Exchange rate overvaluation under hyperinflation: The case of Peru

This dissertation examines the behavior of the exchange rate under two different scenarios. The first one is characterized by, relatively, low inflation or a situation where prices adjust sluggishly. The second is a high inflation economy where prices respond very rapidly even to unanticipated shocks. In the first one, following a monetary expansion, the exchange rate overshoots, i.e. the nominal exchange rate depreciates at a faster pace than the price level. Under high levels of inflation, prices change faster than the exchange rate so the exchange rate undershoots its long run equilibrium value.^ The standard work in this area, Dornbusch (1976), explains the overshooting process in the context of perfect capital mobility and sluggish adjustment in the goods market. A monetary expansion will make the exchange rate increase beyond its long run equilibrium value. This dissertation expands on Dornbusch's model and provides an analysis of the exchange rate under conditions of currency substitution and price flexibility, characteristics of the Peruvian economy during the hyper inflation process that took place at the end of the 1980's. The results of the modified Dornbusch model reveal that, given a monetary expansion, the change in the price level will be larger than the change in the exchange rate if prices react more than proportionally to the monetary shock.^ We will expect this over-reaction in circumstances of high inflation when the velocity of money is increasing very rapidly. Increasing velocity of money, gives rise to a higher relative price variability which in turn contributes to the appearance of new financial (and also non-financial) instruments that report a higher return than the exchange rate, causing people to switch their demand for foreign exchange to this new assets. In the context of currency substitution, economic agents hoard and use foreign exchange as a store of value. The big decline in output originated by hyper inflation induces people to sell this hoarded money to finance current expenses, increasing the supply of foreign exchange in the market. Both, the decrease in demand and the increase in supply reduce the price of foreign exchange i.e. the real exchange rate. The findings mentioned above are tested using Peruvian data for the period January 1985-July 1990, the results of the econometric estimation confirm our findings in the theoretical model. ^

Multidimensional classification and diagnosis of leukemia in flow cytometry

This research is to establish new optimization methods for pattern recognition and classification of different white blood cells in actual patient data to enhance the process of diagnosis. Beckman-Coulter Corporation supplied flow cytometry data of numerous patients that are used as training sets to exploit the different physiological characteristics of the different samples provided. The methods of Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were used as promising pattern classification techniques to identify different white blood cell samples and provide information to medical doctors in the form of diagnostic references for the specific disease states, leukemia. The obtained results prove that when a neural network classifier is well configured and trained with cross-validation, it can perform better than support vector classifiers alone for this type of data. Furthermore, a new unsupervised learning algorithm---Density based Adaptive Window Clustering algorithm (DAWC) was designed to process large volumes of data for finding location of high data cluster in real-time. It reduces the computational load to ∼O(N) number of computations, and thus making the algorithm more attractive and faster than current hierarchical algorithms.

Effect of water on olivine single crystals plasticity, deformed under high pressure and high temperature

The Earth's upper mantle, mainly composed of olivine, is seismically anisotropic. Seismic anisotropy attenuation has been observed at 220km depth. Karato et al. (1992) attributed this attenuation to a transition between two deformation mechanisms, from dislocation creep above 220km to diffusion creep below 220km, induced by a change in water content. Couvy (2005) and Mainprice et al. (2005) predicted a change in Lattice Preferred Orientation induced by pressure, which comes from a change of slip system, from [100] slip to [001] slip, and is responsible for the seismic anisotropy attenuation. Raterron et al. (2007) ran single crystal deformation experiments under anhydrous conditions and observed that the slip system transition occurs around 8GPa, which corresponds to a depth of 260Km. Experiments were done to quantify the effects of water on olivine single crystals deformed using D-DIA press and synchrotron beam. Deformations were carried out in uniaxial compression along [110]c, [011]c, and [101]c, crystallographic directions, at pressure ranging from 4 to 8GPa and temperature between 1373 and 1473K. Talc sleeves about the annulus of the single crystals were used as source of water in the assembly. Stress and specimen strain rates were calculated by in-situ X-ray diffraction and time resolved imaging, respectively. By direct comparison of single crystals strain rates, we observed that [110]c deforms faster than [011]c below 5GPa. However above 6GPa [011]c deforms faster than [110]c. This revealed that [100](010) is the dominant slip system below 5GPa, and above 6GPa [001](010) becomes dominant. According to our results, the slip system transition, which is induced by pressure, occurs at 6GPa. Water influences the pressure where the switch over occurs, by lowering the transition pressure. The pressure effect on the slip systems activity has been quantified and the hydrolytic weakening has also been estimated for both orientations. Data also shows that temperature affects the slip system activity. The regional variation of the depth for the seismic anisotropy attenuation, which would depend on local hydroxyl content and temperature variations and explains the seismic anisotropy attenuation occurring at about 220Km depth in the mantle, where the pressure is about 6GPa. Deformation of MgO single crystal oriented [100], [110] and [111] were also performed. The results predict a change in the slip system activity at 23GPa, again induced by pressure. This explains the seismic anisotropy observed in the lower mantle.

