Mediational effects in cognitive behavioral treatment for anxiety disorders in children and adolescents

The current study examined whether variables that have been found to influence treatment outcome serve as mediators of a child and adolescent cognitive behavioral treatment (CBT) anxiety program at multiple time points throughout the intervention. The study also examined mediating variables measured at multiple time points during treatment to determine the time lags necessary for changes in the mediator variable to translate into changes on treatment gains. Participants were 168 youth (ages 6 to 16 years; 54% males) and their mothers who presented to the Child Anxiety and Phobia Program (CAPP) at Florida International University (FIU). Overall, results indicate that the mediators at multiple time points influenced youth anxiety in a fluctuating manner, such that a decrease in skills at one given session caused changes in youth anxiety at a later session. This dynamic between the mediator and outcome may be reflective of the process of therapeutic change and suggests that skills gained from session to session took time to exert their effect on youth anxiety. The methodology employed helps to elucidate how variables mediate treatment outcome in youth anxiety disorders.

Power Study on Testing Epidemic Alternatives

Detecting change points in epidemic models has been studied by many scholars. Yao (1993) summarized five existing test statistics in the literature. Out of those test statistics, it was observed that the likelihood ratio statistic showed its standout power. However, all of the existing test statistics are based on an assumption that population variance is known, which is an unrealistic assumption in practice. To avoid assuming known population variance, a new test statistic for detecting epidemic models is studied in this thesis. The new test statistic is a parameter-free test statistic which is more powerful compared to the existing test statistics. Different sample sizes and lengths of epidemic durations are used for the power comparison purpose. Monte Carlo simulation is used to find the critical values of the new test statistic and to perform the power comparison. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation result, it can be concluded that the sample size and the length of the duration have some effect on the power of the tests. It can also be observed that the new test statistic studied in this thesis has higher power than the existing test statistics do in all of cases.

An investigation of multiple pathways of developmental intervention change

Convergence among treatment, prevention, and developmental intervention approaches has led to the recognition of the need for evaluation models and research designs that employ a full range of evaluation information to provide an empirical basis for enhancing the efficiency, efficacy, and effectiveness of prevention and positive development interventions. This study reports an investigation of a positive youth development program using an Outcome Mediation Cascade (OMC) evaluation model, an integrated model for evaluating the empirical intersection between intervention and developmental processes. The Changing Lives Program (CLP) is a community supported positive youth development intervention implemented in a practice setting as a selective/indicated program for multi-ethnic, multi-problem at risk youth in urban alternative high schools. This study used a Relational Data Analysis integration of quantitative and qualitative data analysis strategies, including the use of both fixed and free response measures and a structural equation modeling approach, to construct and evaluate the hypothesized OMC model. Findings indicated that the hypothesized model fit the data (χ2 (7) = 6.991, p = .43; RMSEA = .00; CFI = 1.00; WRMR = .459). Findings also provided preliminary evidence consistent with the hypothesis that in addition to having effects on targeted positive outcomes, PYD interventions are likely to have progressive cascading effects on untargeted problem outcomes that operate through effects on positive outcomes. Furthermore, the general pattern of findings suggested the need to use methods capable of capturing both quantitative and qualitative change in order to increase the likelihood of identifying more complete theory informed empirically supported models of developmental intervention change processes.

The multiple dimensions of political trust in democratic Argentina

Why do Argentines continue to support democracy despite distrusting political institutions and politicians? Support for democracy is high even though performance of the regime is poor. One would suspect that poor economic and political performance would open the door for military intervention given the history of Argentina. What changed? What explains variance across the multiple dimensions of political trust, such as trust in the regime, trust in political institutions, and trust in politicians? This dissertation is a case study of political culture through public opinion exploring the multiple dimensions of political trust in Argentina during the 1990s. ^ Variance across the different dimensions of political trust may be an indicator of the rise of a new type of citizens called "critical citizens." Critical citizens are citizens who criticize the regime to obtain democratic reforms but support the ideals of democracy. In established democracies, the rise of critical citizens is explained by a shift in individuals' value priorities towards postmaterialism. Postmaterialism is a cultural change in the direction of values that emphasize self-realization and individual well-being. Postmaterialism influences various social and political attitudes. ^ Because Argentina is experiencing a cultural change and a rise of critical citizens similar to more advanced societies, the theory of postmaterialism generated the main hypothesis to explain the multiple dimensions of political trust. This dissertation also tested an alternative explanation: the multiple dimensions of political trust responded instead to citizens' evaluations of performance. Ultimately, postmaterialism explained trust in the political regime and trust in the political institutions. Contrary to expectations, postmaterialism did not explain trust in the political elites or politicians. Trust in politicians was better explained by the alternative hypothesis, performance. ^ The main method of research was the statistical method supplemented with the comparative method when data were available. Two main databases were used: the World Values Surveys and the Latinobarometer. ^

