Flood risk analysis of the White Oak Creek watershed in Oak Ridge, Tennessee using MIKE SHE and MIKE 11 software

The purpose of this study was to determine the flooding potential of contaminated areas within the White Oak Creek watershed in the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee. The watershed was analyzed with an integrated surface and subsurface numerical model based on MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 software. The model was calibrated and validated using five decades of historical data. A series of simulations were conducted to determine the watershed response to 25 year, 100 year and 500 year precipitation forecasts; flooding maps were generated for those events. Predicted flood events were compared to Log Pearson III flood flow frequency values for validation. This investigation also provides an improved understanding of the water fluxes between the surface and subsurface subdomains as they affect flood frequencies. In sum, this study presents crucial information to further assess the environmental risks of potential mobilization of contaminants of concern during extreme precipitation events.

Risk based post closure care analysis for Florida landfills

Subtitle D of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) requires a post closure period of 30 years for non hazardous wastes in landfills. Post closure care (PCC) activities under Subtitle D include leachate collection and treatment, groundwater monitoring, inspection and maintenance of the final cover, and monitoring to ensure that landfill gas does not migrate off site or into on site buildings. The decision to reduce PCC duration requires exploration of a performance based methodology to Florida landfills. PCC should be based on whether the landfill is a threat to human health or the environment. Historically no risk based procedure has been available to establish an early end to PCC. Landfill stability depends on a number of factors that include variables that relate to operations both before and after the closure of a landfill cell. Therefore, PCC decisions should be based on location specific factors, operational factors, design factors, post closure performance, end use, and risk analysis. The question of appropriate PCC period for Florida’s landfills requires in depth case studies focusing on the analysis of the performance data from closed landfills in Florida. Based on data availability, Davie Landfill was identified as case study site for a case by case analysis of landfill stability. The performance based PCC decision system developed by Geosyntec Consultants was used for the assessment of site conditions to project PCC needs. The available data for leachate and gas quantity and quality, ground water quality, and cap conditions were evaluated. The quality and quantity data for leachate and gas were analyzed to project the levels of pollutants in leachate and groundwater in reference to maximum contaminant level (MCL). In addition, the projected amount of gas quantity was estimated. A set of contaminants (including metals and organics) were identified as contaminants detected in groundwater for health risk assessment. These contaminants were selected based on their detection frequency and levels in leachate and ground water; and their historical and projected trends. During the evaluations a range of discrepancies and problems that related to the collection and documentation were encountered and possible solutions made. Based on the results of PCC performance integrated with risk assessment, projection of future PCC monitoring needs and sustainable waste management options were identified. According to these results, landfill gas monitoring can be terminated, leachate and groundwater monitoring for parameters above MCL and surveying of the cap integrity should be continued. The parameters which cause longer monitoring periods can be eliminated for the future sustainable landfills. As a conclusion, 30 year PCC period can be reduced for some of the landfill components based on their potential impacts to human health and environment (HH&E).

Risk Based Post Closure Care Analysis for Florida Landfills

Subtitle D of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) requires a post closure period of 30 years for non hazardous wastes in landfills. Post closure care (PCC) activities under Subtitle D include leachate collection and treatment, groundwater monitoring, inspection and maintenance of the final cover, and monitoring to ensure that landfill gas does not migrate off site or into on site buildings. The decision to reduce PCC duration requires exploration of a performance based methodology to Florida landfills. PCC should be based on whether the landfill is a threat to human health or the environment. Historically no risk based procedure has been available to establish an early end to PCC. Landfill stability depends on a number of factors that include variables that relate to operations both before and after the closure of a landfill cell. Therefore, PCC decisions should be based on location specific factors, operational factors, design factors, post closure performance, end use, and risk analysis. The question of appropriate PCC period for Florida’s landfills requires in depth case studies focusing on the analysis of the performance data from closed landfills in Florida. Based on data availability, Davie Landfill was identified as case study site for a case by case analysis of landfill stability. The performance based PCC decision system developed by Geosyntec Consultants was used for the assessment of site conditions to project PCC needs. The available data for leachate and gas quantity and quality, ground water quality, and cap conditions were evaluated. The quality and quantity data for leachate and gas were analyzed to project the levels of pollutants in leachate and groundwater in reference to maximum contaminant level (MCL). In addition, the projected amount of gas quantity was estimated. A set of contaminants (including metals and organics) were identified as contaminants detected in groundwater for health risk assessment. These contaminants were selected based on their detection frequency and levels in leachate and ground water; and their historical and projected trends. During the evaluations a range of discrepancies and problems that related to the collection and documentation were encountered and possible solutions made. Based on the results of PCC performance integrated with risk assessment, projection of future PCC monitoring needs and sustainable waste management options were identified. According to these results, landfill gas monitoring can be terminated, leachate and groundwater monitoring for parameters above MCL and surveying of the cap integrity should be continued. The parameters which cause longer monitoring periods can be eliminated for the future sustainable landfills. As a conclusion, 30 year PCC period can be reduced for some of the landfill components based on their potential impacts to human health and environment (HH&E).

