Decision-making under extreme *uncertainty: Rethinking hazard -related perceptions and action

Understanding who evacuates and who does not has been one of the cornerstones of research on the pre-impact phase of both natural and technological hazards. Its history is rich in descriptive illustrations focusing on lists of characteristics of those who flee to safety. Early models of evacuation focused almost exclusively on the relationship between whether warnings were heard and ultimately believed and evacuation behavior. How people came to believe these warnings and even how they interpreted the warnings were not incorporated. In fact, the individual seemed almost removed from the picture with analysis focusing exclusively on external measures. ^ This study built and tested a more comprehensive model of evacuation that centers on the decision-making process, rather than decision outcomes. The model focused on three important factors that alter and shape the evacuation decision-making landscape. These factors are: individual level indicators which exist independently of the hazard itself and act as cultural lenses through which information is heard, processed and interpreted; hazard specific variables that directly relate to the specific hazard threat; and risk perception. The ultimate goal is to determine what factors influence the evacuation decision-making process. Using data collected for 1998's Hurricane Georges, logistic regression models were used to evaluate how well the three main factors help our understanding of how individuals come to their decisions to either flee to safety during a hurricane or remain in their homes. ^ The results of the logistic regression were significant emphasizing that the three broad types of factors tested in the model influence the decision making process. Conclusions drawn from the data analysis focus on how decision-making frames are different for those who can be designated “evacuators” and for those in evacuation zones. ^

Optimization of adaptive traffic signal control with transit signal priority at isolated intersections using parallel genetic algorithms

Optimization of adaptive traffic signal timing is one of the most complex problems in traffic control systems. This dissertation presents a new method that applies the parallel genetic algorithm (PGA) to optimize adaptive traffic signal control in the presence of transit signal priority (TSP). The method can optimize the phase plan, cycle length, and green splits at isolated intersections with consideration for the performance of both the transit and the general vehicles. Unlike the simple genetic algorithm (GA), PGA can provide better and faster solutions needed for real-time optimization of adaptive traffic signal control. ^ An important component in the proposed method involves the development of a microscopic delay estimation model that was designed specifically to optimize adaptive traffic signal with TSP. Macroscopic delay models such as the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) delay model are unable to accurately consider the effect of phase combination and phase sequence in delay calculations. In addition, because the number of phases and the phase sequence of adaptive traffic signal may vary from cycle to cycle, the phase splits cannot be optimized when the phase sequence is also a decision variable. A "flex-phase" concept was introduced in the proposed microscopic delay estimation model to overcome these limitations. ^ The performance of PGA was first evaluated against the simple GA. The results show that PGA achieved both faster convergence and lower delay for both under- or over-saturated traffic conditions. A VISSIM simulation testbed was then developed to evaluate the performance of the proposed PGA-based adaptive traffic signal control with TSP. The simulation results show that the PGA-based optimizer for adaptive TSP outperformed the fully actuated NEMA control in all test cases. The results also show that the PGA-based optimizer was able to produce TSP timing plans that benefit the transit vehicles while minimizing the impact of TSP on the general vehicles. The VISSIM testbed developed in this research provides a powerful tool to design and evaluate different TSP strategies under both actuated and adaptive signal control. ^

Business process quantitative analysis and optimization for service industries

The total time a customer spends in the business process system, called the customer cycle-time, is a major contributor to overall customer satisfaction. Business process analysts and designers are frequently asked to design process solutions with optimal performance. Simulation models have been very popular to quantitatively evaluate the business processes; however, simulation is time-consuming and it also requires extensive modeling experiences to develop simulation models. Moreover, simulation models neither provide recommendations nor yield optimal solutions for business process design. A queueing network model is a good analytical approach toward business process analysis and design, and can provide a useful abstraction of a business process. However, the existing queueing network models were developed based on telephone systems or applied to manufacturing processes in which machine servers dominate the system. In a business process, the servers are usually people. The characteristics of human servers should be taken into account by the queueing model, i.e. specialization and coordination. ^ The research described in this dissertation develops an open queueing network model to do a quick analysis of business processes. Additionally, optimization models are developed to provide optimal business process designs. The queueing network model extends and improves upon existing multi-class open-queueing network models (MOQN) so that the customer flow in the human-server oriented processes can be modeled. The optimization models help business process designers to find the optimal design of a business process with consideration of specialization and coordination. ^ The main findings of the research are, first, parallelization can reduce the cycle-time for those customer classes that require more than one parallel activity; however, the coordination time due to the parallelization overwhelms the savings from parallelization under the high utilization servers since the waiting time significantly increases, thus the cycle-time increases. Third, the level of industrial technology employed by a company and coordination time to mange the tasks have strongest impact on the business process design; as the level of industrial technology employed by the company is high; more division is required to improve the cycle-time; as the coordination time required is high; consolidation is required to improve the cycle-time. ^

