A Markov chain location-allocation meta-model for hurricane relief

An emergency is a deviation from a planned course of events that endangers people, properties, or the environment. It can be described as an unexpected event that causes economic damage, destruction, and human suffering. When a disaster happens, Emergency Managers are expected to have a response plan to most likely disaster scenarios. Unlike earthquakes and terrorist attacks, a hurricane response plan can be activated ahead of time, since a hurricane is predicted at least five days before it makes landfall. This research looked into the logistics aspects of the problem, in an attempt to develop a hurricane relief distribution network model. We addressed the problem of how to efficiently and effectively deliver basic relief goods to victims of a hurricane disaster. Specifically, where to preposition State Staging Areas (SSA), which Points of Distributions (PODs) to activate, and the allocation of commodities to each POD. Previous research has addressed several of these issues, but not with the incorporation of the random behavior of the hurricane's intensity and path. This research presents a stochastic meta-model that deals with the location of SSAs and the allocation of commodities. The novelty of the model is that it treats the strength and path of the hurricane as stochastic processes, and models them as Discrete Markov Chains. The demand is also treated as stochastic parameter because it depends on the stochastic behavior of the hurricane. However, for the meta-model, the demand is an input that is determined using Hazards United States (HAZUS), a software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) that estimates losses due to hurricanes and floods. A solution heuristic has been developed based on simulated annealing. Since the meta-model is a multi-objective problem, the heuristic is a multi-objective simulated annealing (MOSA), in which the initial solution and the cooling rate were determined via a Design of Experiments. The experiment showed that the initial temperature (T0) is irrelevant, but temperature reduction (δ) must be very gradual. Assessment of the meta-model indicates that the Markov Chains performed as well or better than forecasts made by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Tests of the MOSA showed that it provides solutions in an efficient manner. Thus, an illustrative example shows that the meta-model is practical.

A realtime Internet-based quality control application for hurricane surface wind observations

This thesis chronicles the design and implementation of a Internet/Intranet and database based application for the quality control of hurricane surface wind observations. A quality control session consists of selecting desired observation types to be viewed and determining a storm track based time window for viewing the data. All observations of the selected types are then plotted in a storm relative view for the chosen time window and geography is positioned for the storm-center time about which an objective analysis can be performed. Users then make decisions about data validity through visual nearest-neighbor comparison and inspection. The project employed an Object Oriented iterative development method from beginning to end and its implementation primarily features the Java programming language. ^

The winds of change? Exploring political effects of Hurricane Andrew

Before dawn on August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew smashed into south Florida, particularly southern Dade County, and soon become the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. Andrew's impacts quickly overwhelmed local and state emergency response capabilities and eventually required major federal assistance, including regular military units. While the social and economic impacts of Hurricane Andrew are relatively well researched, much less attention has been given to its possible political effects. ^ Focusing on incumbent officeholders at three levels (municipal, state legislative, and statewide) who stood for reelection after Hurricane Andrew, this study seeks to determine whether they experienced any political effects from Andrew. That is, this study explores the possible interaction between the famous “incumbency advantage” and an “extreme event,” in this case a natural disaster. The specific foci were (1) campaigns and campaigning (a research process that included 43 personal interviews), and (2) election results before and after the event. ^ Given well-documented response problems, the working hypothesis was that incumbents experienced largely negative political fallout from the disaster. The null hypothesis was that incumbents saw no net political effects, but the reverse hypothesis was also considered: incumbents benefited politically from the event. ^ In the end, this study found that although the election process was physically disrupted, especially in south Dade County, the disaster largely reinforced the incumbency advantage. More specifically, the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew allowed most incumbent officeholders to (1) enhance constituency service, (2) associate themselves with the flow of external assistance, (3) achieve major personal visibility and media coverage, and yet (4) appear non-political or at least above normal politics. Overall, this combination allowed incumbents to very effectively “campaign without campaigning,” a point borne out by post-Andrew election results. ^

A framework for automatic feature extraction from airborne light detection and ranging data

