Improving the predictability of time series by chaotic parameter estimation

Limited literature regarding parameter estimation of dynamic systems has been identified as the central-most reason for not having parametric bounds in chaotic time series. However, literature suggests that a chaotic system displays a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and our study reveals that the behavior of chaotic system: is also sensitive to changes in parameter values. Therefore, parameter estimation technique could make it possible to establish parametric bounds on a nonlinear dynamic system underlying a given time series, which in turn can improve predictability. By extracting the relationship between parametric bounds and predictability, we implemented chaos-based models for improving prediction in time series. ^ This study describes work done to establish bounds on a set of unknown parameters. Our research results reveal that by establishing parametric bounds, it is possible to improve the predictability of any time series, although the dynamics or the mathematical model of that series is not known apriori. In our attempt to improve the predictability of various time series, we have established the bounds for a set of unknown parameters. These are: (i) the embedding dimension to unfold a set of observation in the phase space, (ii) the time delay to use for a series, (iii) the number of neighborhood points to use for avoiding detection of false neighborhood and, (iv) the local polynomial to build numerical interpolation functions from one region to another. Using these bounds, we are able to get better predictability in chaotic time series than previously reported. In addition, the developments of this dissertation can establish a theoretical framework to investigate predictability in time series from the system-dynamics point of view. ^ In closing, our procedure significantly reduces the computer resource usage, as the search method is refined and efficient. Finally, the uniqueness of our method lies in its ability to extract chaotic dynamics inherent in non-linear time series by observing its values. ^

Dynamic data retrieval on the World Wide Web

Methods for accessing data on the Web have been the focus of active research over the past few years. In this thesis we propose a method for representing Web sites as data sources. We designed a Data Extractor data retrieval solution that allows us to define queries to Web sites and process resulting data sets. Data Extractor is being integrated into the MSemODB heterogeneous database management system. With its help database queries can be distributed over both local and Web data sources within MSemODB framework. ^ Data Extractor treats Web sites as data sources, controlling query execution and data retrieval. It works as an intermediary between the applications and the sites. Data Extractor utilizes a twofold “custom wrapper” approach for information retrieval. Wrappers for the majority of sites are easily built using a powerful and expressive scripting language, while complex cases are processed using Java-based wrappers that utilize specially designed library of data retrieval, parsing and Web access routines. In addition to wrapper development we thoroughly investigate issues associated with Web site selection, analysis and processing. ^ Data Extractor is designed to act as a data retrieval server, as well as an embedded data retrieval solution. We also use it to create mobile agents that are shipped over the Internet to the client's computer to perform data retrieval on behalf of the user. This approach allows Data Extractor to distribute and scale well. ^ This study confirms feasibility of building custom wrappers for Web sites. This approach provides accuracy of data retrieval, and power and flexibility in handling of complex cases. ^

Physical dynamic simulation of shipboard power system components in a distributed computational environment

Shipboard power systems have different characteristics than the utility power systems. In the Shipboard power system it is crucial that the systems and equipment work at their peak performance levels. One of the most demanding aspects for simulations of the Shipboard Power Systems is to connect the device under test to a real-time simulated dynamic equivalent and in an environment with actual hardware in the Loop (HIL). The real time simulations can be achieved by using multi-distributed modeling concept, in which the global system model is distributed over several processors through a communication link. The advantage of this approach is that it permits the gradual change from pure simulation to actual application. In order to perform system studies in such an environment physical phase variable models of different components of the shipboard power system were developed using operational parameters obtained from finite element (FE) analysis. These models were developed for two types of studies low and high frequency studies. Low frequency studies are used to examine the shipboard power systems behavior under load switching, and faults. High-frequency studies were used to predict abnormal conditions due to overvoltage, and components harmonic behavior. Different experiments were conducted to validate the developed models. The Simulation and experiment results show excellent agreement. The shipboard power systems components behavior under internal faults was investigated using FE analysis. This developed technique is very curial in the Shipboard power systems faults detection due to the lack of comprehensive fault test databases. A wavelet based methodology for feature extraction of the shipboard power systems current signals was developed for harmonic and fault diagnosis studies. This modeling methodology can be utilized to evaluate and predicate the NPS components future behavior in the design stage which will reduce the development cycles, cut overall cost, prevent failures, and test each subsystem exhaustively before integrating it into the system.

