GIS-integrated mathematical modeling of social phenomena at macro- and micro- levels—a multivariate geographically-weighted regression model for identifying locations vulnerable to hosting terrorist safe-houses: France as case study

Adaptability and invisibility are hallmarks of modern terrorism, and keeping pace with its dynamic nature presents a serious challenge for societies throughout the world. Innovations in computer science have incorporated applied mathematics to develop a wide array of predictive models to support the variety of approaches to counterterrorism. Predictive models are usually designed to forecast the location of attacks. Although this may protect individual structures or locations, it does not reduce the threat—it merely changes the target. While predictive models dedicated to events or social relationships receive much attention where the mathematical and social science communities intersect, models dedicated to terrorist locations such as safe-houses (rather than their targets or training sites) are rare and possibly nonexistent. At the time of this research, there were no publically available models designed to predict locations where violent extremists are likely to reside. This research uses France as a case study to present a complex systems model that incorporates multiple quantitative, qualitative and geospatial variables that differ in terms of scale, weight, and type. Though many of these variables are recognized by specialists in security studies, there remains controversy with respect to their relative importance, degree of interaction, and interdependence. Additionally, some of the variables proposed in this research are not generally recognized as drivers, yet they warrant examination based on their potential role within a complex system. This research tested multiple regression models and determined that geographically-weighted regression analysis produced the most accurate result to accommodate non-stationary coefficient behavior, demonstrating that geographic variables are critical to understanding and predicting the phenomenon of terrorism. This dissertation presents a flexible prototypical model that can be refined and applied to other regions to inform stakeholders such as policy-makers and law enforcement in their efforts to improve national security and enhance quality-of-life.

Wildfire Assessment Using FARSITE Fire Modeling: A Case Study in the Chihuahua Desert of Mexico

The Chihuahua desert is one of the most biologically diverse ecosystems in the world, but suffers serious degradation because of changes in fire regimes resulting in large catastrophic fires. My study was conducted in the Sierra La Mojonera (SLM) natural protected area in Mexico. The purpose of this study was to implement the use of FARSITE fire modeling as a fire management tool to develop an integrated fire management plan at SLM. Firebreaks proved to detain 100% of wildfire outbreaks. The rosetophilous scrub experienced the fastest rate of fire spread and lowland creosote bush scrub experienced the slowest rate of fire spread. March experienced the fastest rate of fire spread, while September experienced the slowest rate of fire spread. The results of my study provide a tool for wildfire management through the use geospatial technologies and, in particular, FARSITE fire modeling in SLM and Mexico.