Evaluating the Appropriateness of Project Delivery Systems for Different Trenchless Methods

Trenchless methods have been considered to be a viable solution for pipeline projects in urban areas. Their applicability in pipeline projects is expected to increase with the rapid advancements in technology and emerging concerns regarding social costs related to trenching methods. Selecting appropriate project delivery system (PDS) is a key to the success of trenchless projects. To ensure success of the project, the selected project delivery should be tailored to trenchless project specific characteristics and owner needs, since the effectiveness of project delivery systems differs based on different project characteristics and owners requirements. Since different trenchless methods have specific characteristics such rate of installation, lengths of installation, and accuracy, the same project delivery systems may not be equally effective for different methods. The intent of this paper is to evaluate the appropriateness of different PDS for different trenchless methods. PDS are examined through a structured decision-making process called Fuzzy Delivery System Selection Model (FDSSM). The process of incorporating the impacts of: (a) the characteristics of trenchless projects and (b) owners’ needs in the FDSSM is performed by collecting data using questionnaires deployed to professionals involved in the trenchless industry in order to determine the importance of delivery systems selection attributes for different trenchless methods, and then analyzing this data. The sensitivity of PDS rankings with respect to trenchless methods is considered in order to evaluate whether similar project delivery systems are equally effective in different trenchless methods. The effectiveness of PDS with respect to attributes is defined as follows: a project delivery system is most effective with respect to an attribute (e.g., ability to control growth in costs ) if there is no project delivery system that is more effective than that PDS. The results of this study may assist trenchless project owners to select the appropriate PDS for the trenchless method selected.

Public perception of carbon capture and storage in relation to hydraulic fracturing: content analyses, survey results, and policy proposals

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can contribute significantly to addressing the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions problem. Despite widespread political support, CCS remains unknown to the general public. Public perception researchers have found that, when asked, the public is relatively unfamiliar with CCS yet many individuals voice specific safety concerns regarding the technology. We believe this leads many stakeholders conflate CCS with the better-known and more visible technology hydraulic fracturing (fracking). We support this with content analysis of media coverage, web analytics, and public lobbying records. Furthermore, we present results from a survey of United States residents. This first-of-its-kind survey assessed participants’ knowledge, opinions and support of CCS and fracking technologies. The survey showed that participants had more knowledge of fracking than CCS, and that knowledge of fracking made participants less willing to support CCS projects. Additionally, it showed that participants viewed the two technologies as having similar risks and similar risk intensities. In the CCS stakeholder literature, judgment and decision-making (JDM) frameworks are noticeably absent, and public perception is not discussed using any cognitive biases as a way of understanding or explaining irrational decisions, yet these survey results show evidence of both anchoring bias and the ambiguity effect. Public acceptance of CCS is essential for a national low-carbon future plan. In conclusion, we propose changes in communications and incentives as programs to increase support of CCS.