Recent advances in airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) technology allow rapid and inexpensive measurements of topography over large areas. Airborne LIDAR systems usually return a 3-dimensional cloud of point measurements from reflective objects scanned by the laser beneath the flight path. This technology is becoming a primary method for extracting information of different kinds of geometrical objects, such as high-resolution digital terrain models (DTMs), buildings and trees, etc. In the past decade, LIDAR gets more and more interest from researchers in the field of remote sensing and GIS. Compared to the traditional data sources, such as aerial photography and satellite images, LIDAR measurements are not influenced by sun shadow and relief displacement. However, voluminous data pose a new challenge for automated extraction the geometrical information from LIDAR measurements because many raster image processing techniques cannot be directly applied to irregularly spaced LIDAR points. ^ In this dissertation, a framework is proposed to filter out information about different kinds of geometrical objects, such as terrain and buildings from LIDAR automatically. They are essential to numerous applications such as flood modeling, landslide prediction and hurricane animation. The framework consists of several intuitive algorithms. Firstly, a progressive morphological filter was developed to detect non-ground LIDAR measurements. By gradually increasing the window size and elevation difference threshold of the filter, the measurements of vehicles, vegetation, and buildings are removed, while ground data are preserved. Then, building measurements are identified from no-ground measurements using a region growing algorithm based on the plane-fitting technique. Raw footprints for segmented building measurements are derived by connecting boundary points and are further simplified and adjusted by several proposed operations to remove noise, which is caused by irregularly spaced LIDAR measurements. To reconstruct 3D building models, the raw 2D topology of each building is first extracted and then further adjusted. Since the adjusting operations for simple building models do not work well on 2D topology, 2D snake algorithm is proposed to adjust 2D topology. The 2D snake algorithm consists of newly defined energy functions for topology adjusting and a linear algorithm to find the minimal energy value of 2D snake problems. Data sets from urbanized areas including large institutional, commercial, and small residential buildings were employed to test the proposed framework. The results demonstrated that the proposed framework achieves a very good performance. ^

Aerodynamic load characteristics evaluation and tri-axial performance testing on fiber reinforced polymer connections and metal fasteners to promote hurricane damage mitigation

Damages during extreme wind events highlight the weaknesses of mechanical fasteners at the roof-to-wall connections in residential timber frame buildings. The allowable capacity of the metal fasteners is based on results of unidirectional component testing that do not simulate realistic tri-axial aerodynamic loading effects. The first objective of this research was to simulate hurricane effects and study hurricane-structure interaction at full-scale, facilitating better understanding of the combined impacts of wind, rain, and debris on inter-component connections at spatial and temporal scales. The second objective was to evaluate the performance of a non-intrusive roof-to-wall connection system using fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) materials and compare its load capacity to the capacity of an existing metal fastener under simulated aerodynamic loads. ^ The Wall of Wind (WoW) testing performed using FRP connections on a one-story gable-roof timber structure instrumented with a variety of sensors, was used to create a database on aerodynamic and aero-hydrodynamic loading on roof-to-wall connections tested under several parameters: angles of attack, wind-turbulence content, internal pressure conditions, with and without effects of rain. Based on the aerodynamic loading results obtained from WoW tests, sets of three force components (tri-axial mean loads) were combined into a series of resultant mean forces, which were used to test the FRP and metal connections in the structures laboratory up to failure. A new component testing system and test protocol were developed for testing fasteners under simulated triaxial loading as opposed to uni-axial loading. The tri-axial and uni-axial test results were compared for hurricane clips. Also, comparison was made between tri-axial load capacity of FRP and metal connections. ^ The research findings demonstrate that the FRP connection is a viable option for use in timber roof-to-wall connection system. Findings also confirm that current testing methods of mechanical fasteners tend to overestimate the actual load capacities of a connector. Additionally, the research also contributes to the development a new testing protocol for fasteners using tri-axial simultaneous loads based on the aerodynamic database obtained from the WoW testing. ^

Predicting hurricane evacuation decisions: When, how many, and how far

Traffic from major hurricane evacuations is known to cause severe gridlocks on evacuation routes. Better prediction of the expected amount of evacuation traffic is needed to improve the decision-making process for the required evacuation routes and possible deployment of special traffic operations, such as contraflow. The objective of this dissertation is to develop prediction models to predict the number of daily trips and the evacuation distance during a hurricane evacuation. ^ Two data sets from the surveys of the evacuees from Hurricanes Katrina and Ivan were used in the models' development. The data sets included detailed information on the evacuees, including their evacuation days, evacuation distance, distance to the hurricane location, and their associated socioeconomic characteristics, including gender, age, race, household size, rental status, income, and education level. ^ Three prediction models were developed. The evacuation trip and rate models were developed using logistic regression. Together, they were used to predict the number of daily trips generated before hurricane landfall. These daily predictions allowed for more detailed planning over the traditional models, which predicted the total number of trips generated from an entire evacuation. A third model developed attempted to predict the evacuation distance using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), which was able to account for the spatial variations found among the different evacuation areas, in terms of impacts from the model predictors. All three models were developed using the survey data set from Hurricane Katrina and then evaluated using the survey data set from Hurricane Ivan. ^ All of the models developed provided logical results. The logistic models showed that larger households with people under age six were more likely to evacuate than smaller households. The GWR-based evacuation distance model showed that the household with children under age six, income, and proximity of household to hurricane path, all had an impact on the evacuation distances. While the models were found to provide logical results, it was recognized that they were calibrated and evaluated with relatively limited survey data. The models can be refined with additional data from future hurricane surveys, including additional variables, such as the time of day of the evacuation. ^