Neuroendocrine control of a dynamic communication signal

Multiple physiological systems regulate the electric communication signal of the weakly electric gymnotiform fish, Brachyhypopomus pinnicaudatus. Fish were injected with neuroendocrine probes which identified pharmacologically relevant serotonin (5-HT) receptors similar to the mammalian 5-HT1AR and 5-HT2AR. Peptide hormones of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal/interrenal axis also augment the electric waveform. These results indicate that the central serotonergic system interacts with the hypothalamic-pituitary-interrenal system to regulate communication signals in this species. The same neuroendocrine probes were tested in females before and after introducing androgens to examine the relationship between sex steroid hormones, the serotonergic system, melanocortin peptides, and EOD modulations. Androgens caused an increase in female B. pinnicaudatus responsiveness to other pharmacological challenges, particularly to the melanocortin peptide adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH). A forced social challenge paradigm was administered to determine if androgens are responsible for controlling the signal modulations these fish exhibit when they encounter conspecifics. Males and females responded similarly to this social challenge construct, however introducing androgens caused implanted females to produce more exaggerated responses. These results confirm that androgens enhance an individual's capacity to produce an exaggerated response to challenge, however another unidentified factor appears to regulate sex-specific behaviors in this species. These results suggest that the rapid electric waveform modulations B. pinnicaudatus produces in response to conspecifics are situation-specific and controlled by activation of different serotonin receptor types and the subsequent effect on release of pituitary hormones.

Freeway travel time estimation and prediction using dynamic neural networks

Providing transportation system operators and travelers with accurate travel time information allows them to make more informed decisions, yielding benefits for individual travelers and for the entire transportation system. Most existing advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) and advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) use instantaneous travel time values estimated based on the current measurements, assuming that traffic conditions remain constant in the near future. For more effective applications, it has been proposed that ATIS and ATMS should use travel times predicted for short-term future conditions rather than instantaneous travel times measured or estimated for current conditions. ^ This dissertation research investigates short-term freeway travel time prediction using Dynamic Neural Networks (DNN) based on traffic detector data collected by radar traffic detectors installed along a freeway corridor. DNN comprises a class of neural networks that are particularly suitable for predicting variables like travel time, but has not been adequately investigated for this purpose. Before this investigation, it was necessary to identifying methods for data imputation to account for missing data usually encountered when collecting data using traffic detectors. It was also necessary to identify a method to estimate the travel time on the freeway corridor based on data collected using point traffic detectors. A new travel time estimation method referred to as the Piecewise Constant Acceleration Based (PCAB) method was developed and compared with other methods reported in the literatures. The results show that one of the simple travel time estimation methods (the average speed method) can work as well as the PCAB method, and both of them out-perform other methods. This study also compared the travel time prediction performance of three different DNN topologies with different memory setups. The results show that one DNN topology (the time-delay neural networks) out-performs the other two DNN topologies for the investigated prediction problem. This topology also performs slightly better than the simple multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network topology that has been used in a number of previous studies for travel time prediction.^

Knowledge creation in dynamic learning environments

Researchers have extensively discussed using knowledge management to achieve sustainable competitive advantages; however, the successful implementation of knowledge management programs in organizations remains challenging. Problems with knowledge management arise primarily from issues related to inter-subjective creation of meaning by diverse individuals in a dynamic learning environment. ^ The first part of this dissertation examined the concepts of shared interpretive resources referring to background assumptions, shared language, and symbolic resources upon which individuals draw in their interactions in the community. The discussion adopted an interpretive research approach to underscore how community members develop shared interpretive resources over time. The second part examined how learners' behaviors influence knowledge acquisition in the community, emphasizing the associations between learners' learning approaches and learning contexts. An empirical survey of learners provided significant evidence to demonstrate the influences of learners' learning approaches. The third part examined an instructor's strategy—namely, advance organizer—to enhance learners' knowledge assimilation process. Advance organizer is an instructor strategy that refers to a set of inclusive concepts that introduce and sum up new material, and refers to a method of bridging and linking old information with something new. In this part, I underscore the concepts of advance organizer, and the implementations of advance organizer in one learning environment. A study was conducted in one higher educational environment to show the implementation of advance organizer. Additionally, an advance organizer instrument was developed and tested, and results from learners' feedback were analyzed. The significant empirical evidence showed the association between learners' learning outcomes and the implementation of advance organizer strategy. ^

