A diagnostic framework for demand amplification problems in supply chains

This dissertation delivers a framework to diagnose the Bull-Whip Effect (BWE) in supply chains and then identify methods to minimize it. Such a framework is needed because in spite of the significant amount of literature discussing the bull-whip effect, many companies continue to experience the wide variations in demand that are indicative of the bull-whip effect. While the theory and knowledge of the bull-whip effect is well established, there still is the lack of an engineering framework and method to systematically identify the problem, diagnose its causes, and identify remedies. ^ The present work seeks to fill this gap by providing a holistic, systems perspective to bull-whip identification and diagnosis. The framework employs the SCOR reference model to examine the supply chain processes with a baseline measure of demand amplification. Then, research of the supply chain structural and behavioral features is conducted by means of the system dynamics modeling method. ^ The contribution of the diagnostic framework, is called Demand Amplification Protocol (DAMP), relies not only on the improvement of existent methods but also contributes with original developments introduced to accomplish successful diagnosis. DAMP contributes a comprehensive methodology that captures the dynamic complexities of supply chain processes. The method also contributes a BWE measurement method that is suitable for actual supply chains because of its low data requirements, and introduces a BWE scorecard for relating established causes to a central BWE metric. In addition, the dissertation makes a methodological contribution to the analysis of system dynamic models with a technique for statistical screening called SS-Opt, which determines the inputs with the greatest impact on the bull-whip effect by means of perturbation analysis and subsequent multivariate optimization. The dissertation describes the implementation of the DAMP framework in an actual case study that exposes the approach, analysis, results and conclusions. The case study suggests a balanced solution between costs and demand amplification can better serve both firms and supply chain interests. Insights pinpoint to supplier network redesign, postponement in manufacturing operations and collaborative forecasting agreements with main distributors.^

The application of reduced-size short tandem repeat primer sets in the analysis of human DNA from degraded and compromised samples

The purpose of this research was to demonstrate the applicability of reduced-size STR (Miniplex) primer sets to challenging samples and to provide the forensic community with new information regarding the analysis of degraded and inhibited DNA. The Miniplex primer sets were validated in accordance with guidelines set forth by the Scientific Working Group on DNA Analysis Methods (SWGDAM) in order to demonstrate the scientific validity of the kits. The Miniplex sets were also used in the analysis of DNA extracted from human skeletal remains and telogen hair. In addition, a method for evaluating the mechanism of PCR inhibition was developed using qPCR. The Miniplexes were demonstrated to be a robust and sensitive tool for the analysis of DNA with as low as 100 pg of template DNA. They also proved to be better than commercial kits in the analysis of DNA from human skeletal remains, with 64% of samples tested producing full profiles, compared to 16% for a commercial kit. The Miniplexes also produced amplification of nuclear DNA from human telogen hairs, with partial profiles obtained from as low as 60 pg of template DNA. These data suggest smaller PCR amplicons may provide a useful alternative to mitochondrial DNA for forensic analysis of degraded DNA from human skeletal remains, telogen hairs, and other challenging samples. In the evaluation of inhibition by qPCR, the effect of amplicon length and primer melting temperature was evaluated in order to determine the binding mechanisms of different PCR inhibitors. Several mechanisms were indicated by the inhibitors tested, including binding of the polymerase, binding to the DNA, and effects on the processivity of the polymerase during primer extension. The data obtained from qPCR illustrated a method by which the type of inhibitor could be inferred in forensic samples, and some methods of reducing inhibition for specific inhibitors were demonstrated. An understanding of the mechanism of the inhibitors found in forensic samples will allow analysts to select the proper methods for inhibition removal or the type of analysis that can be performed, and will increase the information that can be obtained from inhibited samples.