A study of stock market fluctuations and their relation to business conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubblelike deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the nonfundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

A Study of Stock Market Fluctuations and their Relations to Business Conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

Improving performance of a permeable reactive barrier in the degradation of trichloroethylene using ultrasound

The impact of ultrasound on improving the performance of a granular iron Permeable Reactive Barrier (PRB) in the degradation of Trichloroethylene (TCE) was evaluated. Two treatment columns made of clear Plexiglas with a height of 1ft and a diameter of 2 inches and filled with granular iron were used. One was fitted with 25Khz ultrasound probes. A solution of TCE was run through at constant flow rate. Samples obtained from the column at different residence times before and after sonication were analyzed for concentrations of TCE and used to generate concentration profiles to obtain rate constants, which were compared. An improvement of 23.4% in the reaction rate of TCE degradation was observed after sonication of the iron media suggesting that ultrasound may contribute to improving the performance of PRBs in the degradation of TCE in contaminated groundwater.

An analysis of the on-time graduation rate in the two-year program at National Taipei Institute of Technology in Taiwan

Taiwan's technical vocational educational system includes three levels: (1) institutes of technology (two and four year programs), (2) junior colleges (two, three and five year programs), and (3) senior vocational schools. Two-year junior colleges enroll their students through two channels: (1) based on results of the Particular Screening Entrance Examination (PSEE), (2) based on the Joint College Entrance Examination (JCEE). The PSEE has two categories: Category I includes on-time graduates with excellent performance, which means that they are within the top ten of their classes; Category II students include award-winning students in talent contests who have achieved a minimum grade point average of 75%. The JCEE is a regular entrance examination given to any senior vocation school graduate.^ Basic courses have a great impact on the students' academic performance. The purpose of the study was to focus on the effectiveness of teaching mathematics in two-year junior colleges and to analyze and correlate the results of two-year junior college students' performance in calculus and on-time graduation. The target group consisted of 521 students enrolled at National Taipei Institute of Technology in 1993.^ Calculus is a very important course for engineering majors in two-year junior colleges and has a great impact on the students' academic performance. This retrospective study showed that there was a correlation between students' performance in calculus and on-time graduation after two years of study.^ The conclusions of the study urge the Ministry of Education to reform two-year junior college curriculum standards to emphasize basic rudimentary courses. It is recommended that engineering majors receive three hours of calculus per week as the current requirement of only two hours per week is inadequate. The future job market will require a technologically advanced labor force that can be trained in a higher education system. More channels of higher education for two-year junior college graduates should be made available for those wishing to pursue bachelor degrees. Additional work in calculus will not only enhance the opportunities for two-year junior college graduates to continue their pursuit of an advanced academic degree, but also serve them well as they seek career advancement. ^

On arterial contractility, energetic requirements of the cardiovascular system, and the formation of arterial sclerosis

The aorta has been viewed as a passive distribution manifold for blood whose elasticity allows it to store blood during cardiac ejection (systole), and release it during relaxation (diastole). This capacitance, or compliance, lowers peak cardiac work input and maintains peripheral sanguine irrigation throughout the cardiac cycle. The compliance of the human and canine circulatory systems have been described either as constant throughout the cycle (Toy et al. 1985) or as some inverse function of pressure (Li et al. 1990, Cappelo et al. 1995). This work shows that a compliance value that is higher during systole than diastole (equivalent to a direct function of pressure) leads to a reduction in the energetic input to the cardiovascular system (CV), even when accounting for the energy required to change compliance. This conclusion is obtained numerically, based on a 3-element lumped-parameter model of the CV, then demonstrated in a physical model built for the purpose. It is then shown, based on the numerical and physical models, on analytical considerations of elastic tubes, and on the analysis of arterial volume as a function of pressure measured in vivo (Armentano et al. 1995), that the mechanical effects of a presupposed arterial contraction are consistent with those of energetically beneficial changes in compliance during the cardiac cycle. Although the amount of energy potentially saved with rhythmically contracting arteries is small (mean 0.55% for the cases studied) the importance of the phenomenon lies in its possible relation to another function of the arterial smooth muscle (ASM): synthesis of wall matrix macromolecules. It is speculated that a reduction in the rate of collagen synthesis by the ASM is implicated in the formation of arteriosclerosis. ^

