5 resultados para spatiotemporal epidemic prediction model

em Digital Commons at Florida International University


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The durability of a polymer trileaflet valve is dependent on leaflet stress concentrations, so valve designs that reduce stress can, hypothetically, increase durability. Design aspects that are believed to contribute to reduced leaflet stress include stent flexibility, parabolic coaptation curvature, and leaflet anisotropy. With this in mind, the purpose of this investigation was to elucidate what specific combinations of these parameters promote optimal acute and long-term valve function. A combination of four stent designs, seven leaflet reinforcement materials, and three coaptation geometries were evaluated through a combination of experimentation and modeling. Static tensile and Poisson’s ratio tests and dynamic tensile fatigue testing were used to evaluate the individual leaflet components; and hydrodynamic testing and accelerated valve fatigue was used to assess complete valve prototypes. The two most successful designs included a 0.40 mm thick knit-reinforced valve with a fatigue life of 10.35 years, and a 0.20 mm thick knit-reinforced valve with a 28.9 mmHg decrease in pressure drop over the former. A finite element model was incorporated to verify the impact of the above-mentioned parameters on leaflet stress concentrations. Leaflet anisotropy had a large impact on stress concentrations, and matching the circumferential modulus to that of the natural valve showed the greatest benefit. Varying the radial modulus had minimal impact. Varying coaptation geometry had no impact, but stent flexibility did have a marked effect on the stress at the top of the commissure, where a completely rigid stent resulted in a higher peak stress than a flexible stent (E = 385 MPa). In conclusion, stent flexibility and leaflet anisotropy do effect stress concentrations in the SIBS trileaflet valve, but coaptation geometry does not. Regions of high stress concentrations were linked to failure locations in vitro, so a fatigue prediction model was developed from the S/N curves generated during dynamic tensile testing of the 0.20 mm knit-reinforced leaflets. Failure was predicted at approximately 400 million cycles (10 years) at the top of the commissure. In vitro fatigue of this valve showed failure initiation after approximately 167 million cycles (4.18 years), but it was related to a design defect that is subsequently being changed.

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Distance learning is growing and transforming educational institutions. The increasing use of distance learning by higher education institutions and particularly community colleges coupled with the higher level of student attrition in online courses than in traditional classrooms suggests that increased attention should be paid to factors that affect online student course completion. The purpose of the study was to develop and validate an instrument to predict community college online student course completion based on faculty perceptions, yielding a prediction model of online course completion rates. Social Presence and Media Richness theories were used to develop a theoretically-driven measure of online course completion. This research study involved surveying 311 community college faculty who taught at least one online course in the past 2 years. Email addresses of participating faculty were provided by two south Florida community colleges. Each participant was contacted through email, and a link to an Internet survey was given. The survey response rate was 63% (192 out of 303 available questionnaires). Data were analyzed through factor analysis, alpha reliability, and multiple regression. The exploratory factor analysis using principal component analysis with varimax rotation yielded a four-factor solution that accounted for 48.8% of the variance. Consistent with Social Presence theory, the factors with their percent of variance in parentheses were: immediacy (21.2%), technological immediacy (11.0%), online communication and interactivity (10.3%), and intimacy (6.3%). Internal consistency of the four factors was calculated using Cronbach's alpha (1951) with reliability coefficients ranging between .680 and .828. Multiple regression analysis yielded a model that significantly predicted 11% of the variance of the dependent variable, the percentage of student who completed the online course. As indicated in the literature (Johnson & Keil, 2002; Newberry, 2002), Media Richness theory appears to be closely related to Social Presence theory. However, elements from this theory did not emerge in the factor analysis.

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This study examined the predictive merits of selected cognitive and noncognitive variables on the national Registry exam pass rate using 2008 graduates (n = 175) from community college radiography programs in Florida. The independent variables included two GPAs, final grades in five radiography courses, self-efficacy, and social support. The dependent variable was the first-attempt results on the national Registry exam. The design was a retrospective predictive study that relied on academic data collected from participants using the self-report method and on perceptions of students' success on the national Registry exam collected through a questionnaire developed and piloted in the study. All independent variables except self-efficacy and social support correlated with success on the national Registry exam ( p < .01) using the Pearson Product-Moment Correlation analysis. The strongest predictor of the national Registry exam success was the end-of-program GPA, r = .550, p < .001. The GPAs and scores for self-efficacy and social support were entered into a logistic regression analysis to produce a prediction model. The end-of-program GPA (p = .015) emerged as a significant variable. This model predicted 44% of the students who failed the national Registry exam and 97.3% of those who passed, explaining 45.8% of the variance. A second model included the final grades for the radiography courses, self efficacy, and social support. Three courses significantly predicted national Registry exam success; Radiographic Exposures, p < .001; Radiologic Physics, p = .014; and Radiation Safety & Protection, p = .044, explaining 56.8% of the variance. This model predicted 64% of the students who failed the national Registry exam and 96% of those who passed. The findings support the use of in-program data as accurate predictors of success on the national Registry exam.

