Essays on international macroeconomics and conflict analysis

This dissertation addressed two broad problems in international macroeconomics and conflict analysis. The first problem in the first chapter looked at the behavior of exchange rate and its interaction with industry-level tradable goods prices for three countries, USA, UK and Japan. This question has important monetary policy implications. Here, I computed to what extent changes in exchange rate affected prices of consumer, producer, and export goods. I also studied the timing of these changes in these prices. My results, based on thirty-four industrial prices for USA, UK and Japan, supported the view that changes in exchange rates significantly affect prices of industrial and consumer goods. It also provided an insight to the underlying economic process that led to changes in relative prices. ^ In the second chapter, I explored the predictability of future inflation by incorporating shocks to exchange rates and clearly specified the transmission mechanisms that link exchange rates to industry-level consumer and producer prices. Employing a variety of linear and state-of-the-art nonlinear models, I also predicted growth rates of future prices. Comparing levels of inflation obtained from the above approaches showed superiority of the structural model incorporating the exchange rate pass-through effect. ^ The second broad issue addressed in the third chapter of the dissertation investigated the economic motives for conflict, manifested by rebellion and civil war for seventeen Latin American countries. Based on the analytical framework of Garfinkel, Skaperdas and Syropoulos (2004), I employed ordinal regressions and Markov switching for a panel of seventeen countries to identify trade and openness factors responsible for conflict occurrence and intensity. The results suggested that increased trade openness reduced high intensity domestic conflicts but overdependence on agricultural exports, along with a lack of income earning opportunities lead to more conflicts. Thereafter, using the Cox Proportional Hazard model I studied “conflict duration” and found that over-reliance on agricultural exports explained a major part of the length of conflicts in addition to various socio-political factors. ^

Correlates of leaf optical properties in tropical forest sun and extreme-shade plants

Thirteens hade-adaptedr ain forest species were comparedw ith twelve sun-adaptedt ropical forest species for correlates to leaf optical properties (described previously in Amer. J. Bot. 73: 1100-1108). The two samples were similar in absorptance of quanta for photosynthesis, but the shade-adaptedt axa: 1) had significantlyl ower specificl eaf weights,i ndicatinga more metabolically efficient production of surface for quantum capture; 2) synthesized less chlorophyll per unit area; and 3) used less chlorophyll for capturing the same quanta for photosynthesis. The anatomical features that best correlate with this increased efficiency are palisade cell shape and chloroplast distribution. Palisade cells with more equal dimensions have more chloroplasts on their abaxial surfaces. This dense layer of chloroplasts maximizes the light capture efficiency limited by sieve effects. The more columnar palisade cells of sun-adapted taxa allow light to pass through the central vacuoles and spaces between cells, making chloroplasts less efficient in energy capture, but allowing light to reach chloroplasts in the spongy mesophyll. Pioneer species may be an exception to these two groups of species. Three pioneer taxa included in this study have columnar palisade cells that are extremely narrow and packed closely together. This layer allows little penetration of light, but exposure of the leaf undersurface may provide illumination of spongy mesophyll chloroplasts in these plants.