3 resultados para local linear estimator

em Digital Commons at Florida International University


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How do local homeland security organizations respond to catastrophic events such as hurricanes and acts of terrorism? Among the most important aspects of this response are these organizations ability to adapt to the uncertain nature of these "focusing events" (Birkland 1997). They are often behind the curve, seeing response as a linear process, when in fact it is a complex, multifaceted process that requires understanding the interactions between the fiscal pressures facing local governments, the institutional pressures of working within a new regulatory framework and the political pressures of bringing together different levels of government with different perspectives and agendas. ^ This dissertation has focused on tracing the factors affecting the individuals and institutions planning, preparing, responding and recovering from natural and man-made disasters. Using social network analysis, my study analyzes the interactions between the individuals and institutions that respond to these "focusing events." In practice, it is the combination of budgetary, institutional, and political pressures or constraints interacting with each other which resembles a Complex Adaptive System (CAS). ^ To investigate this system, my study evaluates the evolution of two separate sets of organizations composed of first responders (Fire Chiefs, Emergency Management Coordinators) and community volunteers organized in the state of Florida over the last fifteen years. Using a social network analysis approach, my dissertation analyzes the interactions between Citizen Corps Councils (CCCs) and Community Emergency Response Teams (CERTs) in the state of Florida from 1996–2011. It is the pattern of interconnections that occur over time that are the focus of this study. ^ The social network analysis revealed an increase in the amount and density of connections between these organizations over the last fifteen years. The analysis also exposed the underlying patterns in these connections; that as the networks became more complex they also became more decentralized though not in any uniform manner. The present study brings to light a story of how communities have adapted to the ever changing circumstances that are sine qua non of natural and man-made disasters.^

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In the United States, the federal Empowerment Zone (EZ) program aimed to create and retain business investment in poor communities and to encourage local hiring through the use of special tax credits, relaxed regulations, social service grants, and other incentives. My dissertation explores whether the Round II Urban EZs had a beneficial impact on local communities and what factors influenced the implementation and performance of the EZs, using three modes of inquiry. First, linear regression models investigate whether the federal revitalization program had a statistically significant impact on the creation of new businesses and jobs in Round II Urban EZ communities. Second, location quotient and shift-share analysis are used to reveal the industry clusters in three EZ communities that experienced positive business and job growth. Third, qualitative analysis is employed to explore factors that influenced the implementation and performance of EZs in general, and in particular, Miami-Dade County, Florida. The results show an EZ's presence failed to have a significant influence on local business and job growth. In communities that experienced a beneficial impact from EZs, there has been a pattern of decline in manufacturing companies and increase in service-driven firms. The case study suggests that institutional factors, such as governance structure, leadership, administrative capacity, and community participation have affected the effectiveness of the program's implementation and performance.

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Multiple linear regression model plays a key role in statistical inference and it has extensive applications in business, environmental, physical and social sciences. Multicollinearity has been a considerable problem in multiple regression analysis. When the regressor variables are multicollinear, it becomes difficult to make precise statistical inferences about the regression coefficients. There are some statistical methods that can be used, which are discussed in this thesis are ridge regression, Liu, two parameter biased and LASSO estimators. Firstly, an analytical comparison on the basis of risk was made among ridge, Liu and LASSO estimators under orthonormal regression model. I found that LASSO dominates least squares, ridge and Liu estimators over a significant portion of the parameter space for large dimension. Secondly, a simulation study was conducted to compare performance of ridge, Liu and two parameter biased estimator by their mean squared error criterion. I found that two parameter biased estimator performs better than its corresponding ridge regression estimator. Overall, Liu estimator performs better than both ridge and two parameter biased estimator.