A comprehensive portfolio construction under stochastic environment

Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. ^ A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: (a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, (b) implement large-scale optimizations, and (c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. ^ The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. ^ The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH). ^

Evaluation of contact and non-contact trapping efficiencies of human scent chemical profiles and their stabilities under different environmental conditions

Establishing an association between the scent a perpetrator left at a crime scene to the odor of the suspect of that crime is the basis for the use of human scent identification evidence in a court of law. Law enforcement agencies gather evidence through the collection of scent from the objects that a perpetrator may have handled during the execution of the criminal act. The collected scent evidence is consequently presented to the canines for identification line-up procedures with the apprehended suspects. Presently, canine scent identification is admitted as expert witness testimony, however, the accurate behavior of the dogs and the scent collection methods used are often challenged by the court system. The primary focus of this research project entailed an evaluation of contact and non-contact scent collection techniques with an emphasis on the optimization of collection materials of different fiber chemistries to evaluate the chemical odor profiles obtained using varying environment conditions to provide a better scientific understanding of human scent as a discriminative tool in the identification of suspects. The collection of hand odor from female and male subjects through both contact and non-contact sampling approaches yielded new insights into the types of VOCs collected when different materials are utilized, which had never been instrumentally performed. Furthermore, the collected scent mass was shown to be obtained in the highest amounts for both gender hand odor samples on cotton sorbent materials. Compared to non-contact sampling, the contact sampling methods yielded a higher number of volatiles, an enhancement of up to 3 times, as well as a higher scent mass than non-contact methods by more than an order of magnitude. The evaluation of the STU-100 as a non-contact methodology highlighted strong instrumental drawbacks that need to be targeted for enhanced scientific validation of current field practices. These results demonstrated that an individual's human scent components vary considerably depending on the method used to collect scent from the same body region. This study demonstrated the importance of collection medium selection as well as the collection method employed in providing a reproducible human scent sample that can be used to differentiate individuals.

Exploring thermal and mechanical properties of selected transition elements under extreme conditions: Experiments at high pressures and high temperatures

Transition metals (Ti, Zr, Hf, Mo, W, V, Nb, Ta, Pd, Pt, Cu, Ag, and Au) are essential building units of many materials and have important industrial applications. Therefore, it is important to understand their thermal and physical behavior when they are subjected to extreme conditions of pressure and temperature. This dissertation presents: • An improved experimental technique to use lasers for the measurement of thermal conductivity of materials under conditions of very high pressure (P, up to 50 GPa) and temperature (T up to 2500 K). • An experimental study of the phase relationship and physical properties of selected transition metals, which revealed new and unexpected physical effects of thermal conductivity in Zr, and Hf under high P-T. • New phase diagrams created for Hf, Ti and Zr from experimental data. • P-T dependence of the lattice parameters in α-hafnium. Contrary to prior reports, the α-ω phase transition in hafnium has a negative dT/dP slope. • New data on thermodynamic and physical properties of several transition metals and their respective high P-T phase diagrams. • First complete thermodynamic database for solid phases of 13 common transition metals was created. This database has: All the thermochemical data on these elements in their standard state (mostly available and compiled); All the equations of state (EoS) formulated from pressure-volume-temperature data (measured as a part of this study and from literature); Complete thermodynamic data for selected elements from standard to extreme conditions. The thermodynamic database provided by this study can be used with available thermodynamic software to calculate all thermophysical properties and phase diagrams at high P-T conditions. For readers who do not have access to this software, tabulated values of all thermodynamic and volume data for the 13 metals at high P-T are included in the APPENDIX. In the APPENDIX, a description of several other high-pressure studies of selected oxide systems is also included. Thermophysical properties (Cp, H, S, G) of the high P-T ω-phase of Ti, Zr and Hf were determined during the optimization of the EoS parameters and are presented in this study for the first time. These results should have important implications in understanding hexagonal-close-packed to simple-hexagonal phase transitions in transition metals and other materials.

