Nonlinear dynamics and chaos simulation system analysis for improved design

Small errors proved catastrophic. Our purpose to remark that a very small cause which escapes our notice determined a considerable effect that we cannot fail to see, and then we say that the effect is due to chance. Small differences in the initial conditions produce very great ones in the final phenomena. A small error in the former will produce an enormous error in the latter. When dealing with any kind of electrical device specification, it is important to note that there exists a pair of test conditions that define a test: the forcing function and the limit. Forcing functions define the external operating constraints placed upon the device tested. The actual test defines how well the device responds to these constraints. Forcing inputs to threshold for example, represents the most difficult testing because this put those inputs as close as possible to the actual switching critical points and guarantees that the device will meet the Input-Output specifications. ^ Prediction becomes impossible by classical analytical analysis bounded by Newton and Euclides. We have found that non linear dynamics characteristics is the natural state of being in all circuits and devices. Opportunities exist for effective error detection in a nonlinear dynamics and chaos environment. ^ Nowadays there are a set of linear limits established around every aspect of a digital or analog circuits out of which devices are consider bad after failing the test. Deterministic chaos circuit is a fact not a possibility as it has been revived by our Ph.D. research. In practice for linear standard informational methodologies, this chaotic data product is usually undesirable and we are educated to be interested in obtaining a more regular stream of output data. ^ This Ph.D. research explored the possibilities of taking the foundation of a very well known simulation and modeling methodology, introducing nonlinear dynamics and chaos precepts, to produce a new error detector instrument able to put together streams of data scattered in space and time. Therefore, mastering deterministic chaos and changing the bad reputation of chaotic data as a potential risk for practical system status determination. ^

Perceptions of French and Creole Among First-Generation Adult Haitian English Language Learners

Context: Due to a unique combination of factors, outdoor athletes in the Southeastern United States are at high risk of lightning deaths and injuries. Lightning detection methods are available to minimize lightning strike victims. Objective: Becoming aware of the risk factors that predispose athletes to lightning strikes and determining the most reliable detection method against hazardous weather will enable Certified Athletic Trainers to develop protocols that protect athletes from injury. Data Sources: A comprehensive literature review of Medline and Pubmed using key words: lightning, lightning risk factors, lightning safety, lightning detection, and athletic trainers and lightning was completed. Data Synthesis: Factors predisposing athletes to lighting death or injury include: time of year, time of day, the athlete’s age, geographical location, physical location, sex, perspiration level, and lack of education and preparedness by athletes and staff. Although handheld lightning detectors have become widely accessible to detect lightning strikes, their performance has not been independently or objectively confirmed. There is evidence that these detectors inaccurately detect strike locations by recording false strikes and not recording actual strikes. Conclusions: Lightning education and preparation are two factors that can be controlled. Measures need to be taken by Certified Athletic Trainers to ensure the safety of athletes during outdoor athletics. It is critical for athletic trainers and supervising staff members to become fully aware of the risks of lightning strikes in order to most effectively protect everyone under their supervision. Even though lightning detectors have been manufactured in an attempt to minimize death and injuries due to lightning strikes, none of the detectors have been proven to be 100% effective. Educating coaches, athletes, and parents on the risks of lightning and the detection methods available, while implementing an emergency action plan for lightning safety, is crucial to ensure the well being of the student-athlete population.

Improving the scientific reliability of biological detection of explosives by Canis familiaris: Active odour signatures and their implications

The use of canines as a method of detection of explosives is well established worldwide and those applying this technology range from police forces and law enforcement to humanitarian agencies in the developing world. Despite the recent surge in publication of novel instrumental sensors for explosives detection, canines are still regarded by many to be the most effective real-time field method of explosives detection. However, unlike instrumental methods, currently it is difficult to determine detection levels, perform calibration of the canines' ability or produce scientifically valid quality control checks. Accordingly, amongst increasingly strict requirements regarding forensic evidence admission such as Frye and Daubert, there is a need for better scientific understanding of the process of canine detection. ^ When translated to the field of canine detection, just like any instrumental technique, peer reviewed publication of the reliability, success and error rates, is required for admissibility. Commonly training is focussed towards high explosives such as TNT and Composition 4, and the low explosives such as Black and Smokeless Powders are added often only for completeness. ^ Headspace analyses of explosive samples, performed by Solid Phase Microextraction (SPME) paired with Gas Chromatography - Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS), and Gas Chromatography - Electron Capture Detection (GC-ECD) was conducted, highlighting common odour chemicals. The odour chemicals detected were then presented to previously trained and certified explosives detection canines, and the activity/inactivity of the odour determined through field trials and experiments. ^ It was demonstrated that TNT and cast explosives share a common odour signature, and the same may be said for plasticized explosives such as Composition C-4 and Deta Sheet. Conversely, smokeless powders were demonstrated not to share common odours. An evaluation of the effectiveness of commercially available pseudo aids reported limited success. The implications of the explosive odour studies upon canine training then led to the development of novel inert training aids based upon the active odours determined. ^

