Quantifying the effects of temperature and concentration on variable-density flow in numerical modeling of groundwater systems: Implications for predictive uncertainty and data collection

Groundwater systems of different densities are often mathematically modeled to understand and predict environmental behavior such as seawater intrusion or submarine groundwater discharge. Additional data collection may be justified if it will cost-effectively aid in reducing the uncertainty of a model's prediction. The collection of salinity, as well as, temperature data could aid in reducing predictive uncertainty in a variable-density model. However, before numerical models can be created, rigorous testing of the modeling code needs to be completed. This research documents the benchmark testing of a new modeling code, SEAWAT Version 4. The benchmark problems include various combinations of density-dependent flow resulting from variations in concentration and temperature. The verified code, SEAWAT, was then applied to two different hydrological analyses to explore the capacity of a variable-density model to guide data collection. ^ The first analysis tested a linear method to guide data collection by quantifying the contribution of different data types and locations toward reducing predictive uncertainty in a nonlinear variable-density flow and transport model. The relative contributions of temperature and concentration measurements, at different locations within a simulated carbonate platform, for predicting movement of the saltwater interface were assessed. Results from the method showed that concentration data had greater worth than temperature data in reducing predictive uncertainty in this case. Results also indicated that a linear method could be used to quantify data worth in a nonlinear model. ^ The second hydrological analysis utilized a model to identify the transient response of the salinity, temperature, age, and amount of submarine groundwater discharge to changes in tidal ocean stage, seasonal temperature variations, and different types of geology. The model was compared to multiple kinds of data to (1) calibrate and verify the model, and (2) explore the potential for the model to be used to guide the collection of data using techniques such as electromagnetic resistivity, thermal imagery, and seepage meters. Results indicated that the model can be used to give insight to submarine groundwater discharge and be used to guide data collection. ^

Effects of climate variability on transparency and thermal structure in subtropical, monomictic Lake Annie, Florida

Lake Annie is a small (37 ha), relatively deep (21 m) sinkhole lake on the Lake Wales Ridge (LWR) of central Florida with a long history of study, including monthly limnological monitoring since June, 1983. The record shows high variability in Secchi disc transparency, which ranged from < 1 to 15 m with a trend toward decreasing values over the latter decade of record. We examined available regional meteorological, groundwater and limnological data to determine the drivers and thermal consequences of variability in water transparency. While total nutrient concentrations and chlorophyll-a were highest during years of low transparency, stepwise regression showed that none of these had a signifi cant effect on transparency after water color was taken into account. Repeated years of high precipitation between 1993–2005 caused an increase in water table height, increasing the transport of dissolved substances from the vegetated watershed into the lake. Groundwater stage explained 73 % of the interannual variability in water transparency. Transparency, in turn, explained 85 % of the interannual variability in the heat budget for the lake, which ranged from 1.8 × 108 to 4.1 × 108 Joules m–2 yr–1, encompassing the range reported across Florida lakes. While surface water temperature was not affected by transparency, depths below 5 m warmed faster during the stratifi ed period during years having a lower rate of light extinction. We show that an increase in precipitation of 20 cm per year reduces the depth of the summer euphotic zone and thermocline by 1.9 and 1.6 m, respectively, and causes a 1-month reduction in the duration of winter mixing in this monomictic lake. Because biota have been shown to respond to shifts in light and heat distribution of much smaller magnitude than exhibited here, our work suggests that subtle changes in precipitation linked to climate fl uctuations may have signifi cant physical as well as biotic consequences.

Cascading ecological effects of low-level phosphorus enrichment in the Florida Everglades

Few studies have examined long-term ecological effects of sustained low-level nutrient enhancement on wetland biota. To determine sustained effects of phosphorus (P) addition on Everglades marshes we added P at low levels (5, 15, and 30 µg L-1 above ambient) for 5 yr to triplicate 100-m flow-through channels in pristine marsh. A cascade of ecological responses occurred in similar sequence among treatments. Although the rate of change increased with dosing level, treatments converged to similar enriched endpoints, characterized most notably by a doubling of plant biomass and elimination of native, calcareous periphyton mats. The full sequence of biological changes occurred without an increase in water total P concentration, which remained near ambient levels until Year 5. This study indicates that Everglades marshes have a near-zero assimilative capacity for P without a state change, that ecosystem responses to enrichment accumulate over time, and that downstream P transport mainly occurs through biota rather than the water column.

Geochemical determination of the fate and transport of injected fresh wastewater to a deep saline aquifer

Deep well injection into non-potable saline aquifers of treated domestic wastewater has been used in Florida for decades as a safe and effective alternative to ocean outfall disposal. The objectives of this study were to determine the fate and transport of injected wastewater at two deep well injection sites in Miami Dade County, Florida, USA. Detection of ammonium in the Middle Confining units of the Floridan aquifer above the injection zone at both sites has been interpreted as evidence of upward migration of injected wastewater, posing a risk to underground sources of drinking water. Historical water quality data, including ammonia, chloride, temperature, and pH from existing monitoring wells at both sites from 1983 to 2008, major ions collected monthly from 2006 and 2008, and a synoptic sampling event for stable isotopes, tritium, and dissolved gases in 2008, were used to determine the source of ammonium in groundwater and possible migration pathways. Geochemical modeling was used to determine possible effects of injected wastewater on native water and aquifer matrix geochemistry. Injected wastewater was determined to be the source of elevated ammonium concentrations above ambient water levels, based on the results of major ion concentrations, tritium, dissolved noble gases and 15N isotopes analyses. Various possible fluid migration pathways were identified at the sites. Data for the south site suggest buoyancy-driven vertical pathways to overlying aquifers bypassing the confining units, with little mixing of injected wastewater with native water as it migrated upward. Once it is introduced into an aquifer, the injectate appeared to migrate advectively with the regional groundwater flow. Geochemical modeling indicated that CO 2-enriched injected wastewater allowed for carbonate dissolution along the vertical pathways, enhancing permeability along these flowpaths. At the north site, diffusive upward flow through the confining units or offsite vertical pathways were determined to be possible, however no evidence was detected for any on-site confining unit bypass pathway. No evidence was observed at either site of injected wastewater migration to the Upper Floridan aquifer, which is used as a municipal water supply and for aquifer storage and recovery.

