An autoregressive conditional filtering process to remove intraday seasonal volatility and its application to testing the noisy rational expectations model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

Social and seasonal plasticity of the electric fish, Brachyhypopomus gauderio

The South American electric knifefish, Brachyhypopomus gauderio, uses weakly electric fields to see and communicate in the dark. Only one study to date has investigated natural behavior in this species during the breeding season; this study proposed that B. guarerio has an exploded lek polygyny breeding system. To test this hypothesis, artificial marshes simulating the native vegetation, temperature, and water conductivities of the South American subtropics were created to study seasonal variation in associative behavior of B. gauderio during the breeding and non-breeding seasons. Mark/recapture methods were used to keep track of individual fish and their dispersion inside the experimental designs. The experimental design proved to be extremely successful at eliciting reproduction. Differences were found in seasonal variations of social behaviors between adult and juvenile populations. Although no apparent sex. differences in movement patterns were found during the breeding season; a trend for male-male aversion was found, suggesting male-male avoidance as a possible strategy guiding aspects of social behaviors in this species. Further, movement may be a tactic for mate seeking as the individuals who moved the most during the breeding season obtained the most opposite sex interactions. These findings support the exploded lek polygyny model. Social interactions are subject to complex regulation by social, physiologic and ecological factors; the extent to which these associations are repeatable may provide novel insights on the evolution of sociality as it has been shaped by natural selection.

Seasonal plant water uptake patterns in the saline southeast Everglades ecotone

The purpose of this study was to determine the seasonal water use patterns of dominant macrophytes coexisting in the coastal Everglades ecotone. We measured the stable isotope signatures in plant xylem water of Rhizophora mangle, Cladium jamaicense, and Sesuvium portulacastrum during the dry (DS) and wet (WS) seasons in the estuarine ecotone along Taylor River in Everglades National Park, FL, USA. Shallow soilwater and deeper groundwater salinity was also measured to extrapolate the salinity encountered by plants at their rooting zone. Average soil water oxygen isotope ratios (δ 18O) was enriched (4.8 ± 0.2‰) in the DS relative to the WS (0.0 ± 0.1‰), but groundwater δ 18O remained constant between seasons (DS: 2.2 ± 0.4‰; WS: 2.1 ± 0.1‰). There was an inversion in interstitial salinity patterns across the soil profile between seasons. In the DS, shallow water was euhaline [i.e., 43 practical salinity units (PSU)] while groundwater was less saline (18 PSU). In the WS, however, shallow water was fresh (i.e., 0 PSU) but groundwater remained brackish (14 PSU). All plants utilized 100% (shallow) freshwater during the WS, but in the DS R. mangle switched to a soil–groundwater mix (δ 55% groundwater) while C. jamaicense and S. portulacastrum continued to use euhaline shallow water. In the DS, based on δ 18O data, the roots of R. mangle roots were exposed to salinities of 25.4 ± 1.4 PSU, less saline than either C. jamaicense(39.1 ± 2.2 PSU) or S. portulacastrum (38.6 ± 2.5 PSU). Although the salinity tolerance of C. jamaicense is not known, it is unlikely that long-term exposure to high salinity is conducive to the persistence of this freshwater marsh sedge. This study increases our ecological understanding of how water uptake patterns of individual plants can contribute to ecosystem levels changes, not only in the southeast saline Everglades, but also in estuaries in general in response to global sea level rise and human-induced changes in freshwater flows.

Seasonal fish community variation in headwater mangrove creeks in the southwestern Everglades: an examination of their role as dry-down refuges

The connectivity between the fish community of estuarine mangroves and that of freshwater habitats upstream remains poorly understood. In the Florida Everglades, mangrove-lined creeks link freshwater marshes to estuarine habitats downstream and may act as dry-season refuges for freshwater fishes. We examined seasonal dynamics in the fish community of ecotonal creeks in the southwestern region of Everglades National Park, specifically Rookery Branch and the North and watson rivers. Twelve low-order creeks were sampled via electrofishing, gill nets, and minnow traps during the wet season, transition period, and dry season in 2004-2005. Catches were greater in Rookery Branch than in the North and watson rivers, particularly during the transition period. Community composition varied seasonally in Rookery Branch, and to a greater extent for the larger species, reflecting a pulse of freshwater taxa into creeks as marshes upstream dried periodically. The pulse was short-lived, a later sample showed substantial decreases in freshwater fish numbers. No evidence of a similar influx was seen in the North and watson rivers, which drain shorter hydroperiod marshes and exhibit higher salinities. These results suggest that head-water creeks can serve as important dry-season refugia. Increased freshwater flow resulting from Everglades restoration may enhance this connectivity.

