Development of safety performance functions for empirical Bayes estimation of crash reduction factors

Crash reduction factors (CRFs) are used to estimate the potential number of traffic crashes expected to be prevented from investment in safety improvement projects. The method used to develop CRFs in Florida has been based on the commonly used before-and-after approach. This approach suffers from a widely recognized problem known as regression-to-the-mean (RTM). The Empirical Bayes (EB) method has been introduced as a means to addressing the RTM problem. This method requires the information from both the treatment and reference sites in order to predict the expected number of crashes had the safety improvement projects at the treatment sites not been implemented. The information from the reference sites is estimated from a safety performance function (SPF), which is a mathematical relationship that links crashes to traffic exposure. The objective of this dissertation was to develop the SPFs for different functional classes of the Florida State Highway System. Crash data from years 2001 through 2003 along with traffic and geometric data were used in the SPF model development. SPFs for both rural and urban roadway categories were developed. The modeling data used were based on one-mile segments that contain homogeneous traffic and geometric conditions within each segment. Segments involving intersections were excluded. The scatter plots of data show that the relationships between crashes and traffic exposure are nonlinear, that crashes increase with traffic exposure in an increasing rate. Four regression models, namely, Poisson (PRM), Negative Binomial (NBRM), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB), were fitted to the one-mile segment records for individual roadway categories. The best model was selected for each category based on a combination of the Likelihood Ratio test, the Vuong statistical test, and the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The NBRM model was found to be appropriate for only one category and the ZINB model was found to be more appropriate for six other categories. The overall results show that the Negative Binomial distribution model generally provides a better fit for the data than the Poisson distribution model. In addition, the ZINB model was found to give the best fit when the count data exhibit excess zeros and over-dispersion for most of the roadway categories. While model validation shows that most data points fall within the 95% prediction intervals of the models developed, the Pearson goodness-of-fit measure does not show statistical significance. This is expected as traffic volume is only one of the many factors contributing to the overall crash experience, and that the SPFs are to be applied in conjunction with Accident Modification Factors (AMFs) to further account for the safety impacts of major geometric features before arriving at the final crash prediction. However, with improved traffic and crash data quality, the crash prediction power of SPF models may be further improved.

The impact of eliminating extraneous sound and light on students' achievement: An empirical study

The impact of eliminating extraneous sound and light on students’ achievement was investigated under four conditions: Light and Sound controlled, Sound Only controlled, Light Only controlled and neither Light nor Sound controlled. Group, age and gender were the control variables. Four randomly selected groups of high school freshmen students with different backgrounds were the participants in this study. Academic achievement was the dependent variable measured on a pretest, a posttest and a post-posttest, each separated by an interval of 15 days. ANOVA was used to test the various hypotheses related to the impact of eliminating sound and light on student learning. Independent sample T tests on the effect of gender indicated a significant effect while age was non- significant. Follow up analysis indicated that sound and light are not potential sources of extraneous load when tested individually. However, the combined effect of sound and light seems to be a potential source of extrinsic load. The findings revealed that the performance of the Sound and Light controlled group was greater during the posttest and post-posttest. The overall performance of boys was greater than that of girls. Results indicated a significant interaction effect between group and gender on treatment subjects. However gender alone was non-significant. Performance of group by age had no significant interaction and age alone was non-significant in the posttest and post-posttest. Based on the results obtained sound and light combined seemed to be the potential sources of extraneous load in this type of learning environment. This finding supports previous research on the effect of sound and light on learning. The findings of this study show that extraneous sound and light have an impact on learning. These findings can be used to design better learning environments. Such environments can be achieved with different electric lighting and sound systems that provide optimal color rendering, low glare, low flicker, low noise and reverberation. These environments will help people avoid unwanted distraction, drowsiness, and photosensitive behavior.

Measurement of carotenoid levels in human serum and a catalog of the lutein conformation populations from semi-empirical calculations

Lutein is a principal constituent of the human macular pigment. This study is composed of two projects. The first studies the conformational geometries of lutein and its potential adaptability in biological systems. The second is a study of the response of human subjects to lutein supplements. Using semi-empirical parametric method 3 (PM3) and density functional theory with the B3LYP/6-31G* basis set, the relative energies of s- cis conformers of lutein were determined. All 512 s-cis conformers were calculated with PM3. A smaller, representative group was also studied using density functional theory. PM3 results were correlated systematically to B3LYP values and this enables the results to be calibrated. The relative energies of the conformers range from 1-30 kcal/mole, and many are dynamically accessible at normal temperatures. Four commercial formulations containing lutein were studied. The serum and macular pigment (MP) responses of human subjects to these lutein supplements with doses of 9 or 20 mg/day were measured, relative to a placebo, over a six month period. In each instance, lutein levels in serum increased and correlated with MP increases. The results demonstrate that responses are significantly dependent upon formulation and that components other than lutein have an important influence serum response.

Participation in a positive youth development program and multi -problem alternative high school students' transformative goals: An investigation of the theoretical and methodological utility and validity of the Transformative Goal Attainment (TGAS)

There is a growing body of literature that provides evidence for the efficacy of positive youth development programs in general and preliminary empirical support for the efficacy of the Changing Lives Program (CLP) in particular. This dissertation sought to extend previous efforts to develop and preliminarily examine the Transformative Goal Attainment Scale (TGAS) as a measure of participant empowerment in the promotion of positive development. Consistent with recent advances in the use of qualitative research methods, this dissertation sought to further investigate the utility of Relational Data Analysis (RDA) for providing categorizations of qualitative open-ended response data. In particular, a qualitative index of Transformative Goals, TG, was developed to complement the previously developed quantitative index of Transformative Goal Attainment (TGA), and RDA procedures for calculating reliability and content validity were refined. Second, as a Stage I pilot/feasibility study this study preliminarily examined the potentially mediating role of empowerment, as indexed by the TGAS, in the promotion of positive development. ^ Fifty-seven participants took part in this study, forty CLP intervention participants and seventeen control condition participants. All 57 participants were administered the study's measures just prior to and just following the fall 2003 semester. This study thus used a short-term longitudinal quasi-experimental research design with a comparison control group. ^ RDA procedures were refined and applied to the categorization of open-ended response data regarding participants' transformative goals (TG) and future possible selves (PSQ-QE). These analyses revealed relatively strong, indirect evidence for the construct validity of the categories as well as their theoretically meaningful structural organization, thereby providing sufficient support for the utility of RDA procedures in the categorization of qualitative open-ended response data. ^ In addition, transformative goals (TG) and future possible selves (PSQ-QE), and the quantitative index of perceived goal attainment (TGA) were evaluated as potential mediators of positive development by testing their relationships to other indices of positive intervention outcome within a four-step method involving both analysis of variance (ANOVA and RMANOVAs) and regression analysis. Though more limited in scope than the efforts at the development and refinement of the measures of these mediators, the results were also promising. ^