Estimation and prediction of average vehicle occupancies using traffic accident records

As congestion management strategies begin to put more emphasis on person trips than vehicle trips, the need for vehicle occupancy data has become more critical. The traditional methods of collecting these data include the roadside windshield method and the carousel method. These methods are labor-intensive and expensive. An alternative to these traditional methods is to make use of the vehicle occupancy information in traffic accident records. This method is cost effective and may provide better spatial and temporal coverage than the traditional methods. However, this method is subject to potential biases resulting from under- and over-involvement of certain population sectors and certain types of accidents in traffic accident records. In this dissertation, three such potential biases, i.e., accident severity, driver’s age, and driver’s gender, were investigated and the corresponding bias factors were developed as needed. The results show that although multi-occupant vehicles are involved in higher percentages of severe accidents than are single-occupant vehicles, multi-occupant vehicles in the whole accident vehicle population were not overrepresented in the accident database. On the other hand, a significant difference was found between the distributions of the ages and genders of drivers involved in accidents and those of the general driving population. An information system that incorporates adjustments for the potential biases was developed to estimate the average vehicle occupancies (AVOs) for different types of roadways on the Florida state roadway system. A reasonableness check of the results from the system shows AVO estimates that are highly consistent with expectations. In addition, comparisons of AVOs from accident data with the field estimates show that the two data sources produce relatively consistent results. While accident records can be used to obtain the historical AVO trends and field data can be used to estimate the current AVOs, no known methods have been developed to project future AVOs. Four regression models for the purpose of predicting weekday AVOs on different levels of geographic areas and roadway types were developed as part of this dissertation. The models show that such socioeconomic factors as income, vehicle ownership, and employment have a significant impact on AVOs.

Diversity of Hymenoptera, cultivated plants and management practices in home garden agroecosystems, Kyrgyz Republic

Pollination-dependent fruit trees grown in home gardens play an important role in the agricultural based economy of Central Asian countries, yet little is known about the status of pollinator communities, the cultivated plant composition or the factors that influence management practices in Kyrgyz home garden agroecosystems. As agricultural systems are human created and managed, a logical approach to their study blends anthropological and ecological methods, an ethnoecological approach. Over three years, I investigated how species richness and abundance of Hymenoptera, cultivated plants, and home garden management were related using quantitative and qualitative methods in the Issyk-kul Man and Biosphere reserve. Structured surveys were undertaken with heads of households using a random sample stratified by village. Gardens were then mapped with participation of household members to inventory edible species in gardens, most of which are pollinator-dependent, and to compare home garden diversity as reported by respondents during interviews. Apple diversity was studied to the variety level to understand respondents’ classification system in the context of in situ agrobiodiversity conservation. Household members identified 52 edible plant species when mapping the garden, compared with 32 reported when interviewed. The proportion of plant species received from others through exchange and the number of plots cultivated significantly explained the variation in edible plant diversity among gardens. Insects were sampled in gardens and orchards to determine potential pollinator community composition and the effect of different management practices on Hymenoptera richness and abundance. I collected 756 Hymenoptera individuals (56 bee; 12 wasp species); 12 species were new records for Kyrgyzstan or within Kyrgyzstan. Economic pressures to intensify cultivation could impact management practices that currently promote diversity. A home garden development initiative was undertaken to study management practice improvement. Participants in the initiative had higher adoption rates than controls of management practices that improve long-term yield, ecological sustainability and stability of home gardens. Home gardens, as currently managed, support abundant and diverse pollinator communities and have high cultivated plant diversity with few differences in community composition between garden management types.