Exchange rate overvaluation under hyperinflation: The case of Peru

This dissertation examines the behavior of the exchange rate under two different scenarios. The first one is characterized by, relatively, low inflation or a situation where prices adjust sluggishly. The second is a high inflation economy where prices respond very rapidly even to unanticipated shocks. In the first one, following a monetary expansion, the exchange rate overshoots, i.e. the nominal exchange rate depreciates at a faster pace than the price level. Under high levels of inflation, prices change faster than the exchange rate so the exchange rate undershoots its long run equilibrium value.^ The standard work in this area, Dornbusch (1976), explains the overshooting process in the context of perfect capital mobility and sluggish adjustment in the goods market. A monetary expansion will make the exchange rate increase beyond its long run equilibrium value. This dissertation expands on Dornbusch's model and provides an analysis of the exchange rate under conditions of currency substitution and price flexibility, characteristics of the Peruvian economy during the hyper inflation process that took place at the end of the 1980's. The results of the modified Dornbusch model reveal that, given a monetary expansion, the change in the price level will be larger than the change in the exchange rate if prices react more than proportionally to the monetary shock.^ We will expect this over-reaction in circumstances of high inflation when the velocity of money is increasing very rapidly. Increasing velocity of money, gives rise to a higher relative price variability which in turn contributes to the appearance of new financial (and also non-financial) instruments that report a higher return than the exchange rate, causing people to switch their demand for foreign exchange to this new assets. In the context of currency substitution, economic agents hoard and use foreign exchange as a store of value. The big decline in output originated by hyper inflation induces people to sell this hoarded money to finance current expenses, increasing the supply of foreign exchange in the market. Both, the decrease in demand and the increase in supply reduce the price of foreign exchange i.e. the real exchange rate. The findings mentioned above are tested using Peruvian data for the period January 1985-July 1990, the results of the econometric estimation confirm our findings in the theoretical model. ^

Eden in the age of the fifth sun: The narrative work of Homero Aridjis

Homero Aridjis (b. 1940) is a major Mexican poet, novelist, essayist and ecological activist whose prolific body of work, ranging over forty years and including more than eleven volumes of poetry and thirteen novels, has yet to be studied as a coherent literary corpus in the context of recent Latin American fiction. The purpose of this dissertation was to analyze the narrative works of this author as both illustrative of the changes that have occurred in Latin American fiction since the 1960s when it first burst onto the world scene, as well as to study the uniqueness of this particular author's view of literature as it relates to historical discourse, apocalypticism. and social commitment. ^ Research showed that in the case of the narrative style of Aridjis, major trends in the contemporary Latin American novel were present in such a profuse and model manner as to confirm this author's importance as a prime example of what is commonly known as “Post-Boom” fiction. However, beyond the mere presence of literary elements, this study showed that the author's unique approach to narrative style has altered and expanded the aesthetic and thematic possibilities of the contemporary novel. The area where this is most clearly seen is in his experimentation with the historical genre. By manipulating the referential techniques of what has lately come to be known as the “new historical novel,” Aridjis has written both a cycle of purely historical novels and a cycle of futuristic ones that attempt to transcend the temporal limits traditionally imposed by these narrative forms, fusing them into one constant questioning of the nature of love, hate and identity. In this manner, he has developed a “simultaneist” narrative approach where distinct historical and imagined periods, places, people, things, and texts coexist and interact, widening almost to delirium the interpretative possibilities of the work. ^ This unique view of time and narrative, together with the author's political activism and millenarian view of history, make the novels of Homero Aridjis an important element in understanding the continuing development and evolution of Latin American fiction at the turn of the century. ^

What makes online grocers work? A case study analysis of factors contributing to online grocery store profitability

This research examined the factors contributing to the performance of online grocers prior to, and following, the 2000 dot.com collapse. The primary goals were to assess the relationship between a company’s business model(s) and its performance in the online grocery channel and to determine if there were other company and/or market related factors that could account for company performance. ^ To assess the primary goals, a case based theory building process was utilized. A three-way cross-case analysis comprising Peapod, GroceryWorks, and Tesco examined the common profit components, the structural category (e.g., pure-play, partnership, and hybrid) profit components, and the idiosyncratic profit components related to each specific company. ^ Based on the analysis, it was determined that online grocery store business models could be represented at three distinct, but hierarchically, related levels. The first level was termed the core model and represented the basic profit structure that all online grocers needed in order to conduct operations. The next model level was termed the structural model and represented the profit structure associated with the specific business model configuration (i.e., pure-play, partnership, hybrid). The last model level was termed the augmented model and represented the company’s business model when idiosyncratic profit components were included. In relation to the five company related factors, scalability, rate of expansion, and the automation level were potential candidates for helping to explain online grocer performance. In addition, all the market structure related factors were deemed possible candidates for helping to explain online grocer performance. ^ The study concluded by positing an alternative hypothesis concerning the performance of online grocers. Prior to this study, the prevailing wisdom was that the business models were the primary cause of online grocer performance. However, based on the core model analysis, it was hypothesized that the customer relationship activities (i.e., advertising, promotions, and loyalty program tie-ins) were the real drivers of online grocer performance. ^