Development of safety performance functions for SafetyAnalyst applications in Florida

In 2010, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) released a safety analysis software system known as SafetyAnalyst. SafetyAnalyst implements the empirical Bayes (EB) method, which requires the use of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). The system is equipped with a set of national default SPFs, and the software calibrates the default SPFs to represent the agency's safety performance. However, it is recommended that agencies generate agency-specific SPFs whenever possible. Many investigators support the view that the agency-specific SPFs represent the agency data better than the national default SPFs calibrated to agency data. Furthermore, it is believed that the crash trends in Florida are different from the states whose data were used to develop the national default SPFs. In this dissertation, Florida-specific SPFs were developed using the 2008 Roadway Characteristics Inventory (RCI) data and crash and traffic data from 2007-2010 for both total and fatal and injury (FI) crashes. The data were randomly divided into two sets, one for calibration (70% of the data) and another for validation (30% of the data). The negative binomial (NB) model was used to develop the Florida-specific SPFs for each of the subtypes of roadway segments, intersections and ramps, using the calibration data. Statistical goodness-of-fit tests were performed on the calibrated models, which were then validated using the validation data set. The results were compared in order to assess the transferability of the Florida-specific SPF models. The default SafetyAnalyst SPFs were calibrated to Florida data by adjusting the national default SPFs with local calibration factors. The performance of the Florida-specific SPFs and SafetyAnalyst default SPFs calibrated to Florida data were then compared using a number of methods, including visual plots and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The plots of SPFs against the observed crash data were used to compare the prediction performance of the two models. Three goodness-of-fit tests, represented by the mean absolute deviance (MAD), the mean square prediction error (MSPE), and Freeman-Tukey R2 (R2FT), were also used for comparison in order to identify the better-fitting model. The results showed that Florida-specific SPFs yielded better prediction performance than the national default SPFs calibrated to Florida data. The performance of Florida-specific SPFs was further compared with that of the full SPFs, which include both traffic and geometric variables, in two major applications of SPFs, i.e., crash prediction and identification of high crash locations. The results showed that both SPF models yielded very similar performance in both applications. These empirical results support the use of the flow-only SPF models adopted in SafetyAnalyst, which require much less effort to develop compared to full SPFs.

Development of Safety Performance Functions for SafetyAnalyst Applications in Florida

In 2010, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) released a safety analysis software system known as SafetyAnalyst. SafetyAnalyst implements the empirical Bayes (EB) method, which requires the use of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). The system is equipped with a set of national default SPFs, and the software calibrates the default SPFs to represent the agency’s safety performance. However, it is recommended that agencies generate agency-specific SPFs whenever possible. Many investigators support the view that the agency-specific SPFs represent the agency data better than the national default SPFs calibrated to agency data. Furthermore, it is believed that the crash trends in Florida are different from the states whose data were used to develop the national default SPFs. In this dissertation, Florida-specific SPFs were developed using the 2008 Roadway Characteristics Inventory (RCI) data and crash and traffic data from 2007-2010 for both total and fatal and injury (FI) crashes. The data were randomly divided into two sets, one for calibration (70% of the data) and another for validation (30% of the data). The negative binomial (NB) model was used to develop the Florida-specific SPFs for each of the subtypes of roadway segments, intersections and ramps, using the calibration data. Statistical goodness-of-fit tests were performed on the calibrated models, which were then validated using the validation data set. The results were compared in order to assess the transferability of the Florida-specific SPF models. The default SafetyAnalyst SPFs were calibrated to Florida data by adjusting the national default SPFs with local calibration factors. The performance of the Florida-specific SPFs and SafetyAnalyst default SPFs calibrated to Florida data were then compared using a number of methods, including visual plots and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The plots of SPFs against the observed crash data were used to compare the prediction performance of the two models. Three goodness-of-fit tests, represented by the mean absolute deviance (MAD), the mean square prediction error (MSPE), and Freeman-Tukey R2 (R2FT), were also used for comparison in order to identify the better-fitting model. The results showed that Florida-specific SPFs yielded better prediction performance than the national default SPFs calibrated to Florida data. The performance of Florida-specific SPFs was further compared with that of the full SPFs, which include both traffic and geometric variables, in two major applications of SPFs, i.e., crash prediction and identification of high crash locations. The results showed that both SPF models yielded very similar performance in both applications. These empirical results support the use of the flow-only SPF models adopted in SafetyAnalyst, which require much less effort to develop compared to full SPFs.