Design optimization of modern machine drive systems for maximum fault tolerant and optimal operation

Modern electric machine drives, particularly three phase permanent magnet machine drive systems represent an indispensable part of high power density products. Such products include; hybrid electric vehicles, large propulsion systems, and automation products. Reliability and cost of these products are directly related to the reliability and cost of these systems. The compatibility of the electric machine and its drive system for optimal cost and operation has been a large challenge in industrial applications. The main objective of this dissertation is to find a design and control scheme for the best compromise between the reliability and optimality of the electric machine-drive system. The effort presented here is motivated by the need to find new techniques to connect the design and control of electric machines and drive systems. ^ A highly accurate and computationally efficient modeling process was developed to monitor the magnetic, thermal, and electrical aspects of the electric machine in its operational environments. The modeling process was also utilized in the design process in form finite element based optimization process. It was also used in hardware in the loop finite element based optimization process. The modeling process was later employed in the design of a very accurate and highly efficient physics-based customized observers that are required for the fault diagnosis as well the sensorless rotor position estimation. Two test setups with different ratings and topologies were numerically and experimentally tested to verify the effectiveness of the proposed techniques. ^ The modeling process was also employed in the real-time demagnetization control of the machine. Various real-time scenarios were successfully verified. It was shown that this process gives the potential to optimally redefine the assumptions in sizing the permanent magnets of the machine and DC bus voltage of the drive for the worst operating conditions. ^ The mathematical development and stability criteria of the physics-based modeling of the machine, design optimization, and the physics-based fault diagnosis and the physics-based sensorless technique are described in detail. ^ To investigate the performance of the developed design test-bed, software and hardware setups were constructed first. Several topologies of the permanent magnet machine were optimized inside the optimization test-bed. To investigate the performance of the developed sensorless control, a test-bed including a 0.25 (kW) surface mounted permanent magnet synchronous machine example was created. The verification of the proposed technique in a range from medium to very low speed, effectively show the intelligent design capability of the proposed system. Additionally, to investigate the performance of the developed fault diagnosis system, a test-bed including a 0.8 (kW) surface mounted permanent magnet synchronous machine example with trapezoidal back electromotive force was created. The results verify the use of the proposed technique under dynamic eccentricity, DC bus voltage variations, and harmonic loading condition make the system an ideal case for propulsion systems.^

Leakage temperature dependency aware real-time scheduling for power and thermal optimization

Catering to society's demand for high performance computing, billions of transistors are now integrated on IC chips to deliver unprecedented performances. With increasing transistor density, the power consumption/density is growing exponentially. The increasing power consumption directly translates to the high chip temperature, which not only raises the packaging/cooling costs, but also degrades the performance/reliability and life span of the computing systems. Moreover, high chip temperature also greatly increases the leakage power consumption, which is becoming more and more significant with the continuous scaling of the transistor size. As the semiconductor industry continues to evolve, power and thermal challenges have become the most critical challenges in the design of new generations of computing systems. ^ In this dissertation, we addressed the power/thermal issues from the system-level perspective. Specifically, we sought to employ real-time scheduling methods to optimize the power/thermal efficiency of the real-time computing systems, with leakage/ temperature dependency taken into consideration. In our research, we first explored the fundamental principles on how to employ dynamic voltage scaling (DVS) techniques to reduce the peak operating temperature when running a real-time application on a single core platform. We further proposed a novel real-time scheduling method, “M-Oscillations” to reduce the peak temperature when scheduling a hard real-time periodic task set. We also developed three checking methods to guarantee the feasibility of a periodic real-time schedule under peak temperature constraint. We further extended our research from single core platform to multi-core platform. We investigated the energy estimation problem on the multi-core platforms and developed a light weight and accurate method to calculate the energy consumption for a given voltage schedule on a multi-core platform. Finally, we concluded the dissertation with elaborated discussions of future extensions of our research. ^

A Comprehensive Portfolio Construction Under Stochastic Environment

Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, b) implement large-scale optimizations, and c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH).

