A methodology to estimate time varying user responses to travel time and travel time reliability in a road pricing environment

Road pricing has emerged as an effective means of managing road traffic demand while simultaneously raising additional revenues to transportation agencies. Research on the factors that govern travel decisions has shown that user preferences may be a function of the demographic characteristics of the individuals and the perceived trip attributes. However, it is not clear what are the actual trip attributes considered in the travel decision- making process, how these attributes are perceived by travelers, and how the set of trip attributes change as a function of the time of the day or from day to day. In this study, operational Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) archives are mined and the aggregated preferences for a priced system are extracted at a fine time aggregation level for an extended number of days. The resulting information is related to corresponding time-varying trip attributes such as travel time, travel time reliability, charged toll, and other parameters. The time-varying user preferences and trip attributes are linked together by means of a binary choice model (Logit) with a linear utility function on trip attributes. The trip attributes weights in the utility function are then dynamically estimated for each time of day by means of an adaptive, limited-memory discrete Kalman filter (ALMF). The relationship between traveler choices and travel time is assessed using different rules to capture the logic that best represents the traveler perception and the effect of the real-time information on the observed preferences. The impact of travel time reliability on traveler choices is investigated considering its multiple definitions. It can be concluded based on the results that using the ALMF algorithm allows a robust estimation of time-varying weights in the utility function at fine time aggregation levels. The high correlations among the trip attributes severely constrain the simultaneous estimation of their weights in the utility function. Despite the data limitations, it is found that, the ALMF algorithm can provide stable estimates of the choice parameters for some periods of the day. Finally, it is found that the daily variation of the user sensitivities for different periods of the day resembles a well-defined normal distribution.

Participation in a positive youth development program and multi -problem alternative high school students' transformative goals: An investigation of the theoretical and methodological utility and validity of the Transformative Goal Attainment (TGAS)

There is a growing body of literature that provides evidence for the efficacy of positive youth development programs in general and preliminary empirical support for the efficacy of the Changing Lives Program (CLP) in particular. This dissertation sought to extend previous efforts to develop and preliminarily examine the Transformative Goal Attainment Scale (TGAS) as a measure of participant empowerment in the promotion of positive development. Consistent with recent advances in the use of qualitative research methods, this dissertation sought to further investigate the utility of Relational Data Analysis (RDA) for providing categorizations of qualitative open-ended response data. In particular, a qualitative index of Transformative Goals, TG, was developed to complement the previously developed quantitative index of Transformative Goal Attainment (TGA), and RDA procedures for calculating reliability and content validity were refined. Second, as a Stage I pilot/feasibility study this study preliminarily examined the potentially mediating role of empowerment, as indexed by the TGAS, in the promotion of positive development. ^ Fifty-seven participants took part in this study, forty CLP intervention participants and seventeen control condition participants. All 57 participants were administered the study's measures just prior to and just following the fall 2003 semester. This study thus used a short-term longitudinal quasi-experimental research design with a comparison control group. ^ RDA procedures were refined and applied to the categorization of open-ended response data regarding participants' transformative goals (TG) and future possible selves (PSQ-QE). These analyses revealed relatively strong, indirect evidence for the construct validity of the categories as well as their theoretically meaningful structural organization, thereby providing sufficient support for the utility of RDA procedures in the categorization of qualitative open-ended response data. ^ In addition, transformative goals (TG) and future possible selves (PSQ-QE), and the quantitative index of perceived goal attainment (TGA) were evaluated as potential mediators of positive development by testing their relationships to other indices of positive intervention outcome within a four-step method involving both analysis of variance (ANOVA and RMANOVAs) and regression analysis. Though more limited in scope than the efforts at the development and refinement of the measures of these mediators, the results were also promising. ^