Seasonal and spatial variation in the stable isotopic composition (δ18O and δD) of precipitation in south Florida

Precipitation data collected from five sites in south Florida indicate a strong seasonal and spatial variation in δ18O and δD, despite the relatively limited geographic coverage and low-lying elevation of each of the collection sites. Based upon the weighted-mean stable isotope values, the sites were classified as coastal Atlantic, inland, and lower Florida Keys. The coastal Atlantic sites had weighted-mean values of δ18O and δD of −2.86‰ and −12.8‰, respectively, and exhibited a seasonal variation with lower δ18O and δD values in the summer wet-season precipitation (δ18O = −3.38‰, δD = −16.5‰) as compared to the winter-time precipitation (δ18O = −1.66‰, δD = −3.2‰). The inland site was characterized as having the highest d-excess value (+13.3‰), signifying a contribution of evaporated Everglades surface water to the local atmospheric moisture. In spite of its lower latitude, the lower Keys site located at Long Key had the lowest weighted-mean stable isotope values (δ18O = −3.64‰, δD = −20.2‰) as well as the lowest d-excess value of (+8.8‰). The lower δD and δ18O values observed at the Long Key site reflect the combined effects of oceanic vapor source, fractionation due to local precipitation, and slower equilibration of the larger raindrops nucleated by a maritime aerosol. Very low δ18O and δD values (δ18O < −6‰, δD < −40‰) were observed just prior to the passage of hurricanes from the Gulf of Mexico as well as during cold fronts from the north-west. These results suggest that an oceanic vapor source region to the west, may be responsible for the extremely low δD and δ18O values observed during some tropical storms and cold fronts.

Spatial and seasonal variability in elemental content, δ13C, and δ15N ofThalassia testudinum from South Florida and its implications for ecosystem studies

Elemental and isotopic composition of leaves of the seagrassThalassia testudinum was highly variable across the 10,000 km2 and 8 years of this study. The data reported herein expand the reported range in carbon:nitrogen (C:N) and carbon:phosphorus (C:P) ratios and δ13C and δ15N values reported for this species worldwide; 13.2–38.6 for C:N and 411–2,041 for C:P. The 981 determinations in this study generated a range of −13.5‰ to −5.2‰ for δ13C and −4.3‰ to 9.4‰ for δ15N. The elemental and isotope ratios displayed marked seasonality, and the seasonal patterns could be described with a simple sine wave model. C:N, C:P, δ13C, and δ15N values all had maxima in the summer and minima in the winter. Spatial patterns in the summer maxima of these quantities suggest there are large differences in the relative availability of N and P across the study area and that there are differences in the processing and the isotopic composition of C and N. This work calls into question the interpretation of studies about nutrient cycling and food webs in estuaries based on few samples collected at one time, since we document natural variability greater than the signal often used to imply changes in the structure or function of ecosystems. The data and patterns presented in this paper make it clear that there is no threshold δ15N value for marine plants that can be used as an unambiguous indicator of human sewage pollution without a thorough understanding of local temporal and spatial variability.

Modeling seasonal dynamics of small fish cohorts in fluctuating freshwater marsh landscapes

