A comprehensive study of bankruptcy prediction: Accounting ratios, market variables, and microstructure

Bankruptcy prediction has been a fruitful area of research. Univariate analysis and discriminant analysis were the first methodologies used. While they perform relatively well at correctly classifying bankrupt and nonbankrupt firms, their predictive ability has come into question over time. Univariate analysis lacks the big picture that financial distress entails. Multivariate discriminant analysis requires stringent assumptions that are violated when dealing with accounting ratios and market variables. This has led to the use of more complex models such as neural networks. While the accuracy of the predictions has improved with the use of more technical models, there is still an important point missing. Accounting ratios are the usual discriminating variables used in bankruptcy prediction. However, accounting ratios are backward-looking variables. At best, they are a current snapshot of the firm. Market variables are forward-looking variables. They are determined by discounting future outcomes. Microstructure variables, such as the bid-ask spread, also contain important information. Insiders are privy to more information that the retail investor, so if any financial distress is looming, the insiders should know before the general public. Therefore, any model in bankruptcy prediction should include market and microstructure variables. That is the focus of this dissertation. The traditional models and the newer, more technical models were tested and compared to the previous literature by employing accounting ratios, market variables, and microstructure variables. Our findings suggest that the more technical models are preferable, and that a mix of accounting and market variables are best at correctly classifying and predicting bankrupt firms. Multi-layer perceptron appears to be the most accurate model following the results. The set of best discriminating variables includes price, standard deviation of price, the bid-ask spread, net income to sale, working capital to total assets, and current liabilities to total assets.

Experimental and Analytical Methodologies for Predicting Peak Loads on Building Envelopes and Roofing Systems

The performance of building envelopes and roofing systems significantly depends on accurate knowledge of wind loads and the response of envelope components under realistic wind conditions. Wind tunnel testing is a well-established practice to determine wind loads on structures. For small structures much larger model scales are needed than for large structures, to maintain modeling accuracy and minimize Reynolds number effects. In these circumstances the ability to obtain a large enough turbulence integral scale is usually compromised by the limited dimensions of the wind tunnel meaning that it is not possible to simulate the low frequency end of the turbulence spectrum. Such flows are called flows with Partial Turbulence Simulation. In this dissertation, the test procedure and scaling requirements for tests in partial turbulence simulation are discussed. A theoretical method is proposed for including the effects of low-frequency turbulences in the post-test analysis. In this theory the turbulence spectrum is divided into two distinct statistical processes, one at high frequencies which can be simulated in the wind tunnel, and one at low frequencies which can be treated in a quasi-steady manner. The joint probability of load resulting from the two processes is derived from which full-scale equivalent peak pressure coefficients can be obtained. The efficacy of the method is proved by comparing predicted data derived from tests on large-scale models of the Silsoe Cube and Texas-Tech University buildings in Wall of Wind facility at Florida International University with the available full-scale data. For multi-layer building envelopes such as rain-screen walls, roof pavers, and vented energy efficient walls not only peak wind loads but also their spatial gradients are important. Wind permeable roof claddings like roof pavers are not well dealt with in many existing building codes and standards. Large-scale experiments were carried out to investigate the wind loading on concrete pavers including wind blow-off tests and pressure measurements. Simplified guidelines were developed for design of loose-laid roof pavers against wind uplift. The guidelines are formatted so that use can be made of the existing information in codes and standards such as ASCE 7-10 on pressure coefficients on components and cladding.

WiFi and LTE Coexistence in the Unlicensed Spectrum

Today, smart-phones have revolutionized wireless communication industry towards an era of mobile data. To cater for the ever increasing data traffic demand, it is of utmost importance to have more spectrum resources whereby sharing under-utilized spectrum bands is an effective solution. In particular, the 4G broadband Long Term Evolution (LTE) technology and its foreseen 5G successor will benefit immensely if their operation can be extended to the under-utilized unlicensed spectrum. In this thesis, first we analyze WiFi 802.11n and LTE coexistence performance in the unlicensed spectrum considering multi-layer cell layouts through system level simulations. We consider a time division duplexing (TDD)-LTE system with an FTP traffic model for performance evaluation. Simulation results show that WiFi performance is more vulnerable to LTE interference, while LTE performance is degraded only slightly. Based on the initial findings, we propose a Q-Learning based dynamic duty cycle selection technique for configuring LTE transmission gaps, so that a satisfactory throughput is maintained both for LTE and WiFi systems. Simulation results show that the proposed approach can enhance the overall capacity performance by 19% and WiFi capacity performance by 77%, hence enabling effective coexistence of LTE and WiFi systems in the unlicensed band.

