A methodology to estimate time varying user responses to travel time and travel time reliability in a road pricing environment

Road pricing has emerged as an effective means of managing road traffic demand while simultaneously raising additional revenues to transportation agencies. Research on the factors that govern travel decisions has shown that user preferences may be a function of the demographic characteristics of the individuals and the perceived trip attributes. However, it is not clear what are the actual trip attributes considered in the travel decision- making process, how these attributes are perceived by travelers, and how the set of trip attributes change as a function of the time of the day or from day to day. In this study, operational Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) archives are mined and the aggregated preferences for a priced system are extracted at a fine time aggregation level for an extended number of days. The resulting information is related to corresponding time-varying trip attributes such as travel time, travel time reliability, charged toll, and other parameters. The time-varying user preferences and trip attributes are linked together by means of a binary choice model (Logit) with a linear utility function on trip attributes. The trip attributes weights in the utility function are then dynamically estimated for each time of day by means of an adaptive, limited-memory discrete Kalman filter (ALMF). The relationship between traveler choices and travel time is assessed using different rules to capture the logic that best represents the traveler perception and the effect of the real-time information on the observed preferences. The impact of travel time reliability on traveler choices is investigated considering its multiple definitions. It can be concluded based on the results that using the ALMF algorithm allows a robust estimation of time-varying weights in the utility function at fine time aggregation levels. The high correlations among the trip attributes severely constrain the simultaneous estimation of their weights in the utility function. Despite the data limitations, it is found that, the ALMF algorithm can provide stable estimates of the choice parameters for some periods of the day. Finally, it is found that the daily variation of the user sensitivities for different periods of the day resembles a well-defined normal distribution.

Social support, risk, and adjustment of immigrant preadolescents

The current study was designed to explore the salience of social support, immigrant status, and risk in middle childhood and early adolescence across two time periods as indicated by measures of school adjustment and well-being. Participants included 691 children of public elementary schools in grades 4 and 6 who were interviewed in 1997 (Time 1) and reinterviewed two years later (Time 2); 539 were U.S.-born, and 152 were foreign-born. ^ Repeated measures multivariate analyses of variance (MANOVA's) were conducted to assess the effects of immigrant status and risk on total support, well-being, and school adjustment from Time 1 to Time 2. Follow-up analyses, including Student-Newman-Keuls post hoc tests, were used to test the significance of the differences among the means of support categories (low and high), immigrant status (U.S. born and non-U.S. born), risk (low and high) and time (time 1 and time 2). ^ Results showed that immigrant participants in the high risk group reported significantly lower levels of support than their peers. Further, children of low risk at Time 2 indicated the highest levels of support. Second, immigrant preadolescents, preadolescents who reported low levels of social support, and preadolescents of the high risk reported lower levels of emotional well-being. There was also an interaction of support by risk by time, indicating that children who are at risk and had low levels of social support reported more emotional problems at Time 1. Finally, preadolescents who are at risk and preadolescents who reported lower levels of support were more likely to show school adaptation problems. Findings from this study highlight the importance of a multivariable approach to the study of support, emotional adjustment, and academic adjustment of immigrant preadolescents. ^

The impact of *experience, industry characteristics, and individual differences on audit risk and the extent of testing decisions: An empirical investigation

The first part of the study examined the effect of industry risk changes on perceived audit risk at the financial statement level and whether these changes depended on individual differences such as experience and tolerance for ambiguity. ^ Forty-eight auditors from two offices of one of the “Big 5” CPA firms participated in this study. The ANOVA results supported the effect of industry risk in the assessment of audit risk at the financial statement level. Higher industry risk was associated with higher perceived audit risk. Tolerance for ambiguity was also significant in explaining the changes in the assessment of audit risk. Auditors with a high tolerance for ambiguity perceived lower audit risk than auditors with a low tolerance for ambiguity. Although ANOVA results did not find experience to be significant, a t-test for experience showed it to be marginally significant and inversely related to audit risk. ^ The second part of this study examined whether differences in perceived audit risk at the financial statement level altered the extent, nature or timing of the planned auditing procedures. The results of the MANOVA suggested an overall audit risk effect at the financial statement level. Perceived audit risk was significant in explaining the variation in the number of hours planned for the total cycle and the number of hours p1anned for the tests of balances and details. Perceived audit risk was not significant in determining the analytical review procedures planned, but assessed inherent risk at the cycle level was significant. The higher the inherent risk the more analytical procedures were planned. Perceived audit risk was not significant in explaining the timing of the procedures, but individual differences were significant. The results showed that experienced auditors and those with a high tolerance for ambiguity were less likely to postpone the performance of the interim procedures or the time at which the majority of audit work would be done. ^