Challenge to Managers: Changing Hotel Work from a Secondary Choice to career Development

In his discussion - Challenge To Managers: Changing Hotel Work from a Secondary Choice to Career Development - by Leonidas Chitiris, Lecturer in Management, Piraeus Graduate School of Industrial Studies, Athens, Greece, Chitiris marginally alludes at the outset: “Surveys and interviews with hotel employees in Greece with regard to why individuals work for hotels and to what extent their rationale to join the hotel industry affects hotel productivity revealed that the choice to work in hotels is a secondary preference and reflects the opportunity structure in the economy at any given time and the greater the number of those who work in hotels when there are no other employment opportunities, the less likely the chances for overall improved performance. Given the increase in the proportion of unskilled, unmotivated workers, the level of hotel productivity consequently decreases! The author interprets the findings in terms of the economic and employment conditions in the Greek hotel industry. To enhance the rationale of his thesis statement, Chitiris offers with citation: “Research on initial entry into the labor force has shown that new employees reflect idealized expectations and are frequently not very satisfied with their jobs and roles in the work settings.” Chitiris advances the thought even further by saying: “Research on job satisfaction, motivation, and production purports that management can initiate policies that develop job satisfaction and may improve productivity.” The author outlines components within the general category of the hotel industry to label and quantify exactly why there may be a lag between employee expectations and the delivery of a superior level of service. Please keep in mind that the information for this essay is underpinned by the hotel industry in Greece, exclusively. Demographic information is provided. One example of the many factors parsed in this hotel service discussion is the employee/guest relationship. “The quality of service in hotels is affected to a great extent by the number of guests a hotel employee has to serve,” Chitiris offers. Additionally, Chitiris’ characterization of the typical hotel employee in Greece is not flattering, but it is an informed and representative view of that lodging labor pool. The description in and of itself begs to explain at least some of why the hotel industry in Greece suffers a consequently diminished capacity of superior service. Ill equipped, under-educated, over-worked, and under-paid are how Chitiris describes most employees in the Hellenist hospitality field. Survey based studies, and formulaic indices are used to measure variables related to productivity; the results may be inconclusive industry wide, but are interesting nonetheless. Also, an appealing table gauges the reasons why hotel workers actually employ themselves in the lodging industry. Chirtiris finds that salary expectations do not rate all that high on the motivational chart and are only marginal when related to productivity. In closing, Chirtiris presents a 5-phase development plan hotels should look to in improving performance and productivity at their respective properties.

Increased rate of cholecystectomies performed with doubtful or no indications after laparoscopy introduction: a single center experience

Background During recent years laparoscopic cholecystectomy has dramatically increased, sometimes resulting in overtreatment. Aim of this work was to retrospectively analyze all laparoscopic cholecystectomies performed in a single center in order to find the percentage of patients whose surgical treatment may be explained with this general trend, and to speculate about the possible causes. Methods 831 patients who underwent a laparoscopic cholecystectomy from 1999 to 2008 were retrospectively analyzed. Results At discharge, 43.08% of patients were operated on because of at least one previous episode of biliary colic before the one at admission; 14.08% of patients presented with acute lithiasic cholecystitis; 14.68% were operated on because of an increase in bilirubin level; 1.56% were operated on because of a previous episode of jaundice with normal bilirubin at admission; 0.72% had gallbladder adenomas, 0.72% had cholangitis, 0.36% had biliodigestive fistula and one patient (0.12%) had acalculous cholecystitis. By excluding all these patients, 21.18% were operated on without indications. Conclusions The broadening of indications for laparoscopic cholecystectomy is undisputed and can be considered a consequence of new technologies that have been introduced, increased demand from patients, and the need for practice by inexperienced surgeons. If not prevented, this trend could continue indefinitely.

