Improved Criteria for Estimating Calibration Factors for Highway Safety Manual (HSM) Applications

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) estimates roadway safety performance based on predictive models that were calibrated using national data. Calibration factors are then used to adjust these predictive models to local conditions for local applications. The HSM recommends that local calibration factors be estimated using 30 to 50 randomly selected sites that experienced at least a total of 100 crashes per year. It also recommends that the factors be updated every two to three years, preferably on an annual basis. However, these recommendations are primarily based on expert opinions rather than data-driven research findings. Furthermore, most agencies do not have data for many of the input variables recommended in the HSM. This dissertation is aimed at determining the best way to meet three major data needs affecting the estimation of calibration factors: (1) the required minimum sample sizes for different roadway facilities, (2) the required frequency for calibration factor updates, and (3) the influential variables affecting calibration factors. In this dissertation, statewide segment and intersection data were first collected for most of the HSM recommended calibration variables using a Google Maps application. In addition, eight years (2005-2012) of traffic and crash data were retrieved from existing databases from the Florida Department of Transportation. With these data, the effect of sample size criterion on calibration factor estimates was first studied using a sensitivity analysis. The results showed that the minimum sample sizes not only vary across different roadway facilities, but they are also significantly higher than those recommended in the HSM. In addition, results from paired sample t-tests showed that calibration factors in Florida need to be updated annually. To identify influential variables affecting the calibration factors for roadway segments, the variables were prioritized by combining the results from three different methods: negative binomial regression, random forests, and boosted regression trees. Only a few variables were found to explain most of the variation in the crash data. Traffic volume was consistently found to be the most influential. In addition, roadside object density, major and minor commercial driveway densities, and minor residential driveway density were also identified as influential variables.

Variables affecting the precision and accuracy of the Intoxilyzer 5000

The Intoxilyzer 5000 was tested for calibration curve linearity for ethanol vapor concentration between 0.020 and 0.400g/210L with excellent linearity. Calibration error using reference solutions outside of the allowed concentration range, response to the same ethanol reference solution at different temperatures between 34 and 38$\sp\circ$C, and its response to eleven chemicals, 10 mixtures of two at the time, and one mixture of four chemicals potentially found in human breath have been evaluated. Potential interferents were chosen on the basis of their infrared signatures and the concentration range of solutions corresponding to the non-lethal blood concentration range of various volatile organic compounds reported in the literature. The result of this study indicates that the instrument calibrates with solutions outside the allowed range up to $\pm$10% of target value. Headspace FID dual column GC analysis was used to confirm the concentrations of the solutions. Increasing the temperature of the reference solution from 34 to 38$\sp\circ$C resulted in linear increases in instrument recorded ethanol readings with an average increase of 6.25%/$\sp\circ$C. Of the eleven chemicals studied during this experiment, six, isopropanol, toluene, methyl ethyl ketone, trichloroethylene, acetaldehyde, and methanol could reasonably interfere with the test at non-lethal reported blood concentration ranges, the mixtures of those six chemicals showed linear additive results with a combined effect of as much as a 0.080g/210L reading (Florida's legal limit) without any ethanol present. ^

Diatom-based paleolimnological reconstruction of Quaternary environments in a Florida sinkhole lake

Despite lake sensitivity to climate change, few Florida paleolimnological studies have focused on changes in hydrology. Evidence from Florida vegetation histories raise questions about long-term hydrologic history of Florida lakes, and a 25-year limnological dataset revealed recent climate-driven effects on Lake Annie. The objectives of this research are (1) to use modern diatom assemblages to develop methods for reconstruction of climatic and anthropogenic change (2) to reconstruct both long-term and recent histories of Lake Annie using diatom microfossils. Paleoenvironmental reconstruction models were developed from diatom assemblages of various habitat types from modern lakes. Plankton and sediment assemblages were similar, but epiphytes were distinct, suggesting differences in sediment delivery from different parts of the lakes. Relationships between a variety of physical and chemical data and the diatoms from each habitat type were explored. Total phosphorus (TP), pH, and color were found to be the most relevant variables for reconstruction, with sediment and epiphyte assemblages having the strongest relationships to those variables, six calibration models were constructed from the combination of these habitat types and environmental variables. Reconstructions utilizing the weighted averaging models in this study may be used to directly reveal TP, color, and pH changes from a sediment record, which might be suggestive of hydrologic change as well. These variables were reconstructed from the diatom record from both a long-term (11,000 year) and short-term (100 year) record and showed an interaction between climate-driven and local land-use impacts on Lake Annie. The long-term record begins with Lake Annie as a wetland, then the lake filled to a high stand around 4000 years ago. A period of relative stability after that point was interrupted near the turn of the last century by subtle changes in diatom communities that indicate acidification. Abrupt changes in the diatom communities around 1970 AD suggest recovery from acidification, but concurrent hydrologic change intensified anthropogenic effects on the lake. Diatom evidence for alkalization and phosphorus loading correspond to changes seen in the limnological record.

Land-cover detection and landscape structure analysis in the Pachitea Basin, Peruvian Amazon

Classification procedures, including atmospheric correction satellite images as well as classification performance utilizing calibration and validation at different levels, have been investigated in the context of a coarse land-cover classification scheme for the Pachitea Basin. Two different correction methods were tested against no correction in terms of reflectance correction towards a common response for pseudo-invariant features (PIF). The accuracy of classifications derived from each of the three methods was then assessed in a discriminant analysis using crossvalidation at pixel, polygon, region, and image levels. Results indicate that only regression adjusted images using PIFs show no significant difference between images in any of the bands. A comparison of classifications at different levels suggests though that at pixel, polygon, and region levels the accuracy of the classifications do not significantly differ between corrected and uncorrected images. Spatial patterns of land-cover were analyzed in terms of colonization history, infrastructure, suitability of the land, and landownership. The actual use of the land is driven mainly by the ability to access the land and markets as is obvious in the distribution of land cover as a function of distance to rivers and roads. When considering all rivers and roads a threshold distance at which disproportional agro-pastoral land cover switches from over represented to under represented is at about 1km. Best land use suggestions seem not to affect the choice of land use. Differences in abundance of land cover between watersheds are more prevailing than differences between colonist and indigenous groups.