An improved framework for dynamic origin-destination (O-D) matrix estimation

This dissertation aims to improve the performance of existing assignment-based dynamic origin-destination (O-D) matrix estimation models to successfully apply Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) strategies for the purposes of traffic congestion relief and dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) in transportation network modeling. The methodology framework has two advantages over the existing assignment-based dynamic O-D matrix estimation models. First, it combines an initial O-D estimation model into the estimation process to provide a high confidence level of initial input for the dynamic O-D estimation model, which has the potential to improve the final estimation results and reduce the associated computation time. Second, the proposed methodology framework can automatically convert traffic volume deviation to traffic density deviation in the objective function under congested traffic conditions. Traffic density is a better indicator for traffic demand than traffic volume under congested traffic condition, thus the conversion can contribute to improving the estimation performance. The proposed method indicates a better performance than a typical assignment-based estimation model (Zhou et al., 2003) in several case studies. In the case study for I-95 in Miami-Dade County, Florida, the proposed method produces a good result in seven iterations, with a root mean square percentage error (RMSPE) of 0.010 for traffic volume and a RMSPE of 0.283 for speed. In contrast, Zhou's model requires 50 iterations to obtain a RMSPE of 0.023 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.285 for speed. In the case study for Jacksonville, Florida, the proposed method reaches a convergent solution in 16 iterations with a RMSPE of 0.045 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.110 for speed, while Zhou's model needs 10 iterations to obtain the best solution, with a RMSPE of 0.168 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.179 for speed. The successful application of the proposed methodology framework to real road networks demonstrates its ability to provide results both with satisfactory accuracy and within a reasonable time, thus establishing its potential usefulness to support dynamic traffic assignment modeling, ITS systems, and other strategies.

Development of a dynamic headspace concentration technique for the non-contact sampling of human odor samples and the creation of canine training aids

Human scent and human remains detection canines are used to locate living or deceased humans under many circumstances. Human scent canines locate individual humans on the basis of their unique scent profile, while human remains detection canines locate the general scent of decomposing human remains. Scent evidence is often collected by law enforcement agencies using a Scent Transfer Unit, a dynamic headspace concentration device. The goals of this research were to evaluate the STU-100 for the collection of human scent samples, and to apply this method to the collection of living and deceased human samples, and to the creation of canine training aids. The airflow rate and collection material used with the STU-100 were evaluated using a novel scent delivery method. Controlled Odor Mimic Permeation Systems were created containing representative standard compounds delivered at known rates, improving the reproducibility of optimization experiments. Flow rates and collection materials were compared. Higher air flow rates usually yielded significantly less total volatile compounds due to compound breakthrough through the collection material. Collection from polymer and cellulose-based materials demonstrated that the molecular backbone of the material is a factor in the trapping and releasing of compounds. The weave of the material also affects compound collection, as those materials with a tighter weave demonstrated enhanced collection efficiencies. Using the optimized method, volatiles were efficiently collected from living and deceased humans. Replicates of the living human samples showed good reproducibility; however, the odor profiles from individuals were not always distinguishable from one another. Analysis of the human remains samples revealed similarity in the type and ratio of compounds. Two types of prototype training aids were developed utilizing combinations of pure compounds as well as volatiles from actual human samples concentrated onto sorbents, which were subsequently used in field tests. The pseudo scent aids had moderate success in field tests, and the Odor pad aids had significant success. This research demonstrates that the STU-100 is a valuable tool for dog handlers and as a field instrument; however, modifications are warranted in order to improve its performance as a method for instrumental detection.

Abstractions to support dynamic adaptation of communication frameworks for user-centric communication

The convergence of data, audio and video on IP networks is changing the way individuals, groups and organizations communicate. This diversity of communication media presents opportunities for creating synergistic collaborative communications. This form of collaborative communication is however not without its challenges. The increasing number of communication service providers coupled with a combinatorial mix of offered services, varying Quality-of-Service and oscillating pricing of services increases the complexity for the user to manage and maintain ‘always best’ priced or performance services. Consumers have to manually manage and adapt their communication in line with differences in services across devices, networks and media while ensuring that the usage remain consistent with their intended goals. This dissertation proposes a novel user-centric approach to address this problem. The proposed approach aims to reduce the aforementioned complexity to the user by (1) providing high-level abstractions and a policy based methodology for automated selection of the communication services guided by high-level user policies and (2) providing services through the seamless integration of multiple communication service providers and providing an extensible framework to support the integration of multiple communication service providers. The approach was implemented in the Communication Virtual Machine (CVM), a model-driven technology for realizing communication applications. The CVM includes the Network Communication Broker, the layer responsible for providing a network-independent API to the upper layers of CVM. The initial prototype for the NCB supported only a single communication framework which limited the number, quality and types of services available. Experimental evaluation of the approach show the additional overhead of the approach is minimal compared to the individual communication services frameworks. Additionally the automated approach proposed out performed the individual communication services frameworks for cross framework switching.

