Beyond the Pay: Current Illicit Activities of the Armed Forces in Central America

The growth of criminal gangs and organized crime groups has created unprecedented challenges in Central America. Homicide rates are among the highest in the world, countries spend on average close to 10 percent of GDP to respond to the challenges of public insecurity, and the security forces are frequently overwhelmed and at times coopted by the criminal groups they are increasingly tasked to counter. With some 90 percent of the 700 metric tons of cocaine trafficked from South America to the United States passing through Central America, the lure of aiding illegal traffickers through provision of arms, intelligence, or simply withholding or delaying the use of force is enormous. These conditions raise the question: to what extent are militaries in Central America compromised by illicit ties to criminal groups? The study focuses on three cases: Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras. It finds that: Although illicit ties between the military and criminal groups have grown in the last decade, militaries in these countries are not yet “lost’ to criminal groups. Supplying criminal groups with light arms from military stocks is typical and on the rise, but still not common. In general the less exposed services, the navies and air forces, are the most reliable and effective ones in their roles in interdiction. Of the three countries in the study, the Honduran military is the most worrying because it is embedded in a context where civilian corruption is extremely common, state institutions are notoriously weak, and the political system remains polarized and lacks the popular legitimacy and political will needed to make necessary reforms. Overall, the armed forces in the three countries remain less compromised than civilian peers, particularly the police. However, in the worsening crime and insecurity context, there is a limited window of opportunity in which to introduce measures targeted toward the military, and such efforts can only succeed if opportunities for corruption in other sectors of the state, in particular in law enforcement and the justice system, are also addressed. Measures targeted toward the military should include: Enhanced material benefits and professional education opportunities that open doors for soldiers in promising legitimate careers once they leave military service. A clear system of rewards and punishments specifically designed to deter collusion with criminal groups. More effective securing of military arsenals. Skills and external oversight leveraged through combined operations, to build cooperation among those sectors of the military that have successful and clean records in countering criminal groups, and to expose weaker forces to effective best practices.

Development of a mathematical and computer model to assess water quality impacts of hazardous compounds from minor gasoline spills in the inter-tidal zone of the Miami River, Florida

The objective of this study was to develop a model to predict transport and fate of gasoline components of environmental concern in the Miami River by mathematically simulating the movement of dissolved benzene, toluene, xylene (BTX), and methyl-tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE) occurring from minor gasoline spills in the inter-tidal zone of the river. Computer codes were based on mathematical algorithms that acknowledge the role of advective and dispersive physical phenomena along the river and prevailing phase transformations of BTX and MTBE. Phase transformations included volatilization and settling. ^ The model used a finite-difference scheme of steady-state conditions, with a set of numerical equations that was solved by two numerical methods: Gauss-Seidel and Jacobi iterations. A numerical validation process was conducted by comparing the results from both methods with analytical and numerical reference solutions. Since similar trends were achieved after the numerical validation process, it was concluded that the computer codes algorithmically were correct. The Gauss-Seidel iteration yielded at a faster convergence rate than the Jacobi iteration. Hence, the mathematical code was selected to further develop the computer program and software. The model was then analyzed for its sensitivity. It was found that the model was very sensitive to wind speed but not to sediment settling velocity. ^ A computer software was developed with the model code embedded. The software was provided with two major user-friendly visualized forms, one to interface with the database files and the other to execute and present the graphical and tabulated results. For all predicted concentrations of BTX and MTBE, the maximum concentrations were over an order of magnitude lower than current drinking water standards. It should be pointed out, however, that smaller concentrations than the latter reported standards and values, although not harmful to humans, may be very harmful to organisms of the trophic levels of the Miami River ecosystem and associated waters. This computer model can be used for the rapid assessment and management of the effects of minor gasoline spills on inter-tidal riverine water quality. ^

Trichloroethylene fate and transport studies and biodegradation kinetics in the saturated zone