Exploring calling work orientation: Construct clarity and organizational implications

Employees maintain a personal view toward their work, which can be referred to as their work orientation. Some employees view their work as their life's purpose (i.e., calling work orientation) and they tend to be 1) prosocially motivated, 2) derive meaning from work, and 3) feel that their purpose is from beyond the self. The purpose of the current dissertation was to differentiate calling work orientation from other similar workplace constructs, to investigate the most common covariates of calling work orientation, and to empirically test two possible moderators of the relationship between calling work orientation and work-related outcomes of job satisfaction, job performance, and work engagement. Two independent samples were collected for the purpose of testing hypotheses: data were collected from 520 working students and from 520 non-student employees. Participants from the student sample were recruited at Florida International University, and participants from the employee sample were recruited via the Amazon Mechanical Turk website. Participants from the student sample answered demographic questions and responded to self-report measures of job satisfaction, job performance, work engagement, spirituality, meaningful work, prosocial motivation, and work orientation. The procedure was similar for the employee sample, but their survey also included measures of counterproductive work behaviors, organizational citizenship behaviors, conscientiousness, and numerical ability. Additionally, employees were asked whether they would be willing to have a direct supervisor, peer, co-worker, client, or subordinate rate their job performance. Hierarchical regression findings suggest calling work orientation was predictive of overall job performance above and beyond two common predictors of performance, conscientiousness and numerical ability. The results for the covariate analyses provided evidence that prosocial motivation, meaningful work, and spirituality do play a significant role in the development of an employees' work orientation. Perceived career opportunities moderated the relationship between calling work orientation and job performance for the employee sample. Core self-evaluations moderated the relationship between calling work orientation and job performance, and core self-evaluations moderated the relationship between calling work orientation and work engagement. Collectively, findings from the current study highlight the benefits of examining work orientation in the prediction of workplace outcomes.

Background traffic modeling for large-scale network simulation

Network simulation is an indispensable tool for studying Internet-scale networks due to the heterogeneous structure, immense size and changing properties. It is crucial for network simulators to generate representative traffic, which is necessary for effectively evaluating next-generation network protocols and applications. With network simulation, we can make a distinction between foreground traffic, which is generated by the target applications the researchers intend to study and therefore must be simulated with high fidelity, and background traffic, which represents the network traffic that is generated by other applications and does not require significant accuracy. The background traffic has a significant impact on the foreground traffic, since it competes with the foreground traffic for network resources and therefore can drastically affect the behavior of the applications that produce the foreground traffic. This dissertation aims to provide a solution to meaningfully generate background traffic in three aspects. First is realism. Realistic traffic characterization plays an important role in determining the correct outcome of the simulation studies. This work starts from enhancing an existing fluid background traffic model by removing its two unrealistic assumptions. The improved model can correctly reflect the network conditions in the reverse direction of the data traffic and can reproduce the traffic burstiness observed from measurements. Second is scalability. The trade-off between accuracy and scalability is a constant theme in background traffic modeling. This work presents a fast rate-based TCP (RTCP) traffic model, which originally used analytical models to represent TCP congestion control behavior. This model outperforms other existing traffic models in that it can correctly capture the overall TCP behavior and achieve a speedup of more than two orders of magnitude over the corresponding packet-oriented simulation. Third is network-wide traffic generation. Regardless of how detailed or scalable the models are, they mainly focus on how to generate traffic on one single link, which cannot be extended easily to studies of more complicated network scenarios. This work presents a cluster-based spatio-temporal background traffic generation model that considers spatial and temporal traffic characteristics as well as their correlations. The resulting model can be used effectively for the evaluation work in network studies.