Hurricane disturbance and recovery of energy balance, CO2 fluxes and canopy structure in a mangrove forest of the Florida Everglades

Eddy covariance (EC) estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes and energy balance are examined to investigate the functional responses of a mature mangrove forest to a disturbance generated by Hurricane Wilma on October 24, 2005 in the Florida Everglades. At the EC site, high winds from the hurricane caused nearly 100% defoliation in the upper canopy and widespread tree mortality. Soil temperatures down to -50 cm increased, and air temperature lapse rates within the forest canopy switched from statically stable to statically unstable conditions following the disturbance. Unstable conditions allowed more efficient transport of water vapor and CO2 from the surface up to the upper canopy layer. Significant increases in latent heat fluxes (LE) and nighttime net ecosystem exchange (NEE) were also observed and sensible heat fluxes (H) as a proportion of net radiation decreased significantly in response to the disturbance. Many of these impacts persisted through much of the study period through 2009. However, local albedo and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer) data (the Enhanced Vegetation Index) indicated a substantial proportion of active leaf area recovered before the EC measurements began 1 year after the storm. Observed changes in the vertical distribution and the degree of clumping in newly emerged leaves may have affected the energy balance. Direct comparisons of daytime NEE values from before the storm and after our measurements resumed did not show substantial or consistent differences that could be attributed to the disturbance. Regression analyses on seasonal time scales were required to differentiate the storm's impact on monthly average daytime NEE from the changes caused by interannual variability in other environmental drivers. The effects of the storm were apparent on annual time scales, and CO2 uptake remained approximately 250 g C m-2 yr-1 lower in 2009 compared to the average annual values measured in 2004-2005. Dry season CO2 uptake was relatively more affected by the disturbance than wet season values. Complex leaf regeneration dynamics on damaged trees during ecosystem recovery are hypothesized to lead to the variable dry versus wet season impacts on daytime NEE. In contrast, nighttime CO2 release (i.e., nighttime respiration) was consistently and significantly greater, possibly as a result of the enhanced decomposition of litter and coarse woody debris generated by the storm, and this effect was most apparent in the wet seasons compared to the dry seasons. The largest pre- and post-storm differences in NEE coincided roughly with the delayed peak in cumulative mortality of stems in 2007-2008. Across the hurricane-impacted region, cumulative tree mortality rates were also closely correlated with declines in peat surface elevation. Mangrove forest-atmosphere interactions are interpreted with respect to the damage and recovery of stand dynamics and soil accretion processes following the hurricane.

Sediment and Nutrient Deposition Associated with Hurricane Wilma in Mangroves of the Florida Coastal Everglades

The distribution of mangrove biomass and forest structure along Shark River estuary in the Florida Coastal Everglades (FCE) has been correlated with elevated total phosphorus concentration in soils thought to be associated with storm events. The passage of Hurricane Wilma across Shark River estuary in 2005 allowed us to quantify sediment deposition and nutrient inputs in FCE mangrove forests associated with this storm event and to evaluate whether these pulsing events are sufficient to regulate nutrient biogeochemistry in mangrove forests of south Florida. We sampled the spatial pattern of sediment deposits and their chemical properties in mangrove forests along FCE sites in December 2005 and October 2006. The thickness (0.5 to 4.5 cm) of hurricane sediment deposits decreased with distance inland at each site. Bulk density, organic matter content, total nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations, and inorganic and organic P pools of hurricane sediment deposits differed from surface (0–10 cm) mangrove soils at each site. Vertical accretion resulting from this hurricane event was eight to 17 times greater than the annual accretion rate (0.30± 0.03 cm year−1) averaged over the last 50 years. Total P inputs from storm-derived sediments were equivalent to twice the average surface soil nutrient P density (0.19 mg cm−3). In contrast, total N inputs contributed 0.8 times the average soil nutrient N density (2.8 mg cm−3). Allochthonous mineral inputs from Hurricane Wilma represent a significant source of sediment to soil vertical accretion rates and nutrient resources in mangroves of southwestern Everglades. The gradient in total P deposition to mangrove soils from west to east direction across the FCE associated with this storm event is particularly significant to forest development due to the P-limited condition of this carbonate ecosystem. This source of P may be an important adaptation of mangrove forests in the Caribbean region to projected impacts of sea-level rise.