An Assessment of the Performances of Several Univariate Tests of Normality

The importance of checking the normality assumption in most statistical procedures especially parametric tests cannot be over emphasized as the validity of the inferences drawn from such procedures usually depend on the validity of this assumption. Numerous methods have been proposed by different authors over the years, some popular and frequently used, others, not so much. This study addresses the performance of eighteen of the available tests for different sample sizes, significance levels, and for a number of symmetric and asymmetric distributions by conducting a Monte-Carlo simulation. The results showed that considerable power is not achieved for symmetric distributions when sample size is less than one hundred and for such distributions, the kurtosis test is most powerful provided the distribution is leptokurtic or platykurtic. The Shapiro-Wilk test remains the most powerful test for asymmetric distributions. We conclude that different tests are suitable under different characteristics of alternative distributions.

A Multi-Criteria GIS-Based Route Selection Tool for Hazardous Material Transport: Consideration of Environmental Consequence, Traffic Congestions and Costs

Hazardous materials are substances that, if not regulated, can pose a threat to human populations and their environmental health, safety or property when transported in commerce. About 1.5 million tons of hazardous material shipments are transported by truck in the US annually, with a steady increase of approximately 5% per year. The objective of this study was to develop a routing tool for hazardous material transport in order to facilitate reduced environmental impacts and less transportation difficulties, yet would also find paths that were still compelling for the shipping carriers as a matter of trucking cost. The study started with identification of inhalation hazard impact zones and explosion protective areas around the location of hypothetical hazardous material releases, considering different parameters (i.e., chemicals characteristics, release quantities, atmospheric condition, etc.). Results showed that depending on the quantity of release, chemical, and atmospheric stability (a function of wind speed, meteorology, sky cover, time and location of accidents, etc.) the consequence of these incidents can differ. The study was extended by selection of other evaluation criteria for further investigation because health risk as an evaluation criterion would not be the only concern in selection of routes. Transportation difficulties (i.e., road blockage and congestion) were incorporated as important factor due to their indirect impact/cost on the users of transportation networks. Trucking costs were also considered as one of the primary criteria in selection of hazardous material paths; otherwise the suggested routes would have not been convincing for the shipping companies. The last but not least criterion was proximity of public places to the routes. The approach evolved from a simple framework to a complicated and efficient GIS-based tool able to investigate transportation networks of any given study area, and capable of generating best routing options for cargos. The suggested tool uses a multi-criteria-decision-making method, which considers the priorities of the decision makers in choosing the cargo routes. Comparison of the routing options based on each criterion and also the overall suitableness of the path in regards to all the criteria (using a multi-criteria-decision-making method) showed that using similar tools as the one proposed by this study can provide decision makers insights in the area of hazardous material transport. This tool shows the probable consequences of considering each path in a very easily understandable way; in the formats of maps and tables, which makes the tradeoffs of costs and risks considerably simpler, as in some cases slightly compromising on trucking cost may drastically decrease the probable health risk and/or traffic difficulties. This will not only be rewarding to the community by making cities safer places to live, but also can be beneficial to shipping companies by allowing them to advertise as environmental friendly conveyors.

An Analysis of the Potential Risk Exposure to Lead (Pb) through Urban Community Gardens

Community gardening in cities is increasing, driven by social interaction and food security. City soils are sinks for heavy metals; including neurotoxic lead (Pb). Exposure routes are primarily through inhalation/ingestion of soil, or second by ingestion of plants that have accumulated Pb. This research evaluates soil at three Liberty City, Florida sites estimating risk of Pb exposure through primary and secondary pathways. Soil cores were collected from Liberty City, and red Malabar spinach (Basella rubra) was grown in Pb soil treatments in a greenhouse. Total soil Pb levels and plant tissues were measured after acid digestion, by ICP-OES. In Liberty City, two sites had hotspots with areas of elevated soil Pb levels. Plants grown on Pb contaminated soil all accumulated statistically significant Pb concentrations. Therefore, there is a potential risk of Pb exposure to residents in Liberty City by exposure in hotspot sites through both the primary and secondary pathways.