Elementary music and classroom teachers' time -use: A comparison by grade level, time of day, and day of the week

This study investigated time-use of elementary music teachers and elementary classroom teachers to determine: (1) whether there was a relationship between grade level, time of day, and day of the week and teachers' time-use in teaching, monitoring, and non-curricular, and (2) whether ethnicity, training, and years of experience affect teacher time-use. Sixty-nine music teachers and 55 classroom teachers participated. ^ A MANOVA was used to examine the hypothesized relationship. ANOVA results were significant for time spent teaching, monitoring, and non-curricular. An independent t test revealed a significance difference (t (302) = 5.20, p < .001) between the two groups of teachers. A significant difference was found for teaching, t (302) = 5.20, p < .001: music teachers spent more time actively teaching than did classroom teachers. There was a significant difference for monitoring (t (302) = 13.62, p < .001): classroom teachers allocated more time to monitoring than did music teachers. A significant difference was also found for non-curricular (t (302) = 7.03, p < .001): music teachers spent more time in this category of activities than did classroom teachers. ^ Analyses of the activities subsumed under the major categories indicated significant differences between elementary music teachers and elementary classroom teachers, overall, in subject matter (p < .001), discussion (p < .05), school-wide activities (p < .001), seatwork (p < .001), giving directions (p < .001), changing activities (p < .001), lunch (p < .05), planning (p < .001) and interruption (p < .001). Analyses of the relationship and ethnicity, training, degree, experience indicated significant difference for main effect, ethnicity (F(2, 116) = 4.22, p < .017). Time-use for black non-Hispanic teachers was higher than time-use for those who were Hispanic and white non-Hispanic. ^ Analyses of time-use by grade showed no increase for either group as grade level increased. A statistically significant Wilks Lambda ( F (1,294) = .917 p < .013) was found for the independent variable day of the week. ANOVA indicated that elementary classroom teachers monitored more on Thursdays and Fridays: music teachers allocated more time to non-curricular activities on Fridays. ^

Risk and resilience factors associated with delinquent behavior among African -American adolescent males

Juvenile crime is a social problem of increasing concern to many citizens in the United States. In 2000, there were an estimated 2.4 million juvenile arrests for a variety of crimes ranging from misdemeanors to violent felony offenses. African American males are disproportionately represented among juvenile offenders in the United States. In 2000, black youth were approximately 16% of the U.S. population between the ages of 10–17; however, they accounted for 42% of juvenile arrests for violent crime. ^ This study explored putative factors associated with juvenile offending among a sample of African American adolescent males. The independent variables in this study were academic achievement, religiosity, parenting styles and discrimination. The dependent variables were delinquent behavior and arrest. The data used in this study were from a larger NIDA funded longitudinal study that included approximately 425 African American youths. The data collection method involved structured interviews and questionnaires. The participants for the original study were selected via random sampling from all students attending middle school in Miami-Dade County. The study examined the hypotheses that African American males retrospectively reporting (a) high academic achievement, (b) high religiosity, (c) authoritarian parenting and (d) low perceptions of discrimination are less likely to be involved in delinquent behavior and are also less likely to be arrested. ^ Results indicated that among African American adolescent males, delinquent behavior had a significant relationship (p < .05) with academic achievement, perceived discrimination and the interaction between perceived discrimination and experienced discrimination. Arrest was significantly related to academic achievement (p < .001), religious perception (p < .05), and church attendance (p < 05). Neither dependent variable was significantly related to parenting styles. ^ The findings indicated that experimental studies are needed to clarify cause and effect relationship among the variables associated with juvenile offending among African American males, which may differ from those associated with juvenile offending among other groups. ^