The Impact of Hurricane Georges on Soft-Bottom, Back Reef Communitites: Site- and Species-Specific Effects in South Florida Seagrass Beds

Seagrass beds are the dominant benthic marine communities in the back reef environment of the Florida Keys. At a network of 30 permanent monitoring stations in this back reef environment, the seagrass Thalassia testudinum Banks & Soland. ex Koenig was the most common marine macrophyte, but the seagrasses Syringodium fi liforme Kuetz., and Halodule wrightii Aschers., as well as many taxa of macroalgae, were also commonly encountered. The calcareous green macroalgae, especially Halimeda spp. and Penicillus spp., were the most common macroalgae. The passage of Hurricane Georges on September 25, 1998 caused an immediate loss of 3% of the density of T. testudinum, compared to 19% of the S. fi liforme and 24% of the calcareous green algae. The seagrass beds at three of the stations were completely obliterated by the storm. Stations that had little to moderate sediment deposition recovered from the storm within 1 yr, while the station buried by 50 cm of sediment and the two stations that experienced substantial erosion had recovered very little during the 3 yrs after the storm. Early colonizers to these severely disturbed sites were calcareous green algae. Hurricanes may increase benthic macrophyte diversity by creating disturbed patches with the landscape, but moderate storm disturbance may actually reduce macrophyte diversity by removing the early successional species from mixed-species seagrass beds.

Hurricane Wilma’s impact on overall soil elevation and zones within the soil profile in a mangrove forest

Soil elevation affects tidal inundation period, inundation frequency, and overall hydroperiod, all of which are important ecological factors affecting species recruitment, composition, and survival in wetlands. Hurricanes can dramatically affect a site’s soil elevation. We assessed the impact of Hurricane Wilma (2005) on soil elevation at a mangrove forest location along the Shark River in Everglades National Park, Florida, USA. Using multiple depth surface elevation tables (SETs) and marker horizons we measured soil accretion, erosion, and soil elevation. We partitioned the effect of Hurricane Wilma’s storm deposit into four constituent soil zones: surface (accretion) zone, shallow zone (0–0.35 m), middle zone (0.35–4 m), and deep zone (4–6 m). We report expansion and contraction of each soil zone. Hurricane Wilma deposited 37.0 (±3.0 SE) mm of material; however, the absolute soil elevation change was + 42.8 mm due to expansion in the shallow soil zone. One year post-hurricane, the soil profile had lost 10.0 mm in soil elevation, with 8.5 mm of the loss due to erosion. The remaining soil elevation loss was due to compaction from shallow subsidence. We found prolific growth of new fine rootlets (209 ± 34 SE g m−2) in the storm deposited material suggesting that deposits may become more stable in the near future (i.e., erosion rate will decrease). Surficial erosion and belowground processes both played an important role in determining the overall soil elevation. Expansion and contraction in the shallow soil zone may be due to hydrology, and in the middle and bottom soil zones due to shallow subsidence. Findings thus far indicate that soil elevation has made substantial gains compared to site specific relative sea-level rise, but data trends suggest that belowground processes, which differ by soil zone, may come to dominate the long term ecological impact of storm deposit.

