Development, validation and uncertainty analysis of quantitative structure and activity relationship models for Log P of disinfection by -products

Hydrophobicity as measured by Log P is an important molecular property related to toxicity and carcinogenicity. With increasing public health concerns for the effects of Disinfection By-Products (DBPs), there are considerable benefits in developing Quantitative Structure and Activity Relationship (QSAR) models capable of accurately predicting Log P. In this research, Log P values of 173 DBP compounds in 6 functional classes were used to develop QSAR models, by applying 3 molecular descriptors, namely, Energy of the Lowest Unoccupied Molecular Orbital (ELUMO), Number of Chlorine (NCl) and Number of Carbon (NC) by Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) analysis. The QSAR models developed were validated based on the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) principles. The model Applicability Domain (AD) and mechanistic interpretation were explored. Considering the very complex nature of DBPs, the established QSAR models performed very well with respect to goodness-of-fit, robustness and predictability. The predicted values of Log P of DBPs by the QSAR models were found to be significant with a correlation coefficient R2 from 81% to 98%. The Leverage Approach by Williams Plot was applied to detect and remove outliers, consequently increasing R 2 by approximately 2% to 13% for different DBP classes. The developed QSAR models were statistically validated for their predictive power by the Leave-One-Out (LOO) and Leave-Many-Out (LMO) cross validation methods. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the variations and inherent uncertainties in the QSAR models of Log P and determine the most influential parameters in connection with Log P prediction. The developed QSAR models in this dissertation will have a broad applicability domain because the research data set covered six out of eight common DBP classes, including halogenated alkane, halogenated alkene, halogenated aromatic, halogenated aldehyde, halogenated ketone, and halogenated carboxylic acid, which have been brought to the attention of regulatory agencies in recent years. Furthermore, the QSAR models are suitable to be used for prediction of similar DBP compounds within the same applicability domain. The selection and integration of various methodologies developed in this research may also benefit future research in similar fields.

Benthic Exchange of C, N, and P Along the Estuarine Ecotone of Lower Taylor Slough, Florida (USA): Effect of Seasonal Flows and Phosphorus Availability

The southern Everglades and Florida Bay have experienced a nearly 50 % reduction in freshwater flow resulting in increased salinity and landward expansion of mangrove forest. Given the marine end-member is a natural source of P to this region, it is necessary to understand the interactions between inflows and P availability in controlling the exchange of materials across the mangrove ecotone. From 2007 to 2008, we used sediment core incubations to quantify fluxes of dissolved inorganic N and P and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in three ecotone areas (dwarf mangrove, pond, and bay). Experiments were repeated seasonally over 2 years involving P-enriched surface water as a factor. We saw consistent uptake of soluble reactive P (SRP), DOC, and nitrate + nitrite (N+N) by the soils/sediments and release of ammonium (NH4 +) from soils/sediments to the water column across all sites and seasons. P enrichment had no discernible effect on DIN or DOC flux, suggesting that rapid P uptake may have been more geochemically mediated. However, uptake of added P occurred across all sites and seasons, reflecting high uptake capacity in this carbonate system and the potential of the mangrove ecotone to sequester P as it becomes more available.