Essays in environmental economic valuation and decision making in the presence of an environmental disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household's evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household's optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Analysis of global compliance and implementation of the goals of international environmental treaties: A case study of the Convention on Biodiversity (CBD)

The Convention on Biodiversity (CBD) was created in 1992 to coordinate global governments to protect biological resources. The CBD has three goals: protection of biodiversity, achievement of sustainable use of biodiversity and facilitation of equitable sharing of the benefits of biological resources. The goal of protecting biological resources has remained both controversial and difficult to implement. This study focused more on the goal of biodiversity protection. The research was designed to examine how globally constructed environmental policies get adapted by national governments and then passed down to local levels where actual implementation takes place. Effectiveness of such policies depends on the extent of actual implementation at local levels. Therefore, compliance was divided and examined at three levels: global, national and local. The study then developed various criteria to measure compliance at these levels. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to analyze compliance and implementation. The study was guided by three questions broadly examining critical factors that most influence the implementation of biodiversity protection policies at the global, national and local levels. Findings show that despite an overall biodiversity deficit of 0.9 hectares per person, global compliance with the CBD goals is currently at 35%. Compliance is lowest at local levels at 14%, it is slightly better at national level at 50%, and much better at the international level 64%. Compliance appears higher at both national and international levels because compliance here is paper work based and policy formulation. If implementation at local levels continues to produce this low compliance, overall conservation outcomes can only get worse than what it is at present. There are numerous weaknesses and capacity challenges countries are yet to address in their plans. In order to increase local level compliance, the study recommends a set of robust policies that build local capacity, incentivize local resource owners, and implement biodiversity protection programs that are akin to local needs and aspirations.^

Essays in Environmental Economic Valuation and Decision Making in the Presence of an Environmental Disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household’s evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household’s optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Analysis of Global Compliance and Implementation of the Goals of International Environmental Treaties: A Case study of the Convention on Biodiversity (CBD)

The Convention on Biodiversity (CBD) was created in 1992 to coordinate global governments to protect biological resources. The CBD has three goals: protection of biodiversity, achievement of sustainable use of biodiversity and facilitation of equitable sharing of the benefits of biological resources. The goal of protecting biological resources has remained both controversial and difficult to implement. This study focused more on the goal of biodiversity protection. The research was designed to examine how globally constructed environmental policies get adapted by national governments and then passed down to local levels where actual implementation takes place. Effectiveness of such policies depends on the extent of actual implementation at local levels. Therefore, compliance was divided and examined at three levels: global, national and local. The study then developed various criteria to measure compliance at these levels. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to analyze compliance and implementation. The study was guided by three questions broadly examining critical factors that most influence the implementation of biodiversity protection policies at the global, national and local levels. Findings show that despite an overall biodiversity deficit of 0.9 hectares per person, global compliance with the CBD goals is currently at 35%. Compliance is lowest at local levels at 14%, it is slightly better at national level at 50%, and much better at the international level 64%. Compliance appears higher at both national and international levels because compliance here is paper work based and policy formulation. If implementation at local levels continues to produce this low compliance, overall conservation outcomes can only get worse than what it is at present. There are numerous weaknesses and capacity challenges countries are yet to address in their plans. In order to increase local level compliance, the study recommends a set of robust policies that build local capacity, incentivize local resource owners, and implement biodiversity protection programs that are akin to local needs and aspirations.