Subtroprical wetland fish assemblages and changing salinity regimes: Implications for everglades restoration

During the 1960s, water management practices resulted in the conversion of the wetlands that fringe northeastern Florida Bay (USA) from freshwater/oligohaline herbaceous marshes to dwarf red mangrove forests. Coincident with this conversion were several ecological changes to Florida Bay’s fauna, including reductions in the abundances of top trophic-level consumers: piscivorous fishes, alligators, crocodiles, and wading birds. Because these taxa rely on a common forage base of small demersal fishes, food stress has been implicated as playing a role in their respective declines. In the present study, we monitored the demersal fishes seasonally at six sites over an 8-year time period. During monitoring, extremely high rainfall conditions occurred over a 3.5-year period leading to salinity regimes that can be viewed as “windows” to the area’s natural past and future restored states. In this paper, we: (1) examine the changes in fish communities over the 8-year study period and relate them to measured changes in salinity; (2) make comparisons among marine, brackish and freshwater demersal fish communities in terms of species composition, density, and biomass; and (3) discuss several implications of our findings in light of the intended and unintended water management changes that are planned or underway as part of Everglades restoration. Results suggest the reduction in freshwater flow to Florida Bay over the last several decades has reduced demersal fish populations, and thus prey availability for apex consumers in the coastal wetlands compared to the pre-drainage inferred standard. Furthermore, greater discharge of freshwater toward Florida Bay may result in the re-establishment of pre-1960s fauna, including a more robust demersal-fish community that should prompt increases in populations of several important predatory species.

Essays on city size distribution and real estate bubbles

This is a dissertation about urban systems; within this broad subject I tackle three issues, one that focuses on an observed inter-city relationship and two that focus on an intra-city phenomenon. In Chapter II I adapt a model of random emergence of economic opportunities from the firm growth literature to the urban dynamics situation and present several predictions for urban system dynamics. One of these predictions is that the older the city the larger and more diversified it is going to be on average, which I proceed to verify empirically using two distinct datasets. In Chapter III I analyze the Residential Real Estate Bubble that took place in Miami-Dade County from 1999 to 2006. I adopt a Spatial-Economic model developed for the Paris Bubble episode of 1984–1993 and formulate an innovative test of the results in terms of speculative intensity on the basis of proxies of investor activity available in my dataset. My results support the idea that the best or more expensive areas are also where the greatest speculative activity takes place and where the rapid increase in prices begins. The most significant departure from previous studies that emerges in my results is the absence of a wider gap between high priced areas and low priced areas in the peak year. I develop a measure of dispersion in value among areas and contrast the Miami-Dade and Paris episodes. In Chapter IV I analyze the impact on tax equity of a Florida tax-limiting legislation known as Save Our Homes. I first compare homesteaded and non-homesteaded properties, and second, look within the subset of homesteaded properties. I find that non-homesteaded properties increase their share of taxes paid relative to homesteaded properties during an up market, but that this is reversed during a down market. For the subset of homesteaded properties I find that the impact on tax equity of SOH will depend on differential growth rates among higher and lower valued homes, but during times of rapid home price appreciation, in a scenario of no differential growth rates in property values, SOH increases progressivity relative to the prior system.

Variation and Uncertainty in Evaporation from a Subtropical Estuary: Florida Bay

Variation and uncertainty in estimated evaporation was determined over time and between two locations in Florida Bay, a subtropical estuary. Meteorological data were collected from September 2001 to August 2002 at Rabbit Key and Butternut Key within the Bay. Evaporation was estimated using both vapor flux and energy budget methods. The results were placed into a long-term context using 33 years of temperature and rainfall data collected in south Florida. Evaporation also was estimated from this long-term data using an empirical formula relating evaporation to clear sky solar radiation and air temperature. Evaporation estimates for the 12-mo period ranged from 144 to 175 cm yr21, depending on location and method, with an average of 163 cm yr21 (6 9%). Monthly values ranged from 9.2 to 18.5 cm, with the highest value observed in May, corresponding with the maximum in measured net radiation. Uncertainty estimates derived from measurement errors in the data were as much as 10%, and were large enough to obscure differences in evaporation between the two sites. Differences among all estimates for any month indicate the overall uncertainty in monthly evaporation, and ranged from 9% to 26%. Over a 33-yr period (1970–2002), estimated annual evaporation from Florida Bay ranged from 148 to 181 cm yr21, with an average of 166 cm yr21. Rainfall was consistently lower in Florida Bay than evaporation, with a long-term average of 106 cm yr21. Rainfall considered alone was uncorrelated with evaporation at both monthly and annual time scales; when the seasonal variation in clear sky radiation was also taken into account both net radiation and evaporation were significantly suppressed in months with high rainfall.