Background Traffic Modeling for Large-Scale Network Simulation

Network simulation is an indispensable tool for studying Internet-scale networks due to the heterogeneous structure, immense size and changing properties. It is crucial for network simulators to generate representative traffic, which is necessary for effectively evaluating next-generation network protocols and applications. With network simulation, we can make a distinction between foreground traffic, which is generated by the target applications the researchers intend to study and therefore must be simulated with high fidelity, and background traffic, which represents the network traffic that is generated by other applications and does not require significant accuracy. The background traffic has a significant impact on the foreground traffic, since it competes with the foreground traffic for network resources and therefore can drastically affect the behavior of the applications that produce the foreground traffic. This dissertation aims to provide a solution to meaningfully generate background traffic in three aspects. First is realism. Realistic traffic characterization plays an important role in determining the correct outcome of the simulation studies. This work starts from enhancing an existing fluid background traffic model by removing its two unrealistic assumptions. The improved model can correctly reflect the network conditions in the reverse direction of the data traffic and can reproduce the traffic burstiness observed from measurements. Second is scalability. The trade-off between accuracy and scalability is a constant theme in background traffic modeling. This work presents a fast rate-based TCP (RTCP) traffic model, which originally used analytical models to represent TCP congestion control behavior. This model outperforms other existing traffic models in that it can correctly capture the overall TCP behavior and achieve a speedup of more than two orders of magnitude over the corresponding packet-oriented simulation. Third is network-wide traffic generation. Regardless of how detailed or scalable the models are, they mainly focus on how to generate traffic on one single link, which cannot be extended easily to studies of more complicated network scenarios. This work presents a cluster-based spatio-temporal background traffic generation model that considers spatial and temporal traffic characteristics as well as their correlations. The resulting model can be used effectively for the evaluation work in network studies.

What Makes Online Grocers Work? A Case Study Analysis of Factors Contributing to Online Grocery Store Profitability

This research examined the factors contributing to the performance of online grocers prior to, and following, the 2000 dot.com collapse. The primary goals were to assess the relationship between a company’s business model(s) and its performance in the online grocery channel and to determine if there were other company and/or market related factors that could account for company performance. To assess the primary goals, a case based theory building process was utilized. A three-way cross-case analysis comprising Peapod, GroceryWorks, and Tesco examined the common profit components, the structural category (e.g., pure-play, partnership, and hybrid) profit components, and the idiosyncratic profit components related to each specific company. Based on the analysis, it was determined that online grocery store business models could be represented at three distinct, but hierarchically, related levels. The first level was termed the core model and represented the basic profit structure that all online grocers needed in order to conduct operations. The next model level was termed the structural model and represented the profit structure associated with the specific business model configuration (i.e., pure-play, partnership, hybrid). The last model level was termed the augmented model and represented the company’s business model when idiosyncratic profit components were included. In relation to the five company related factors, scalability, rate of expansion, and the automation level were potential candidates for helping to explain online grocer performance. In addition, all the market structure related factors were deemed possible candidates for helping to explain online grocer performance. The study concluded by positing an alternative hypothesis concerning the performance of online grocers. Prior to this study, the prevailing wisdom was that the business models were the primary cause of online grocer performance. However, based on the core model analysis, it was hypothesized that the customer relationship activities (i.e., advertising, promotions, and loyalty program tie-ins) were the real drivers of online grocer performance.

Exploring Calling Work Orientation: Construct Clarity and Organizational Implications

Employees maintain a personal view toward their work, which can be referred to as their work orientation. Some employees view their work as their life’s purpose (i.e., calling work orientation) and they tend to be 1) prosocially motivated, 2) derive meaning from work, and 3) feel that their purpose is from beyond the self. The purpose of the current dissertation was to differentiate calling work orientation from other similar workplace constructs, to investigate the most common covariates of calling work orientation, and to empirically test two possible moderators of the relationship between calling work orientation and work-related outcomes of job satisfaction, job performance, and work engagement. Two independent samples were collected for the purpose of testing hypotheses: data were collected from 520 working students and from 520 non-student employees. Participants from the student sample were recruited at Florida International University, and participants from the employee sample were recruited via the Amazon Mechanical Turk website. Participants from the student sample answered demographic questions and responded to self-report measures of job satisfaction, job performance, work engagement, spirituality, meaningful work, prosocial motivation, and work orientation. The procedure was similar for the employee sample, but their survey also included measures of counterproductive work behaviors, organizational citizenship behaviors, conscientiousness, and numerical ability. Additionally, employees were asked whether they would be willing to have a direct supervisor, peer, co-worker, client, or subordinate rate their job performance. Hierarchical regression findings suggest calling work orientation was predictive of overall job performance above and beyond two common predictors of performance, conscientiousness and numerical ability. The results for the covariate analyses provided evidence that prosocial motivation, meaningful work, and spirituality do play a significant role in the development of an employees’ work orientation. Perceived career opportunities moderated the relationship between calling work orientation and job performance for the employee sample. Core self-evaluations moderated the relationship between calling work orientation and job performance, and core self-evaluations moderated the relationship between calling work orientation and work engagement. Collectively, findings from the current study highlight the benefits of examining work orientation in the prediction of workplace outcomes.