Barrier Island Response to Sea Level Rise in North Carolina

The state of North Carolina is home to some of the most spectacular barrier islands in the world. These features are constantly shifting, impacted by waves, tides, and wind. Studies of the Outer Banks, North Carolina have resulted in varied results, but a detailed analysis of the barrier system as a whole is lacking. Using historic topographic surveys (T-sheets) from the 19th, the positions of various barrier segments were analyzed in relation to modern imagery. Changes in area, width, and center line locations were evaluated over the past 150 years. In total, 74 percent of modern transects have decreased in area. Total reductions in size were 130 km2 for the study period. Mean centerlines as a function of migration showed that 53 percent of segments were demonstrating directional movement away from the ocean. The average movement towards the bay between modern and historic centerlines was 8 meters. Thusly, barrier islands in North Carolina are demonstrating both decreases in total area and directional movement inland in response to sea level rise.

Sediment accretion and organic carbon burial relative to sea-level rise and storm events in two mangrove forests in Everglades National Park

The goal of this investigation was to examine how sediment accretion and organic carbon (OC) burial rates in mangrove forests respond to climate change. Specifically, will the accretion rates keep pace with sea-level rise, and what is the source and fate of OC in the system? Mass accumulation, accretion and OC burial rates were determined via 210Pb dating (i.e. 100 year time scale) on sediment cores collected from two mangrove forest sites within Everglades National Park, Florida (USA). Enhanced mass accumulation, accretion and OC burial rates were found in an upper layer that corresponded to a well-documented storm surge deposit. Accretion rates were 5.9 and 6.5 mm yr− 1 within the storm deposit compared to overall rates of 2.5 and 3.6 mm yr− 1. These rates were found to be matching or exceeding average sea-level rise reported for Key West, Florida. Organic carbon burial rates were 260 and 393 g m− 2 yr− 1 within the storm deposit compared to 151 and 168 g m− 2 yr− 1 overall burial rates. The overall rates are similar to global estimates for OC burial in marine wetlands. With tropical storms being a frequent occurrence in this region the resulting storm surge deposits are an important mechanism for maintaining both overall accretion and OC burial rates. Enhanced OC burial rates within the storm deposit could be due to an increase in productivity created from higher concentrations of phosphorus within storm-delivered sediments and/or from the deposition of allochthonous OC. Climate change-amplified storms and sea-level rise could damage mangrove forests, exposing previously buried OC to oxidation and contribute to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, the processes described here provide a mechanism whereby oxidation of OC would be limited and the overall OC reservoir maintained within the mangrove forest sediments.

Sediment Accretion and Organic Carbon Burial Relative to Sea-Level Rise and Storm Events in Two Mangrove Forests in Everglades National Park

The goal of this investigation was to examine how sediment accretion and organic carbon (OC) burial rates in mangrove forests respond to climate change. Specifically, will the accretion rates keep pace with sea-level rise, and what is the source and fate of OC in the system? Mass accumulation, accretion and OC burial rates were determined via 210Pb dating (i.e. 100 year time scale) on sediment cores collected from two mangrove forest sites within Everglades National Park, Florida (USA). Enhanced mass accumulation, accretion and OC burial rates were found in an upper layer that corresponded to a well-documented storm surge deposit. Accretion rates were 5.9 and 6.5 mm yr− 1 within the storm deposit compared to overall rates of 2.5 and 3.6 mm yr− 1. These rates were found to be matching or exceeding average sea-level rise reported for Key West, Florida. Organic carbon burial rates were 260 and 393 g m− 2 yr− 1 within the storm deposit compared to 151 and 168 g m− 2 yr− 1 overall burial rates. The overall rates are similar to global estimates for OC burial in marine wetlands. With tropical storms being a frequent occurrence in this region the resulting storm surge deposits are an important mechanism for maintaining both overall accretion and OC burial rates. Enhanced OC burial rates within the storm deposit could be due to an increase in productivity created from higher concentrations of phosphorus within storm-delivered sediments and/or from the deposition of allochthonous OC. Climate change-amplified storms and sea-level rise could damage mangrove forests, exposing previously buried OC to oxidation and contribute to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, the processes described here provide a mechanism whereby oxidation of OC would be limited and the overall OC reservoir maintained within the mangrove forest sediments.