Application of excitation emission matrix fluorescence monitoring in the assessment of spatial and seasonal drivers of dissolved organic matter composition: Sources and physical disturbance controls

The environmental dynamics of dissolved organic matter (DOM) were characterized for a shallow, subtropical, seagrass-dominated estuarine bay, namely Florida Bay, USA. Large spatial and seasonal variations in DOM quantity and quality were assessed using dissolved organic C (DOC) measurements and spectrophotometric properties including excitation emission matrix (EEM) fluorescence with parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC). Surface water samples were collected monthly for 2 years across the bay. DOM characteristics were statistically different across the bay, and the bay was spatially characterized into four basins based on chemical characteristics of DOM as determined by EEM-PARAFAC. Differences between zones were explained based on hydrology, geomorphology, and primary productivity of the local seagrass community. In addition, potential disturbance effects from a very active hurricane season were identified. Although the overall seasonal patterns of DOM variations were not significantly affected on a bay-wide scale by this disturbance, enhanced freshwater delivery and associated P and DOM inputs (both quantity and quality) were suggested as potential drivers for the appearance of algal blooms in high impact areas. The application of EEM-PARAFAC proved to be ideally suited for studies requiring high sample throughput methods to assess spatial and temporal ecological drivers and to determine disturbance-induced impacts in aquatic ecosystems.

Evaluation of non-contact sampling and detection of explosives using receiver operating characteristic curves

The growing need for fast sampling of explosives in high throughput areas has increased the demand for improved technology for the trace detection of illicit compounds. Detection of the volatiles associated with the presence of the illicit compounds offer a different approach for sensitive trace detection of these compounds without increasing the false positive alarm rate. This study evaluated the performance of non-contact sampling and detection systems using statistical analysis through the construction of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves in real-world scenarios for the detection of volatiles in the headspace of smokeless powder, used as the model system for generalizing explosives detection. A novel sorbent coated disk coined planar solid phase microextraction (PSPME) was previously used for rapid, non-contact sampling of the headspace containers. The limits of detection for the PSPME coupled to IMS detection was determined to be 0.5-24 ng for vapor sampling of volatile chemical compounds associated with illicit compounds and demonstrated an extraction efficiency of three times greater than other commercially available substrates, retaining >50% of the analyte after 30 minutes sampling of an analyte spike in comparison to a non-detect for the unmodified filters. Both static and dynamic PSPME sampling was used coupled with two ion mobility spectrometer (IMS) detection systems in which 10-500 mg quantities of smokeless powders were detected within 5-10 minutes of static sampling and 1 minute of dynamic sampling time in 1-45 L closed systems, resulting in faster sampling and analysis times in comparison to conventional solid phase microextraction-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (SPME-GC-MS) analysis. Similar real-world scenarios were sampled in low and high clutter environments with zero false positive rates. Excellent PSPME-IMS detection of the volatile analytes were visualized from the ROC curves, resulting with areas under the curves (AUC) of 0.85-1.0 and 0.81-1.0 for portable and bench-top IMS systems, respectively. Construction of ROC curves were also developed for SPME-GC-MS resulting with AUC of 0.95-1.0, comparable with PSPME-IMS detection. The PSPME-IMS technique provides less false positive results for non-contact vapor sampling, cutting the cost and providing an effective sampling and detection needed in high-throughput scenarios, resulting in similar performance in comparison to well-established techniques with the added advantage of fast detection in the field.