Design Optimization of Modern Machine-drive Systems for Maximum Fault Tolerant and Optimal Operation

Modern electric machine drives, particularly three phase permanent magnet machine drive systems represent an indispensable part of high power density products. Such products include; hybrid electric vehicles, large propulsion systems, and automation products. Reliability and cost of these products are directly related to the reliability and cost of these systems. The compatibility of the electric machine and its drive system for optimal cost and operation has been a large challenge in industrial applications. The main objective of this dissertation is to find a design and control scheme for the best compromise between the reliability and optimality of the electric machine-drive system. The effort presented here is motivated by the need to find new techniques to connect the design and control of electric machines and drive systems. A highly accurate and computationally efficient modeling process was developed to monitor the magnetic, thermal, and electrical aspects of the electric machine in its operational environments. The modeling process was also utilized in the design process in form finite element based optimization process. It was also used in hardware in the loop finite element based optimization process. The modeling process was later employed in the design of a very accurate and highly efficient physics-based customized observers that are required for the fault diagnosis as well the sensorless rotor position estimation. Two test setups with different ratings and topologies were numerically and experimentally tested to verify the effectiveness of the proposed techniques. The modeling process was also employed in the real-time demagnetization control of the machine. Various real-time scenarios were successfully verified. It was shown that this process gives the potential to optimally redefine the assumptions in sizing the permanent magnets of the machine and DC bus voltage of the drive for the worst operating conditions. The mathematical development and stability criteria of the physics-based modeling of the machine, design optimization, and the physics-based fault diagnosis and the physics-based sensorless technique are described in detail. To investigate the performance of the developed design test-bed, software and hardware setups were constructed first. Several topologies of the permanent magnet machine were optimized inside the optimization test-bed. To investigate the performance of the developed sensorless control, a test-bed including a 0.25 (kW) surface mounted permanent magnet synchronous machine example was created. The verification of the proposed technique in a range from medium to very low speed, effectively show the intelligent design capability of the proposed system. Additionally, to investigate the performance of the developed fault diagnosis system, a test-bed including a 0.8 (kW) surface mounted permanent magnet synchronous machine example with trapezoidal back electromotive force was created. The results verify the use of the proposed technique under dynamic eccentricity, DC bus voltage variations, and harmonic loading condition make the system an ideal case for propulsion systems.

Leakage Temperature Dependency Aware Real-Time Scheduling for Power and Thermal Optimization

Catering to society’s demand for high performance computing, billions of transistors are now integrated on IC chips to deliver unprecedented performances. With increasing transistor density, the power consumption/density is growing exponentially. The increasing power consumption directly translates to the high chip temperature, which not only raises the packaging/cooling costs, but also degrades the performance/reliability and life span of the computing systems. Moreover, high chip temperature also greatly increases the leakage power consumption, which is becoming more and more significant with the continuous scaling of the transistor size. As the semiconductor industry continues to evolve, power and thermal challenges have become the most critical challenges in the design of new generations of computing systems. In this dissertation, we addressed the power/thermal issues from the system-level perspective. Specifically, we sought to employ real-time scheduling methods to optimize the power/thermal efficiency of the real-time computing systems, with leakage/ temperature dependency taken into consideration. In our research, we first explored the fundamental principles on how to employ dynamic voltage scaling (DVS) techniques to reduce the peak operating temperature when running a real-time application on a single core platform. We further proposed a novel real-time scheduling method, “M-Oscillations” to reduce the peak temperature when scheduling a hard real-time periodic task set. We also developed three checking methods to guarantee the feasibility of a periodic real-time schedule under peak temperature constraint. We further extended our research from single core platform to multi-core platform. We investigated the energy estimation problem on the multi-core platforms and developed a light weight and accurate method to calculate the energy consumption for a given voltage schedule on a multi-core platform. Finally, we concluded the dissertation with elaborated discussions of future extensions of our research.