Structure of international cooperation in trade, investment and environment

This dissertation analyzes the obstacles against further cooperation in international economic relations. The first essay explains the gradual nature of trade liberalization. I show that existence of asymmetric information between governments provides a sufficient reason for gradualism to exist. Governments prefer starting small to reduce the cost of partner’s betrayal when there is sufficient degree of information asymmetry regarding the partner’s type. Learning about partner’s incentive structure enhances expectations, encouraging governments to increase their current level of cooperation. Specifically, the uninformed government’s subjective belief for the trading partner being good is improved as the partner acts cooperatively. This updated belief, in turn, lowers the subjective probability of future betrayal, enabling further progress in cooperation. The second essay analyzes the relationship between two countries facing two policy dilemmas in an environment with two way goods and capital flows. When issues are independent and countries are symmetric, signing separate agreements for tariffs (Free Trade Agreements-FTA) and for taxes (Tax Treaties-TT) provides the identical level of enforcement as signing a linked agreement. However, linkage can still improve the joint welfare by transferring the slack enforcement power in a case of asymmetric issues or countries. I report non-results in two cases where the policy issues are interconnected due to technological spillover effect of FDI. Moreover, I show that linking the agreements actually reduces enforcement when agreements are linked under a limited punishment rule and policy variables are strategic substitutes. The third essay investigates the welfare/enforcement consequences of linking trade and environmental agreements. In the standard literature, linking the agreements generate non-trivial results only when there is structural relation between the issues. I focus on institutional design of the linkage and show that even if environmental aspects of international trade are negligible linking the agreements might still have some interesting welfare implications under current GATT Rules. Specifically, when traded goods are substitutes in consumption, linking the environmental agreement with trade agreement under the Withdrawal of Equivalent Concession Rule (Article XXVIII) will reduce the enforcement. However, enforcement in environmental issue increases when the same rule is implemented in the absence of linkage.

Sustainable rural development through alternative economic networks: Redefining relations in the commodity chain for export vegetables in western Guatemala

The current research considers the capacity of a local organic food system for producer and consumer empowerment and sustainable development outcomes in western Guatemala. Many have argued that the forging of local agricultural networks linking farmers, consumers, and supporting institutions is an effective tool for challenging the negative economic, environmental, and sociopolitical impacts associated with industrial models of global food production. But does this work in the context of agrarian development in the developing world? Despite the fact that there is extensive literature concerning local food system formation in the global north, there remains a paucity of research covering how the principles of local food systems are being integrated into agricultural development projects in developing countries. My work critically examines claims to agricultural sustainability and actor empowerment in a local organic food system built around non-traditional agricultural crops in western Guatemala. Employing a mixed methods research design involving twenty months of participant observation, in-depth interviewing, surveying, and a self-administered questionnaire, the project evaluates the sustainability of this NGO-led development initiative and local food movement along several dimensions. Focusing on the unique economic and social networks of actors and institutions at each stage of the commodity chain, this research shows how the growth of an alternative food system continues to be shaped by context specific processes, politics, and structures of conventional food systems. Further, it shows how the specifics of context also produce new relationships of cooperation and power in the development process. Results indicate that structures surrounding agrarian development in the Guatemalan context give rise to a hybrid form of development that at the same time contests and reinforces conventional models of food production and consumption. Therefore, participation entails a host of compromises and tradeoffs that result in mixed successes and setbacks, as actors attempt to refashion conventional commodity chains through local food system formation.^

Xinjiang and Central Asia: Ethno-religious, political, and economic interactions

The neighboring regions of Xinjiang and Central Asia, linked historically on the famous Silk Road, later developed separately as a result of the incorporation of the former into China and the latter into the Russian Empire and Soviet Union. Thus, interaction between Xinjiang and Central Asia has been constrained by the nature of the Sino-Russian or Sino-Soviet relationship. However, the demise of the Soviet Union--which resulted in the independence of five Central Asian states--and the recent economic reforms in the People's Republic of China suggest dramatic new possibilities for interregional cooperation.^ In this thesis, an historical and comparative approach is employed to study Chinese policies in Xinjiang and Soviet policies in Central Asia, and concludes that despite several decades of separate development, the common ethnic and religious origins of the indigenous peoples and their former ties will facilitate greater interaction between the two regions. ^

Pivot or periphery? Xinjiang's regional development and Chinese-Central Asian relations at the century's end

