Impact of Late Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic activities on Biscayne Bay (Florida, U.S.A.): Evidence from diatoms

Shallow marine ecosystems are experiencing significant environmental alterations as a result of changing climate and increasing human activities along coasts. Intensive urbanization of the southeast Florida coast and intensification of climate change over the last few centuries changed the character of coastal ecosystems in the semi-enclosed Biscayne Bay, Florida. In order to develop management policies for the Bay, it is vital to obtain reliable scientific evidence of past ecological conditions. The long-term records of subfossil diatoms obtained from No Name Bank and Featherbed Bank in the Central Biscayne Bay, and from the Card Sound Bank in the neighboring Card Sound, were used to study the magnitude of the environmental change caused by climate variability and water management over the last ~ 600 yr. Analyses of these records revealed that the major shifts in the diatom assemblage structures at No Name Bank occurred in 1956, at Featherbed Bank in 1966, and at Card Sound Bank in 1957. Smaller magnitude shifts were also recorded at Featherbed Bank in 1893, 1942, 1974 and 1983. Most of these changes coincided with severe drought periods that developed during the cold phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), or when AMO was in warm phase and PDO was in the cold phase. Only the 1983 change coincided with an unusually wet period that developed during the warm phases of ENSO and PDO. Quantitative reconstructions of salinity using the weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) diatom-based salinity model revealed a gradual increase in salinity at the three coring locations over the last ~ 600 yr, which was primarily caused by continuously rising sea level and in the last several decades also by the reduction of the amount of freshwater inflow from the mainland. Concentration of sediment total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and total organic carbon (TOC) increased in the second half of the 20th century, which coincided with the construction of canals, landfills, marinas and water treatment plants along the western margin of Biscayne Bay. Increased magnitude and rate of the diatom assemblage restructuring in the mid- and late-1900s, suggest that large environmental changes are occurring more rapidly now than in the past.

Ecology and distribution of diatoms in Biscayne Bay, Florida (USA): Implications for bioassessment and paleoenvironmental studies

The spatial and temporal distribution of planktonic, sediment-associated and epiphytic diatoms among 58 sites in Biscayne Bay, Florida was examined in order to identify diatom taxa indicative of different salinity and water quality conditions, geographic locations and habitat types. Assessments were made in contrasting wet and dry seasons in order to develop robust assessment models for salinity and water quality for this region. We found that diatom assemblages differed between nearshore and offshore locations, especially during the wet season when salinity and nutrient gradients were steepest. In the dry season, habitat structure was primary determinant of diatom assemblage composition. Among a suite of physicochemical variables, water depth and sediment total phosphorus (STP) were most strongly associated with diatom assemblage composition in the dry season, while salinity and water total phosphorus (TP) were more important in the wet season. We used indicator species analysis (ISA) to identify taxa that were most abundant and frequent at nearshore and offshore locations, in planktonic, epiphytic and benthic habitats and in contrasting salinity and water quality regimes. Because surface water concentrations of salts, total phosphorus, nitrogen (TN) and organic carbon (TOC) are partly controlled by water management in this region, diatom-based models were produced to infer these variables in modern and retrospective assessments of management-driven changes. Weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regressions produced reliable estimates of salinity, TP, TN and TOC from diatoms (r2 = 0.92, 0.77, 0.77 and 0.71, respectively). Because of their sensitivity to salinity, nutrient and TOC concentrations diatom assemblages should be useful in developing protective nutrient criteria for estuaries and coastal waters of Florida.

