A Markov chain location-allocation meta-model for hurricane relief

An emergency is a deviation from a planned course of events that endangers people, properties, or the environment. It can be described as an unexpected event that causes economic damage, destruction, and human suffering. When a disaster happens, Emergency Managers are expected to have a response plan to most likely disaster scenarios. Unlike earthquakes and terrorist attacks, a hurricane response plan can be activated ahead of time, since a hurricane is predicted at least five days before it makes landfall. This research looked into the logistics aspects of the problem, in an attempt to develop a hurricane relief distribution network model. We addressed the problem of how to efficiently and effectively deliver basic relief goods to victims of a hurricane disaster. Specifically, where to preposition State Staging Areas (SSA), which Points of Distributions (PODs) to activate, and the allocation of commodities to each POD. Previous research has addressed several of these issues, but not with the incorporation of the random behavior of the hurricane's intensity and path. This research presents a stochastic meta-model that deals with the location of SSAs and the allocation of commodities. The novelty of the model is that it treats the strength and path of the hurricane as stochastic processes, and models them as Discrete Markov Chains. The demand is also treated as stochastic parameter because it depends on the stochastic behavior of the hurricane. However, for the meta-model, the demand is an input that is determined using Hazards United States (HAZUS), a software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) that estimates losses due to hurricanes and floods. A solution heuristic has been developed based on simulated annealing. Since the meta-model is a multi-objective problem, the heuristic is a multi-objective simulated annealing (MOSA), in which the initial solution and the cooling rate were determined via a Design of Experiments. The experiment showed that the initial temperature (T0) is irrelevant, but temperature reduction (δ) must be very gradual. Assessment of the meta-model indicates that the Markov Chains performed as well or better than forecasts made by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Tests of the MOSA showed that it provides solutions in an efficient manner. Thus, an illustrative example shows that the meta-model is practical.

Exotic meson decay widths using lattice quantum chromodynamics

Most experiments in particle physics are scattering experiments, the analysis of which leads to masses, scattering phases, decay widths and other properties of one or multi-particle systems. Until the advent of Lattice Quantum Chromodynamics (LQCD) it was difficult to compare experimental results on low energy hadron-hadron scattering processes to the predictions of QCD, the current theory of strong interactions. The reason being, at low energies the QCD coupling constant becomes large and the perturbation expansion for scattering; amplitudes does not converge. To overcome this, one puts the theory onto a lattice, imposes a momentum cutoff, and computes the integral numerically. For particle masses, predictions of LQCD agree with experiment, but the area of decay widths is largely unexplored. ^ LQCD provides ab initio access to unusual hadrons like exotic mesons that are predicted to contain real gluonic structure. To study decays of these type resonances the energy spectra of a two-particle decay state in a finite volume of dimension L can be related to the associated scattering phase shift δ(k) at momentum k through exact formulae derived by Lüscher. Because the spectra can be computed using numerical Monte Carlo techniques, the scattering phases can thus be determined using Lüscher's formulae, and the corresponding decay widths can be found by fitting Breit-Wigner functions. ^ Results of such a decay width calculation for an exotic hybrid( h) meson (JPC = 1-+) are presented for the decay channel h → πa 1. This calculation employed Lüscher's formulae and an approximation of LQCD called the quenched approximation. Energy spectra for the h and πa1 systems were extracted using eigenvalues of a correlation matrix, and the corresponding scattering phase shifts were determined for a discrete set of πa1 momenta. Although the number of phase shift data points was sparse, fits to a Breit-Wigner model were made, resulting in a decay width of about 60 MeV. ^