Managua Relief

Bob del Toro, Dianne Haley and Others with Toys for Managuan Relief. On December 23, 12:29 a.m. local time in Managua, Nicaragua, a magnitude 6.2 earthquake occurred. The earth caused widespread damage among Managua, the capital city. In Managua, 5,000 residents were killed, 20,000 were injured and over 250,000 were left homeless. In Miami, residents and relief organizations focused on helping children. Wife of General Arturo Somoza pleaded on efforts on gathering sporting goods and toys for Managua’s young people. Relief committees purchased 230 dozen balls – basketball, rubber, and volley, soccer, and others. Nearly $500 came from students in Hialeah High School. Jump ropes and jacks were donated from a sorority at Florida International University. Arrangements were made to bring 44,000 pounds of baby formula and canned meat and 13,000 pounds of medicine. Many of Miami’s corporations, associations, and residents contributed to the Managuan Relief effort. Source: The Miami News, March 19, 1973 by Lynn Feigenbaum 887-3400. april 30, 1973. Cutlines: More than 350 dozens of various balls, skate boards and games were recently purchased by the Student Governance Committee of Florida International University for the young people of Managua, Nicaragua who not only do not have enough toys but are unable to attend schools which are closed. Left to right are, Bob del Toro, Dianne Haley, Chairman of the Student Governance Committee, Hialeah Councilman Jack Weaver of the Hialeah-Managua Sister City Committee, Barbara O'Nan and Margaret Klein.

Managua Relief

On December 23, 12:29 a.m. local time in Managua, Nicaragua, a magnitude 6.2 earthquake occurred. The earth caused widespread damage among Managua, the capital city. In Managua, 5,000 residents were killed, 20,000 were injured and over 250,000 were left homeless. In Miami, residents and relief organizations focused on helping children. Wife of General Arturo Somoza pleaded on efforts on gathering sporting goods and toys for Managua’s young people. Relief committees purchased 230 dozen balls – basketball, rubber, and volley, soccer, and others. Nearly $500 came from students in Hialeah High School. Jump ropes and jacks were donated from a sorority at Florida International University. Arrangements were made to bring 44,000 pounds of baby formula and canned meat and 13,000 pounds of medicine. Many of Miami’s corporations, associations, and residents contributed to the Managuan Relief effort. Source: The Miami News, March 19, 1973 by Lynn Feigenbaum From: City of Hialeah Publicity Bureu. 401 1/2 East 1st Ave. Hialeah, Fla. 887-3400. april 30, 1973. Cutlines: Florida International University students recently raised more than $ 1,000 for more than 300 dozens toys and balls for the youngsters of Managua, Nicaragua. With the balls above are shown student Committee members and oficials of the Hialeah-Managua Sister City Committee, left to rigth: Bob del Toro, Sister City Committe president Raymond R. Schultz, Student Governance Committee chairman Dianne Haley and Hialeah City councilman Jack Weaver.

Managua Relief

On December 23, 12:29 a.m. local time in Managua, Nicaragua, a magnitude 6.2 earthquake occurred. The earth caused widespread damage among Managua, the capital city. In Managua, 5,000 residents were killed, 20,000 were injured and over 250,000 were left homeless. In Miami, residents and relief organizations focused on helping children. Wife of General Arturo Somoza pleaded on efforts on gathering sporting goods and toys for Managua’s young people. Relief committees purchased 230 dozen balls – basketball, rubber, and volley, soccer, and others. Nearly $500 came from students in Hialeah High School. Jump ropes and jacks were donated from a sorority at Florida International University. Arrangements by organizations were made to bring 44,000 pounds of baby formula and canned meat and 13,000 pounds of medicine. Many of Miami’s corporations, associations, and residents contributed to the Managuan Relief effort. Source: The Miami News, March 19, 1973 by Lynn Feigenbaum From: City of Hialeah Publicity Bureu. 401 1/2 East 1st Ave. Hialeah, Fla. 887-3400. april 30, 1973. Cutlines: Skate boards, paddle balls and flying saucers were among the big shipment of toys which was recently dispatched to Managua, Nicaragua by students of Florida International University through the Hialeah-Managua Sister Committee. Examining the toys above are, left to right: Margaret Klein, Hialeah councilman Jack Weaver and Barbara O'Nan.

Managua Relief

On December 23, 12:29 a.m. local time in Managua, Nicaragua, a magnitude 6.2 earthquake occurred. The earth caused widespread damage among Managua, the capital city. In Managua, 5,000 residents were killed, 20,000 were injured and over 250,000 were left homeless. In Miami, residents and relief organizations focused on helping children. Wife of General Arturo Somoza pleaded on efforts on gathering sporting goods and toys for Managua’s young people. Relief committees purchased 230 dozen balls – basketball, rubber, and volley, soccer, and others. Nearly $500 came from students in Hialeah High School. Jump ropes and jacks were donated from a sorority at Florida International University. Arrangements were made to bring 44,000 pounds of baby formula and canned meat and 13,000 pounds of medicine. Many of Miami’s corporations, associations, and residents contributed to the Managuan Relief effort. Source: The Miami News, March 19, 1973 by Lynn Feigenbaum