Small-bodied fishes constitute an important assemblage in many wetlands. In wetlands that dry periodically except for small permanent waterbodies, these fishes are quick to respond to change and can undergo large fluctuations in numbers and biomasses. An important aspect of landscapes that are mixtures of marsh and permanent waterbodies is that high rates of biomass production occur in the marshes during flooding phases, while the permanent waterbodies serve as refuges for many biotic components during the dry phases. The temporal and spatial dynamics of the small fishes are ecologically important, as these fishes provide a crucial food base for higher trophic levels, such as wading birds. We develop a simple model that is analytically tractable, describing the main processes of the spatio-temporal dynamics of a population of small-bodied fish in a seasonal wetland environment, consisting of marsh and permanent waterbodies. The population expands into newly flooded areas during the wet season and contracts during declining water levels in the dry season. If the marsh dries completely during these times (a drydown), the fish need refuge in permanent waterbodies. At least three new and general conclusions arise from the model: (1) there is an optimal rate at which fish should expand into a newly flooding area to maximize population production; (2) there is also a fluctuation amplitude of water level that maximizes fish production, and (3) there is an upper limit on the number of fish that can reach a permanent waterbody during a drydown, no matter how large the marsh surface area is that drains into the waterbody. Because water levels can be manipulated in many wetlands, it is useful to have an understanding of the role of these fluctuations.

Application of excitation emission matrix fluorescence monitoring in the assessment of spatial and seasonal drivers of dissolved organic matter composition: Sources and physical disturbance controls

The environmental dynamics of dissolved organic matter (DOM) were characterized for a shallow, subtropical, seagrass-dominated estuarine bay, namely Florida Bay, USA. Large spatial and seasonal variations in DOM quantity and quality were assessed using dissolved organic C (DOC) measurements and spectrophotometric properties including excitation emission matrix (EEM) fluorescence with parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC). Surface water samples were collected monthly for 2 years across the bay. DOM characteristics were statistically different across the bay, and the bay was spatially characterized into four basins based on chemical characteristics of DOM as determined by EEM-PARAFAC. Differences between zones were explained based on hydrology, geomorphology, and primary productivity of the local seagrass community. In addition, potential disturbance effects from a very active hurricane season were identified. Although the overall seasonal patterns of DOM variations were not significantly affected on a bay-wide scale by this disturbance, enhanced freshwater delivery and associated P and DOM inputs (both quantity and quality) were suggested as potential drivers for the appearance of algal blooms in high impact areas. The application of EEM-PARAFAC proved to be ideally suited for studies requiring high sample throughput methods to assess spatial and temporal ecological drivers and to determine disturbance-induced impacts in aquatic ecosystems.

Spatial, geomorphological, and seasonal variability of CDOM in estuaries of the Florida Coastal Everglades

This paper demonstrates the usefulness of fluorescence techniques for long-term monitoring and assessment of the dynamics (sources, transport and fate) of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in highly compartmentalized estuarine regions with non-point water sources. Water samples were collected monthly from a total of 73 sampling stations in the Florida Coastal Everglades (FCE) estuaries during 2001 and 2002. Spatial and seasonal variability of CDOM characteristics were investigated for geomorphologically distinct sub-regions within Florida Bay (FB), the Ten Thousand Islands (TTI), and Whitewater Bay (WWB). These variations were observed in both quantity and quality of CDOM. TOC concentrations in the FCE estuaries were generally higher during the wet season (June–October), reflecting high freshwater loadings from the Everglades in TTI, and a high primary productivity of marine biomass in FB. Fluorescence parameters suggested that the CDOM in FB is mainly of marine/microbial origin, while for TTI and WWB a terrestrial origin from Everglades marsh plants and mangroves was evident. Variations in CDOM quality seemed mainly controlled by tidal exchange/mixing of Everglades freshwater with Florida Shelf waters, tidally controlled releases of CDOM from fringe mangroves, primary productivity of marine vegetation in FB and diagenetic processes such as photodegradation (particularly for WWB). The source and dynamics of CDOM in these subtropical estuaries is complex and found to be influenced by many factors including hydrology, geomorphology, vegetation cover, landuse and biogeochemical processes. Simple, easy to measure, high sample throughput fluorescence parameters for surface waters can add valuable information on CDOM dynamics to long-term water quality studies which can not be obtained from quantitative determinations alone.

