An evaluation of exchange rate policy and economic adjustment in Nicaragua, 1993--1995

Since the late 1970's, but particularly since the mid-1980s, the economy of Nicaragua has had persistent and large macroeconomic imbalances, while GDP per-capita has declined to 1950s' levels. By the second half of the 1990s, huge fiscal deficits and a reduction of foreign financing resulted in record hyperinflation. The Sandinista government's (1979–1990) harsh stabilization program in 1988–89 had only modest and short-lived success. It was doomed by their inability to lower the public sector deficit due to the war, plus diminishing financial support from abroad. Hyperinflation stopped only after their 1990 electoral defeat ended the war and massive aid began to flow in. Five years later, macroeconomic stability is still very fragile. A sluggish recovery of export agriculture plus import liberalization, have impeded a reduction of huge trade and current account deficits. Facing the prospects of diminished aid flows, the government's strategy has hinged on the achievement of a real devaluation through a crawling-peg adjustment of the nominal rate. However, at the end of 1995 the situation of the external accounts was still critical, and the modest progress achieved was attributable to cyclical terms-of-trade improvement and changes in the political outlook of agricultural producers. Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model and a Social Accounting Matrix constructed for this dissertation, the importance of structural rigidities in production and demand in explaining such outcome is shown. It is shown that under the plausible structural assumptions incorporated in the model, the role of devaluation in the adjustment process is restricted by structural rigidities. Moreover, contrary to the premise of the orthodox economic thinking behind the economic program, it is the contractionary effect of devaluation more than its expenditure-switching effects that provide the basis for is use in solving the external sector's problems. A fixed nominal exchange rate is found to lead to adverse results. The broader conclusion that emerges from the study is that a new social compact and a rapid increase in infrastructure spending plus fiscal support for the traditional agro-export activities is at the center of a successful adjustment towards external viability in Nicaragua. ^

Determinants of local government pension funding: Empirical evidence from Florida

The financial community is well aware that continued underfunding of state and local government pension plans poses many public policy and fiduciary management concerns. However, a well-defined theoretical rationale has not been developed to explain why and how public sector pension plans underfund. This study uses three methods: a survey of national pension experts, an incomplete covariance panel method, and field interviews.^ A survey of national public sector pension experts was conducted to provide a conceptual framework by which underfunding could be evaluated. Experts suggest that plan design, fiscal stress, and political culture factors impact underfunding. However, experts do not agree with previous research findings that unions actively pursue underfunding to secure current wage increases.^ Within the conceptual framework and determinants identified by experts, several empirical regularities are documented for the first time. Analysis of 173 local government pension plans, observed from 1987 to 1992, was conducted. Findings indicate that underfunding occurs in plans that have lower retirement ages, increased costs due to benefit enhancements, when the sponsor faces current year operating deficits, or when a local government relies heavily on inelastic revenue sources. Results also suggest that elected officials artificially inflate interest rate assumptions to reduce current pension costs, consequently shifting these costs to future generations. In concurrence with some experts there is no data to support the assumption that highly unionized employees secure more funding than less unionized employees.^ Empirical results provide satisfactory but not overwhelming statistical power, and only minor predictive capacity. To further explore why underfunding occurs, field interviews were carried out with 62 local government officials. Practitioners indicated that perceived fiscal stress, the willingness of policymakers to advance funding, bargaining strategies used by union officials, apathy by employees and retirees, pension board composition, and the level of influence by internal pension experts has an impact on funding outcomes.^ A pension funding process model was posited by triangulating the expert survey, empirical findings, and field survey results. The funding process model should help shape and refine our theoretical knowledge of state and local government pension underfunding in the future. ^

The usefulness and appropriateness of a federalist perspective as a theoretical construct for the study of government and civics at the secondary level

This dissertation is the formulation of an argument for the incorporation of a liberated federalism perspective as the foundational theoretical construct for the teaching and study of American government and civics at the secondary level. The argument asserts that the history of the nation, in terms of its basic view of government, has developed from a traditional federalist view to a natural rights view. Instruction of government and politics has paralleled that development. The argument further asserts that the current dependence on the natural rights perspective has contributed and helped legitimize, however unintentionally, the excessive levels of individualism, self-absorption, and uncivil behavior that is being experienced in our society today.^ The argumentation follows the dialectic form presented by Hegel of thesis, antithesis, and synthesis. That is, the thesis argues that the traditional federalist perspective would serve as a viable construct for the teaching of government and civics. In this portion of the argument, the republican model of political reality is presented. The antithesis promotes the natural rights perspective and relies on the political systems model for its theoretical approach. Finally, the synthesis argues that a liberated federalism perspective should be the foundational construct. Here, the argument presents its own model as a theoretical construct that is designed to assist teachers and curriculum materials writers in the development of American government and civics lessons and materials. ^