The development and analysis of a field project model curriculum and its impact on achievement and attitude toward science and the environment with at-risk eleventh and twelfth grade students

This study was an evaluation of a Field Project Model Curriculum and its impact on achievement, attitude toward science, attitude toward the environment, self-concept, and academic self-concept with at-risk eleventh and twelfth grade students. One hundred eight students were pretested and posttested on the Piers-Harris Children's Self-Concept Scale, PHCSC (1985); the Self-Concept as a Learner Scale, SCAL (1978); the Marine Science Test, MST (1987); the Science Attitude Inventory, SAI (1970); and the Environmental Attitude Scale, EAS (1972). Using a stratified random design, three groups of students were randomly assigned according to sex and stanine level, to three treatment groups. Group one received the field project method, group two received the field study method, and group three received the field trip method. All three groups followed the marine biology course content as specified by Florida Student Performance Objectives and Frameworks. The intervention occurred for ten months with each group participating in outside-of-classroom activities on a trimonthly basis. Analysis of covariance procedures were used to determine treatment effects. F-ratios, p-levels and t-tests at p $<$.0062 (.05/8) indicated that a significant difference existed among the three treatment groups. Findings indicated that groups one and two were significantly different from group three with group one displaying significantly higher results than group two. There were no significant differences between males and females in performance on the five dependent variables. The tenets underlying environmental education are congruent with the recommendations toward the reform of science education. These include a value analysis approach, inquiry methods, and critical thinking strategies that are applied to environmental issues. ^

A comparative analysis of school satisfaction and dropout risk of middle school students attending programs for students with emotional handicaps, severe emotional disturbance and general education students attending center schools and satellite schools

This study evaluated school satisfaction as an indicator of dropout risk of students with Emotional Handicaps (EH) and students with Severe Emotional Disturbance (SED). The students attended two different kinds of middle schools in a largely urban school district in South Florida. One hundred eight students in grade 8 (ages 13-16) participated in this study. Participants were administered the National Dropout Prevention Assessment (NDPA). Forty participants with EH and SED attended a special center school. Thirty-one participants with EH and SED attended satellite programs in a regular middle school. Thirty-seven general education participants attended the same regular middle school. Overall school satisfaction scores were generated, as well as three primary factors (school, environment and personal) and 16 subscales (school atmosphere, future income, difficulty level of classwork, teacher relationships, peer relationships, intrinsic interest in classwork, school hours, classwork stress, general attitude towards school, family influence, perceived opportunity for career, future goals, travel distance, leisure time, self-appraisal of performance, and self-esteem).^ Comparison of students with EH and SED revealed that both groups of students were rated at "low risk" of becoming dropouts on the Environmental factor and the Difficulty of Schoolwork subscale. Students with EH were rated at "caution risk" risk on the Travel Distance subscale. Students with SED were rated at "high risk" on this subscale.^ There were no significant differences in school satisfaction and dropout risk between different program delivery models. There were also no significant differences for category of students (EH, SED) by school type (center school, satellite program). All students were rated at "low risk" of dropping out of school.^ There were significant differences between general education students and students with EH and SED attending satellite programs. Students with EH and SED were rated at "caution risk" for dropping out on the Travel Distance and the Leisure Time subscales. Discussion of results, implications for practice and recommendations for further research are included. ^

Maltreatment, psychiatric symptoms and human immunodeficiency virus/sexual transmitted infection risk behavior among youth with alcohol and other drug use problems: A person-centered analysis