Xinjiang, once described by Owen Lattimore as the "pivot of Asia", has played a strategically important role in China's national defense and security. Historically linked on the famous Silk Road with Central Asia, Xinjiang was crucial to East-West economic and cultural exchanges. During the period of Russian/Soviet expansion into Central Asia and Sino-Soviet rivalry, China's need for Xinjiang's defense and territorial integrity became paramount, and consequently Xinjiang's economy was relegated to the periphery.^ The demise of the Soviet Union--which resulted in the independence of five Central Asian states--and China's reform suggest dramatic new possibilities for Xinjiang's regional development as well as interregional cooperation. As China has begun to shift regional emphasis to the interior, Xinjiang's economic development will be accelerated. With the growth of Sino/Xinjiang-Central Asian relations, Xinjiang's importance will not only be borne out in terms of defense and security, but more significantly in terms of trade and economics. At the century's end and the beginning of the 21st century, Xinjiang will likely move away from the periphery and play an increasingly pivotal role in the economy. ^

Social construction of economic exchanges: A Weberian approach

The subject-matter of this dissertation is the social construction of economic exchanges, with an emphasis on market transactions. Applying a Weberian approach, the dissertation analyzes the social construction of economic exchanges at the following analytical levels: the agency-level, the institutional-structural level and the comparative-historical level. At the agency-level, the dissertation explores the role that human actors and social actions play in economic exchanges, especially market transactions. Theoretically elaborated and empirically examined is the assumption of market-economic exchanges as particular types of social action. At the institutional-structural level, the dissertation examines the relations of society and culture to market-economic exchanges. The assumption that the market economy is situated in and influenced by a broader social-cultural framework is advanced and evaluated in light of empirical findings. At the comparative-historical level, the dissertation engages in an analysis of the social construction of economic exchanges across various societies and over time. The assumption of the historical specificity of the market economy is reexamined, and the social construction of economic exchanges in traditional, capitalist and post-socialist societies is subject to comparative investigation. In the conclusion, further theoretical, methodological and empirical implications as well as directions for future analyses are discussed. ^

China's Relations with Brazil and Argentina and Implications for U.S. Security Concerns [Student's Paper Series]

This study on China’s relations with Brazil and Argentina, as well as its implications for U.S. concerns examines two main questions: Why China’s increasing influence on Brazil and Argentina may be considered a cause for U.S. security concerns? And if this is the case, how do China’s strategic alliances with the two countries has impacted U.S. leadership? In an effort to look at China’s influence from multidimensional angles and beyond China’s visible economic influence in these two countries, this paper argues that China’s interest in the Latin American region, with a focus on brazil and Argentina, responds to a more crafted, pragmatic and tailored vision with long-term strategic and political goals. The results of this study reveal that China – avoiding intra-regional competition through a strategic diversification of sectors – has been able to secure critical resources for its population as well as promote enduring alliances in the region that could represent a plausible cause of concern for U.S. interests. In this regard, China’s avoidance of a direct challenge to traditional partners’ influence has responded to the gaps left by a gradual, but steady lack of U.S. involvement.

Constructing threat: How Americans identify economic competitors

China's emergence as an economic powerhouse has often been portrayed as threatening to America's economic strength and to its very identity as "the global hegemon." The media's alarmist response to an economic competitor is familiar to those who remember US-Japanese relations in the 1980s. In order to better understand the basis of American threat perception, this study explores the independent and interactive impact of three variables (perceptions of the Other's capabilities, perceptions of the Other as a threat versus as an opportunity, and perceptions of the Other's political culture) on attitudes toward two different economic competitors (Japan 1977-1995 and China 1985-2011). Utilizing four methods (historical process tracing, public polling data analysis, social scientific experimentation, and content analysis), this study demonstrates that increases in the Other's economic capabilities have a much smaller impact on attitudes than is commonly believed. It further shows that while perceptions of threat/opportunity played a significant role in shaping attitudinal response toward Japan, perceptions of political culture are the most important factor driving attitudes toward China today. This study contributes to a better understanding of how states react to threats and construct negative images of their economic rivals. It also helps to explain the current Sino-American relationship and enables better predictions as to its potential future course. Finally, these findings contribute to cultural explanations of the democratic peace phenomenon and provide a boundary condition (political culture) for the liberal proposition that opportunity ameliorates conflict in the economic realm.^

