A comprehensive study of bankruptcy prediction: Accounting ratios, market variables, and microstructure

Bankruptcy prediction has been a fruitful area of research. Univariate analysis and discriminant analysis were the first methodologies used. While they perform relatively well at correctly classifying bankrupt and nonbankrupt firms, their predictive ability has come into question over time. Univariate analysis lacks the big picture that financial distress entails. Multivariate discriminant analysis requires stringent assumptions that are violated when dealing with accounting ratios and market variables. This has led to the use of more complex models such as neural networks. While the accuracy of the predictions has improved with the use of more technical models, there is still an important point missing. Accounting ratios are the usual discriminating variables used in bankruptcy prediction. However, accounting ratios are backward-looking variables. At best, they are a current snapshot of the firm. Market variables are forward-looking variables. They are determined by discounting future outcomes. Microstructure variables, such as the bid-ask spread, also contain important information. Insiders are privy to more information that the retail investor, so if any financial distress is looming, the insiders should know before the general public. Therefore, any model in bankruptcy prediction should include market and microstructure variables. That is the focus of this dissertation. The traditional models and the newer, more technical models were tested and compared to the previous literature by employing accounting ratios, market variables, and microstructure variables. Our findings suggest that the more technical models are preferable, and that a mix of accounting and market variables are best at correctly classifying and predicting bankrupt firms. Multi-layer perceptron appears to be the most accurate model following the results. The set of best discriminating variables includes price, standard deviation of price, the bid-ask spread, net income to sale, working capital to total assets, and current liabilities to total assets.

Experimental and Analytical Methodologies for Predicting Peak Loads on Building Envelopes and Roofing Systems

The performance of building envelopes and roofing systems significantly depends on accurate knowledge of wind loads and the response of envelope components under realistic wind conditions. Wind tunnel testing is a well-established practice to determine wind loads on structures. For small structures much larger model scales are needed than for large structures, to maintain modeling accuracy and minimize Reynolds number effects. In these circumstances the ability to obtain a large enough turbulence integral scale is usually compromised by the limited dimensions of the wind tunnel meaning that it is not possible to simulate the low frequency end of the turbulence spectrum. Such flows are called flows with Partial Turbulence Simulation. In this dissertation, the test procedure and scaling requirements for tests in partial turbulence simulation are discussed. A theoretical method is proposed for including the effects of low-frequency turbulences in the post-test analysis. In this theory the turbulence spectrum is divided into two distinct statistical processes, one at high frequencies which can be simulated in the wind tunnel, and one at low frequencies which can be treated in a quasi-steady manner. The joint probability of load resulting from the two processes is derived from which full-scale equivalent peak pressure coefficients can be obtained. The efficacy of the method is proved by comparing predicted data derived from tests on large-scale models of the Silsoe Cube and Texas-Tech University buildings in Wall of Wind facility at Florida International University with the available full-scale data. For multi-layer building envelopes such as rain-screen walls, roof pavers, and vented energy efficient walls not only peak wind loads but also their spatial gradients are important. Wind permeable roof claddings like roof pavers are not well dealt with in many existing building codes and standards. Large-scale experiments were carried out to investigate the wind loading on concrete pavers including wind blow-off tests and pressure measurements. Simplified guidelines were developed for design of loose-laid roof pavers against wind uplift. The guidelines are formatted so that use can be made of the existing information in codes and standards such as ASCE 7-10 on pressure coefficients on components and cladding.

WiFi and LTE Coexistence in the Unlicensed Spectrum

Today, smart-phones have revolutionized wireless communication industry towards an era of mobile data. To cater for the ever increasing data traffic demand, it is of utmost importance to have more spectrum resources whereby sharing under-utilized spectrum bands is an effective solution. In particular, the 4G broadband Long Term Evolution (LTE) technology and its foreseen 5G successor will benefit immensely if their operation can be extended to the under-utilized unlicensed spectrum. In this thesis, first we analyze WiFi 802.11n and LTE coexistence performance in the unlicensed spectrum considering multi-layer cell layouts through system level simulations. We consider a time division duplexing (TDD)-LTE system with an FTP traffic model for performance evaluation. Simulation results show that WiFi performance is more vulnerable to LTE interference, while LTE performance is degraded only slightly. Based on the initial findings, we propose a Q-Learning based dynamic duty cycle selection technique for configuring LTE transmission gaps, so that a satisfactory throughput is maintained both for LTE and WiFi systems. Simulation results show that the proposed approach can enhance the overall capacity performance by 19% and WiFi capacity performance by 77%, hence enabling effective coexistence of LTE and WiFi systems in the unlicensed band.

Implementation of X-ray diffraction in the measurement of residual thermal strains

Microelectronic systems are multi-material, multi-layer structures, fabricated and exposed to environmental stresses over a wide range of temperatures. Thermal and residual stresses created by thermal mismatches in films and interconnections are a major cause of failure in microelectronic devices. Due to new device materials, increasing die size and the introduction of new materials for enhanced thermal management, differences in thermal expansions of various packaging materials have become exceedingly important and can no longer be neglected. X-ray diffraction is an analytical method using a monochromatic characteristic X-ray beam to characterize the crystal structure of various materials, by measuring the distances between planes in atomic crystalline lattice structures. As a material is strained, this interplanar spacing is correspondingly altered, and this microscopic strain is used to determine the macroscopic strain. This thesis investigates and describes the theory and implementation of X-ray diffraction in the measurement of residual thermal strains. The design of a computer controlled stress attachment stage fully compatible with an Anton Paar heat stage will be detailed. The stress determined by the diffraction method will be compared with bimetallic strip theory and finite element models.