A study on uncertain dynamic disaster management tasks, knowledge sharing, and task performance

Each disaster presents itself with a unique set of characteristics that are hard to determine a priori. Thus disaster management tasks are inherently uncertain, requiring knowledge sharing and quick decision making that involves coordination across different levels and collaborators. While there has been an increasing interest among both researchers and practitioners in utilizing knowledge management to improve disaster management, little research has been reported about how to assess the dynamic nature of disaster management tasks, and what kinds of knowledge sharing are appropriate for different dimensions of task uncertainty characteristics. ^ Using combinations of qualitative and quantitative methods, this research study developed the dimensions and their corresponding measures of the uncertain dynamic characteristics of disaster management tasks and tested the relationships between the various dimensions of uncertain dynamic disaster management tasks and task performance through the moderating and mediating effects of knowledge sharing. ^ Furthermore, this research work conceptualized and assessed task uncertainty along three dimensions: novelty, unanalyzability, and significance; knowledge sharing along two dimensions: knowledge sharing purposes and knowledge sharing mechanisms; and task performance along two dimensions: task effectiveness and task efficiency. Analysis results of survey data collected from Miami-Dade County emergency managers suggested that knowledge sharing purposes and knowledge sharing mechanisms moderate and mediate uncertain dynamic disaster management task and task performance. Implications for research and practice as well directions for future research are discussed.^

Endocrine regulation of dynamic communication signals in gymnotiform fish

Communication signals are shaped by the opposing selection pressures imposed by predators and mates. A dynamic signal might serve as an adaptive compromise between an inconspicuous signal that evades predators and an extravagant signal preferred by females. Such a signal has been described in the gymnotiform electric fish, Brachyhypopomus gauderio, which produces a sexually dimorphic electric organ discharge (EOD). The EOD varies on a circadian rhythm and in response to social cues. This signal plasticity is mediated by the slow action of androgens and rapid action of melanocortins. My dissertation research tested the hypotheses that (1) signal plasticity is related to sociality levels in gymnotiform species, and (2) differences in signal plasticity are regulated by differential sensitivity to androgen and melanocortin hormones. To assess the breadth of dynamic signaling within the order Gymnotiformes, I sampled 13 species from the five gymnotiform families. I recorded EODs to observe spontaneous signal oscillations after which I injected melanocortin hormones, saline control, or presented the fish with a conspecific. I showed that through the co-option of the ancient melanocortin pathway, gymnotiforms dynamically regulate EOD amplitude, spectral frequency, both, or neither. To investigate whether observed EOD plasticities are related to species-specific sociality I tested four species; two territorial, highly aggressive species, Gymnotus carapo and Apteronotus leptorhynchus, a highly gregarious species, Eigenmannia cf. virescens , and an intermediate short-lived species with a fluid social system, Brachyhypopomus gauderio. I examined the relationship between the androgens testosterone and 11-ketotestosterone, the melanocortin α-MSH, and their roles in regulating EOD waveform. I implanted all fish with androgen and blank silicone implants, and injected with α-MSH before and at the peak of implant effect. I found that waveforms of the most territorial and aggressive species were insensitive to hormone treatments; maintaining a static, stereotyped signal that preserves encoding of individual identity. Species with a fluid social system were most responsive to hormone treatments, exhibiting signals that reflect immediate condition and reproductive state. In conclusion, variation in gymnotiform signal plasticity is hormonally regulated and seems to reflect species-specific sociality.

A large-scale dynamic vector and raster data visualization geographic information system based on parallel map tiling

With the exponential increasing demands and uses of GIS data visualization system, such as urban planning, environment and climate change monitoring, weather simulation, hydrographic gauge and so forth, the geospatial vector and raster data visualization research, application and technology has become prevalent. However, we observe that current web GIS techniques are merely suitable for static vector and raster data where no dynamic overlaying layers. While it is desirable to enable visual explorations of large-scale dynamic vector and raster geospatial data in a web environment, improving the performance between backend datasets and the vector and raster applications remains a challenging technical issue. This dissertation is to implement these challenging and unimplemented areas: how to provide a large-scale dynamic vector and raster data visualization service with dynamic overlaying layers accessible from various client devices through a standard web browser, and how to make the large-scale dynamic vector and raster data visualization service as rapid as the static one. To accomplish these, a large-scale dynamic vector and raster data visualization geographic information system based on parallel map tiling and a comprehensive performance improvement solution are proposed, designed and implemented. They include: the quadtree-based indexing and parallel map tiling, the Legend String, the vector data visualization with dynamic layers overlaying, the vector data time series visualization, the algorithm of vector data rendering, the algorithm of raster data re-projection, the algorithm for elimination of superfluous level of detail, the algorithm for vector data gridding and re-grouping and the cluster servers side vector and raster data caching.