Essays on the political economy of trade policy and economic *development

This dissertation studies the political economy of trade policy in a developing country, namely Turkey, under different economic and political regimes. The research analyzes the effects of these different regimes on the import structure, the trade policy and the industrialization process in Turkey and derives implications for aggregate welfare. ^ In the second chapter, the effects of trade liberalization policies on import demand are examined. Using disaggregated industry-level data, import demand elasticities for various sectors have been computed, analyzed under different economic regimes, and compared with those of developed countries. The results are statistically significant and reliable, and conform to the predictions of economic theory. Estimation of these elasticities is also a necessary ingredient for the third chapter of the dissertation. ^ The third chapter examines the predictions of the state-of-the-art “Protection For Sale” model of Grossman and Helpman (1994). Employing advanced econometric methods and a unique data set, strong support is found for the fundamental predictions of the model in the context of Turkey. Specifically, the government is found to attach a much higher weight to social welfare than to political contributions. This weight is higher under the democratic regime than under the dictatorship, a result potentially of interest to all researchers in the area of political economy. ^ The fourth chapter looks at the effects of industry concentration and import price shocks on protection, promotion and the choice of policy instruments in Turkey. In this context, it examines and finds support for the predictions of some well-known models in the literature. ^

Women-led community development organizations (CDOs) in Miami-Dade County: A model of community development efforts impacting the economic security of women

Recent studies on the economic status of women in Miami-Dade County (MDC) reveal an alarming rate of economic insecurity and significant obstacles for women to achieve economic security. Consistent barriers to women's economic security affect not only the health and wellbeing of women and their families, but also economic prospects for the community. A key study reveals in Miami-Dade County, "Thirty-nine percent of single female-headed families with at least one child are living at or below the federal poverty level" and "over half of working women do not earn adequate income to cover their basic necessities" (Brion 2009, 1). Moreover, conventional measures of poverty do not adequately capture women's struggles to support themselves and their families, nor do they document the numbers of women seeking basic self-sufficiency. Even though there is lack of accurate data on women in the county, which is a critical problem, there is also a dearth of social science research on existing efforts to enhance women's economic security in Miami-Dade County. My research contributes to closing the information gap by examining the characteristics and strategies of women-led community development organizations (CDOs) in MDC, working to address women's economic insecurity. The research is informed by a framework developed by Marilyn Gittell, who pioneered an approach to study women-led CDOs in the United States. On the basis of research in nine U.S. cities, she concluded that women-led groups increased community participation and "by creating community networks and civic action, they represent a model for community development efforts" (Gittell, et al. 2000, 123). My study documents the strategies and networks of women-led CDOs in MDC that prioritize women's economic security. Their strategies are especially important during these times of economic recession and government reductions in funding towards social services. The focus of the research is women-led CDOs that work to improve social services access, economic opportunity, civic participation and capacity, and women's rights. Although many women-led CDOs prioritize building social infrastructures that promote change, inequalities in economic and political status for women without economic security remain a challenge (Young 2004). My research supports previous studies by Gittell, et al., finding that women-led CDOs in Miami-Dade County have key characteristics of a model of community development efforts that use networking and collaboration to strengthen their broad, integrated approach. The resulting community partnerships, coupled with participation by constituents in the development process, build a foundation to influence policy decisions for social change. In addition, my findings show that women-led CDOs in Miami-Dade County have a major focus on alleviating poverty and economic insecurity, particularly that of women. Finally, it was found that a majority of the five organizations network transnationally, using lessons learned to inform their work of expanding the agency of their constituents and placing the economic empowerment of women as central in the process of family and community development.

The Council on Foreign Relations and the Grand Area: Case Studies on the Origins of the IMF and the Vietnam War

This article examines the role of corporate elites within the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in establishing the framework for the IMF and the rationale for the Vietnam War. Drawing on the CFR's War-Peace Study Groups, established in World War II as a conduit between corporate elites and the U.S. government, the author first analyzes the role of corporate power networks in grand area planning. He shows that such planning provided a framework for postwar foreign and economic policymaking. He then documents the relationship between corporate grand area planning and the creation of the IMF. The analysis concludes with an examination of the relationship between grand area planning and the Vietnam War.