Disturbance and the rising tide: the challenge of biodiversity management on low-island ecosystems

Sea-level rise presents an imminent threat to freshwater-dependent ecosystems on small oceanic islands, which often harbor rare and endemic taxa. Conservation of these assemblages is complicated by feedbacks between sea level and recurring pulse disturbances (eg hurricanes, fire). Once sea level reaches a critical level, the transition from a landscape characterized by mesophytic upland forests and freshwater wetlands to one dominated by mangroves can occur suddenly, following a single storm-surge event. We document such a trajectory, unfolding today in the Florida Keys. With sea level projected to rise substantially during the next century, ex-situ actions may be needed to conserve individual species of special concern. However, within existing public conservation units, managers have a responsibility to conserve extant biodiversity. We propose a strategy that combines the identification and intensive management of the most defensible core sites within a broader reserve system, in which refugia for biota facing local extirpation may be sought.

Freshwater Resource Supply Modeling for Developed and Undeveloped Watersheds

Globally, the current state of freshwater resource management is insufficient and impeding the chance at a sustainable future. Human interference within the natural hydrologic cycle is becoming dangerously irreversible and the need to redefine resource managerial approaches is imminent. This research involves the development of a coupled natural-human freshwater resource supply model using a System Dynamics approach. The model was applied to two case studies, Somalia, Africa and the Phoenix Active Management Area in Arizona, USA. It is suggested that System Dynamic modeling would be an invaluable tool for achieving sustainable freshwater resource management in individual watersheds. Through a series of thought experiments, a thorough understanding of the systems’ dynamic behaviors is obtainable for freshwater resource managers and policy-makers to examine various courses of action for alleviating freshwater supply concerns. This thesis reviews the model, its development and an analysis of several thought experiments applied to the case studies.

Ecosystem responses to hydrologic change and mechanisms of nitrogen sequestration in seasonally flooded tree islands of the southern Everglades

In the Florida Everglades, tree islands are conspicuous heterogeneous elements in a complex wetland landscape. I investigated the effects of increased freshwater flow in southern Everglades seasonally flooded tree islands, and characterized biogeochemical interactions among tree islands and the marsh landscape matrix, specifically examining hydrologic flows of nitrogen (N), and landscape N sequestration capacity. I utilized ecological trajectories of key ecosystem variables to differentiate effects of increased sheetflow and hydroperiod. I utilized stable isotope analyses and nutrient content of tree island ecosystem components to test the hypothesis that key processes in tree island nitrogen cycling would favor ecosystem N sequestration. I combined estimates of tree island ecosystem N standing stocks and fluxes, soil and litter N transformation rates, and hydrologic inputs of N to quantify the net sequestration of N by a seasonally flooded tree island. ^ Results show that increased freshwater flow to seasonally flooded tree islands promoted ecosystem oligotrophy, whereas reduced flows allowed some plant species to cycle P less efficiently. As oligotrophy is a defining parameter of Everglades wetlands, and likely promotes belowground production and peat development, reintroducing freshwater flow from an upstream canal had a favorable effect on ecosystem dynamics of tree islands in the study area. Important factors influencing the stable isotopic composition of nitrogen and carbon were: (1) a contribution to soil N by soil invertebrates, animal excrement, and microbes, (2) a possible NO3 source from an upstream canal and an "open" ecosystem N cycle, and (3) greater availability of phosphorus in tree islands relative to the marsh landscape, suggesting that tree island N cycling favors N sequestration. Hydrologic sources of N were dominated by surface water loads of NO3- and NH 4+, and an important soil N transformation promoting the net loss of surface water DIN was nitrate immobilization associated with soils and surficial leaf litter. The net inorganic N sequestration capacity of a seasonally flooded tree island was 50 g yr-1 m -2. Thus, tree islands likely have an important function in landscape sequestration of inorganic N, and may reduce significant anthropogenic N loads to downstream coastal systems. ^

Projected Reorganization of Florida Bay Seagrass Communities in Response to the Increased Freshwater Inflow of Everglades Restoration