Chlorine contribution to quantitative structure and activity relationship models of disinfection by -products' quantum chemical descriptors and toxicities

Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) has been applied extensively in predicting toxicity of Disinfection By-Products (DBPs) in drinking water. Among many toxicological properties, acute and chronic toxicities of DBPs have been widely used in health risk assessment of DBPs. These toxicities are correlated with molecular properties, which are usually correlated with molecular descriptors. The primary goals of this thesis are: (1) to investigate the effects of molecular descriptors (e.g., chlorine number) on molecular properties such as energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (E LUMO) via QSAR modelling and analysis; (2) to validate the models by using internal and external cross-validation techniques; (3) to quantify the model uncertainties through Taylor and Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the very important ways to predict molecular properties such as ELUMO is using QSAR analysis. In this study, number of chlorine (NCl ) and number of carbon (NC) as well as energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital (EHOMO) are used as molecular descriptors. There are typically three approaches used in QSAR model development: (1) Linear or Multi-linear Regression (MLR); (2) Partial Least Squares (PLS); and (3) Principle Component Regression (PCR). In QSAR analysis, a very critical step is model validation after QSAR models are established and before applying them to toxicity prediction. The DBPs to be studied include five chemical classes: chlorinated alkanes, alkenes, and aromatics. In addition, validated QSARs are developed to describe the toxicity of selected groups (i.e., chloro-alkane and aromatic compounds with a nitro- or cyano group) of DBP chemicals to three types of organisms (e.g., Fish, T. pyriformis, and P.pyosphoreum) based on experimental toxicity data from the literature. The results show that: (1) QSAR models to predict molecular property built by MLR, PLS or PCR can be used either to select valid data points or to eliminate outliers; (2) The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation procedure by itself is not enough to give a reliable representation of the predictive ability of the QSAR models, however, Leave-Many-Out/K-fold cross-validation and external validation can be applied together to achieve more reliable results; (3) E LUMO are shown to correlate highly with the NCl for several classes of DBPs; and (4) According to uncertainty analysis using Taylor method, the uncertainty of QSAR models is contributed mostly from NCl for all DBP classes.

Impact of Late Holocene Climate Variability and Anthropogenic Activities on Biscayne Bay (Florida, U.S.A.): Evidence From Diatoms

Shallow marine ecosystems are experiencing significant environmental alterations as a result of changing climate and increasing human activities along coasts. Intensive urbanization of the southeast Florida coast and intensification of climate change over the last few centuries changed the character of coastal ecosystems in the semi-enclosed Biscayne Bay, Florida. In order to develop management policies for the Bay, it is vital to obtain reliable scientific evidence of past ecological conditions. The long-term records of subfossil diatoms obtained from No Name Bank and Featherbed Bank in the Central Biscayne Bay, and from the Card Sound Bank in the neighboring Card Sound, were used to study the magnitude of the environmental change caused by climate variability and water management over the last ~ 600 yr. Analyses of these records revealed that the major shifts in the diatom assemblage structures at No Name Bank occurred in 1956, at Featherbed Bank in 1966, and at Card Sound Bank in 1957. Smaller magnitude shifts were also recorded at Featherbed Bank in 1893, 1942, 1974 and 1983. Most of these changes coincided with severe drought periods that developed during the cold phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), or when AMO was in warm phase and PDO was in the cold phase. Only the 1983 change coincided with an unusually wet period that developed during the warm phases of ENSO and PDO. Quantitative reconstructions of salinity using the weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) diatom-based salinity model revealed a gradual increase in salinity at the three coring locations over the last ~ 600 yr, which was primarily caused by continuously rising sea level and in the last several decades also by the reduction of the amount of freshwater inflow from the mainland. Concentration of sediment total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and total organic carbon (TOC) increased in the second half of the 20th century, which coincided with the construction of canals, landfills, marinas and water treatment plants along the western margin of Biscayne Bay. Increased magnitude and rate of the diatom assemblage restructuring in the mid- and late-1900s, suggest that large environmental changes are occurring more rapidly now than in the past.