A Study of Stock Market Fluctuations and their Relations to Business Conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

Ecological, economic, and organizational dimensions of organic farming in Miami-Dade County

The purpose of this research was to determine what challenges small-scale organic farmers face in choosing their particular production, marketing, and organizational strategies in Miami-Dade County. Rapid soil assessments were used on six organic farms to determine the effects of soil nutrient management in terms of pH, soil organic matter (SOM), and phosphorus (P). Potential costs of inputs were documented for each farm to determine the largest challenges facing the profitability of organic farms. A production, marketing, and organizational analysis determined how farmers shape their inter-farm competitive and cooperative relations. Preliminary findings from soil, input, labor, marketing, and organizational factors indicate that soil health varies dramatically from farm to farm, inputs and labor constitute significant costs, and marketing, production, and organizational strategies show no signs of immediate growth.

Constructing Threat: How Americans Identify Economic Competitors

China’s emergence as an economic powerhouse has often been portrayed as threatening to America’s economic strength and to its very identity as “the global hegemon.” The media’s alarmist response to an economic competitor is familiar to those who remember US-Japanese relations in the 1980s. In order to better understand the basis of American threat perception, this study explores the independent and interactive impact of three variables (perceptions of the Other’s capabilities, perceptions of the Other as a threat versus as an opportunity, and perceptions of the Other’s political culture) on attitudes toward two different economic competitors (Japan 1977-1995 and China 1985-2011). Utilizing four methods (historical process tracing, public polling data analysis, social scientific experimentation, and content analysis), this study demonstrates that increases in the Other’s economic capabilities have a much smaller impact on attitudes than is commonly believed. It further shows that while perceptions of threat/opportunity played a significant role in shaping attitudinal response toward Japan, perceptions of political culture are the most important factor driving attitudes toward China today. This study contributes to a better understanding of how states react to threats and construct negative images of their economic rivals. It also helps to explain the current Sino-American relationship and enables better predictions as to its potential future course. Finally, these findings contribute to cultural explanations of the democratic peace phenomenon and provide a boundary condition (political culture) for the liberal proposition that opportunity ameliorates conflict in the economic realm.

Women-led Community Development Organizations (CDOs) in Miami-Dade County: A Model of Community Development Efforts Impacting the Economic Security of Women

Recent studies on the economic status of women in Miami-Dade County (MDC) reveal an alarming rate of economic insecurity and significant obstacles for women to achieve economic security. Consistent barriers to women’s economic security affect not only the health and wellbeing of women and their families, but also economic prospects for the community. A key study reveals in Miami-Dade County, “Thirty-nine percent of single female-headed families with at least one child are living at or below the federal poverty level” and “over half of working women do not earn adequate income to cover their basic necessities” (Brion 2009, 1). Moreover, conventional measures of poverty do not adequately capture women’s struggles to support themselves and their families, nor do they document the numbers of women seeking basic self-sufficiency. Even though there is lack of accurate data on women in the county, which is a critical problem, there is also a dearth of social science research on existing efforts to enhance women’s economic security in Miami-Dade County. My research contributes to closing the information gap by examining the characteristics and strategies of women-led community development organizations (CDOs) in MDC, working to address women’s economic insecurity. The research is informed by a framework developed by Marilyn Gittell, who pioneered an approach to study women-led CDOs in the United States. On the basis of research in nine U.S. cities, she concluded that women-led groups increased community participation and “by creating community networks and civic action, they represent a model for community development efforts” (Gittell, et al. 2000, 123). My study documents the strategies and networks of women-led CDOs in MDC that prioritize women’s economic security. Their strategies are especially important during these times of economic recession and government reductions in funding towards social services. The focus of the research is women-led CDOs that work to improve social services access, economic opportunity, civic participation and capacity, and women’s rights. Although many women-led CDOs prioritize building social infrastructures that promote change, inequalities in economic and political status for women without economic security remain a challenge (Young 2004). My research supports previous studies by Gittell, et al., finding that women-led CDOs in Miami-Dade County have key characteristics of a model of community development efforts that use networking and collaboration to strengthen their broad, integrated approach. The resulting community partnerships, coupled with participation by constituents in the development process, build a foundation to influence policy decisions for social change. In addition, my findings show that women-led CDOs in Miami-Dade County have a major focus on alleviating poverty and economic insecurity, particularly that of women. Finally, it was found that a majority of the five organizations network transnationally, using lessons learned to inform their work of expanding the agency of their constituents and placing the economic empowerment of women as central in the process of family and community development.