The political economy of inequality and growth: Essays on sovereign debt, democracy and saving

This dissertation addresses three issues in the political economy of growth literature. The first study empirically tests the hypothesis that income inequality influences the size of a country's sovereign debt for a sample of developing countries for the period 1970–1990. The argument examined is that governments tend to yield to popular pressures to engage in redistributive policies, partially financed by foreign borrowing. Facing increased risk of default, international creditors limit the credit they extend, with the result that borrowing countries invest less and grow at a slower pace. The findings do not seem to support the negative relationship between inequality and sovereign debt, as there is evidence of increases in multilateral, countercyclical flows until the mid 1980s in Latin America. The hypothesis would hold for the period 1983–1990. Debt flows and levels seem to be positively correlated with growth as expected. ^ The second study empirically investigates the hypothesis that pronounced levels of inequality lead to unconsolidated democracies. We test the existence of a nonmonotonic relationship between inequality and democracy for a sample of Latin American countries for the period 1970–2000, where democracy appears to consolidate at some intermediate level of inequality. We find that the nonmonotonic relationship holds using instrumental variables methods. Bolivia seems to be a case of unconsolidated democracy. The positive relationship between per capita income and democracy disappears once fixed effects are introduced. ^ The third study explores the nonlinear relationship between per capita income and private saving levels in Latin America. Several estimation methods are presented; however, only the estimation of a dynamic specification through a state-of-the-art general method of moments estimator yields consistent estimates with increased efficiency. Results support the hypothesis that income positively affects private saving, while system GMM reveals nonlinear effects at income levels that exceed the ones included in this sample for the period 1960–1994. We also find that growth, government dissaving, and tightening of credit constraints have a highly significant and positive effect on private saving. ^

Robust and high current cold electron source based on carbon nanotube field emitters and electron multiplier microchannel plate

The aim of this research was to demonstrate a high current and stable field emission (FE) source based on carbon nanotubes (CNTs) and electron multiplier microchannel plate (MCP) and design efficient field emitters. In recent years various CNT based FE devices have been demonstrated including field emission displays, x-ray source and many more. However to use CNTs as source in high powered microwave (HPM) devices higher and stable current in the range of few milli-amperes to amperes is required. To achieve such high current we developed a novel technique of introducing a MCP between CNT cathode and anode. MCP is an array of electron multipliers; it operates by avalanche multiplication of secondary electrons, which are generated when electrons strike channel walls of MCP. FE current from CNTs is enhanced due to avalanche multiplication of secondary electrons and in addition MCP also protects CNTs from irreversible damage during vacuum arcing. Conventional MCP is not suitable for this purpose due to the lower secondary emission properties of their materials. To achieve higher and stable currents we have designed and fabricated a unique ceramic MCP consisting of high SEY materials. The MCP was fabricated utilizing optimum design parameters, which include channel dimensions and material properties obtained from charged particle optics (CPO) simulation. Child Langmuir law, which gives the optimum current density from an electron source, was taken into account during the system design and experiments. Each MCP channel consisted of MgO coated CNTs which was chosen from various material systems due to its very high SEY. With MCP inserted between CNT cathode and anode stable and higher emission current was achieved. It was ∼25 times higher than without MCP. A brighter emission image was also evidenced due to enhanced emission current. The obtained results are a significant technological advance and this research holds promise for electron source in new generation lightweight, efficient and compact microwave devices for telecommunications in satellites or space applications. As part of this work novel emitters consisting of multistage geometry with improved FE properties were was also developed.

The Current State of Argentina's Oil Industry

An oil wealthy country, Argentina has repeatedly tried and failed to capitalize on its potential. The unfortunate energy policies of subsequent Argentinean government and a lack of investment capital have been two of the main reasons that have significantly limited the production of export oil in the recent past. Yet, with recent discoveries and changes to the country’s hydrocarbon laws, there may be a new dawn for Argentina’s oil industry. Since 1999 when Argentina’s oil production peaked at approximately 800,000 barrels per day, there has been a 24 percent decrease in its oil output. The country’s oil reserves have also been in steady decline. Yet, the recently enacted reforms by Argentina’s government to incentivize foreign investment in the oil industry seem to be working, allowing investors to negotiate the terms of exploration directly with local governments. As a result, foreign investment is increasing, as well as new willingness to finance exploration of untapped reserves. Also, the discovery of shale oil in Argentina may provide the potential to become a key exporter in the region. Nonetheless, there are challenges that need to be overcome and it may be years before the various oil projects underway become profitable. The success of current oil projects, coupled with the potential of shale oil, new discoveries and the sustainability of the current energy policy reforms will likely determine if Argentina is finally able to fulfill its potential and exert itself as an oil exporter country in Latin America.