Multi-problem youth undergoing treatment for substance use problems are at high behavioral risk for exposure to sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Specific risk factors include childhood adversities such as maltreatment experiences and subsequent forms of psychopathology. The current study used a person-centered analytical approach to examine how childhood maltreatment experiences were related to patterns of psychiatric symptoms and HIV/STI risk behaviors in a sample of adolescents (N = 408) receiving treatment services. Data were collected in face-to-face interviews at two community-based facilities. Descriptive statistics and Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) were used to (a) classify adolescents into groups based on past year psychiatric symptoms, and (b) examine relations between class membership and forms of childhood maltreatment experiences, as well as past year sexual risk behavior (SRB). ^ LPA results indicated significant heterogeneity in psychiatric symptoms among the participants. The three classes generated via the optimal LPA solution included: (a) a low psychiatric symptoms class, (b) a high alcohol symptoms class and (c) a high internalizing symptoms class. Class membership was associated significantly with adolescents’ self-reported scores for childhood sexual abuse and emotional neglect. ANOVAs documented significant differences in mean scores for multiple indices of SRB indices by class membership, demonstrating differential risk for HIV/STI exposure across classes. The two classes characterized by elevated psychiatric symptom profiles and more severe maltreatment histories were at increased behavioral risk for HIV/STI exposure, compared to the low psychiatric symptoms class. The high internalizing symptoms class reported the highest scores for most of the indices of SRB assessed. The heterogeneity of psychiatric symptom patterns documented in the current study has important implications for HIV/STI prevention programs implemented with multi-problem youth. The results highlight complex relations between childhood maltreatment experiences, psychopathology and multiple forms of health risk behavior among adolescents. The results underscore the importance of further integration between substance abuse treatment and HIV/STI risk reduction efforts to improve morbidity and mortality among vulnerable youth. ^

Development of local homeland security networks in the state of Florida: A social network analysis approach

How do local homeland security organizations respond to catastrophic events such as hurricanes and acts of terrorism? Among the most important aspects of this response are these organizations ability to adapt to the uncertain nature of these "focusing events" (Birkland 1997). They are often behind the curve, seeing response as a linear process, when in fact it is a complex, multifaceted process that requires understanding the interactions between the fiscal pressures facing local governments, the institutional pressures of working within a new regulatory framework and the political pressures of bringing together different levels of government with different perspectives and agendas. ^ This dissertation has focused on tracing the factors affecting the individuals and institutions planning, preparing, responding and recovering from natural and man-made disasters. Using social network analysis, my study analyzes the interactions between the individuals and institutions that respond to these "focusing events." In practice, it is the combination of budgetary, institutional, and political pressures or constraints interacting with each other which resembles a Complex Adaptive System (CAS). ^ To investigate this system, my study evaluates the evolution of two separate sets of organizations composed of first responders (Fire Chiefs, Emergency Management Coordinators) and community volunteers organized in the state of Florida over the last fifteen years. Using a social network analysis approach, my dissertation analyzes the interactions between Citizen Corps Councils (CCCs) and Community Emergency Response Teams (CERTs) in the state of Florida from 1996–2011. It is the pattern of interconnections that occur over time that are the focus of this study. ^ The social network analysis revealed an increase in the amount and density of connections between these organizations over the last fifteen years. The analysis also exposed the underlying patterns in these connections; that as the networks became more complex they also became more decentralized though not in any uniform manner. The present study brings to light a story of how communities have adapted to the ever changing circumstances that are sine qua non of natural and man-made disasters.^

Climate Change and Regions at Risk: A Look at Central America

Climate change has been a security issue for mankind since Homo sapiens first emerged on the planet, driving him to find new and better food, water, shelter, and basic resources for survival and the advancement of civilization. Only recently, however, has the rate of climate change coupled with man’s knowledge of his own role in that change accelerated, perhaps profoundly, changing the security paradigm. If we take a ―decades‖ look at the security issue, we see competition for natural resources giving way to Cold War ideological containment and deterrence, itself giving way to non-state terrorism and extremism. While we continue to defend against these threats, we are faced with even greater security challenges that inextricably tie economic, food and human security together and where the flash points may not provide clearly discernable causes, as they will be intrinsically tied to climate change. Several scientific reports have revealed that the modest development gains that can be realized by some regions could be reversed by climate change. This means that climate change is not just a long-term environmental threat as was widely believed, but an economic and developmental disaster that is unfolding. As such, addressing climate change has become central to the development and poverty reduction by the World Bank and other financial institutions. In Latin America, poorer countries and communities, such as those found in Central America, will suffer the hardest because of weaker resilience and greater reliance on climatesensitive sectors such as agriculture. The US should attempt to deliver capability to assist these states to deal with the effects of climate change.

