Essays on financial crises

This dissertation analyzes recent financial crises in developed and developing countries. The research emphasizes the effects of institutional factors on the international banking and currency crises and their output losses. ^ Chapter two examines the roles of regulation, supervision, and countries' institutional environment in determining the probability of banking crises for a panel of fifteen developed countries from 1975 to 1998. The results from a multivariate logit model indicated that countries with greater government involvement, less capital standard requirements, and lower lending limits on a single borrower are associated with a higher probability of banking crises. ^ Chapter three studies whether output loss in banking crisis differs in market-based or bank-based financial systems. Using existing banking crisis data for sixty-nine countries during 1970–1999, we investigate whether the underlying financial system affects the output loss. The results show that output losses are more serious in market-based economies than those in bank-based economies. Longer crisis duration tends to increase the output losses in banking crises. Finally, countries with deposit insurance and strict law enforcement have less output losses. ^ Chapter four uses macroeconomic and institutional measures to explain the extent of exchange rate depreciation and the decline in stock prices for emerging countries affected by the Mexican currency crisis of 1994–95. The results show that countries with more government budget deficits, and worse reserve adequacies tend to experience large exchange rate depreciation. The institutional measures do not explain much the extent of both the exchange rate depreciation and the decline in stock prices. ^

Frameworks for Systemic and Structural Analysis of Financial Innovations in Infrastructure

Financial innovations have emerged globally to close the gap between the rising global demand for infrastructures and the availability of financing sources offered by traditional financing mechanisms such as fuel taxation, tax-exempt bonds, and federal and state funds. The key to sustainable innovative financing mechanisms is effective policymaking. This paper discusses the theoretical framework of a research study whose objective is to structurally and systemically assess financial innovations in global infrastructures. The research aims to create analysis frameworks, taxonomies and constructs, and simulation models pertaining to the dynamics of the innovation process to be used in policy analysis. Structural assessment of innovative financing focuses on the typologies and loci of innovations and evaluates the performance of different types of innovative financing mechanisms. Systemic analysis of innovative financing explores the determinants of the innovation process using the System of Innovation approach. The final deliverables of the research include propositions pertaining to the constituents of System of Innovation for infrastructure finance which include the players, institutions, activities, and networks. These static constructs are used to develop a hybrid Agent-Based/System Dynamics simulation model to derive propositions regarding the emergent dynamics of the system. The initial outcomes of the research study are presented in this paper and include: (a) an archetype for mapping innovative financing mechanisms, (b) a System of Systems-based analysis framework to identify the dimensions of Systems of Innovation analyses, and (c) initial observations regarding the players, institutions, activities, and networks of the System of Innovation in the context of the U.S. transportation infrastructure financing.