONFAC model with recalibrated parameters for the BPR function and/or with other forms of volume-delay functions. ^

The Study of Clustering of Taiwanese Tourists' Motivations to Hong Kong

Abstract Driven by the political and economic forces of cross-strait, Taiwan has become one of the major source markets for Hong Kong tourism industry since 1987. The major purposes of this study were to investigate the following factors (1) The influential factors of travel motivation, (2) The clusters of travel motivations, (3) The marketing segmentation of clusters of Taiwanese tourists to visit Hong Kong. Through ten travel agents, self-report surveys were distributed to collect data from 366 Taiwanese travelers. Hence, four push factors and six pull factors were identified as travel motivations through the factor analysis. Combined with the cluster analysis; five new groups were founded. Finally, five clusters which process unique profiles (location difference, visiting frequency, travel satisfaction, and destination loyalty) were addressed. The suggestions of developing effective market strategies to attract Taiwanese tourists to Hong Kong were also provided.

The Church of Our Blessed Redeemer Who Walked Upon the Waters

The Church of Our Blessed Redeemer Who Walked Upon the Waters is a collection of short stories about Elwyn Parker, a devout pianist who becomes a worldly car salesman. "Thirty Fingers," "My Father's Business," and "Apostate" introduce Elwyn, a saint at church and a trouble-making evangelist at school, who nevertheless finds himself in a love affair with an older woman, Sister Morrisohn. In "Captivity," Elwyn, a college freshman, experiences worldliness, then grows to resent and ultimately reject Sister Morrisohn. In "The Leap," Elwyn is back at the piano, but unemployed and unhappily married. He finds comfort only in his decade-old affair. In "The Lord of Travel," Elwyn, a car salesman, appears bereft of his former morals until he hoodwinks Ida, who reminds him of the now deceased Sister Morrisohn. Elwyn repairs Ida's car, redeeming himself in the process.

A study of the top executive conference centers in the United States and an examination of the corresponding corporate meetings market

Introduction: The United States today has become "meeting-conscious." The complexity of conducting business has led to the need for sophisticated coordination of decision-making processes on all levels of the organization. Company meetings have played an increasingly important role in the success and future of many companies. Strategies and decisions are developed at meetings that can determine future policies of crucial importance. Executive training can mean the difference in whether the company will even survive. Large and growing companies have increased their off-premise meeting budgets annually in spite of the state of the economy. however, the rising costs of travel and lodging have made management monitor these budgets more closely than ever. Thus, the need to use every dollar efficiently has compelled companies to examine newer methods of running meetings and alternatives to the usage of typical off-premise meeting facilities. The importance of off-premise meetings in the United States economy has greatly increased due to the billions of dollars spent annually. These factors make it vital to explore the effectiveness of time and monetary expenditures. Up until the mid-1960's, company meetings were held in facilities of various design and purpose, none of which were specifically designed for the small to medium corporate meeting. Upon gathering information concerning the meetings market and the corporate meeting planner, certain individuals endeavored to change the situation. This study is designed to investigate this new concept, which will hereafter be referred to as "conference center." For the purpose of this study, the following two definitions will be used. 1. Conference center - that meeting facility primarily marketing its facilities for the small to medium-sized corporate meeting. The center is operated by specialists aware of market needs in as much detail as are those people working for the company involved. On-premise sleeping rooms are not mandatory provided such facilities are within easy access. 2. Meeting planner - that person within an organization who has primary responsibility for arranging off-premise meetings and all other related items necessary for meeting effectiveness. This person may spend anywhere from 10 to 100l of his time in this capacity. The conference center has effectively satisfied the need for specialized corporate meeting facilities. This study will show the depth of the corporate meetings market and trace the growth and development of this relatively new conference center concept. Information will also be compiled on the top centers in the country. It is hoped that by presenting this research meeting planners will become more aware of the nature and location of these centers, especially for use by the small to medium-sized company. Such exposure of the centers will hopefully increase existing demand and enable the construction of new, innovative centers.

Guest Editorial: Debunking the Myths

The modem retail travel industry has been plagued by myths created by popular media in an effort to create hype and readership, rather than report an accurate portrayal of the extraordinary health of the travel distribution system. Regardless of the structural changes in the travel industry, the outlook for growth and profitability of travel agencies and travel agents has never been better

A Look Back To Look Forward: New Patterns In The Supply/Demand Equation In The Lodging Industry

In his dialogue entitled - A Look Back to Look Forward: New Patterns In The Supply/Demand Equation In The Lodging Industry - by Albert J. Gomes, Senior Principal, Pannell Kerr Forster, Washington, D.C. What the author intends for you to know is the following: “Factors which influence the lodging industry in the United States are changing that industry as far as where hotels are being located, what clientele is being served, and what services are being provided at different facilities. The author charts these changes and makes predictions for the future.” Gomes initially alludes to the evolution of transportation – the human, animal, mechanical progression - and how those changes, in the last 100 years or so, have had a significant impact on the hotel industry. “A look back to look forward treats the past as prologue. American hoteliers are in for some startling changes in their business,” Gomes says. “The man who said that the three most important determinants for the success of a hotel were “location, location, location” did a lot of good only in the short run.” Gomes wants to make you aware of the existence of what he calls, “locational obsolescence.” “Locational obsolescence is a fact of life, and at least in the United States bears a direct correlation to evolutionary changes in transportation technology,” he says. “…the primary business of the hospitality industry is to serve travelers or people who are being transported,” Gomes expands the point. Tied to the transportation element, the author also points out an interesting distinction between hotels and motels. In addressing, “…what clientele is being served, and what services are being provided at different facilities,” Gomes suggests that the transportation factor influences these constituents as well. Also coupled with this discussion are oil prices and shifts in transportation habits, with reference to airline travel being an ever increasing method of travel; capturing much of the inter-city travel market. Gomes refers to airline deregulation as an impetus. The point being, it’s a fluid market rather than a static one, and [successful] hospitality properties need to be cognizant of market dynamics and be able to adjust to the variables in their marketplace. Gomes provides many facts and figures to bolster his assertions. Interestingly and perceptively, at the time of this writing, Gomes alludes to America’s deteriorating road and bridge network. As of right now, in 2009, this is a major issue. Gomes rounds out this study by comparing European hospitality trends to those in the U.S.