Historic changes in water-use management in the Florida Everglades have caused the quantity of freshwater inflow to Florida Bay to decline by approximately 60% while altering its timing and spatial distribution. Two consequences have been (1) increased salinity throughout the bay, including occurrences of hypersalinity, coupled with a decrease in salinity variability, and (2) change in benthic habitat structure. Restoration goals have been proposed to return the salinity climates (salinity and its variability) of Florida Bay to more estuarine conditions through changes in upstream water management, thereby returning seagrass species cover to a more historic state. To assess the potential for meeting those goals, we used two modeling approaches and long-term monitoring data. First, we applied the hydrological mass balance model FATHOM to predict salinity climate changes in sub-basins throughout the bay in response to a broad range of freshwater inflow from the Everglades. Second, because seagrass species exhibit different sensitivities to salinity climates, we used the FATHOM-modeled salinity climates as input to a statistical discriminant function model that associates eight seagrass community types with water quality variables including salinity, salinity variability, total organic carbon, total phosphorus, nitrate, and ammonium, as well as sediment depth and light reaching the benthos. Salinity climates in the western sub-basins bordering the Gulf of Mexico were insensitive to even the largest (5-fold) modeled increases in freshwater inflow. However, the north, northeastern, and eastern sub-basins were highly sensitive to freshwater inflow and responded to comparatively small increases with decreased salinity and increased salinity variability. The discriminant function model predicted increased occurrences ofHalodule wrightii communities and decreased occurrences of Thalassia testudinum communities in response to the more estuarine salinity climates. The shift in community composition represents a return to the historically observed state and suggests that restoration goals for Florida Bay can be achieved through restoration of freshwater inflow from the Everglades.

Determining Spatial and Temporal Inputs of Freshwater, Including Submarine Groundwater Discharge, to a Subtropical Estuary Using Geochemical Tracers, Biscayne Bay, South Florida

Geochemical mixing models were used to decipher the dominant source of freshwater (rainfall, canal discharge, or groundwater discharge) to Biscayne Bay, an estuary in south Florida. Discrete samples of precipitation, canal water, groundwater, and bay surface water were collected monthly for 2 years and analyzed for salinity, stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, and Sr2+/Ca2+ concentrations. These geochemical tracers were used in three separate mixing models and then combined to trace the magnitude and timing of the freshwater inputs to the estuary. Fresh groundwater had an isotopic signature (δ 18O = −2.66‰, δD −7.60‰) similar to rainfall (δ 18O = −2.86‰, δD = −4.78‰). Canal water had a heavy isotopic signature (δ 18O = −0.46‰, δD  = −2.48‰) due to evaporation. This made it possible to use stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen to separate canal water from precipitation and groundwater as a source of freshwater into the bay. A second model using Sr2+/Ca2+ ratios was developed to discern fresh groundwater inputs from precipitation inputs. Groundwater had a Sr2+/Ca2+ ratio of 0.07, while precipitation had a dissimilar ratio of 0.89. When combined, these models showed a freshwater input ratio of canal/precipitation/groundwater of 37%:53%:10% in the wet season and 40%:55%:5% in the dry season with an error of ±25%. For a bay-wide water budget that includes saltwater and freshwater mixing, fresh groundwater accounts for 1–2% of the total fresh and saline water input.

Tree Island Response to Fire and Flooding in the Short-Hydroperiod Marl Prairie Grasslands of the Florida Everglades

Within the marl prairie grasslands of the Florida Everglades, USA, the combined effects of fire and flooding usually lead to very significant changes in tree island structure and composition. Depending on fire severity and post-fire hydroperiod, these effects vary spatially and temporally throughout the landscape, creating a patchy post-fire mosaic of tree islands with different successional states. Through the use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and three predictor variables (marsh water table elevation at the time of fire, post-fire hydroperiod, and tree island size), along with logistic regression analysis, we examined the probability of tree island burning and recovering following the Mustang Corner Fire (May to June 2008) in Everglades National Park. Our data show that hydrologic conditions during and after fire, which are under varying degrees of management control, can lead to tree island contraction or loss. More specifically, the elevation of the marsh water table at the time of the fire appears to be the most important parameter determining the severity of fire in marl prairie tree islands. Furthermore, in the post-fire recovery phase, both tree island size and hydroperiod during the first year after the fire played important roles in determining the probability of tree island recovery, contraction, or loss.

Plant biogeography and conservation on a tropical island: Isla del Coco, Costa Rica

Isla del Coco (Cocos Island) is a small volcanic island located in the Pacific 500 km west of Costa Rica. Three collecting trips to Isla del Coco, in addition to herbarium research, were completed in order to assess the floristic diversity of the island. The current flora of Isla del Coco contains 262 plant species of which 37 (19.4%) are endemic. This study reports 58 species as new to the island. Seventy-one species (27.1%) were identified as introduced by humans. In addition, five potentially invasive plant species are identified. Seven vegetation types are identified on the island: bayshore, coastal cliff, riparian, low elevation humid forest, high elevation cloud forest, landslide and islet. ^ The biogeographic affinities of the native and endemic species are with Central America/northern South America and to a lesser extent, the Caribbean. Endemic species in the genus Epidendrum were investigated to determine whether an insular radiation event had produced two species found on Isla del Coco. Phylogenetic analysis of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) of nuclear ribosomal DNA was not able to disprove that the endemic species in this genus are not sister species. Molecular biogeographic analyses of ITS sequence data determined that the Isla del Coco endemic species in the genera Epidendrum, Pilea and Psychotria are most closely related to Central American/northern South American taxa. No biogeographical links were found between the floras of Isla del Coco and the Galápagos Islands. ^ The native and endemic plant diversity of Isla del Coco is threatened with habitat degradation by introduced pigs and deer, and to a lesser extent, by exotic plant species. The IUCN Red List and RAREplants criteria were used to assess the extinction threat for the 37 endemic plant taxa found on the island. All of the endemic species are considered threatened with extinction at the Critically Endangered (CR) by the IUCN criteria or either CR or Endangered (EN) using RAREplants methodology. ^