Controls on herbaceous litter decomposition in the estuarine ecotones of the Florida Everglades

The effects of nutrient availability and litter quality on litter decomposition were measured in two oligotrophic phosphorus (P)-limited Florida Everglades esturies, United States. The two estuaries differ, in that one (Shark River estuary) is directly connected to the Gulf of Mexico and receives marine P, while the other (Taylor Slough estuary) does not receive marine P because Florida Bay separates it from the Gulf of Mexico. Decomposition of three macrophytes.Cladium jamaicense, Eleochaaris spp., andJuncus roemerianus, was studied using a litter bag technique over 18 mo. Litter was exposed to three treatments: soil surface+macroinvertebrates (=macro), soil surface without macroinvertebrates (=wet), and above the soil and water (=aerial). The third treatment replicated the decomposition of standing dead leaves. Decomposition rates showed that litter exposed to the wet and macro treatments decomposed significantly faster than the aerial treatment, where atmospheric deposition was the only source of nutrients. Macroinvertebrates had no influence on litter decompostion rates.C. jamaicense decomposed faster at sites, with higher P, andEleocharis spp. decomposed significantly faster at sites with higher nitrogen (N). Initial tissue C:N and C:P molar ratios revealed that the nutrient quality of litter of bothEleocharis spp. andJ. roemerianus was higher thanC. jamaicense, but onlyEleocharis spp. decomposed faster thanC. jamaicense. C. jamaicense litter tended to immobilize P, whileEleocharis spp. litter showed net remineralization of N and P. A comparison with other estuarine and wetland systems revealed the dependence of litter decomposition on nutrient availability and litter quality. The results from this experiment suggest that Everglades restoration may have an important effect on key ecosystem processes in the estuarine ecotone of this landscape.

Ontogenetic Scaling of Poison Glands in Dendrobates Pumilio

The relationship between granular (poison) gland size and density was examined in an ontogenetic series of the strawberry dart-poison frog, Dendrobates pumilio. Specimens used in this study were collected from the La Selva Biological Station in northeastern Costa Rica. Patches of skin from the dorsal surface of seven frogs, ranging in size from 11 to 23 mm snout-vent length (SVL), were fixed and embedded in paraffin for histological sectioning. Poison gland size and density were quantified microscopically in these sections. Poison glands are uniformly distributed across the skin and mean poison gland diameter increases at a rate faster than snout-vent length from 42.5 at SVL 11mm to 120.0 at SVL 23 mm. Conversely, gland density decreases with body size from 71.9 glands/mm2 to 33.2 glands/mm2 • Due to the positive allometric growth of the poison glands, the percentage of skin surface occupied by poison glands increases from 10.1-22.1% in small frogs (SVL<18 >mm) to 50.0-65.2% in large frogs (SVL>19MM), resulting in more toxin per mm2 in the larger animals. The largest increase in toxicity is correlated temporally with the onset of sexual maturity rather than with changes in aposematic coloring.

Slow Isotope Turnover Rates and Low Discrimination Values in the American Alligator: Implications for Interpretation of Ectotherm Stable Isotope Data

Stable isotope analysis has become a standard ecological tool for elucidating feeding relationships of organisms and determining food web structure and connectivity. There remain important questions concerning rates at which stable isotope values are incorporated into tissues (turnover rates) and the change in isotope value between a tissue and a food source (discrimination values). These gaps in our understanding necessitate experimental studies to adequately interpret field data. Tissue turnover rates and discrimination values vary among species and have been investigated in a broad array of taxa. However, little attention has been paid to ectothermic top predators in this regard. We quantified the turnover rates and discrimination values for three tissues (scutes, red blood cells, and plasma) in American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis). Plasma turned over faster than scutes or red blood cells, but turnover rates of all three tissues were very slow in comparison to those in endothermic species. Alligator δ15N discrimination values were surprisingly low in comparison to those of other top predators and varied between experimental and control alligators. The variability of δ15N discrimination values highlights the difficulties in using δ15N to assign absolute and possibly even relative trophic levels in field studies. Our results suggest that interpreting stable isotope data based on parameter estimates from other species can be problematic and that large ectothermic tetrapod tissues may be characterized by unique stable isotope dynamics relative to species occupying lower trophic levels and endothermic tetrapods.

Cascade artificial neural networks technique for solving ellipsometry problems

Ellipsometry is a well known optical technique used for the characterization of reflective surfaces in study and films between two media. It is based on measuring the change in the state of polarization that occurs as a beam of polarized light is reflected from or transmitted through the film. Measuring this change can be used to calculate parameters of a single layer film such as the thickness and the refractive index. However, extracting these parameters of interest requires significant numerical processing due to the noninvertible equations. Typically, this is done using least squares solving methods which are slow and adversely affected by local minima in the solvable surface. This thesis describes the development and implementation of a new technique using only Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to calculate thin film parameters. The new method offers a speed in the orders of magnitude faster than preceding methods and convergence to local minima is completely eliminated.