Examining the process of regime change in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization: The divide between rhetoric and reality

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a product of the Cold War through which its members organized their military forces for the purpose of collective defense against the common threat of Soviet-backed aggression. Employing the terminology of regime theory, the creation of NATO can be viewed as the introduction of an international security regime. Throughout the Cold War, NATO member states preserved their commitment to mutual defense while increasingly engaging in activities aimed at overcoming the division of Europe and promoting regional stability. The end of the Cold War has served as the catalyst for a new period of regime change as the Alliance introduced elements of a collective security regime by expanding its mandate to address new security challenges and reorganizing both its political and military organizational structures. ^ This research involves an interpretive analysis of NATO's evolution applying ideal theoretical constructs associated with distinct approaches to regime analysis. The process of regime change is investigated over several periods throughout the history of the Alliance in an effort to understand the Alliance's changing commitment to collective security. This research involves a review of regime theory literature, consisting of an examination of primary source documentation, including official documents and treaties, as well as a review of numerous secondary sources. This review is organized around a typology of power-based, organization-based, and norm-based approaches to regime analysis. This dissertation argues that the process of regime change within NATO is best understood by examining factors associated with multiple theoretical constructs. Relevant factors provide insights into the practice of collective security among NATO member states within Europe, while accounting for the inability of the NATO allies to build on the experience gained within Europe to play a more central role in operations outside of this region. This research contributes to a greater understanding of the nature of international regimes and the process of regime change, while offering recommendations aimed at increasing NATO's viability as a source of greater security and more meaningful international cooperation.^

Climate Change and Regions at Risk: A Look at Central America

Climate change has been a security issue for mankind since Homo sapiens first emerged on the planet, driving him to find new and better food, water, shelter, and basic resources for survival and the advancement of civilization. Only recently, however, has the rate of climate change coupled with man’s knowledge of his own role in that change accelerated, perhaps profoundly, changing the security paradigm. If we take a ―decades‖ look at the security issue, we see competition for natural resources giving way to Cold War ideological containment and deterrence, itself giving way to non-state terrorism and extremism. While we continue to defend against these threats, we are faced with even greater security challenges that inextricably tie economic, food and human security together and where the flash points may not provide clearly discernable causes, as they will be intrinsically tied to climate change. Several scientific reports have revealed that the modest development gains that can be realized by some regions could be reversed by climate change. This means that climate change is not just a long-term environmental threat as was widely believed, but an economic and developmental disaster that is unfolding. As such, addressing climate change has become central to the development and poverty reduction by the World Bank and other financial institutions. In Latin America, poorer countries and communities, such as those found in Central America, will suffer the hardest because of weaker resilience and greater reliance on climatesensitive sectors such as agriculture. The US should attempt to deliver capability to assist these states to deal with the effects of climate change.

Managing small-scale commercial fisheries for adaptive capacity: Insights from dynamic social-ecological drivers of change in Monterey Bay

Globally, small-scale fisheries (SSFs) are driven by climate, governance, and market factors of social-ecological change, presenting both challenges and opportunities. The ability of small-scale fishermen and buyers to adapt to changing conditions allows participants to survive economic or environmental disturbances and to benefit from optimal conditions. This study presented here identifies key large-scale factors that drive SSFs in California to shift focus among targets and that dictate long-term trends in landings. We use Elinor Ostrom’s Social-Ecological System (SES) framework to apply an interdisciplinary approach when identifying potential factors and when understanding the complex dynamics of these fisheries. We analyzed the interactions among Monterey Bay SSFs over the past four decades since the passage of the Magnuson Stevens Fisheries Conservation and Management Act of 1976. In this region, the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), and market squid (Loligo opalescens) fisheries comprise a tightly linked system where shifting focus among fisheries is a key element to adaptive capacity and reduced social and ecological vulnerability. Using a cluster analysis of landings, we identified four modes from 1974 to 2012 that were dominated by squid, sardine, anchovy, or lacked any dominance, enabling us to identify external drivers attributed to a change in fishery dominance during seven distinct transition points. Overall, we show that market and climate factors drive the transitions among dominance modes. Governance phases most dictated long-term trends in landings and are best viewed as a response to changes in perceived biomass and thus a proxy for biomass. Our findings suggest that globally, small-scale fishery managers should consider enabling shifts in effort among fisheries and retaining existing flexibility, as adaptive capacity is a critical determinant for social and ecological resilience.