Origin, transport and fate of organic matter in Florida Bay: A biomarker record of historical environmental changes

The Everglades are undergoing the world largest wetland restoration project with the aim of returning this system to hydrological conditions in place prior to anthropogenic modifications. Therefore, it is essential to know what these pristine conditions were. In this work, molecular marker (biomarker) distributions and carbon stable isotopic signatures in sediment samples were employed to assess historical environmental changes in Florida Bay over approximately the last 4000 years. Two biomarkers of terrestrial plants, particularly for mangroves (taraxerol and C29 n-alkane), combined with two seagrass proxies (the Paq and the C25/C 27 n-alkan-2-one ratio) revealed a sedimentary environmental shift from freshwater marshes to mangrove swamps and then to seagrass dominated marine ecosystems, likely as a result of sea-level rise in Florida Bay since the Holocene. The maximum values for the Paq and the C 25/C27 n-alkan-2-ones occurred during the 20th century, suggesting that the greatest abundance of seagrass cover is a recent rather than a historical, long-term phenomenon. The greater oscillation in frequency and amplitude for the biomarkers after 1900 potentially reflects an ecosystem under increasing anthropogenic stress. Several algal biomarkers such as C20 highly branched isoprenoids (HBIs), C 25 HBIs and dinosterol indicative of cyanobacteria, diatom and dinoflagellate organic matter inputs respectively, increased dramatically in the latter part of the 20th century and were attributed to recent anthropogenic changes in Florida Bay. ^ The highlight of this work is the development of HBIs as paleo-proxies. As biomarkers of diatoms, the C25 HBIs in the core from the central bay displayed the highest concentration at mid depth, reflecting strong historical inputs of diatom-derived sedimentary OM during that period. In fact, the depth profile of C25 HBIs coincided quite well with historical variations in diatom abundance and variations in diatom species composition in central Florida Bay based on the results of fossil diatom species analysis by microscopy. This study provides evidence that some C25 HBIs can be applied as biomarkers for certain diatom inputs in paleoenvironmental studies. The sources of C20 and C30 HBIs and their potential applicability as paleo-proxies were also investigated and their sources assessed based on their δ13C distributions. ^

Quantitative diatom-based reconstruction of paleoenvironmental conditions in Florida Bay and Biscayne Bay, U.S.A.

The spatial and temporal distribution of modern diatom assemblages in surface sediments, on the most dominant macrophytes, and in the water column at 96 locations in Florida Bay, Biscayne Bay and adjacent regions were examined in order to develop paleoenvironmental prediction models for this region. Analyses of these distributions revealed distinct temporal and spatial differences in assemblages among the locations. The differences among diatom assemblages living on subaquatic vegetation and sediments, and in the water column were significant. Because concentrations of salts, total phosphorus (WTP), total nitrogen (WTN) and total organic carbon (WTOC) are partly controlled by water management in this region, diatom-based models were produced to assess these variables. Discriminant function analyses showed that diatoms can also be successfully used to reconstruct changes in the abundance of diatom assemblages typical for different habitats and life habits. ^ To interpret paleoenvironmental changes, changes in salinity, WTN, WTP and WTOC were inferred from diatoms preserved in sediment cores collected along environmental gradients in Florida Bay (4 cores) and from nearshore and offshore locations in Biscayne Bay (3 cores). The reconstructions showed that water quality conditions in these estuaries have been fluctuating for thousands of years due to natural processes and sea-level changes, but almost synchronized shifts in diatom assemblages occurred in the mid-1960’s at all coring locations (except Ninemile Bank and Bob Allen Bank in Florida Bay). These alterations correspond to the major construction of numerous water management structures on the mainland. Additionally, all the coring sites (except Card Sound Bank, Biscayne Bay and Trout Cove, Florida Bay) showed decreasing salinity and fluctuations in nutrient levels in the last two decades that correspond to increased rainfall in the 1990’s and increased freshwater discharge to the bays, a result of increased freshwater deliveries to the Everglades by South Florida Water Management District in the 1980’s and 1990’s. Reconstructions of the abundance of diatom assemblages typical for different habitats and life habits revealed multiple sources of diatoms to the coring locations and that epiphytic assemblages in both bays increased in abundance since the early 1990’s. ^