Movement Effects on the Flow Physics and Nutrient Delivery in Engineered Valvular Tissues

Mechanical conditioning has been shown to promote tissue formation in a wide variety of tissue engineering efforts. However the underlying mechanisms by which external mechanical stimuli regulate cells and tissues are not known. This is particularly relevant in the area of heart valve tissue engineering (HVTE) owing to the intense hemodynamic environments that surround native valves. Some studies suggest that oscillatory shear stress (OSS) caused by steady flow and scaffold flexure play a critical role in engineered tissue formation derived from bone marrow derived stem cells (BMSCs). In addition, scaffold flexure may enhance nutrient (e.g. oxygen, glucose) transport. In this study, we computationally quantified the i) magnitude of fluid-induced shear stresses; ii) the extent of temporal fluid oscillations in the flow field using the oscillatory shear index (OSI) parameter, and iii) glucose and oxygen mass transport profiles. Noting that sample cyclic flexure induces a high degree of oscillatory shear stress (OSS), we incorporated moving boundary computational fluid dynamic simulations of samples housed within a bioreactor to consider the effects of: 1) no flow, no flexure (control group), 2) steady flow-alone, 3) cyclic flexure-alone and 4) combined steady flow and cyclic flexure environments. We also coupled a diffusion and convention mass transport equation to the simulated system. We found that the coexistence of both OSS and appreciable shear stress magnitudes, described by the newly introduced parameter OSI-t , explained the high levels of engineered collagen previously observed from combining cyclic flexure and steady flow states. On the other hand, each of these metrics on its own showed no association. This finding suggests that cyclic flexure and steady flow synergistically promote engineered heart valve tissue production via OSS, so long as the oscillations are accompanied by a critical magnitude of shear stress. In addition, our simulations showed that mass transport of glucose and oxygen is enhanced by sample movement at low sample porosities, but did not play a role in highly porous scaffolds. Preliminary in-house in vitro experiments showed that cell proliferation and phenotype is enhanced in OSI-t environments.

Understanding Immigrants' Travel Behavior in Florida: Neighborhood Effects and Behavioral Assimilation

The goal of this study was to develop Multinomial Logit models for the mode choice behavior of immigrants, with key focuses on neighborhood effects and behavioral assimilation. The first aspect shows the relationship between social network ties and immigrants’ chosen mode of transportation, while the second aspect explores the gradual changes toward alternative mode usage with regard to immigrants’ migrating period in the United States (US). Mode choice models were developed for work, shopping, social, recreational, and other trip purposes to evaluate the impacts of various land use patterns, neighborhood typology, socioeconomic-demographic and immigrant related attributes on individuals’ travel behavior. Estimated coefficients of mode choice determinants were compared between each alternative mode (i.e., high-occupancy vehicle, public transit, and non-motorized transport) with single-occupant vehicles. The model results revealed the significant influence of neighborhood and land use variables on the usage of alternative modes among immigrants. Incorporating these indicators into the demand forecasting process will provide a better understanding of the diverse travel patterns for the unique composition of population groups in Florida.

Movement effects on the flow physics and nutrient delivery in engineered valvular tissues

Mechanical conditioning has been shown to promote tissue formation in a wide variety of tissue engineering efforts. However the underlying mechanisms by which external mechanical stimuli regulate cells and tissues are not known. This is particularly relevant in the area of heart valve tissue engineering (HVTE) owing to the intense hemodynamic environments that surround native valves. Some studies suggest that oscillatory shear stress (OSS) caused by steady flow and scaffold flexure play a critical role in engineered tissue formation derived from bone marrow derived stem cells (BMSCs). In addition, scaffold flexure may enhance nutrient (e.g. oxygen, glucose) transport. In this study, we computationally quantified the i) magnitude of fluid-induced shear stresses; ii) the extent of temporal fluid oscillations in the flow field using the oscillatory shear index (OSI) parameter, and iii) glucose and oxygen mass transport profiles. Noting that sample cyclic flexure induces a high degree of oscillatory shear stress (OSS), we incorporated moving boundary computational fluid dynamic simulations of samples housed within a bioreactor to consider the effects of: 1) no flow, no flexure (control group), 2) steady flow-alone, 3) cyclic flexure-alone and 4) combined steady flow and cyclic flexure environments. We also coupled a diffusion and convention mass transport equation to the simulated system. We found that the coexistence of both OSS and appreciable shear stress magnitudes, described by the newly introduced parameter OSI-:τ: explained the high levels of engineered collagen previously observed from combining cyclic flexure and steady flow states. On the other hand, each of these metrics on its own showed no association. This finding suggests that cyclic flexure and steady flow synergistically promote engineered heart valve tissue production via OSS, so long as the oscillations are accompanied by a critical magnitude of shear stress. In addition, our simulations showed that mass transport of glucose and oxygen is enhanced by sample movement at low sample porosities, but did not play a role in highly porous scaffolds. Preliminary in-house in vitro experiments showed that cell proliferation and phenotype is enhanced in OSI-:τ: environments.^