Hydroperiod and seasonal effects on fish decomposition in an oligotrophic Everglades marsh

In the Everglades, the majority of fish detrital inputs occur during the dry scason, when waterlevel drawdown reduces aquatic habitat. While these mortality events are highly seasonal, the remineralization and recycling of fish detrital nutrients may represent an important stimulus to the ecosystem in the following wet season. The goal of this study was to quantify the rate of detrital fish decomposition during three periods of the year to determine seasonal variations in decomposition patterns in this ecosystem. A multiple regression analysis showed that hydroperiod and water depth both played a role in determining fish decomposition rates within this ecosystem. Decomposition rates ranged from a low of 13% day−1 in December 2000 to a high of 50% day−1 in April 2001, the height of the dry season. Phosphorus analysis showed that Gambusia holbrooki, the dominant small fish species in the Everglades, contains 7.169±1.46 mg P g−1 wet fish weight. Based on the observed decomposition rates and the average biomass added, the estimafed daily flux of phosphorus from the experimental detrital loading ranged from a low of 27.04 mg P day−1 to a high of 108.14 mg P day−1 during the decomposition period. We estimated that these inputs could represent an input of 43 μg P m−2 day−1 to the total temporal Everglades phosphorus budget. Although much of this phosphorus is likely incorporated into the macroinvertebrate pool, detrital inputs peak during the dry season when nutrients are most likely to be incorporated into the soil and occur when decomposition of vegetative material is moisture-limited. These inputs may therefore play an important role in stimulating vegetative production during the early wet season.

Seasonal differences in the CO2 exchange of a short-hydroperiod Florida Everglades marsh

Although wetlands are among the world's most productive ecosystems, little is known of long-term CO2 exchange in tropical and subtropical wetlands. The Everglades is a highly managed wetlands complex occupying >6000 km2 in south Florida. This ecosystem is oligotrophic, but extremely high rates of productivity have been previously reported. To evaluate CO2 exchange and its response to seasonality (dry vs. wet season) in the Everglades, an eddy covariance tower was established in a short-hydroperiod marl marsh. Rates of net ecosystem exchange and ecosystem respiration were small year-round and declined in the wet season relative to the dry season. Inundation reduced macrophyte CO2 uptake, substantially limiting gross ecosystem production. While light and air temperature exerted the primary controls on net ecosystem exchange and ecosystem respiration in the dry season, inundation weakened these relationships. The ecosystem shifted from a CO2 sink in the dry season to a CO2 source in the wet season; however, the marsh was a small carbon sink on an annual basis. Net ecosystem production, ecosystem respiration, and gross ecosystem production were −49.9, 446.1 and 496.0 g C m−2 year−1, respectively. Unexpectedly low CO2 flux rates and annual production distinguish the Everglades from many other wetlands. Nonetheless, impending changes in water management are likely to alter the CO2 balance of this wetland and may increase the source strength of these extensive short-hydroperiod wetlands.

Diel and seasonal variation in the use of a nearshore sandflat by a ray community in a near pristine system

Knowledge of movements and habitat use is necessary to assess a species’ ecological role and is especially important for mesopredators because they provide the link between upper and lower trophic levels. Using acoustic telemetry, we examined coarse-scale diel and seasonal movements of elasmobranch mesopredators on a shallow sandflat in Shark Bay, Western Australia. Giant shovelnose rays (Glaucostegus typus) and reticulate whiprays (Himantura uarnak) were most often detected in nearshore microhabitats and were regularly detected throughout the day and year, although reticulate whiprays tended to frequent the monitored array over longer periods. Pink whiprays (H. fai) and cowtail stingrays (Pastinachus atrus) were also detected throughout the day, but were far less frequently detected. Overall, there was no apparent spatial or temporal partitioning of the sandflats, but residency to the area varied between species. In addition, ray presence throughout the year suggests that previously observed differences in seasonal abundance are likely because of seasonal changes in habitat use rather than large-scale migrations. Continuous use of the sandflats and limited movements within this ray community suggests that rays have the potential to be a structuring force on this system and that focusing on nearshore habitats is important for managing subtropical ray populations.