Implementation of X-ray diffraction in the measurement of residual thermal strains

Microelectronic systems are multi-material, multi-layer structures, fabricated and exposed to environmental stresses over a wide range of temperatures. Thermal and residual stresses created by thermal mismatches in films and interconnections are a major cause of failure in microelectronic devices. Due to new device materials, increasing die size and the introduction of new materials for enhanced thermal management, differences in thermal expansions of various packaging materials have become exceedingly important and can no longer be neglected. X-ray diffraction is an analytical method using a monochromatic characteristic X-ray beam to characterize the crystal structure of various materials, by measuring the distances between planes in atomic crystalline lattice structures. As a material is strained, this interplanar spacing is correspondingly altered, and this microscopic strain is used to determine the macroscopic strain. This thesis investigates and describes the theory and implementation of X-ray diffraction in the measurement of residual thermal strains. The design of a computer controlled stress attachment stage fully compatible with an Anton Paar heat stage will be detailed. The stress determined by the diffraction method will be compared with bimetallic strip theory and finite element models.

Experimental and analytical methodologies for predicting peak loads on building envelopes and roofing systems

The performance of building envelopes and roofing systems significantly depends on accurate knowledge of wind loads and the response of envelope components under realistic wind conditions. Wind tunnel testing is a well-established practice to determine wind loads on structures. For small structures much larger model scales are needed than for large structures, to maintain modeling accuracy and minimize Reynolds number effects. In these circumstances the ability to obtain a large enough turbulence integral scale is usually compromised by the limited dimensions of the wind tunnel meaning that it is not possible to simulate the low frequency end of the turbulence spectrum. Such flows are called flows with Partial Turbulence Simulation.^ In this dissertation, the test procedure and scaling requirements for tests in partial turbulence simulation are discussed. A theoretical method is proposed for including the effects of low-frequency turbulences in the post-test analysis. In this theory the turbulence spectrum is divided into two distinct statistical processes, one at high frequencies which can be simulated in the wind tunnel, and one at low frequencies which can be treated in a quasi-steady manner. The joint probability of load resulting from the two processes is derived from which full-scale equivalent peak pressure coefficients can be obtained. The efficacy of the method is proved by comparing predicted data derived from tests on large-scale models of the Silsoe Cube and Texas-Tech University buildings in Wall of Wind facility at Florida International University with the available full-scale data.^ For multi-layer building envelopes such as rain-screen walls, roof pavers, and vented energy efficient walls not only peak wind loads but also their spatial gradients are important. Wind permeable roof claddings like roof pavers are not well dealt with in many existing building codes and standards. Large-scale experiments were carried out to investigate the wind loading on concrete pavers including wind blow-off tests and pressure measurements. Simplified guidelines were developed for design of loose-laid roof pavers against wind uplift. The guidelines are formatted so that use can be made of the existing information in codes and standards such as ASCE 7-10 on pressure coefficients on components and cladding.^

Adding concurrent data transfer to transport layer

In recent years, the internet has grown exponentially, and become more complex. This increased complexity potentially introduces more network-level instability. But for any end-to-end internet connection, maintaining the connection's throughput and reliability at a certain level is very important. This is because it can directly affect the connection's normal operation. Therefore, a challenging research task is to improve a network's connection performance by optimizing its throughput and reliability. This dissertation proposed an efficient and reliable transport layer protocol (called concurrent TCP (cTCP)), an extension of the current TCP protocol, to optimize end-to-end connection throughput and enhance end-to-end connection fault tolerance. The proposed cTCP protocol could aggregate multiple paths' bandwidth by supporting concurrent data transfer (CDT) on a single connection. Here concurrent data transfer was defined as the concurrent transfer of data from local hosts to foreign hosts via two or more end-to-end paths. An RTT-Based CDT mechanism, which was based on a path's RTT (Round Trip Time) to optimize CDT performance, was developed for the proposed cTCP protocol. This mechanism primarily included an RTT-Based load distribution and path management scheme, which was used to optimize connections' throughput and reliability. A congestion control and retransmission policy based on RTT was also provided. According to experiment results, under different network conditions, our RTT-Based CDT mechanism could acquire good CDT performance. Finally a CWND-Based CDT mechanism, which was based on a path's CWND (Congestion Window), to optimize CDT performance was introduced. This mechanism primarily included: a CWND-Based load allocation scheme, which assigned corresponding data to paths based on their CWND to achieve aggregate bandwidth; a CWND-Based path management, which was used to optimize connections' fault tolerance; and a congestion control and retransmission management policy, which was similar to regular TCP in its separate path handling. According to corresponding experiment results, this mechanism could acquire near-optimal CDT performance under different network conditions.