Process of privatization: Benefits of *reform in management of public housing

The study of the private management of public housing is an important topic to be critically analyzed as the government search for ways to increase efficiency in providing housing for the poor. Public Housing Authorities must address the cost for repairing or replacing the deteriorating housing stock, the increase in the need for affordable housing, and the lack of supply. There is growing pressure on efficient use of public funds that has heightened the need for profound structural reform. An important strategy for carrying out such reform is through privatization. Although privatization does not work in every case, the majority position in the traditional privatization literature is that reliance on private organizations normally, but not always, results in cost savings. ^ The primary purpose of this dissertation is to determine whether a consensus exist among decision-makers on the efficiency of privatizing the management of public housing. A secondary purpose is to review the techniques (best practices) used by the private sector that results in cost-efficiencies in the management of public housing. The study employs the use of a triangulated research design utilizing cross-sectional survey methodology that included use of a survey instrument to solicit responses from the private managers. The study consists of qualitative methods using interviews from key informants of private-sector management firms and public housing agencies, case studies, focus groups, archival records and housing authorities documents. ^ Results indicated that important decision-makers perceive that private managers made a positive contribution to cost-efficiencies in the management of public housing. The performance of private contractors served as a yardstick for comparison of efficiency of services that are produced in-house. The study concluded that private managers made the benefits of their management techniques well known creating a sense of competition between public and private managers. Competition from private contractors spurred municipal worker and management productivity improvements creating better management results for the public housing authorities. The study results are in concert with a review of recent research and studies that also concluded private managers have some distinct advantages to controlling costs in the management of public housing. ^

Estimation and Prediction of Average Vehicle Occupancies using Traffic Accident Records

As congestion management strategies begin to put more emphasis on person trips than vehicle trips, the need for vehicle occupancy data has become more critical. The traditional methods of collecting these data include the roadside windshield method and the carousel method. These methods are labor-intensive and expensive. An alternative to these traditional methods is to make use of the vehicle occupancy information in traffic accident records. This method is cost effective and may provide better spatial and temporal coverage than the traditional methods. However, this method is subject to potential biases resulting from under- and over-involvement of certain population sectors and certain types of accidents in traffic accident records. In this dissertation, three such potential biases, i.e., accident severity, driver¡¯s age, and driver¡¯s gender, were investigated and the corresponding bias factors were developed as needed. The results show that although multi-occupant vehicles are involved in higher percentages of severe accidents than are single-occupant vehicles, multi-occupant vehicles in the whole accident vehicle population were not overrepresented in the accident database. On the other hand, a significant difference was found between the distributions of the ages and genders of drivers involved in accidents and those of the general driving population. An information system that incorporates adjustments for the potential biases was developed to estimate the average vehicle occupancies (AVOs) for different types of roadways on the Florida state roadway system. A reasonableness check of the results from the system shows AVO estimates that are highly consistent with expectations. In addition, comparisons of AVOs from accident data with the field estimates show that the two data sources produce relatively consistent results. While accident records can be used to obtain the historical AVO trends and field data can be used to estimate the current AVOs, no known methods have been developed to project future AVOs. Four regression models for the purpose of predicting weekday AVOs on different levels of geographic areas and roadway types were developed as part of this dissertation. The models show that such socioeconomic factors as income, vehicle ownership, and employment have a significant impact on AVOs.

Diversity of Hymenoptera, Cultivated Plants and Management Practices in Home Garden Agroecosystems, Kyrgyz Republic

Pollination-dependent fruit trees grown in home gardens play an important role in the agricultural based economy of Central Asian countries, yet little is known about the status of pollinator communities, the cultivated plant composition or the factors that influence management practices in Kyrgyz home garden agroecosystems. As agricultural systems are human created and managed, a logical approach to their study blends anthropological and ecological methods, an ethnoecological approach. Over three years, I investigated how species richness and abundance of Hymenoptera, cultivated plants, and home garden management were related using quantitative and qualitative methods in the Issyk-kul Man and Biosphere reserve. Structured surveys were undertaken with heads of households using a random sample stratified by village. Gardens were then mapped with participation of household members to inventory edible species in gardens, most of which are pollinator-dependent, and to compare home garden diversity as reported by respondents during interviews. Apple diversity was studied to the variety level to understand respondents’ classification system in the context of in situ agrobiodiversity conservation. Household members identified 52 edible plant species when mapping the garden, compared with 32 reported when interviewed. The proportion of plant species received from others through exchange and the number of plots cultivated significantly explained the variation in edible plant diversity among gardens. Insects were sampled in gardens and orchards to determine potential pollinator community composition and the effect of different management practices on Hymenoptera richness and abundance. I collected 756 Hymenoptera individuals (56 bee; 12 wasp species); 12 species were new records for Kyrgyzstan or within Kyrgyzstan. Economic pressures to intensify cultivation could impact management practices that currently promote diversity. A home garden development initiative was undertaken to study management practice improvement. Participants in the initiative had higher adoption rates than controls of management practices that improve long-term yield, ecological sustainability and stability of home gardens. Home gardens, as currently managed, support abundant and diverse pollinator communities and have high cultivated plant diversity with few differences in community composition between garden management types.

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.