Elementary music and classroom teachers' time-use: a comparison by grade level, time of day, and day of the week

This study investigated time-use of elementary music teachers and elementary classroom teachers to determine: (1) whether there was a relationship between grade level, time of day, and day of the week and teachers' time-use in teaching, monitoring, and non-curricular, and (2) whether ethnicity, training, and years of experience affect teacher time-use. Sixty-nine music teachers and 55 classroom teachers participated. A MANOVA was used to examine the hypothesized relationship. ANOVA results were significant for time spent teaching, monitoring, and non-curricular. An independent t test revealed a significance difference (t (302) = 5.20, p Analyses of the activities subsumed under the major categories indicated significant differences between elementary music teachers and elementary classroom teachers, overall, in subject matter ( p teachers was higher than time-use for those who were Hispanic and white non-Hispanic. Analyses of time-use by grade showed no increase for either group as grade level increased. A statistically significant Wilks Lambda ( F (1,294) = .917 p < .013 ) was found for the independent variable day of the week. ANOVA indicated that elementary classroom teachers monitored more on Thursdays and Fridays: music teachers allocated more time to non-curricular activities on Fridays.

Risk and resilience factors associated with delinquent behavior among African American adolescent males

Juvenile crime is a social problem of increasing concern to many citizens in the United States. In 2000, there were an estimated 2.4 million juvenile arrests for a variety of crimes ranging from misdemeanors to violent felony offenses. African American males are disproportionately represented among juvenile offenders in the United States. In 2000, black youth were approximately 16% of the U.S. population between the ages of 10-17; however, they accounted for 42% of juvenile arrests for violent crime. This study explored putative factors associated with juvenile offending among a sample of African American adolescent males. The independent variables in this study were academic achievement, religiosity, parenting styles and discrimination. The dependent variables were delinquent behavior and arrest. The data used in this study were from a larger NIDA funded longitudinal study that included approximately 425 African American youths. The data collection method involved structured interviews and questionnaires. The participants for the original study were selected via random sampling from all students attending middle school in Miami-Dade County. The study examined the hypotheses that African American males retrospectively reporting (a) high academic achievement, (b) high religiosity, (c) authoritarian parenting and (d) low perceptions of discrimination are less likely to be involved in delinquent behavior and are also less likely to be arrested. Results indicated that among African American adolescent males, delinquent behavior had a significant relationship (p The findings indicated that experimental studies are needed to clarify cause and effect relationship among the variables associated with juvenile offending among African American males, which may differ from those associated with juvenile offending among other groups.

A study of stock market linkages between the US and frontier countries

My dissertation investigates the financial linkages and transmission of economic shocks between the US and the smallest emerging markets (frontier markets). The first chapter sets up an empirical model that examines the impact of US market returns and conditional volatility on the returns and conditional volatilities of twenty-one frontier markets. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood; utilizes the GARCH model of errors, and is applied to daily country data from the MSCI Barra. We find limited, but statistically significant exposure of Frontier markets to shocks from the US. Our results suggest that it is not the lagged US market returns that have impact; rather it is the expected US market returns that influence frontier market returns The second chapter sets up an empirical time-varying parameter (TVP) model to explore the time-variation in the impact of mean US returns on mean Frontier market returns. The model utilizes the Kalman filter algorithm as well as the GARCH model of errors and is applied to daily country data from the MSCI Barra. The TVP model detects statistically significant time-variation in the impact of US returns and low, but statistically and quantitatively important impact of US market conditional volatility. The third chapter studies the risk-return relationship in twenty Frontier country stock markets by setting up an international version of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model. The systematic risk in this model comes from covariance of Frontier market stock index returns with world returns. Both the systematic risk and risk premium are time-varying in our model. We also incorporate own country variances as additional determinants of Frontier country returns. Our results suggest statistically significant impact of both world and own country risk in explaining Frontier country returns. Time-variation in the world risk premium is also found to be statistically significant for most Frontier market returns. However, own country risk is found to be quantitatively more important.