Development of safety performance functions for empirical Bayes estimation of crash reduction factors

Crash reduction factors (CRFs) are used to estimate the potential number of traffic crashes expected to be prevented from investment in safety improvement projects. The method used to develop CRFs in Florida has been based on the commonly used before-and-after approach. This approach suffers from a widely recognized problem known as regression-to-the-mean (RTM). The Empirical Bayes (EB) method has been introduced as a means to addressing the RTM problem. This method requires the information from both the treatment and reference sites in order to predict the expected number of crashes had the safety improvement projects at the treatment sites not been implemented. The information from the reference sites is estimated from a safety performance function (SPF), which is a mathematical relationship that links crashes to traffic exposure. The objective of this dissertation was to develop the SPFs for different functional classes of the Florida State Highway System. Crash data from years 2001 through 2003 along with traffic and geometric data were used in the SPF model development. SPFs for both rural and urban roadway categories were developed. The modeling data used were based on one-mile segments that contain homogeneous traffic and geometric conditions within each segment. Segments involving intersections were excluded. The scatter plots of data show that the relationships between crashes and traffic exposure are nonlinear, that crashes increase with traffic exposure in an increasing rate. Four regression models, namely, Poisson (PRM), Negative Binomial (NBRM), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB), were fitted to the one-mile segment records for individual roadway categories. The best model was selected for each category based on a combination of the Likelihood Ratio test, the Vuong statistical test, and the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The NBRM model was found to be appropriate for only one category and the ZINB model was found to be more appropriate for six other categories. The overall results show that the Negative Binomial distribution model generally provides a better fit for the data than the Poisson distribution model. In addition, the ZINB model was found to give the best fit when the count data exhibit excess zeros and over-dispersion for most of the roadway categories. While model validation shows that most data points fall within the 95% prediction intervals of the models developed, the Pearson goodness-of-fit measure does not show statistical significance. This is expected as traffic volume is only one of the many factors contributing to the overall crash experience, and that the SPFs are to be applied in conjunction with Accident Modification Factors (AMFs) to further account for the safety impacts of major geometric features before arriving at the final crash prediction. However, with improved traffic and crash data quality, the crash prediction power of SPF models may be further improved.

Appraising Work Group Performance: New Productivity Opportunities in Hospitality Management

In - Appraising Work Group Performance: New Productivity Opportunities in Hospitality Management – a discussion by Mark R. Edwards, Associate Professor, College of Engineering, Arizona State University and Leslie Edwards Cummings, Assistant Professor, College of Hotel Administration University of Nevada, Las Vegas; the authors initially provide: “Employee group performance variation accounts for a significant portion of the degree of productivity in the hotel, motel, and food service sectors of the hospitality industry. The authors discuss TEAMSG, a microcomputer based approach to appraising and interpreting group performance. TEAMSG appraisal allows an organization to profile and to evaluate groups, facilitating the targeting of training and development decisions and interventions, as well as the more equitable distribution of organizational rewards.” “The caliber of employee group performance is a major determinant in an organization's productivity and success within the hotel and food service industries,” Edwards and Cummings say. “Gaining accurate information about the quality of performance of such groups as organizational divisions, individual functional departments, or work groups can be as enlightening...” the authors further reveal. This perspective is especially important not only for strategic human resources planning purposes, but also for diagnosing development needs and for differentially distributing organizational rewards.” The authors will have you know, employee requirements in an unpredictable environment, which is what the hospitality industry largely is, are difficult to quantify. In an effort to measure elements of performance Edwards and Cummings look to TEAMSG, which is an acronym for Team Evaluation and Management System for Groups. They develop the concept. In discussing background for employees, Edwards and Cummings point-out that employees - at the individual level - must often possess and exercise varied skills. In group circumstances employees often work at locations outside of, or move from corporate unit-to-unit, as in the case of a project team. Being able to transcend individual-to-group mentality is imperative. “A solution which addresses the frustration and lack of motivation on the part of the employee is to coach, develop, appraise, and reward employees on the basis of group achievement,” say the authors. “An appraisal, effectively developed and interpreted, has at least three functions,” Edwards and Cummings suggest, and go on to define them. The authors do place a great emphasis on rewards and interventions to bolster the assertion set forth in their thesis statement. Edwards and Cummings warn that individual agendas can threaten, erode, and undermine group performance; there is no - I - in TEAM.

Stated versus observed performance levels in patients with chronic low back pain

This study examined the relationship between chronic low back pain (CLBP) patients' perceived (stated) levels of function and their measured (observed) performance in squatting and stair climbing activities as compared to healthy volunteers. Twenty patients with CLBP and 20 healthy subjects were asked through an interview to self-assess their ability to comfortably perform stair climbing and squatting as well as other tolerances. The subjects were then asked to perform the activities and their performance levels were recorded. Results of the t-tests and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) procedures revealed that patients' estimate of squatting and stair climbing abilities as well as their demonstrated levels were significantly lower (p < 0.001) than those of the healthy subjects. There was a significant difference between groups in terms of the time required to perform squatting but not stair climbing. Both healthy subjects and patients with CLBP underestimated their physical capabilities. Findings indicate that the use of actual performance measurement combined with self-report of functional abilities is needed when assessing performance levels of both healthy as well as patients with CLBP.