Lattice Boltzmann method for flow and heat transfer in microgeometries

Recent technological developments have made it possible to design various microdevices where fluid flow and heat transfer are involved. For the proper design of such systems, the governing physics needs to be investigated. Due to the difficulty to study complex geometries in micro scales using experimental techniques, computational tools are developed to analyze and simulate flow and heat transfer in microgeometries. However, conventional numerical methods using the Navier-Stokes equations fail to predict some aspects of microflows such as nonlinear pressure distribution, increase mass flow rate, slip flow and temperature jump at the solid boundaries. This necessitates the development of new computational methods which depend on the kinetic theory that are both accurate and computationally efficient. In this study, lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) was used to investigate the flow and heat transfer in micro sized geometries. The LBM depends on the Boltzmann equation which is valid in the whole rarefaction regime that can be observed in micro flows. Results were obtained for isothermal channel flows at Knudsen numbers higher than 0.01 at different pressure ratios. LBM solutions for micro-Couette and micro-Poiseuille flow were found to be in good agreement with the analytical solutions valid in the slip flow regime (0.01 < Kn < 0.1) and direct simulation Monte Carlo solutions that are valid in the transition regime (0.1 < Kn < 10) for pressure distribution and velocity field. The isothermal LBM was further extended to simulate flows including heat transfer. The method was first validated for continuum channel flows with and without constrictions by comparing the thermal LBM results against accurate solutions obtained from analytical equations and finite element method. Finally, the capability of thermal LBM was improved by adding the effect of rarefaction and the method was used to analyze the behavior of gas flow in microchannels. The major finding of this research is that, the newly developed particle-based method described here can be used as an alternative numerical tool in order to study non-continuum effects observed in micro-electro-mechanical-systems (MEMS).

Electroproduction of hyperons at low momentum transfer

A high resolution study of the H(e,e'K+)Λ,Σ 0 reaction was performed at Hall A, TJNAF as part of the hypernuclear experiment E94-107. One important ingredient to the measurement of the hypernuclear cross section is the elementary cross section for production of hyperons, Λ and Σ0. This reaction was studied using a hydrogen (i.e. a proton) target. Data were taken at very low Q2 (∼0.07 (GeV/c) 2) and W∼2.2 GeV. Kaons were detected along the direction of q, the momentum transferred by the incident electron (&thetas;CM∼6°). In addition, there are few data available regarding electroproduction of hyperons at low Q2 and &thetas;CM and the available theoretical models differ significantly in this kinematical region of W. The measurement of the elementary cross section was performed by scaling the Monte Carlo cross section (MCEEP) with the experimental-to-simulated yield ratio. The Monte Carlo cross section includes an experimental fit and extrapolation from the existing data for electroproduction of hyperons. Moreover, the estimated transverse component of the electroproduction cross section of H(e,e'K+)Λ was compared to the different predictions of the theoretical models and exisiting data curves for photoproductions of hyperons. None of the models fully describe the cross-section results over the entire angular range. Furthermore, measurements of the Σ 0/Λ production ratio were performed at &thetas; CM∼6°, where data are not available. Finally, data for the measurements of the differential cross sections and the Σ 0/Λ production were binned in Q2, W and &thetas;CM to understand the dependence on these variables. These results are not only a fundamental contribution to the hypernuclear spectroscopy studies but also an important experimental measurement to constrain existing theoretical models for the elementary reaction.

Lattice Boltzmann Method for Flow and Heat Transfer in Microgeometries

Recent technological developments have made it possible to design various microdevices where fluid flow and heat transfer are involved. For the proper design of such systems, the governing physics needs to be investigated. Due to the difficulty to study complex geometries in micro scales using experimental techniques, computational tools are developed to analyze and simulate flow and heat transfer in microgeometries. However, conventional numerical methods using the Navier-Stokes equations fail to predict some aspects of microflows such as nonlinear pressure distribution, increase mass flow rate, slip flow and temperature jump at the solid boundaries. This necessitates the development of new computational methods which depend on the kinetic theory that are both accurate and computationally efficient. In this study, lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) was used to investigate the flow and heat transfer in micro sized geometries. The LBM depends on the Boltzmann equation which is valid in the whole rarefaction regime that can be observed in micro flows. Results were obtained for isothermal channel flows at Knudsen numbers higher than 0.01 at different pressure ratios. LBM solutions for micro-Couette and micro-Poiseuille flow were found to be in good agreement with the analytical solutions valid in the slip flow regime (0.01 < Kn < 0.1) and direct simulation Monte Carlo solutions that are valid in the transition regime (0.1 < Kn < 10) for pressure distribution and velocity field. The isothermal LBM was further extended to simulate flows including heat transfer. The method was first validated for continuum channel flows with and without constrictions by comparing the thermal LBM results against accurate solutions obtained from analytical equations and finite element method. Finally, the capability of thermal LBM was improved by adding the effect of rarefaction and the method was used to analyze the behavior of gas flow in microchannels. The major finding of this research is that, the newly developed particle-based method described here can be used as an alternative numerical tool in order to study non-continuum effects observed in micro-electro-mechanical-systems (MEMS).