Disater Risk Management Disparity in the Caribbean: Evidence from Barbados, Dominican Republic, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago

This study on risk and disaster management capacities of four Caribbean countries: Barbados, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, examines three main dimensions: 1) the impact of natural disasters from 1900 to 2010 (number of events, number of people killed, total number affected, and damage in US$); 2) institutional assessments of disaster risk management disparity; and 3) the 2010 Inter-American Bank for Development (IADB) Disaster Risk and Risk Management indicators for the countries under study. The results show high consistency among the different sources examined, pointing out the need to extend the IADB measurements to the rest of the Caribbean countries. Indexes and indicators constitute a comparison measure vis-à-vis existing benchmarks in order to anticipate a capacity to deal with adverse events and their consequences; however, the indexes and indicators could only be tested against the occurrence of a real event. Therefore, the need exists to establish a sustainable and comprehensive evaluation system after important disasters to assess a country’s performance, verify the indicators, and gain feedback on measurement systems and methodologies. There is diversity in emergency and preparedness for disasters in the four countries under study. The nature of the event (hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and seismic activity), especially its frequency and the intensity of the damage experienced, is related to how each has designed its risk and disaster management policies and programs to face natural disasters. Vulnerabilities to disaster risks have been increasing, among other factors, because of uncontrolled urbanization, demographic density and poverty increase, social and economic marginalization, and lack of building code enforcement. The four countries under study have shown improvements in risk management capabilities, yet they are far from being completed prepared. Barbados’ risk management performance is superior, in comparison, to the majority of the countries of the region. However, is still far in achieving high performance levels and sustainability in risk management, primarily when it has the highest gap between potential macroeconomic and financial losses and the ability to face them. The Dominican Republic has shown steady risk performance up to 2008, but two remaining areas for improvement are hazard monitoring and early warning systems. Jamaica has made uneven advances between 1990 and 2008, requiring significant improvements to achieve high performance levels and sustainability in risk management, as well as macroeconomic mitigation infrastructure. Trinidad and Tobago has the lowest risk management score of the 15 countries in the Latin American and Caribbean region as assessed by the IADB study in 2010, yet it has experienced an important vulnerability reduction. In sum, the results confirmed the high disaster risk management disparity in the Caribbean region.

A meta -analysis of empirical research studies on resilience among students at -risk for school failure

Being at-risk is a growing problem in the U.S. because of disturbing societal trends such as unemployment, divorce, substance abuse, child abuse and neglect, and the new threat of terrorist violence. Resilience characterizes individuals who rebound from or adapt to adversities such as these, and academic resilience distinguishes at-risk students who succeed in school despite hardships. ^ The purpose of this research was to perform a meta-analysis to examine the power of resilience and to suggest ways educators might improve academic resilience, which was operationalized by satisfactory test scores and grades. In order to find all studies that were relevant to academic resilience in at-risk kindergarten through 12th-grade students, extensive electronic and hardcopy searches were conducted, and these resulted in a database of 421 articles. Two hundred eighty seven of these were rejected quickly, because they were not empirical research. Upon further examination, another 106 were rejected for not meeting study protocol criteria. Ultimately, 28 studies were coded for study level descriptors and effect size variables. ^ Protective factors for resilience were found to originate in physical, psychological, and behavioral domains on proximal/intraindividual, transitional/intrafamilial, or distal/extrafamilial levels. Effect sizes (ESs) for these were weighted and the means for each level or category were interpreted by commonly accepted benchmarks. Mean effect sizes for proximal (M = .27) and for transitional (M = .15) were small but significant. The mean effect size for the distal level was insignificant. This supported the hypotheses that the proximal level was the source of most protective factors for academic resilience in at-risk students followed by the transitional level. The distal effect size warranted further research particularly in light of the small number of studies (n = 11) contributing effect sizes to that category. A homogeneity test indicated a search for moderators, i.e., study variables affecting outcomes, was justified. “Category” was the largest moderator. Graphs of weighted mean effect sizes in the physical, psychological, and behavioral domains were plotted for each level to better illustrate the findings of the meta-analysis. Suggestions were made for combining resilience development with aspects of positive psychology to promote resilience in the schools. ^