Adsorption and desorption of phosphate on limestone in experiments simulating seawater intrusion

This study investigates the potential release of from carbonate aquifers exposed to seawater intrusion. Adsorption and desorption of in the presence of deionized water (DIW) and seawater were conducted on a large block of Pleistocene age limestone to simulate the effects of seawater intrusion into a coastal carbonate aquifer at the laboratory scale. The limestone showed strong adsorption of in DIW, while adsorption was significantly less in the presence of seawater. Dissolution of CaCO3 was found to prevent adsorption at salinities less than 30 psu. Adsorption of was limited at higher salinities (30–33 psu), due to competition with ions for adsorption sites. At a salinity3 precipitated. Concentrations of between 2 and 5 μmol/L were released by desorption when the limestone was exposed to seawater. The results of this study suggest that as seawater intrudes into an originally freshwater coastal aquifer, adsorbed may be released into the groundwater. Consequently, adsorbed is expected to be released from coastal carbonate aquifers world-wide as sea level continues to rise exposing more of the freshwater aquifer to seawater.

Florida Bay: Water quality status and trends, historic and emerging algal bloom problems

Florida Bay is a unique subtropical estuary that while historically oligotrophic, has been subjected to both natural and anthropogenic stressors, including hurricanes, coastal eutrophication and other impacts. These stressors have resulted in degradation of water quality in the past several decades, most evidenced by reoccurring blooms of the picocyanobacterium Synechococcus spp. Major nutrient inputs consist of freshwater flows to the eastern region from runoff and regulated canal releases, inputs from the Everglades to the central region via Taylor Slough, exchanges with the Gulf of Mexico, which include intermittent Shark River inputs to the western region, stormwater and wastewater from the Florida Keys, and atmospheric deposition. These nutrient inputs have resulted in a transition from strong phosphorus (P) limitation of phytoplankton in the eastern bay to nitrogen (N) limitation in the western bay. Large blooms of Synechococcus were most pronounced in the central bay region, in the area of transition between P and N limitation, in the mid-1990s. Although non-toxic, these blooms, which have continued intermittently through the early 2000s, resulted in significant sea-grass and benthic organism mortalities. A new suite of stressors in 2005, including the passages of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, additional canal releases, and the initiation of road construction to widen the main roadway leading to the Keys, were correlated with a large Synechococcus bloom in the previously clear, strongly P- limited, northeastern region of the bay. Sustained for 3 years, this bloom was accompanied by a shift from P limitation to N limitation during its course. Nutrient bioassay experiments suggest that this bloom persisted due to the ability of Synechococcus to access organic N and P sources, microbial and geochemical cycling of organic and inorganic nutrients in the water column and between the water column and sediments (both suspended particles and benthos), and decreased grazing by benthic fauna due to their die-off.

The Role of the Everglades Mangrove Ecotone Region (EMER) in Regulating Nutrient Cycling and Wetland Productivity in South Florida

The authors summarize the main findings of the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research (FCE-LTER) program in the EMER, within the context of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), to understand how regional processes, mediated by water flow, control population and ecosystem dynamics across the EMER landscape. Tree canopies with maximum height <3 m cover 49% of the EMER, particularly in the SE region. These scrub/dwarf mangroves are the result of a combination of low soil phosphorus (P < 59 μg P g dw−1) in the calcareous marl substrate and long hydroperiod. Phosphorus limits the EMER and its freshwater watersheds due to the lack of terrigenous sediment input and the phosphorus-limited nature of the freshwater Everglades. Reduced freshwater delivery over the past 50 years, combined with Everglades compartmentalization and a 10 cm rise in coastal sea level, has led to the landward transgression (1.5 km in 54 years) of the mangrove ecotone. Seasonal variation in freshwater input strongly controls the temporal variation of nitrogen and P exports (99%) from the Everglades to Florida Bay. Rapid changes in nutrient availability and vegetation distribution during the last 50 years show that future ecosystem restoration actions and land use decisions can exert a major influence, similar to sea level rise over the short term, on nutrient cycling and wetland productivity in the EMER.