Experimental and analytical methodologies for predicting peak loads on building envelopes and roofing systems

The performance of building envelopes and roofing systems significantly depends on accurate knowledge of wind loads and the response of envelope components under realistic wind conditions. Wind tunnel testing is a well-established practice to determine wind loads on structures. For small structures much larger model scales are needed than for large structures, to maintain modeling accuracy and minimize Reynolds number effects. In these circumstances the ability to obtain a large enough turbulence integral scale is usually compromised by the limited dimensions of the wind tunnel meaning that it is not possible to simulate the low frequency end of the turbulence spectrum. Such flows are called flows with Partial Turbulence Simulation.^ In this dissertation, the test procedure and scaling requirements for tests in partial turbulence simulation are discussed. A theoretical method is proposed for including the effects of low-frequency turbulences in the post-test analysis. In this theory the turbulence spectrum is divided into two distinct statistical processes, one at high frequencies which can be simulated in the wind tunnel, and one at low frequencies which can be treated in a quasi-steady manner. The joint probability of load resulting from the two processes is derived from which full-scale equivalent peak pressure coefficients can be obtained. The efficacy of the method is proved by comparing predicted data derived from tests on large-scale models of the Silsoe Cube and Texas-Tech University buildings in Wall of Wind facility at Florida International University with the available full-scale data.^ For multi-layer building envelopes such as rain-screen walls, roof pavers, and vented energy efficient walls not only peak wind loads but also their spatial gradients are important. Wind permeable roof claddings like roof pavers are not well dealt with in many existing building codes and standards. Large-scale experiments were carried out to investigate the wind loading on concrete pavers including wind blow-off tests and pressure measurements. Simplified guidelines were developed for design of loose-laid roof pavers against wind uplift. The guidelines are formatted so that use can be made of the existing information in codes and standards such as ASCE 7-10 on pressure coefficients on components and cladding.^

Cooperative and adaptive medium access control in multi-hop wireless networks

Due to low cost and easy deployment, multi-hop wireless networks become a very attractive communication paradigm. However, IEEE 802.11 medium access control (MAC) protocol widely used in wireless LANs was not designed for multi-hop wireless networks. Although it can support some kinds of ad hoc network architecture, it does not function efficiently in those wireless networks with multi-hop connectivity. Therefore, our research is focused on studying the medium access control in multi-hop wireless networks. The objective is to design practical MAC layer protocols for supporting multihop wireless networks. Particularly, we try to prolong the network lifetime without degrading performances with small battery-powered devices and improve the system throughput with poor quality channels. ^ In this dissertation, we design two MAC protocols. The first one is aimed at minimizing energy-consumption without deteriorating communication activities, which provides energy efficiency, latency guarantee, adaptability and scalability in one type of multi-hop wireless networks (i.e. wireless sensor network). Methodologically, inspired by the phase transition phenomena in distributed networks, we define the wake-up probability, which maintained by each node. By using this probability, we can control the number of wireless connectivity within a local area. More specifically, we can adaptively adjust the wake-up probability based on the local network conditions to reduce energy consumption without increasing transmission latency. The second one is a cooperative MAC layer protocol for multi-hop wireless networks, which leverages multi-rate capability by cooperative transmission among multiple neighboring nodes. Moreover, for bidirectional traffic, the network throughput can be further increased by using the network coding technique. It is a very helpful complement for current rate-adaptive MAC protocols under the poor channel conditions of direct link. Finally, we give an analytical model to analyze impacts of cooperative node on the system throughput. ^

Evaluation of wind-induced internal pressure in low-rise buildings: A multi scale experimental and numerical approach

Hurricane is one of the most destructive and costly natural hazard to the built environment and its impact on low-rise buildings, particularity, is beyond acceptable. The major objective of this research was to perform a parametric evaluation of internal pressure (IP) for wind-resistant design of low-rise buildings and wind-driven natural ventilation applications. For this purpose, a multi-scale experimental, i.e. full-scale at Wall of Wind (WoW) and small-scale at Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel (BLWT), and a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approach was adopted. This provided new capability to assess wind pressures realistically on internal volumes ranging from small spaces formed between roof tiles and its deck to attic to room partitions. Effects of sudden breaching, existing dominant openings on building envelopes as well as compartmentalization of building interior on the IP were systematically investigated. Results of this research indicated: (i) for sudden breaching of dominant openings, the transient overshooting response was lower than the subsequent steady state peak IP and internal volume correction for low-wind-speed testing facilities was necessary. For example a building without volume correction experienced a response four times faster and exhibited 30–40% lower mean and peak IP; (ii) for existing openings, vent openings uniformly distributed along the roof alleviated, whereas one sided openings aggravated the IP; (iii) larger dominant openings exhibited a higher IP on the building envelope, and an off-center opening on the wall exhibited (30–40%) higher IP than center located openings; (iv) compartmentalization amplified the intensity of IP and; (v) significant underneath pressure was measured for field tiles, warranting its consideration during net pressure evaluations. The study aimed at wind driven natural ventilation indicated: (i) the IP due to cross ventilation was 1.5 to 2.5 times higher for Ainlet/Aoutlet>1 compared to cases where Ainlet/Aoutlet<1, this in effect reduced the mixing of air inside the building and hence the ventilation effectiveness; (ii) the presence of multi-room partitioning increased the pressure differential and consequently the air exchange rate. Overall good agreement was found between the observed large-scale, small-scale and CFD based IP responses. Comparisons with ASCE 7-10 consistently demonstrated that the code underestimated peak positive and suction IP.