Chlorine contribution to quantitative structure and activity relationship models of disinfection by -products' quantum chemical descriptors and toxicities

Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) has been applied extensively in predicting toxicity of Disinfection By-Products (DBPs) in drinking water. Among many toxicological properties, acute and chronic toxicities of DBPs have been widely used in health risk assessment of DBPs. These toxicities are correlated with molecular properties, which are usually correlated with molecular descriptors. The primary goals of this thesis are: (1) to investigate the effects of molecular descriptors (e.g., chlorine number) on molecular properties such as energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (E LUMO) via QSAR modelling and analysis; (2) to validate the models by using internal and external cross-validation techniques; (3) to quantify the model uncertainties through Taylor and Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the very important ways to predict molecular properties such as ELUMO is using QSAR analysis. In this study, number of chlorine (NCl ) and number of carbon (NC) as well as energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital (EHOMO) are used as molecular descriptors. There are typically three approaches used in QSAR model development: (1) Linear or Multi-linear Regression (MLR); (2) Partial Least Squares (PLS); and (3) Principle Component Regression (PCR). In QSAR analysis, a very critical step is model validation after QSAR models are established and before applying them to toxicity prediction. The DBPs to be studied include five chemical classes: chlorinated alkanes, alkenes, and aromatics. In addition, validated QSARs are developed to describe the toxicity of selected groups (i.e., chloro-alkane and aromatic compounds with a nitro- or cyano group) of DBP chemicals to three types of organisms (e.g., Fish, T. pyriformis, and P.pyosphoreum) based on experimental toxicity data from the literature. The results show that: (1) QSAR models to predict molecular property built by MLR, PLS or PCR can be used either to select valid data points or to eliminate outliers; (2) The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation procedure by itself is not enough to give a reliable representation of the predictive ability of the QSAR models, however, Leave-Many-Out/K-fold cross-validation and external validation can be applied together to achieve more reliable results; (3) E LUMO are shown to correlate highly with the NCl for several classes of DBPs; and (4) According to uncertainty analysis using Taylor method, the uncertainty of QSAR models is contributed mostly from NCl for all DBP classes.

Chlorine Contribution to Quantitative Structure and Activity Relationship Models of Disinfection By-Products' Quantum Chemical Descriptors and Toxicities

Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) has been applied extensively in predicting toxicity of Disinfection By-Products (DBPs) in drinking water. Among many toxicological properties, acute and chronic toxicities of DBPs have been widely used in health risk assessment of DBPs. These toxicities are correlated with molecular properties, which are usually correlated with molecular descriptors. The primary goals of this thesis are: 1) to investigate the effects of molecular descriptors (e.g., chlorine number) on molecular properties such as energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (ELUMO) via QSAR modelling and analysis; 2) to validate the models by using internal and external cross-validation techniques; 3) to quantify the model uncertainties through Taylor and Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the very important ways to predict molecular properties such as ELUMO is using QSAR analysis. In this study, number of chlorine (NCl) and number of carbon (NC) as well as energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital (EHOMO) are used as molecular descriptors. There are typically three approaches used in QSAR model development: 1) Linear or Multi-linear Regression (MLR); 2) Partial Least Squares (PLS); and 3) Principle Component Regression (PCR). In QSAR analysis, a very critical step is model validation after QSAR models are established and before applying them to toxicity prediction. The DBPs to be studied include five chemical classes: chlorinated alkanes, alkenes, and aromatics. In addition, validated QSARs are developed to describe the toxicity of selected groups (i.e., chloro-alkane and aromatic compounds with a nitro- or cyano group) of DBP chemicals to three types of organisms (e.g., Fish, T. pyriformis, and P.pyosphoreum) based on experimental toxicity data from the literature. The results show that: 1) QSAR models to predict molecular property built by MLR, PLS or PCR can be used either to select valid data points or to eliminate outliers; 2) The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation procedure by itself is not enough to give a reliable representation of the predictive ability of the QSAR models, however, Leave-Many-Out/K-fold cross-validation and external validation can be applied together to achieve more reliable results; 3) ELUMO are shown to correlate highly with the NCl for several classes of DBPs; and 4) According to uncertainty analysis using Taylor method, the uncertainty of QSAR models is contributed mostly from NCl for all DBP classes.

Hybrid multi-objective optimization and hybridized self-organizing response surface method

Numerical optimization is a technique where a computer is used to explore design parameter combinations to find extremes in performance factors. In multi-objective optimization several performance factors can be optimized simultaneously. The solution to multi-objective optimization problems is not a single design, but a family of optimized designs referred to as the Pareto frontier. The Pareto frontier is a trade-off curve in the objective function space composed of solutions where performance in one objective function is traded for performance in others. A Multi-Objective Hybridized Optimizer (MOHO) was created for the purpose of solving multi-objective optimization problems by utilizing a set of constituent optimization algorithms. MOHO tracks the progress of the Pareto frontier approximation development and automatically switches amongst those constituent evolutionary optimization algorithms to speed the formation of an accurate Pareto frontier approximation. Aerodynamic shape optimization is one of the oldest applications of numerical optimization. MOHO was used to perform shape optimization on a 0.5-inch ballistic penetrator traveling at Mach number 2.5. Two objectives were simultaneously optimized: minimize aerodynamic drag and maximize penetrator volume. This problem was solved twice. The first time the problem was solved by using Modified Newton Impact Theory (MNIT) to determine the pressure drag on the penetrator. In the second solution, a Parabolized Navier-Stokes (PNS) solver that includes viscosity was used to evaluate the drag on the penetrator. The studies show the difference in the optimized penetrator shapes when viscosity is absent and present in the optimization. In modern optimization problems, objective function evaluations may require many hours on a computer cluster to perform these types of analysis. One solution is to create a response surface that models the behavior of the objective function. Once enough data about the behavior of the objective function has been collected, a response surface can be used to represent the actual objective function in the optimization process. The Hybrid Self-Organizing Response Surface Method (HYBSORSM) algorithm was developed and used to make response surfaces of objective functions. HYBSORSM was evaluated using a suite of 295 non-linear functions. These functions involve from 2 to 100 variables demonstrating robustness and accuracy of HYBSORSM.