Biogeochemical Contributions of Tree Islands to Everglades Wetland Landscape Nitrogen Cycling During Seasonal Inundation

In the Florida Everglades, tree islands are conspicuous heterogeneous elements in the herbaceous wetland landscape. We characterized the biogeochemical role of a seasonally flooded tree island during wet season inundation, specifically examining hydrologically mediated flows of nitrogen (N) and N retention by the tree island. We estimated ecosystem N standing stocks and fluxes, soil and litter N transformation rates, and hydrologic fluxes of N to quantify the net ecosystem N mass flux. Results showed that hydrologic sources of N were dominated by surface water loads of nitrate (NO3) and ammonium (NH4). Nitrate immobilization by soils and surficial leaf litter was an important sink for surface water dissolved inorganic N (DIN). We estimated that the net annual DIN retention by a seasonally flooded tree island was 20.5 ± 5.0 g m−2 during wet season inundation. Based on the estimated tree island surface water DIN loading rate, a seasonally flooded tree island retained 76% of imported DIN. As such, seasonally flooded tree islands have the potential to retain 55% of DIN entering the marsh landscape via upstream canal overland flow in the wet season. By increasing reactive surface area and DOC availability, we suggest that tree islands promote convergence of elements that enhance DIN retention. Tree islands of this region are thus important components of landscape-scale restoration efforts that seek to reduce sources of anthropogenic DIN to downstream estuaries.

Ethnic identification: Impact on HIV/AIDS risk among migrant and seasonal workers in South Florida

Migrant workers are one of the most rapidly growing populations in the United States (U.S.) and have been significantly affected by HIV/AIDS. More than 9 million people in the U.S., primarily concentrated in Texas, Florida, Washington, California, Oregon, and North Carolina, are migrant farm workers. High prevalence rates are also suspected among migrant worker communities where risky health behaviors appear to be common. Constant mobility, isolation, limited education, substandard housing, and poverty are some of the factors that migrant workers experience and in many cases increases their HIV risk. Recent studies have suggested that ethnic identity or the level of attachment with one's ethnic group may influence engagement in HIV risk behaviors, a fact that may be important in the development of interventions among ethnic minorities. This study assesses the relationship between ethnic identity and HIV risk behaviors in two different samples; one assesses this relationship at baseline with a total of 431 African American migrant and seasonal workers in Immokalee, Florida. The second analyzes changes in ethnic identity and HIV behaviors in a sample of 270 Hispanic and African American migrant and seasonal workers in Immokalee, Florida. Data from baseline and 6-month follow-up were used in the analyses presented. The results suggest that individuals with higher levels of ethnic identity report lower levels of engagement in some, but not all, of the risky behaviors examined. These findings point to a potentially protective role for ethnic identity among this sample.

Population viability analyses of Chamaecrista keyensis (Leguminosae: Caesalpinioideae), a narrowly endemic herb of the lower Florida Keys: Effects of seasonal timing of fires and the urban -wildland interface

This research first evaluated the effects of urban wildland interface on reproductive biology of the Big Pine Partridge Pea, Chamaecrista keyensis, an understory herb that is endemic to Big Pine Key, Florida. I found that C. keyensis was self-compatible, but depended on bees for seed set. Furthermore, individuals of C. keyensis in urban habitats suffered higher seed predation and therefore set fewer seeds than forest interior plants. ^ I then focused on the effects of fire at different times of the year, summer (wet) and winter (dry), on the population dynamics and population viability of C. keyensis. I found that C. keyensis population recovered faster after winter burns and early summer burns (May–June) than after late summer burns (July–September) due to better survival and seedling recruitment following former fires. Fire intensity had positive effects on reproduction of C. keyensis. In contrast, no significant fire intensity effects were found on survival, growth, and seedling recruitment. This indicated that better survival and seedling recruitment following winter and early summer burns (compared with late summer burns) were due to the reproductive phenology of the plant in relation to fires rather than differences in fire intensity. Deterministic population modeling showed that time since fire significantly affected the finite population growth rates (λ). Particularly, recently burned plots had the largest λ. In addition, effects of timing of fires on λ were most pronounced the year of burn, but not the subsequent years. The elasticity analyses suggested that maximizing survival is an effective way to minimize the reduction in finite population growth rate the year of burn. Early summer fires or dry-season fires may achieve this objective. Finally, stochastic simulations indicated that the C. keyensis population had lower extinction risk and population decline probability if burned in the winter than in the late summer. A fire frequency of approximately 7 years would create the lowest extinction probability for C. keyensis. A fire management regime including a wide range of burning seasons may be essential for the continued existence of C. keyensis and other endemic species of pine rockland on Big Pine Key. ^