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An iterative travel time forecasting scheme, named the Advanced Multilane Prediction based Real-time Fastest Path (AMPRFP) algorithm, is presented in this dissertation. This scheme is derived from the conventional kernel estimator based prediction model by the association of real-time nonlinear impacts that caused by neighboring arcs’ traffic patterns with the historical traffic behaviors. The AMPRFP algorithm is evaluated by prediction of the travel time of congested arcs in the urban area of Jacksonville City. Experiment results illustrate that the proposed scheme is able to significantly reduce both the relative mean error (RME) and the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of the predicted travel time. To obtain high quality real-time traffic information, which is essential to the performance of the AMPRFP algorithm, a data clean scheme enhanced empirical learning (DCSEEL) algorithm is also introduced. This novel method investigates the correlation between distance and direction in the geometrical map, which is not considered in existing fingerprint localization methods. Specifically, empirical learning methods are applied to minimize the error that exists in the estimated distance. A direction filter is developed to clean joints that have negative influence to the localization accuracy. Synthetic experiments in urban, suburban and rural environments are designed to evaluate the performance of DCSEEL algorithm in determining the cellular probe’s position. The results show that the cellular probe’s localization accuracy can be notably improved by the DCSEEL algorithm. Additionally, a new fast correlation technique for overcoming the time efficiency problem of the existing correlation algorithm based floating car data (FCD) technique is developed. The matching process is transformed into a 1-dimensional (1-D) curve matching problem and the Fast Normalized Cross-Correlation (FNCC) algorithm is introduced to supersede the Pearson product Moment Correlation Co-efficient (PMCC) algorithm in order to achieve the real-time requirement of the FCD method. The fast correlation technique shows a significant improvement in reducing the computational cost without affecting the accuracy of the matching process.

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The durability of a polymer trileaflet valve is dependent on leaflet stress concentrations, so valve designs that reduce stress can, hypothetically, increase durability. Design aspects that are believed to contribute to reduced leaflet stress include stent flexibility, parabolic coaptation curvature, and leaflet anisotropy. With this in mind, the purpose of this investigation was to elucidate what specific combinations of these parameters promote optimal acute and long-term valve function. A combination of four stent designs, seven leaflet reinforcement materials, and three coaptation geometries were evaluated through a combination of experimentation and modeling. Static tensile and Poisson’s ratio tests and dynamic tensile fatigue testing were used to evaluate the individual leaflet components; and hydrodynamic testing and accelerated valve fatigue was used to assess complete valve prototypes. The two most successful designs included a 0.40 mm thick knit-reinforced valve with a fatigue life of 10.35 years, and a 0.20 mm thick knit-reinforced valve with a 28.9 mmHg decrease in pressure drop over the former. A finite element model was incorporated to verify the impact of the above-mentioned parameters on leaflet stress concentrations. Leaflet anisotropy had a large impact on stress concentrations, and matching the circumferential modulus to that of the natural valve showed the greatest benefit. Varying the radial modulus had minimal impact. Varying coaptation geometry had no impact, but stent flexibility did have a marked effect on the stress at the top of the commissure, where a completely rigid stent resulted in a higher peak stress than a flexible stent (E = 385 MPa). In conclusion, stent flexibility and leaflet anisotropy do effect stress concentrations in the SIBS trileaflet valve, but coaptation geometry does not. Regions of high stress concentrations were linked to failure locations in vitro, so a fatigue prediction model was developed from the S/N curves generated during dynamic tensile testing of the 0.20 mm knit-reinforced leaflets. Failure was predicted at approximately 400 million cycles (10 years) at the top of the commissure. In vitro fatigue of this valve showed failure initiation after approximately 167 million cycles (4.18 years), but it was related to a design defect that is subsequently being changed.