Permeable reactive barriers (PRB) are constructed from soil solid amendments to support the growth of bacteria that are capable of degrading organic contaminants. The objective of this study was to identify low-cost soil solid amendments that could retard the movement of trichloroethylene (TCE) while serving as long-lived carbon sources to foster its biodegradation in shallow groundwater through the use of a PRB. The natural amendments high in organic carbon content such as eucalyptus mulch, compost, wetland peat, organic humus were compared based on their geophysical characteristics, such as pHw, porosity and total organic carbon (TOC), and as well as TCE sorption potentials. The pHw values were within neutral range except for pine bark mulch and wetland peat. All other geophysical characteristics of the amendments showed suitability for use in a PRB. While the Freundlich model showed better fit for compost and pine bark mulch, the linear sorption model was adequate for eucalyptus mulch, wetland peat and Everglades muck within the concentration range studied (0.2-0.8 mg/L TCE). According to these results, two composts and eucalyptus mulch were selected for laboratory column experiments to evaluate their effectiveness at creating and maintaining conditions suitable for TCE anaerobic dechlorination. The columns were monitored for pH, ORP, TCE degradation, longevity of nutrients and soluble TOC to support TCE dechlorination. Native bacteria in the columns had the ability to convert TCE to DCEs; however, the inoculation with the TCE-degrading culture greatly increased the rate of biodegradation. This caused a significant increase in by-product concentration, mostly in the form of DCEs and VC followed by a slow degradation to ethylene. Of the tested amendments eucalyptus mulch was the most effective at supporting the TCE dechlorination. The experimental results of TCE sequential dechlorination took place in eucalyptus mulch and commercial compost from Savannah River Site columns were then simulated using the Hydrus-1D model. The simulations showed good fit with the experimental data. The results suggested that sorption and degradation were the dominant fate and transport mechanisms for TCE and DCEs in the column, supporting the use of these amendments in a permeable reactive barrier to remediate the TCE.

Chilling damage in a changing climate in coastal landscapes of the subtropical zone: a case study from south Florida

Freeze events significantly influence landscape structure and community composition along subtropical coastlines. This is particularly true in south Florida, where such disturbances have historically contributed to patch diversity within the mangrove forest, and have played a part in limiting its inland transgression. With projected increases in mean global temperatures, such instances are likely to become much less frequent in the region, contributing to a reduction in heterogeneity within the mangrove forest itself. To understand the process more clearly, we explored the dynamics of a Dwarf mangrove forest following two chilling events that produced freeze-like symptoms, i.e., leaf browning, desiccation, and mortality, and interpreted the resulting changes within the context of current winter temperatures and projected future scenarios. Structural effects from a 1996 chilling event were dramatic, with mortality and tissue damage concentrated among individuals comprising the Dwarf forest's low canopy. This disturbance promoted understory plant development and provided an opportunity for Laguncularia racemosa to share dominance with Rhizophora mangle. Mortality due to the less severe 2001 event was greatest in the understory, probably because recovery of the protective canopy following the earlier freeze was still incomplete. Stand dynamics were static over the same period in nearby unimpacted sites. The probability of reaching temperatures as low as those recorded at a nearby meteorological station (≤3 °C) under several warming scenarios was simulated by applying 1° incremental temperature increases to a model developed from a 42-year temperature record. According to the model, the frequency of similar chilling events decreased from once every 1.9 years at present to once every 3.4 and 32.5 years with 1 and 4 °C warming, respectively. The large decrease in the frequency of these events would eliminate an important mechanism that maintains Dwarf forest structure, and promotes compositional diversity.

Loss of electricity and refrigerated foods: avoiding the danger zone

Recent events such as Winter Storm [Hurricane] Sandy and Hurricane Katrina have demonstrated that local food supplies must last as long as possible. Current recommendations are to dispose of all refrigerated food four hours after the power is lost. The purpose of this study was to determine if it is possible to safely hold food longer than four hours without power. The results indicate that the food can be held for up to six hours if the door is not opened. If ice is added to the refrigerator, then it will take the food approximately 10 hours to reach 5°C (41°F).