Practical dynamic thermal management on Intel desktop computer

Fueled by increasing human appetite for high computing performance, semiconductor technology has now marched into the deep sub-micron era. As transistor size keeps shrinking, more and more transistors are integrated into a single chip. This has increased tremendously the power consumption and heat generation of IC chips. The rapidly growing heat dissipation greatly increases the packaging/cooling costs, and adversely affects the performance and reliability of a computing system. In addition, it also reduces the processor's life span and may even crash the entire computing system. Therefore, dynamic thermal management (DTM) is becoming a critical problem in modern computer system design. Extensive theoretical research has been conducted to study the DTM problem. However, most of them are based on theoretically idealized assumptions or simplified models. While these models and assumptions help to greatly simplify a complex problem and make it theoretically manageable, practical computer systems and applications must deal with many practical factors and details beyond these models or assumptions. The goal of our research was to develop a test platform that can be used to validate theoretical results on DTM under well-controlled conditions, to identify the limitations of existing theoretical results, and also to develop new and practical DTM techniques. This dissertation details the background and our research efforts in this endeavor. Specifically, in our research, we first developed a customized test platform based on an Intel desktop. We then tested a number of related theoretical works and examined their limitations under the practical hardware environment. With these limitations in mind, we developed a new reactive thermal management algorithm for single-core computing systems to optimize the throughput under a peak temperature constraint. We further extended our research to a multicore platform and developed an effective proactive DTM technique for throughput maximization on multicore processor based on task migration and dynamic voltage frequency scaling technique. The significance of our research lies in the fact that our research complements the current extensive theoretical research in dealing with increasingly critical thermal problems and enabling the continuous evolution of high performance computing systems.

Dynamic modeling and analysis of single-stage boost inverters under normal and abnormal conditions

Inverters play key roles in connecting sustainable energy (SE) sources to the local loads and the ac grid. Although there has been a rapid expansion in the use of renewable sources in recent years, fundamental research, on the design of inverters that are specialized for use in these systems, is still needed. Recent advances in power electronics have led to proposing new topologies and switching patterns for single-stage power conversion, which are appropriate for SE sources and energy storage devices. The current source inverter (CSI) topology, along with a newly proposed switching pattern, is capable of converting the low dc voltage to the line ac in only one stage. Simple implementation and high reliability, together with the potential advantages of higher efficiency and lower cost, turns the so-called, single-stage boost inverter (SSBI), into a viable competitor to the existing SE-based power conversion technologies.^ The dynamic model is one of the most essential requirements for performance analysis and control design of any engineering system. Thus, in order to have satisfactory operation, it is necessary to derive a dynamic model for the SSBI system. However, because of the switching behavior and nonlinear elements involved, analysis of the SSBI is a complicated task.^ This research applies the state-space averaging technique to the SSBI to develop the state-space-averaged model of the SSBI under stand-alone and grid-connected modes of operation. Then, a small-signal model is derived by means of the perturbation and linearization method. An experimental hardware set-up, including a laboratory-scaled prototype SSBI, is built and the validity of the obtained models is verified through simulation and experiments. Finally, an eigenvalue sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the stability and dynamic behavior of the SSBI system over a typical range of operation. ^

Temporal Population Genetic Structure of Eastern Mosquitofish in a Dynamic Aquatic Landscape

We analyzed the effect of periodic drying in the Florida Everglades on spatiotemporal population genetic structure of eastern mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki). Severe periodic drying events force individuals from disparate sources to mix in dry season relatively deep-water refuges. In 1996 (a wet year) and 1999 (a dry year), we sampled mosquitofish at 20 dry-season refuges distributed in 3 water management regions and characterized genetic variation for 10 allozyme and 3 microsatellite loci. In 1996, most of the ecosystem did not dry, whereas in 1999, many of our sampling locations were isolated by expanses of dried marsh surface. In 1996, most spatial genetic variation was attributed to heterogeneity within regions. In 1999, spatial genetic variation within regions was not significant. In both years, a small but significant amount of variation (less than 1% of the total variation) was partitioned among regions. Variance was consistently greater than zero among long-hydroperiod sites within a region, but not among short-hydroperiod sites within a region, where hydroperiod was measured as time since last marsh surface dry-down forcing fishes into local refuges. In 1996, all sites were in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. In 1999, we observed fewer heterozygotes than expected for most loci and sites suggesting a Wahlund effect arising from fish leaving areas that dried and mixing in deep-water refuges.