Effect of Hydrologic Restoration on the Habitat of The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow, Annual Report of 2004-2005

The major activities in Year 3 on ‘Effect of hydrologic restoration on the habitat of the Cape Sable seaside sparrow (CSSS)’ included presentations, field work, data analysis, and report preparation. During this period, we made 4 presentations, two at the CSSS – fire planning workshops at Everglades National Park (ENP), one at the Society of Wetland Scientists’ meeting in Charleston, SC, and a fourth at the Marl Prairie/CSSS performance measure workshop at ENP. We started field work in the third week of January and continued till June 3, 2005. Early in the field season, we completed vegetation surveys along two transects, B and C (~15.1 km). During April and May, vegetation sampling was completed at 199 census sites, bringing to 608 the total number of CSSS census sites with quantitative vegetation data. We updated data sets from all three years, 2003-05, and analyzed them using cluster analysis and ordination as in previous two years. However, instead of weighted averaging, we used weighted-averaging partial least square regression (WA-PLS) model, as this method is considered an improvement over WA for inferring values of environmental variables from biological species composition. We also validated the predictive power of the WA-PLS regression model by applying it to a sub-set of 100 census sites for which hydroperiods were “known” from two sources, i.e., from elevations calculated from concurrent water depth measurements onsite and at nearby water level recorders, and from USGS digital elevation data. Additionally, we collected biomass samples at 88 census sites, and determined live and dead aboveground plant biomass. Using vegetation structure and biomass data from those sites, we developed a regression model that we used to predict aboveground biomass at all transects and census sites. Finally, biomass data was analyzed in relation to hydroperiod and fire frequency.

Peer Leaders’ Perceptions of Learning Experiences

Peer-Led Team Learning (PLTL) at Florida International University maintains a large volume of student and Peer Leader (PL) participation. Students, who participate in PLTL, on average, perform a letter grade better than their peers who do not participate in PLTL. To analyze PL perspectives on learning, a survey was conducted. The survey had a series of Likert scale statements and free response questions on learning. The nature of the questions are regarding barriers in education, individual learning strengths and weaknesses, and the perception that PLTL improved the learner’s capabilities to overcome these obstacles. Based on the survey responses, PLs perceive an improvement in the way they learn during and/or after becoming a PL. Students participating in PLTL exhibited an increase in course content retention and perceived improvement in study skills. Students in PLTL also perceived the PLTL workshop environment to be comfortable enough to address questions and misconceptions.

Chlorine Contribution to Quantitative Structure and Activity Relationship Models of Disinfection By-Products' Quantum Chemical Descriptors and Toxicities

Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) has been applied extensively in predicting toxicity of Disinfection By-Products (DBPs) in drinking water. Among many toxicological properties, acute and chronic toxicities of DBPs have been widely used in health risk assessment of DBPs. These toxicities are correlated with molecular properties, which are usually correlated with molecular descriptors. The primary goals of this thesis are: 1) to investigate the effects of molecular descriptors (e.g., chlorine number) on molecular properties such as energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (ELUMO) via QSAR modelling and analysis; 2) to validate the models by using internal and external cross-validation techniques; 3) to quantify the model uncertainties through Taylor and Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the very important ways to predict molecular properties such as ELUMO is using QSAR analysis. In this study, number of chlorine (NCl) and number of carbon (NC) as well as energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital (EHOMO) are used as molecular descriptors. There are typically three approaches used in QSAR model development: 1) Linear or Multi-linear Regression (MLR); 2) Partial Least Squares (PLS); and 3) Principle Component Regression (PCR). In QSAR analysis, a very critical step is model validation after QSAR models are established and before applying them to toxicity prediction. The DBPs to be studied include five chemical classes: chlorinated alkanes, alkenes, and aromatics. In addition, validated QSARs are developed to describe the toxicity of selected groups (i.e., chloro-alkane and aromatic compounds with a nitro- or cyano group) of DBP chemicals to three types of organisms (e.g., Fish, T. pyriformis, and P.pyosphoreum) based on experimental toxicity data from the literature. The results show that: 1) QSAR models to predict molecular property built by MLR, PLS or PCR can be used either to select valid data points or to eliminate outliers; 2) The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation procedure by itself is not enough to give a reliable representation of the predictive ability of the QSAR models, however, Leave-Many-Out/K-fold cross-validation and external validation can be applied together to achieve more reliable results; 3) ELUMO are shown to correlate highly with the NCl for several classes of DBPs; and 4) According to uncertainty analysis using Taylor method, the uncertainty of QSAR models is contributed mostly from NCl for all DBP classes.